Title Favorites per EvanMiya

[Rocktheworld]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

 

[ucp990411]

there's at least one connecticut born and raised duke alum on this board...

traitor

 

[StllH8L8ner]

I have my early season bet in on the good guys but this year have an Alabama hedge.

Although the conspiracy (kitty?) theory in me thinks having the Flagg sideshow make a deep run would be good for ratings and the NCAA (via the refs) would be fully ready to capitalize on that…

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

You’re kidding right? Why would I root for the golden boy who chose Puke over us?

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

Our KP-type ORtg/DRTg metrics were elite (like, Top 1-3 in country for offense, Top 10 defense) during that stretch of games from December 1st through the DePaul when Liam got hurt.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Our KP-type ORtg/DRTg metrics were elite (like, Top 1-3 in country for offense, Top 10 defense) during that stretch of games from December 1st through the DePaul when Liam got hurt.

Top 10 in defense?

 

[navery12]

Wonder where we fall on that graph if he only factors in Liam games

Either way, we have him back just in time, and he just showed out like crazy. The nation should be worried again.

This is a super inexact science since I'm using a different source in Bart Torvik where you can actually play around with time frames. But pre McNeeley injury we were #2 on offense and #122 on defense which would put us roughly at the cross section of Alabama (#3 offense) and Oklahoma (#107 defense), so right around the words Final Four on the chart

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Top 10 in defense?

Based on how you did the analysis, yea. (adjustments for opponent/luck)

In raw, unadjusted form, it was definitely Top 25-30th. Doesn't negate the point that our overall season metrics are clouded by a ton of background noise related to injuries and opposing players shooting at least a couple standard deviations above their expectation vs. us.

That's fine, though. I'd rather be in stealth mode heading into March.

 

[RuffRuff]

This is a super inexact science since I'm using a different source in Bart Torvik where you can actually play around with time frames. But pre McNeeley injury we were #2 on offense and #122 on defense which would put us roughly at the cross section of Alabama (#3 offense) and Oklahoma (#107 defense), so right around the words Final Four on the chart

Do agree with the fact that with Liam back I really don’t think any metric out there is evaluating this team accurately. I wish I could say that it could help us sneak up on someone, lol. Where would Duke be without Flagg for 5 weeks? Not totally apples to apples, but much closer to an apple than an orange.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

 

[gtcam]

I'm not feeling it. I've watched them a couple times now. The computers love them, but eyeball test doesn't jive with me nor does their play against top competition. Too small, not the same team without Shead. Of the top 5 teams on that chart, my least favorite. They can't overwhelm teams that are skilled and well coached with that defense.

They counter with an extraordinary coach themselves.
Sampson gets the most out his kids
If they can stay healthy (which they haven't the past 4+ years) they will be there in the Elite Eight and anything can happen after that stage

 

[auror]

Based on how you did the analysis, yea. (adjustments for opponent/luck)

In raw, unadjusted form, it was definitely Top 25-30th. Doesn't negate the point that our overall season metrics are clouded by a ton of background noise related to injuries and opposing players shooting at least a couple standard deviations above their expectation vs. us.

That's fine, though. I'd rather be in stealth mode heading into March.

72nd adjusted for opponent from 11/30 to 12/31.

 

[RuffRuff]

They counter with an extraordinary coach themselves.
Sampson gets the most out his kids
If they can stay healthy (which they haven't the past 4+ years) they will be there in the Elite Eight and anything can happen after that stage

It does feel like he’s due, and I think he’s a great coach. They can shoot the 3 well. Something feels like it’s missing in their sauce.

Their starting 5 consists of two 6’8” bigs, a 6’1” PG, 6’3” and 6’4”. It just feels like to play that type of D against the bigger more talented teams, it’ll fall short. Broome went 10-15 from floor against them. Put them up against a Florida for instance and they’ll tower over them. They’re already lost to Auburn and Alabama.

Thats why they play the games.

 

[Jbirdp5]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

In my opinion this is an even worse take than your Hurley should be fired at halftime of the Iona game take. I don’t think anyone here wants to see Flagg win with Duke

 

[JustbrewitMan]

72nd adjusted for opponent from 11/30 to 12/31.

