Top 25's

[UcMiami]

Lexi missing from MD may be painful for them as she was their clear leader - they have talent, but ...

With so many teams having seriously weak OOC schedules it is often hard to determine what is really going on until mid to late January amongst the 5-20 teams, and with the expansion in size of the major conferences leading to fewer home and homes in conference, even conference play can be misleading.

I think the SEC benefits in opinion polls from the inconsistency of teams below the TN/SC top end - it makes all the middle teams look stronger than they are because say a KY wins one game against LSU that just lost to a Miss State that had beaten KY two weeks earlier - so all three teams suddenly have a 'good' win, which always ranks higher in opinion than saying instead all three teams now have a 'bad' loss.

 

[mtsuraider06]

Tennessee is somewhere in Top 15 until Diamond gets healthy. Once she gets back in playing shape, they shouldn't drop below #5.

 

[BlueDevils]

Keep sleeping on our team-Stanford

 

[Alydar]

Tennessee is somewhere in Top 15 until Diamond gets healthy. Once she gets back in playing shape, they shouldn't drop below #5.

Tenn will get a high initial ranking like they do most every year. They play their first 5 games at home, facing one team that was ranked at the end of last year, Texas. Last time I saw Texas I was sitting in my seat in Albany, feeling sorry for their fans. And after losing in Austin last year the LV's should be pumped for revenge at TBA. Most teams lose a game or two before the new year so they shouldn't fall much even if they lose a couple.

Like most teams, Tenn has but a couple of elite level games, At Notre Dame and at home to S Carolina, and a few near-elite level games against Kentucky, Stanford & Oregon St. I might also throw Miss St into that group. Those six games will decide whether they are ranked in the top 4 or in the top 14. If Russell, Graves & DeShields stay healthy they should be a lot closer to 4 and will get another one seed, their third in 3 years. If even one of them goes down they are in trouble. If all three stay healthy they could get past the regionals.

 

[CocoHusky]

Way before UConn played them I wasn't impressed. The UConn game certainly didn't help. I believe they got some first place votes last year as well.

I was very impresed by Texas early on. The team started out 14:0 and had wins over Stanford, Tennessee, & Texas A&M all before Christmas.
The wheels didn't start to come off for Texas until the Atkins injury in December and by the time of the Enemkpali injury (Baylor game Jan 9th) the team went into full nose dive because those are arguably Texas two best players. Enemkpali was having an AA caliber season up until the injury.

 

[CocoHusky]

Tennessee is somewhere in Top 15 until Diamond gets healthy. Once she gets back in playing shape, they shouldn't drop below #5.

Any news, projections on Diamond's recovery?

 

[mtsuraider06]

Personally, I don't think she will be ready by November. I could be wrong, but since she hasn't been cleared for on court work, only workouts, I'm thinking December.

 

[BlueDevils]

Personally, I don't think she will be ready by November. I could be wrong, but since she hasn't been cleared for on court work, only workouts, I'm thinking December.

WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!! Diamond is seriously injured? I was under the impression she would be ready by Game 1... Could be that I don't really follow any SEC womens basketball team closely since Pat, S.Augustus, and Fowles left.

 

[Orangutan]

If you go back through the pre-season rankings Tenn has been consistently ranked above Notre Dame and when the FF rolled around Notre Dame has been there while Tenn hasn't even made it once. This year the hype over the LV's is be the addition of Russell and DeShields, neither of whom have been to one FF and both of whom are returning after injuries. Notre Dame has lost some great players over the last 4 years or so and have still found their way to the FF every year. Is losing Loyd any bigger a hit than losing Diggins?

In the last 7 years there have been 28 FF slots. The SEC has filled exactly one. When is someone going to point out that the emperor has on no clothes?

It's actually close to the exact same. In both cases, ND returns 4 starters. If they start Ogunbowale at SG (my guess), it will also be the same in that a freshman will take the starting spot.

 

[mtsuraider06]

WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!! Diamond is seriously injured? I was under the impression she would be ready by Game 1... Could be that I don't really follow any SEC womens basketball team closely since Pat, S.Augustus, and Fowles left.

She is still having issues with her legs from her time at UNC, and high school to some extent. She has also developed shin splints.

Could she play right now...yes. Should she...no. That's why she isn't being cleared.

 

[Orangutan]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

 

[USFMB]

Is Mississippi State so good to be #8?​

I doubt they are that good.

USF plays them on 12/30 in Jacksonville, Fl.

Of course, as a USF fan, I'm biased, but I just don't see Miss St as a favorite in that game.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

 

[triaddukefan]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

Sounds like South Florida

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

We will definitely miss Welch's leadership; I liked Ibiam, personally, but we won't really miss her on the court. We will have a much more talented starting 5 this season and still have some strength off the bench.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Mississippi State was 0-5 against Sagarin's top-25 last season, 27-2 against everyone else. Seems pretty telling.

And they only had to play South Carolina and Tennessee only once in conference, losing both by double digits. They played nobody good in non conference games.

 

[arty155]

If you go back through the pre-season rankings Tenn has been consistently ranked above Notre Dame and when the FF rolled around Notre Dame has been there while Tenn hasn't even made it once...
In the last 7 years there have been 28 FF slots. The SEC has filled exactly one. When is someone going to point out that the emperor has on no clothes?

 

[USFMB]

Sounds like South Florida.

Their records are very similar.

Sagarin had USF #16.
Sagarin had Miss St #20.

USF was 0-6 against his top 25, but three of those losses were to #1 UCONN.

The other three were t0: #4 Maryland (by double digits), #7 Louisville and #21 Kentucky, (both by single digits).

So five of the six were against top 10 teams.

