Top 25's

[CocoHusky]

Tennessee is somewhere in Top 15 until Diamond gets healthy. Once she gets back in playing shape, they shouldn't drop below #5.

Any news, projections on Diamond's recovery?

 

[mtsuraider06]

Personally, I don't think she will be ready by November. I could be wrong, but since she hasn't been cleared for on court work, only workouts, I'm thinking December.

 

[BlueDevils]

Personally, I don't think she will be ready by November. I could be wrong, but since she hasn't been cleared for on court work, only workouts, I'm thinking December.

WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!! Diamond is seriously injured? I was under the impression she would be ready by Game 1... Could be that I don't really follow any SEC womens basketball team closely since Pat, S.Augustus, and Fowles left.

 

[Orangutan]

If you go back through the pre-season rankings Tenn has been consistently ranked above Notre Dame and when the FF rolled around Notre Dame has been there while Tenn hasn't even made it once. This year the hype over the LV's is be the addition of Russell and DeShields, neither of whom have been to one FF and both of whom are returning after injuries. Notre Dame has lost some great players over the last 4 years or so and have still found their way to the FF every year. Is losing Loyd any bigger a hit than losing Diggins?

In the last 7 years there have been 28 FF slots. The SEC has filled exactly one. When is someone going to point out that the emperor has on no clothes?

It's actually close to the exact same. In both cases, ND returns 4 starters. If they start Ogunbowale at SG (my guess), it will also be the same in that a freshman will take the starting spot.

 

[mtsuraider06]

WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!! Diamond is seriously injured? I was under the impression she would be ready by Game 1... Could be that I don't really follow any SEC womens basketball team closely since Pat, S.Augustus, and Fowles left.

She is still having issues with her legs from her time at UNC, and high school to some extent. She has also developed shin splints.

Could she play right now...yes. Should she...no. That's why she isn't being cleared.

 

[Orangutan]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

 

[USFMB]

Is Mississippi State so good to be #8?​

I doubt they are that good.

USF plays them on 12/30 in Jacksonville, Fl.

Of course, as a USF fan, I'm biased, but I just don't see Miss St as a favorite in that game.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

 

[triaddukefan]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

Sounds like South Florida

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

We will definitely miss Welch's leadership; I liked Ibiam, personally, but we won't really miss her on the court. We will have a much more talented starting 5 this season and still have some strength off the bench.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

And they only had to play South Carolina and Tennessee only once in conference, losing both by double digits. They played nobody good in non conference games.

 

[arty155]

If you go back through the pre-season rankings Tenn has been consistently ranked above Notre Dame and when the FF rolled around Notre Dame has been there while Tenn hasn't even made it once...
In the last 7 years there have been 28 FF slots. The SEC has filled exactly one. When is someone going to point out that the emperor has on no clothes?

 

[USFMB]

Sounds like South Florida.

Their records are very similar.

Sagarin had USF #16.
Sagarin had Miss St #20.

USF was 0-6 against his top 25, but three of those losses were to #1 UCONN.

The other three were t0: #4 Maryland (by double digits), #7 Louisville and #21 Kentucky, (both by single digits).

So five of the six were against top 10 teams.

USF was 3-0 against top 50 teams: #28 Oklahoma, #46 Chatanooga and #50 LSU.

I don't know how much Miss St is expected to improve ths season.

I do know that USF should be better, by bringing back all its starters and seven of its eight top scorers. In addition, USF brought in at least one impact player who is expected to break into the starting lineup at some point this season.

That's why I don't consider Miss St a favorite in their upcoming game.

 

[Nuyoika]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

They make a living off of offensive rebounds so losing Welch might hurt a bit. Certainly more than Ibiam. I don't think they will be as good defensively, but their offense should be a bit better. I don't expect a huge jump though this year. I honestly only see Coates and Wilson getting maybe 5 more minutes a game on average. I think they end up doing pretty much the same as what they did last year.

 

[Orangutan]

They make a living off of offensive rebounds so losing Welch might hurt a bit. Certainly more than Ibiam. I don't think they will be as good defensively, but their offense should be a bit better. I don't expect a huge jump though this year. I honestly only see Coates and Wilson getting maybe 5 more minutes a game on average. I think they end up doing pretty much the same as what they did last year.

Rebound rates (per wbb state):
Welch - 15.1%
Ibiam - 13.9%
Wilson - 20.1%
Coates - 22.9%
Imovbioh - 20.6%

Wilson, Coates and Imovbioh are all better rebounders than Welch and Ibiam. And that might undersell Imovbioh's rebounding because WBB state doesn't have her rebound rate for last year so I used her 13-14 numbers. She led the ACC with 10.8 rebound per game vs. 8.2 in 13-14

They only people they lost were forwards and the forwards they have now are better anyway, so I think they will better just based on the natural progression of their players. Cuevas and White, especially have big potential and should make a bigger impact as sophomores.