Fair enough...I don't subscribe to the various stat services so I can't do that query. I was going off HoopExplorer database, which put our AdjD (which includes their own luck adjustment) at around 95-ish per 100poss

 

[Pmac923]

I guarantee you that none of the teams "favored" to make the Final 4 want any part of us. NONE of them.

It’s like Tiger on the back 9 on Sunday in his prime. You need to beat us when it matters. Still remains to be seen if someone can do it.

 

[UConnJim]

If you dig deeper into Miya stats, you find that the UConn starting 5 of Ball/Diarra/Johnson/Karraban/McNeeley is rated the #3 five person lineup (based on efficiency) in college basketball. That gives me hope that UConn can challenge for the championship.

 

[Waquoit]

I’m just wondering what people would say if Flagg had that same exact slip in the XL center. Actually I don’t.

 

[uconnbaseball]

UH has no chance to win a title. None.

 

[Umami Zen]

As long as we're healthy -Hass being the wild card- And if we have a fair seeding taking into account our record affected by Liam's injury- No one is going to want to see us in their bracket. Starting to put it together at the right time.

Evan's view of us seems to be somewhat flawed from the perspective of Liam's injury and its impact on our performance while out. It is what it is. The next 10 games leading up to Selection Sunday will give you a better indication of our Tournament prospects.

 

[REB1094]

Title favorites tier:

• Houston - Really good team but I just can't believe in them, because they're Houston
• Duke - Passes the eye test, although in a really bad ACC. I love their size and of course they're led by the 20PPG #1 NBA draft pick. But I'm cautious going all in on a team that relies on freshmen as much as they do
• Florida - I haven't watched much of them this year so can't confidently say yes or no. But they beat Auburn on the road and demolished Tennessee when they were #1, so I have to say yes
• I'm all in on Auburn and Alabama. Johni Broome and Mark Sears are 2 of the top 3 I'm watching for NPOY. Both teams are REALLY impressive to watch

Final Four tier:

• Gonzaga - No way. They have a solid roster and should be better, but the games matter and they've lost too many for me to be confident
• Purdue - Will fall into the same matchup issue they have before. Pressure their guards and they won't have Edey to take over. I don't think Kaufman-Renn is that guy, so I'm out
• Kansas - Definitely have the talent to make a real title run. Can they put the egos aside and pull it together? Probably not, but it's hard for me to count them out even if they've miserably underperformed expectations so far
• Tennessee - I really like Tennessee so I want to be in, but if I said no to Houston because they're Houston then I have to be consistent and have some hesitation here
• Iowa St - Definitely a threat for a final four berth, but they've started slipping at a bad time to start slipping
• St Johns - Sorry, I'm out. I think their strategy of missing every shot and just getting the rebound and trying again until it goes in is fun, but not sustainable for a title run
• Arizona - Getting hot at a good time. In the tournament, will Caleb Love shoot 10-25 or 3-17? That will decide how far they go
• Haven't watched too much of the rest

UConn: It sounds like Diarra won't be healthy the rest of the way. That means that our only individual playmaker is freshman Liam McNeeley who probably has to play 35+ minutes a night the rest of the way coming off a 5 week injury. At this point I'm more concerned about that than the defense, because the defense has exponentially improved recently. He showed us in Omaha that he can take over a game, but it's very risky to put all the eggs in that basket. Right now I wouldn't consider us a real title contender, but no top 4 seed will want to see UConn on their side of the bracket

 

[jibsey]

