Title Favorites per EvanMiya

[uh-no]

Liam McNeeley will cause that graph to shift for UConn, significanlty.

I'm giving puke the acc discount. They're favored by 20 points every game because the rest of the conference sucks.

they are pretty good....but it's hard to tell by how much because they're schedule is so soft in the acc. they did beat auburn by shooting the lights out in what was otherwise one of their worst defensive games, even adjusting for auburn's offense.

 

[MrJama100]

If the last 9 were in the "Title Favorite" category, does that mean UConn 2014 was the last to buck the trend (no 2020)?

 

[ucp990411]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

Huh? You and your beloved Duke. Nobody here wants them to win. Ever.

 

[uh-no]

Huh? You and your beloved Duke. Nobody here wants them to win. Ever.

there's at least one connecticut born and raised duke alum on this board...

 

[Waquoit]

there's at least one connecticut born and raised duke alum on this board...

That’s his problem

 

[djct1999]

What’s the metric for “heart of a champion?” Pretty sure that was in full display Tuesday night. This UConn team has holes compared to the last two years. It’s easy to see why the computers aren’t enamored. But I will again ask this one question……name a higher seed who wants to see UConn in their bracket?

 

[Rocktheworld]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

 

[ucp990411]

there's at least one connecticut born and raised duke alum on this board...

traitor

 

[StllH8L8ner]

I have my early season bet in on the good guys but this year have an Alabama hedge.

Although the conspiracy (kitty?) theory in me thinks having the Flagg sideshow make a deep run would be good for ratings and the NCAA (via the refs) would be fully ready to capitalize on that…

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

You’re kidding right? Why would I root for the golden boy who chose Puke over us?

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

Our KP-type ORtg/DRTg metrics were elite (like, Top 1-3 in country for offense, Top 10 defense) during that stretch of games from December 1st through the DePaul when Liam got hurt.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Our KP-type ORtg/DRTg metrics were elite (like, Top 1-3 in country for offense, Top 10 defense) during that stretch of games from December 1st through the DePaul when Liam got hurt.

Top 10 in defense?

 

[navery12]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

This is a super inexact science since I'm using a different source in Bart Torvik where you can actually play around with time frames. But pre McNeeley injury we were #2 on offense and #122 on defense which would put us roughly at the cross section of Alabama (#3 offense) and Oklahoma (#107 defense), so right around the words Final Four on the chart

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Top 10 in defense?

Based on how you did the analysis, yea. (adjustments for opponent/luck)

In raw, unadjusted form, it was definitely Top 25-30th. Doesn't negate the point that our overall season metrics are clouded by a ton of background noise related to injuries and opposing players shooting at least a couple standard deviations above their expectation vs. us.

That's fine, though. I'd rather be in stealth mode heading into March.

 

[RuffRuff]

This is a super inexact science since I'm using a different source in Bart Torvik where you can actually play around with time frames. But pre McNeeley injury we were #2 on offense and #122 on defense which would put us roughly at the cross section of Alabama (#3 offense) and Oklahoma (#107 defense), so right around the words Final Four on the chart

Do agree with the fact that with Liam back I really don’t think any metric out there is evaluating this team accurately. I wish I could say that it could help us sneak up on someone, lol. Where would Duke be without Flagg for 5 weeks? Not totally apples to apples, but much closer to an apple than an orange.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

 

[gtcam]

I'm not feeling it. I've watched them a couple times now. The computers love them, but eyeball test doesn't jive with me nor does their play against top competition. Too small, not the same team without Shead. Of the top 5 teams on that chart, my least favorite. They can't overwhelm teams that are skilled and well coached with that defense.

They counter with an extraordinary coach themselves.
Sampson gets the most out his kids
If they can stay healthy (which they haven't the past 4+ years) they will be there in the Elite Eight and anything can happen after that stage

 

[auror]

Based on how you did the analysis, yea. (adjustments for opponent/luck)

In raw, unadjusted form, it was definitely Top 25-30th. Doesn't negate the point that our overall season metrics are clouded by a ton of background noise related to injuries and opposing players shooting at least a couple standard deviations above their expectation vs. us.

That's fine, though. I'd rather be in stealth mode heading into March.

72nd adjusted for opponent from 11/30 to 12/31.

 

[RuffRuff]

They counter with an extraordinary coach themselves.
Sampson gets the most out his kids
If they can stay healthy (which they haven't the past 4+ years) they will be there in the Elite Eight and anything can happen after that stage

It does feel like he’s due, and I think he’s a great coach. They can shoot the 3 well. Something feels like it’s missing in their sauce.

Their starting 5 consists of two 6’8” bigs, a 6’1” PG, 6’3” and 6’4”. It just feels like to play that type of D against the bigger more talented teams, it’ll fall short. Broome went 10-15 from floor against them. Put them up against a Florida for instance and they’ll tower over them. They’re already lost to Auburn and Alabama.

Thats why they play the games.

 

[Jbirdp5]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

In my opinion this is an even worse take than your Hurley should be fired at halftime of the Iona game take. I don’t think anyone here wants to see Flagg win with Duke

 

[JustbrewitMan]

72nd adjusted for opponent from 11/30 to 12/31.

Fair enough...I don't subscribe to the various stat services so I can't do that query. I was going off HoopExplorer database, which put our AdjD (which includes their own luck adjustment) at around 95-ish per 100poss

 

[Pmac923]

I guarantee you that none of the teams "favored" to make the Final 4 want any part of us. NONE of them.

It’s like Tiger on the back 9 on Sunday in his prime. You need to beat us when it matters. Still remains to be seen if someone can do it.

 

[UConnJim]

If you dig deeper into Miya stats, you find that the UConn starting 5 of Ball/Diarra/Johnson/Karraban/McNeeley is rated the #3 five person lineup (based on efficiency) in college basketball. That gives me hope that UConn can challenge for the championship.