I also think they will do pretty much what they did last year. What they did last year was come within a fluky Madison Cable putback (I mean, I love Maddie for crashing the boards but it was lucky that Jewell's airball fell right into her hands) of making the national championship game. So making the NC game against UConn (what I think they'll do this year) *is* pretty much the same as what they did last year.

 

[Nuyoika]

Rebound rates (per wbb state):
Welch - 15.1%
Ibiam - 13.9%
Wilson - 20.1%
Coates - 22.9%
Imovbioh - 20.6%

Wilson, Coates and Imovbioh are all better rebounders than Welch and Ibiam. And that might undersell Imovbioh's rebounding because WBB state doesn't have her rebound rate for last year so I used her 13-14 numbers. She led the ACC with 10.8 rebound per game vs. 8.2 in 13-14

They only people they lost were forwards and the forwards they have now are better anyway, so I think they will better just based on the natural progression of their players. Cuevas and White, especially have big potential and should make a bigger impact as sophomores.

I also think they will do pretty much what they did last year. What they did last year was come within a fluky Madison Cable putback (I mean, I love Maddie for crashing the boards but it was lucky that Jewell's airball fell right into her hands) of making the national championship game. So making the NC game against UConn (what I think they'll do this year) *is* pretty much the same as what they did last year.

On the year Welch was third on the team with 241 rebounds. She lead the team in offensive rebounds with 107. The next closest was Wilson who had only 2 more rebounds than her overall on the year. I think Wilson wants to play the 3 so I'm not sure her rebounds go up at all this year if Dawn decides to play her there. As for what Cable did, it had to be destined. SCar had 13 free throw attempts in the second half, they had all the momentum in the world, ND was on a 7.5 minute scoring drought and SCar still lost. ND practically gave them the game on a silver platter. Like I said this year will probably be pretty similar to last year for them. The only question is how does the rest of the field look?

 

[TerpWomenFan]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

 

[stwainfan]

I am looking forward to the South Carolina at Tennessee game.

 

[Nuyoika]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

I can't put SCar over ND or Baylor until they beat them. They have beaten TN but I honestly don't know if they can beat TN twice this year. I say they should be Top 5 all year but more in the 3 - 5 range.

 

[Orangutan]

On the year Welch was third on the team with 241 rebounds. She lead the team in offensive rebounds with 107. The next closest was Wilson who had only 2 more rebounds than her overall on the year. I think Wilson wants to play the 3 so I'm not sure her rebounds go up at all this year if Dawn decides to play her there. As for what Cable did, it had to be destined. SCar had 13 free throw attempts in the second half, they had all the momentum in the world, ND was on a 7.5 minute scoring drought and SCar still lost. ND practically gave them the game on a silver platter. Like I said this year will probably be pretty similar to last year for them. The only question is how does the rest of the field look?

Welch also played 239 minutes more than Wilson, which is why I used rebound rate. I'll give you that she was a disproportionately good offensive rebounder. On the other hand, she killed their spacing and couldn't shoot free throws, so I still think they are better offensively without her.

Regarding Wilson wanting to play the 3, they only really have Coates, Wilson, Imovbioh and White for the post. Maybe they can play with some big lineups that let her play 3 but she'll have to play mostly 4 just based on depth.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

I can't put SCar over ND or Baylor until they beat them. They have beaten TN but I honestly don't know if they can beat TN twice this year. I say they should be Top 5 all year but more in the 3 - 5 range.

This is why I never place Maryland over Notre Dame

 

[Nuyoika]

Welch also played 239 minutes more than Wilson, which is why I used rebound rate. I'll give you that she was a disproportionately good offensive rebounder. On the other hand, she killed their spacing and couldn't shoot free throws, so I still think they are better offensively without her.

Regarding Wilson wanting to play the 3, they only really have Coates, Wilson, Imovbioh and White for the post. Maybe they can play with some big lineups that let her play 3 but she'll have to play mostly 4 just based on depth.

I think the offense will be better but I'm not really sure by how much. They didn't shoot well vs ranked opponents last year and I'm not sure that having Wilson and Coates play more minutes will change that greatly. I get the feeling it'll be a trade off. They will score a little more and so will their opponents and then they will run into a ranked team and it'll be the same thing as last year. Those kinds of improvements take more than 1 year and a change in a couple of players. I think they need a bit of process change altogether to get to the next step. Also, how does the spacing get any better this year? The name of the game there is pound it in the post. I'm not sure who is suppose to be spacing the floor for them really.

 

[Nuyoika]

This is why I never place Maryland over Notre Dame

Logic is best.

 

[Orangutan]

I think the offense will be better but I'm not really sure by how much. They didn't shoot well vs ranked opponents last year and I'm not sure that having Wilson and Coates play more minutes will change that greatly. I get the feeling it'll be a trade off. They will score a little more and so will their opponents and then they will run into a ranked team and it'll be the same thing as last year. Those kinds of improvements take more than 1 year and a change in a couple of players. I think they need a bit of process change altogether to get to the next step.