USF was 3-0 against top 50 teams: #28 Oklahoma, #46 Chatanooga and #50 LSU.

I don't know how much Miss St is expected to improve ths season.

I do know that USF should be better, by bringing back all its starters and seven of its eight top scorers. In addition, USF brought in at least one impact player who is expected to break into the starting lineup at some point this season.

That's why I don't consider Miss St a favorite in their upcoming game.

 

[Nuyoika]

To me, South Carolina is a very clear #2. They will get better just by playing Wilson and Coates more. I don't even think losing Welch and Ibiam will hurt. Imovbioh is a solid player and Jatarie White is a HS AA that could make a big leap in year two. They have arguably the best SG in the country in Mitchell.

There's all this talk about DeShields and Russell giving Tenn. a star post and star guard they didn't have last year. Even if you could guarantee me the health of DeShields and Russell, I would still take Coates and Mitchell. But maybe if those two live up to the hype, they'll be at best just slightly better than Coates and Mitchell. So maybe we can (generously) call that a wash.

I haven't mentioned A'ja Wilson yet, who is probably the best talent of the 5. In her last game, she put up 20 pts (8-11 FG), 9 reb, 4 blocks in 24 minutes in Final Four game.

They make a living off of offensive rebounds so losing Welch might hurt a bit. Certainly more than Ibiam. I don't think they will be as good defensively, but their offense should be a bit better. I don't expect a huge jump though this year. I honestly only see Coates and Wilson getting maybe 5 more minutes a game on average. I think they end up doing pretty much the same as what they did last year.

 

[Orangutan]

They make a living off of offensive rebounds so losing Welch might hurt a bit. Certainly more than Ibiam. I don't think they will be as good defensively, but their offense should be a bit better. I don't expect a huge jump though this year. I honestly only see Coates and Wilson getting maybe 5 more minutes a game on average. I think they end up doing pretty much the same as what they did last year.

Rebound rates (per wbb state):
Welch - 15.1%
Ibiam - 13.9%
Wilson - 20.1%
Coates - 22.9%
Imovbioh - 20.6%

Wilson, Coates and Imovbioh are all better rebounders than Welch and Ibiam. And that might undersell Imovbioh's rebounding because WBB state doesn't have her rebound rate for last year so I used her 13-14 numbers. She led the ACC with 10.8 rebound per game vs. 8.2 in 13-14

They only people they lost were forwards and the forwards they have now are better anyway, so I think they will better just based on the natural progression of their players. Cuevas and White, especially have big potential and should make a bigger impact as sophomores.

I also think they will do pretty much what they did last year. What they did last year was come within a fluky Madison Cable putback (I mean, I love Maddie for crashing the boards but it was lucky that Jewell's airball fell right into her hands) of making the national championship game. So making the NC game against UConn (what I think they'll do this year) *is* pretty much the same as what they did last year.

 

[Nuyoika]

Rebound rates (per wbb state):
Welch - 15.1%
Ibiam - 13.9%
Wilson - 20.1%
Coates - 22.9%
Imovbioh - 20.6%

Wilson, Coates and Imovbioh are all better rebounders than Welch and Ibiam. And that might undersell Imovbioh's rebounding because WBB state doesn't have her rebound rate for last year so I used her 13-14 numbers. She led the ACC with 10.8 rebound per game vs. 8.2 in 13-14

They only people they lost were forwards and the forwards they have now are better anyway, so I think they will better just based on the natural progression of their players. Cuevas and White, especially have big potential and should make a bigger impact as sophomores.

I also think they will do pretty much what they did last year. What they did last year was come within a fluky Madison Cable putback (I mean, I love Maddie for crashing the boards but it was lucky that Jewell's airball fell right into her hands) of making the national championship game. So making the NC game against UConn (what I think they'll do this year) *is* pretty much the same as what they did last year.

On the year Welch was third on the team with 241 rebounds. She lead the team in offensive rebounds with 107. The next closest was Wilson who had only 2 more rebounds than her overall on the year. I think Wilson wants to play the 3 so I'm not sure her rebounds go up at all this year if Dawn decides to play her there. As for what Cable did, it had to be destined. SCar had 13 free throw attempts in the second half, they had all the momentum in the world, ND was on a 7.5 minute scoring drought and SCar still lost. ND practically gave them the game on a silver platter. Like I said this year will probably be pretty similar to last year for them. The only question is how does the rest of the field look?

 

[TerpWomenFan]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

 

[stwainfan]

I am looking forward to the South Carolina at Tennessee game.

 

[Nuyoika]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

I can't put SCar over ND or Baylor until they beat them. They have beaten TN but I honestly don't know if they can beat TN twice this year. I say they should be Top 5 all year but more in the 3 - 5 range.

 

[Orangutan]

On the year Welch was third on the team with 241 rebounds. She lead the team in offensive rebounds with 107. The next closest was Wilson who had only 2 more rebounds than her overall on the year. I think Wilson wants to play the 3 so I'm not sure her rebounds go up at all this year if Dawn decides to play her there. As for what Cable did, it had to be destined. SCar had 13 free throw attempts in the second half, they had all the momentum in the world, ND was on a 7.5 minute scoring drought and SCar still lost. ND practically gave them the game on a silver platter. Like I said this year will probably be pretty similar to last year for them. The only question is how does the rest of the field look?

Welch also played 239 minutes more than Wilson, which is why I used rebound rate. I'll give you that she was a disproportionately good offensive rebounder. On the other hand, she killed their spacing and couldn't shoot free throws, so I still think they are better offensively without her.

Regarding Wilson wanting to play the 3, they only really have Coates, Wilson, Imovbioh and White for the post. Maybe they can play with some big lineups that let her play 3 but she'll have to play mostly 4 just based on depth.