Too early 2018-19 Rankings

[MilfordHusky]

I think top 10 is realistic, but no longer 2 or 3.

 

[Centerstream]

I think top 10 is realistic, but no longer 2 or 3.

You must be an optimist, me, a pessimist.

 

[MilfordHusky]

We'll have 2 of the top 5 players in the country and one of the best PGs, but, once again, we'll be small. And not deep.

Megan, Christyn, and Olivia will have to play to get 5 people on the floor.

 

[bbballfan23]

1. ND
2. Baylor
3. UConn
4. Oregon

Losing Z hurts but look at the core 3 of Samuelson, Collier & Dangerfield. Lou & Pheesa will be 2 of the top 4 off the board in the WNBA draft next April.

 

[Dillon77]

1. Notre Dame-this will be one of Notre Dame's most talented rosters ever. The starting 5 will likely be 4 seniors (Turner, Shepard, Ogunbowale, Mabrey) and 1 junior (Young). If they can stay healthy, they'll be very very good. And if they have injuries, they'll still be very very good knowing Muffet. Adding in Turner means Shepard can move to the high post which brings a whole new dimension to the roster.

2. UCONN-another stacked roster for UCONN comes in. A starting 5 of Stevens, Collier, KLS, Walker and Dangerfield give them AA threats at every position. Add in the #1 recruit to spot the guards and the #5 recruit to spot the posts and you have arguably the most dangerous team in the country. The biggest question mark will be on the defensive side now that Nurse and Williams are gone. Can they beat

3. Oregon-I still think they're a year away from being a title favorite, but a Final Four should be the expectation next year. Everyone but Bando returns, plus they bring in an exceptional shooter in Erin Boley. The trio of Sabally, Ionescu and Hebard will give opposing coaches nightmares.

4. Baylor-Kalani Brown will be a POY favorite next year and Cox should be an All American. Those two alone should make Baylor a title threat. Their major loss is outstanding PG Kristy Wallace but they have a nice freshman PG in Morris. They bring in a monster class that will require a lot of juggling by Mulkey to keep everyone happy (see Texas this year). Baylor has been a notorious underachiever for 6 straight years now....can they finally break the Final Four curse in Brown's last year?

5. Louisville-Asia Durr is back along with her entire team sans Hines-Allen. The frontcourt will be fine with Fuerhing and Shook. Their trio of guards (Jones/Carter/Evans) have huge upside and could make Louisville a contender if they can consistently finish shots like they did in the semifinals. This season was by far the best coaching job of Walz's career, I'm curious to see if he can keep it up.

6. Mississippi State-I might be overhyping them, but what they lose in talent they make up for in exceptional coaching...and they have Teaira McCowan, who might be the best big girl in the country next season. They have 2 strong guards back in Danbury and Holmes, and I'd also look for Bibby to step in as a starter. They need someone to emerge as a perimeter scoring threat who can get their own shot, but I don't see Mississippi State completely falling out of the mix.

7. Texas-On paper this team is the 2nd most talented in the country after UCONN. 7 top 10 kids plus Prince who was #12. They have a ton of question marks though. How will Sutton or Patterson step up at PG and replace McCarty? Will Boothe be back? Can Holmes return to freshman form after a tough sophomore year? How does Karen distribute front court minutes? I expect Texas to be streaky like they've been the last several years. When they play well, they are capable of beating anyone, but when they play lazy, they can lose to some bad teams.

8. Maryland-they were a better team this year than I expected. For all the flack she gets, Brenda is actually a pretty good coach. Everyone is back besides Confroy, and they bring in the #3 recruit in Shakira Austin who should stabilize the frontcourt. Kaila Charles is VERY good.

9. Oregon State-I think Rueck is one of the best coaches in the country and he has Slocum on the team and a top 10 recruit coming in. They also return everyone but Gulich from this year's team. I'd look for them to give Oregon a run for their money in the PAC.