I think I believe more in their young players than you do. I think A'ja Wilson could be the next NPOY (after Stewart wins again this year). It's not only those two playing more minutes. It's both of them playing more minutes AND playing better than last year.

We will see. I have no particular affection for SC, so I wouldn't mind being wrong.

 

[Nuyoika]

I think I believe more in their young players than you do. I think A'ja Wilson could be the next NPOY (after Stewart wins again this year). It's not only those two playing more minutes. It's both of them playing more minutes AND playing better than last year.

We will see. I have no particular affection for SC, so I wouldn't mind being wrong.

It's not that I have no belief in them. They made it to the FF. They should expect to make it there again. The problem is I feel like other teams will improve more than they will this year. I think everyone is pretty sure about the Top 1 - 5. Of the 5 SCar is still the wild card. All the other teams are proven championship teams and SCar isn't. An elite team shouldn't spend so many games playing from behind. Maybe the line up will fix that maybe not. All I'm saying is if your shooting percentage drops 10% when you play ranked teams I don't think changing the line up will matter. That's a mental product. That means to me that typically you are playing down to the level of your opponent and when you meet an equally talented opponent you struggle. They showed resilience last year. When does that get old though? When do you want to go from just getting by with wins to true execution? That is what they are missing. I say let me give them the eye test vs a ranked opponent and see if they improve.

 

[Bestiarius]

Tenn will get a high initial ranking like they do most every year. They play their first 5 games at home, facing one team that was ranked at the end of last year, Texas. Last time I saw Texas I was sitting in my seat in Albany, feeling sorry for their fans. And after losing in Austin last year the LV's should be pumped for revenge at TBA. Most teams lose a game or two before the new year so they shouldn't fall much even if they lose a couple.

Like most teams, Tenn has but a couple of elite level games, At Notre Dame and at home to S Carolina, and a few near-elite level games against Kentucky, Stanford & Oregon St. I might also throw Miss St into that group. Those six games will decide whether they are ranked in the top 4 or in the top 14. If Russell, Graves & DeShields stay healthy they should be a lot closer to 4 and will get another one seed, their third in 3 years. If even one of them goes down they are in trouble. If all three stay healthy they could get past the regionals.

It's a lot easier to get a high ranking if a team doesn't play UConn. If TN played a home and home series the past 7 or so years, they could have added 14 additional losses to their record.

 

[USFMB]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

 

[Alydar]

All the other teams are proven championship teams and SCar isn't.

Not really unless you go back to before any of the current rosters were playing. Next April will be the 8th aniversity of Tenn's last championship. I don't think anyone's left from Baylor's last NC. Same for the rest except UConn. Even Notre Dame, in both years that they beat UConn in the FF semi's they had a letdown in the NC game.

An elite team shouldn't spend so many games playing from behind. .... That means to me that typically you are playing down to the level of your opponent and when you meet an equally talented opponent you struggle.

Great point. It also applies to Tenn., a team that has lost several games to weak teams and who also typically has 3 or 4 games a year against mediocre teams in which they play poorly, even though they end up winning most of them. That catches up to you in the NCAA's, where once you reach the regionals you need four straight games where any letdown leads to a ticket home. I think the reason we have seen both Notre Dame and UConn in the FF for so many straight years is that both coaches emphasize playing 40 minutes. No letdowns allowed despite the level of the competition. It pays off in April.

This year it will be hard to judge Baylor since they really have no elite level games other than perhaps Texas. Their weak schedule may cost them a one seed but I wouldn't want them in my regional if I was a one seed.

 

[USFMB]

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

The 15 minute time allotted for editing my previous post expired, and I wanted to add something.

At the WNIT site, they have a link to a USF page and I just noticed a new introduction video from Freshman Kitija Laska. She has a good deal of international experience and we are expecting her to be an impact player for us from the outset.

USF Women's Basketball
5 hrs
Our talented freshman Kitija Laksa, would like to introduce herself! Get to know her here, then come cheer her on in the Sun Dome this season!

You can watch her video on the page to this link.

http://www.womensnit.com/south-florida.html

She might very well be the difference maker for us in games against top 25 teams this season.

So, if I seem a little excited about USF WBB this year, I must confesss...I am!!!

 

[Alydar]

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

Likely they will drop but as those in front of them lose they will climb back up to the top 5 by New Years, as long as they don't lose another. A team that gets an initial high ranking won't move down unless they lose. Last year Georgia was a perfect example. They won 12 straight early against a bunch of really weak programs and got as high as 13th. Once they had to play conference games it became clear they were living on their name and they sank out of the rankings, but it took 2 months. In the meantime a lot of schools got to claim a bogus top 25 win.

That's why I prefer analytic rankings like Massey. They aren't perfect either but they do a lot better job than the AP or Coach's polls. Or even the RPI for that matter.