10. Texas A&M-they lose Hillsman which is significant but they return Howard, Williams and Carter.


Teams in potential free fall include:

Tennessee-they sign another top 5 class but they lose their 2 best players and have Holly coaching. That's scary.

South Carolina-they were a pretty bad team without Wilson last year and she'll be gone. The lack of perimeter shooting and consistent play is a big red flag.

Duke-they lose their top 2 players and I don't see anyone waiting in the wings to make up the massive void left by Brown/Greenwell.

Ohio State-if they finish in the top half of the Big Ten, I'll be impressed. McGuff just wasted 4 years with Kelsey Mitchell (and 2 with Mavunga/Harper).....they likely plummet out of the national picture.

UCLA-no Final Fours for their #1 recruiting class, they still haven't talent but I don't expect to see them in any Final Four discussions next year.

Bballnut: Nicely thought-out and put-together preview. I was a little preoccupied this weekend but I'd like to add a few points or there to your summary. Not even going to question the rankings per se, but just a question/add a few points.
Thanks for doing this.

- Notre Dame. In addition to everything you brought up, they have Mik Vaughn -- who played well in her six games before being injured -- coming back. Mik will probably learn from and back up Bri Turner. They have very similar builds and attack the game in a somewhat similar manner, so that will be a win-win. ND will also have a true point guard, Jordan Nixon. Given how well the troika of Mabrey-Ogunbowale-Young worked together, I suspect they'll work Nixon into a rotation and used a lot to counter ball pressure on Mabrey.

- UConn. Big question: Does Stevens come back? If so, she and O N-O will be a formidable post presence.

- Oregon: Sabrina Ionescu certainly looked like she was processing what went right and wrong against ND. A lot of the "uggh" stuff was regarding rebounding and it's up to her forwards to take board washing to another level.

- Baylor. I don't think most freshman walk into situations with top-flight teams but I could see Aquire DeCosta starting as a wing for Baylor with Cox and Brown and doing major damage, in par because of the attention those two posts will demand.

- Louisville: Not so sure Fuerhing and Shook make up for one of them and Hines-Allen, who was a very good athlete. I don't either of those two are at the same level and I don't see a lot more depth at forward. Won't afffect them most of the time, but against top-tier teams, it will.

- MSU. Where does the offense start? McCowan finishes or puts back. Is there a Vivians in the bunch? Also need to help her out on the boards...start Bibby.

- Maryland: If her knee recovers well, Blair Watson -- who was Marylad's second leading scorer before getting injured -- will join with Charles for a nice one-two punch. Austin is frosting, but I think Oliva Owens is the cake and will contribute solid rebounding as a frosh.

- Oregon State. 6'8" center Joanna Grymek from Poland takes over from Marie Gulich for one year and she's aided and abetted by two very tall, need-to-be refined frosh centers: 6'7" Patricia Morris and 6'9" Andrea Aquino. Don't think either will impact much as frosh, but keep an eye on Aquino going forward. Slocum will have a great effect on this team, too, but they're used to having an anchor of a very good center.

- Texas A&M. Should she stay or should see go?

Agree with most of your free-fall picks. How about possible Moving-up Teams:

- Syracuse. The myriad collection of domestic and international talent continues to get better, possibly much better with 6'2" French guard Kadiatou Sissoko and 6'2" New Yorker Emily Engstler at wing. If Coach Q has gotten the right ingredients, look for him to stir them up over the course of the season.

- Iowa. The marvelously efficient Megan Gustafson is back in the post, as are top two scoring guards Kathleen Doyle and MaKenzie Morris. Solid coaching and a team that should gain from a solid year in 2017-18.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke should finish in the top 10.


of the ACC

 

[Vowelguy]

Revised in light of AZ's departure and further thought

1. Notre Dame - Return 4 of 5 starters + add 2 injured Fs + 2 top 20 HS recruits
2. Oregon - Ionescu & Hebard return. Lose Bando but add transfer Boley.
3. Baylor - Lose Kristy Wallace & Cohen but Brown, Cox, Morris back + THREE top 5 HS
4. UConn - Big losses of GW & KN but return 4 of 6
   
5. Louisville - Lose Hines-Allen but rest back.
6. Oregon St - Lose Gulich but add Slocum
7. Texas - Lose top 2 but next 4 our back + 2 top 10 HS.
8. Mizzou - Return 5 of top 6
9. Maryland - Return 4 of 5 starters + top 15 HS
10. Arizona St - Everyone back.

Next -- Georgia, Miss St, NC State, So Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, West Virginia

 

[bballnut90]

Bballnut: Nicely thought-out and put-together preview. I was a little preoccupied this weekend but I'd like to add a few points or there to your summary. Not even going to question the rankings per se, but just a question/add a few points.
Thanks for doing this.

- Notre Dame. In addition to everything you brought up, they have Mik Vaughn -- who played well in her six games before being injured -- coming back. Mik will probably learn from and back up Bri Turner. They have very similar builds and attack the game in a somewhat similar manner, so that will be a win-win. ND will also have a true point guard, Jordan Nixon. Given how well the troika of Mabrey-Ogunbowale-Young worked together, I suspect they'll work Nixon into a rotation and used a lot to counter ball pressure on Mabrey.

- UConn. Big question: Does Stevens come back? If so, she and O N-O will be a formidable post presence.

- Oregon: Sabrina Ionescu certainly looked like she was processing what went right and wrong against ND. A lot of the "uggh" stuff was regarding rebounding and it's up to her forwards to take board washing to another level.

- Baylor. I don't think most freshman walk into situations with top-flight teams but I could see Aquire DeCosta starting as a wing for Baylor with Cox and Brown and doing major damage, in par because of the attention those two posts will demand.

- Louisville: Not so sure Fuerhing and Shook make up for one of them and Hines-Allen, who was a very good athlete. I don't either of those two are at the same level and I don't see a lot more depth at forward. Won't afffect them most of the time, but against top-tier teams, it will.

- MSU. Where does the offense start? McCowan finishes or puts back. Is there a Vivians in the bunch? Also need to help her out on the boards...start Bibby.

- Maryland: If her knee recovers well, Blair Watson -- who was Marylad's second leading scorer before getting injured -- will join with Charles for a nice one-two punch. Austin is frosting, but I think Oliva Owens is the cake and will contribute solid rebounding as a frosh.

- Oregon. 6'8" center Joanna Grymek from Poland takes over from Marie Gulich for one year and she's aided and abetted by two very tall, need-to-be refined frosh centers: 6'7" Patricia Morris and 6'9" Andrea Aquino. Don't think either will impact much as frosh, but keep an eye on Aquino.

- Texas A&M. Should she stay or should see go?

Agree with most of your free-fall picks. How about possible Moving-up Teams:

- Syracuse. The myriad collection of domestic and international talent continues to get better, possibly much better with 6'2" French guard Kadiatou Sissoko and 6'2" New Yorker Emily Engstler at wing. If Coach Q has gotten the right ingredients, look for him to stir them up over the course of the season.

- Iowa. The marvelously efficient Megan Gustafson is back in the post, as are top two scoring guards Kathleen Doyle and MaKenzie Morris. Solid coaching and a team that should gain from a solid year in 2017-18.

Lots of good input here--you know more about many of these teams than I do. And congrats on your win--glad you were enjoying it yesterday.

Stevens is gone which is a huge blow for Geno. Notre Dame is looking better and better, especially if Turner comes back strong. Jess Shepard might be my dark horse pick for NPOY...I think skill wise, she might be the best player in the country with everything she brings to table. Put her in the high post next year where she can hit from midrange-deep or beat you off the dribble and she's going to be impossible to defend with Turner inside. Plus if she continues to get in better shape, look out.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Now what's the ranking? I don't think UConn is a top-10 team without Gabby, Kia, and Z. We get in two freshmen, one of whom will be pressed into service as a starting post player, a player, we should note, has suffered a major knee injury. So no Gabby or Z in the front court. Megan Walker is still a major question mark after a disappointing freshman season. And there are two other freshmen who have not proved they are going to progress.

We're going in with an even thinner bench, and a front court that is suddenly enormously vulnerable to the front courts of other top 10 teams.

The world has changed, and next season is going to be painful.

 

[asuwish]

Will be interesting to see how Turner fits into the ND offense. She isn’t as versatile as Westbeld or Shepard

Does Turner with history of injures stay or go? I think no problem getting drafted as someone takes a chance on her athleticism. She maybe limited in playing with 4 starters back and 2 true point guards coming in not to mention they have another big who sat out with injury.

 

[bbballfan23]

Now what's the ranking? I don't think UConn is a top-10 team without Gabby, Kia, and Z. We get in two freshmen, one of whom will be pressed into service as a starting post player, a player, we should note, has suffered a major knee injury. So no Gabby or Z in the front court. Megan Walker is still a major question mark after a disappointing freshman season. And there are two other freshmen who have not proved they are going to progress.

We're going in with an even thinner bench, and a front court that is suddenly enormously vulnerable to the front courts of other top 10 teams.

The world has changed, and next season is going to be painful.

Painful as in losing 2-3 regular season games instead of a perfect record? Haha oh well, I’d rather not have all the pressure of a perfect season when we get to the tournament.

 

[asuwish]

Amazing that Tennessee with all their splendid recruiting, isn't on anyone's radar.
Waste of good talent

As we used to say in the band...
"Choice not chance, got us in this mess..."
(Set to the West Point pep song).

The talent is young and I dont think they have any real proven or not proven size. Lots of guards and wings.

 

[bbsamjj]

UConn is still easily top 5 IMO. KLS/Collier/Dangerfield are as good as a top 3 as there is in the country (at worst, second to ND Top 3 of Arike/Turner/Shepherd). Two of the top 5 freshman in the nation are coming to Storrs next year, and I dont' believe Megan Walker has forgotten how to play basketball. I'm tempted to put UConn above Baylor although Baylor will have all the height in the world.

 

[bbballfan23]

UConn is still easily top 5 IMO. KLS/Collier/Dangerfield are as good as a top 3 as there is in the country (at worst, second to ND Top 3 of Arike/Turner/Shepherd). Two of the top 5 freshman in the nation are coming to Storrs next year, and I dont' believe Megan Walker has forgotten how to play basketball. I'm tempted to put UConn above Baylor although Baylor will have all the height in the world.

Agreed with you on Baylor. They seem post reliant. UConn has a great PG, Wing & Post.

 

[Dillon77]

Does Turner with history of injures stay or go? I think no problem getting drafted as someone takes a chance on her athleticism. She maybe limited in playing with 4 starters back and 2 true point guards coming in not to mention they have another big who sat out with injury.

Everything we've heard is that Turner stays in South Bend for her senior year of eligibility. MM gave an interview to local papers that the plan is that Brianna moves back to the low post and Shepard goes out to the high post, where Westbeld held court. Notre Dame needed Shepard to be the low post this year, due to the injuries to (first) Turner, then Vaughn. With both of them back, she'll be free to go to a position that will allow her to demonstrate her considerable skills, from spot-up shooting and passing to driving from the top of the lane.

Of the four ACL injuries, Turner and Vaughn are coming back; Mychal Johnson and Lili Thompson are not.

 

[Dillon77]

Revised in light of AZ's departure and further thought

1. Notre Dame - Return 4 of 5 starters + add 2 injured Fs + 2 top 20 HS recruits
2. Oregon - Ionescu & Hebard return. Lose Bando but add transfer Boley.
3. Baylor - Lose Kristy Wallace & Cohen but Brown, Cox, Morris back + THREE top 5 HS
4. UConn - Big losses of GW & KN but return 4 of 6
   
5. Louisville - Lose Hines-Allen but rest back.
6. Oregon St - Lose Gulich but add Slocum
7. Texas - Lose top 2 but next 4 our back + 2 top 10 HS.
8. Mizzou - Return 5 of top 6
9. Maryland - Return 4 of 5 starters + top 15 HS
10. Arizona St - Everyone back.

Next -- Georgia, Miss St, NC State, So Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, West Virginia

In the "next" category, I'm going to give Iowa a shot, as indicated in my post just above yours. I think Gustafson and the returning guards can make some progress on this year's solid performance.

In two years, I think Florida State, Virginia Tech and even Georgia Tech will have some solid talent to put pressure on recent ACC leaders.

 

[Topsail]

We have many question marks going forward with existing and new players. We could be a final four team or just a top ten team. It will be an interesting season next year watching it unfold.

 

[triaddukefan]

In the "next" category, I'm going to give Iowa a shot, as indicated in my post just above yours. I think Gustafson and the returning guards can make some progress on this year's solid performance.

In two years, I think Florida State, Virginia Tech and even Georgia Tech will have some solid talent to put pressure on recent ACC leaders.

Actually I think VPI's year is next year. They dont lose anyone....and all their best players will be Seniors. I was going over my projected ACC standings in my head earlier .... and I had VPI as #3 and Syracuse at #4. That translates into a top 25 preseason ranking in my book.

 

[bballnut90]

UCONN is still number 2 in my book. Even without Z, you have 2 All-Americans back, Dangerfield, and two other #1 recruits, plus ONO. UCONN arguably still has more talent than anyone.

Most important, you have Geno coaching the team. I think it’s far fetched to assume that programs like Louisville, Texas or Baylor are going to be better than UCONN. Each program has a well documented history of underachieving and they are consistently out coached and dominated by Geno in head to head matchups. I’ll always choose a well coached team over a team that looks like it has great potential on paper. There’s a reason we consistently see teams like Notre Dame, UCONN, Stanford and Mississippi State in the Final Four while we dont see Baylor or Texas.

 

[triaddukefan]

1) ND
2) UCONN
3) Oregon
4) Baylor
5) Louisville
6) Oregon State
7) Texas
8) Maryland

 

[biobioprof]

Are people forgetting about Stanford?

Stanford loses McPhee and Kaylee Johnson. But Tara has done pretty well at reloading over the years.

 

[Dillon77]

Actually I think VPI's year is next year. They dont lose anyone....and all their best players will be Seniors. I was going over my projected ACC standings in my head earlier .... and I had VPI as #3 and Syracuse at #4. That translates into a top 25 preseason ranking in my book.

The Emery-Magarity combination is a solid one, that's for sure and will be augmented by two gifted point guards including Mabrey3 (Dara). I remember their ACC game with Syracuse being a battle. The Orange, as noted, bring in some good frosh, too, but theirs are 6'0" plus guard and small forward. Ah, 3-4, 4-3...close enough. They'll both be better!

 

[EricLA]

I'd put UCONN 4th or 5th at this time. Preseason they will probably start the year at #2 or 3. We will see. Plenty of time for them to move up or down. NOW would be the time for teams to schedule UCONN, that's for sure!

 

[triaddukefan]

The Emery-Magarity combination is a solid one, that's for sure and will be augmented by two gifted point guards including Mabrey3 (Dara). I remember their ACC game with Syracuse being a battle. The Orange, as noted, bring in some good frosh, too, but theirs are 6'0" plus guard and small forward. Ah, 3-4, 4-3...close enough. They'll both be better!

I wonder if Hicks comes back.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

UCONN is still number 2 in my book. Even without Z, you have 2 All-Americans back, Dangerfield, and two other #1 recruits, plus ONO. UCONN arguably still has more talent than anyone.

Most important, you have Geno coaching the team.

That the Geno that didn't put Stevens in for much of the second half or overtime after she was unstoppable in the 1st half against Notre Dame? Or the one who loses just about every close game his team plays in?

Baylor and Notre Dame have more talent than UConn. Texas is probably close but much of their talent is young like UConn's.