Our last 2 title teams had Diarra coming off the bench as a defensive stopper and disrupter. He was never starter material and certainly not wounded the way he will be the rest of t(e way. We also had a big guards in Newton and Cam last year whose size helped rebounding.
We control the glass and shoot decent with our good offense we win. So it should be Solo, Karaban, Liam, Stew with either Johnson or Reed and then Diarra and comes in as he did last year off the bench to disrupt. Ross off the bench.
Mahaney only when we have a lead to play with. Time for Hurley to abandon any pre season loyalties or strategies at this point of the year.
This gives us the size we need but the downside is turnovers but it’s a risk we have to take because Haas is no scoring threat nor is Mahaney.
Tremendous opponent guards will still out quick us but we are rolling the dice either way and Liam is as good a facilitator as Haas or Mahaney.
We move into the real contender group this way but going with our point guards puts inferior talent out there.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Our last 2 title teams had Diarra coming off the bench as a defensive stopper and disrupter. He was never starter material and certainly not wounded the way he will be the rest of t(e way. We also had a big guards in Newton and Cam last year whose size helped rebounding.
We control the glass and shoot decent with our good offense we win. So it should be Solo, Karaban, Liam, Stew with either Johnson or Reed and then Diarra and comes in as he did last year off the bench to disrupt. Ross off the bench.
Mahaney only when we have a lead to play with. Time for Hurley to abandon any pre season loyalties or strategies at this point of the year.
This gives us the size we need but the downside is turnovers but it’s a risk we have to take because Haas is no scoring threat nor is Mahaney.
Tremendous opponent guards will still out quick us but we are rolling the dice either way and Liam is as good a facilitator as Haas or Mahaney.
We move into the real contender group this way but going with our point guards puts inferior talent out there.

The Diarra hate on this board is head scratching. The dude was an absolute stud for us the first half of the season and was one of the nation’s leaders in assist/turnover. Having a point guard that puts up 8-10 assists per game and is good for 8-10 points in the flow of the offense is something that would get him a start on most teams in the country.

 

[uh-no]

The Diarra hate on this board is head scratching. The dude was an absolute stud for us the first half of the season and was one of the nation’s leaders in assist/turnover. Having a point guard that puts up 8-10 assists per game and is good for 8-10 points in the flow of the offense is something that would get him a start on most teams in the country.

yeah i don't get it. dude isn't newton, whatever....but before he was hobbled, he was driving this offense.

 

[mauconnfan]

The Diarra hate on this board is head scratching. The dude was an absolute stud for us the first half of the season and was one of the nation’s leaders in assist/turnover. Having a point guard that puts up 8-10 assists per game and is good for 8-10 points in the flow of the offense is something that would get him a start on most teams in the country.

Where’s the hate thing, no one hates the guy who was 6th man of the year he’s a very solid player and our PG. Not to see how much better we would be if he’s still our 6th man is ignoring the facts. He’s solid but to be a really great team we needed Danny’s dream of Mahaney or even Nowell stepping up because HD just isn’t that guy. Solid is the key word, passing it to Solo, Liam and Alex (when he used to be able) in position to shoot it was something he was good at. But he had many ghost like 1st halves especially during losses and games we needed to come back on and he’s not real creative. Like the kid, love him trying to play through pain but the truth is Dan Hurley and the staff failed finding a real impact PG to make this team great again and keep HD where he’s the most effective.

 

[Scrutineer]

I said this to a buddy of mine the other day. I think they got too much press in previous years. It doesn’t feel like they’re getting as much hype as they used to. Scary good team.

I love how much social media hypes the Big 12. Houston and Arizona have come into that league and dominated it. Houston still looks like they’re playing an AAC schedule. No wonder Kansas won 15 years in a row

So, if UConn does the unmentionable this year, does Brett Yormark fly all the University Presidents to Storrs to convince DB and RM it's time to join the league and win them titles in something for a change?

 

[RuffRuff]

Where’s the hate thing, no one hates the guy who was 6th man of the year he’s a very solid player and our PG. Not to see how much better we would be if he’s still our 6th man is ignoring the facts. He’s solid but to be a really great team we needed Danny’s dream of Mahaney or even Nowell stepping up because HD just isn’t that guy. Solid is the key word, passing it to Solo, Liam and Alex (when he used to be able) in position to shoot it was something he was good at. But he had many ghost like 1st halves especially during losses and games we needed to come back on and he’s not real creative. Like the kid, love him trying to play through pain but the truth is Dan Hurley and the staff failed finding a real impact PG to make this team great again and keep HD where he’s the most effective.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if we can figure out this lineup configuration without Diarra, our upside is higher. It presents a ton of matchup problems on both ends of the floor. Love Hassan but he’s not stressing other teams.

 

[Scrutineer]

The last nine national champs have been in the "Title Favorites" group on Selection Sunday.

Not in the last nine: 2014.

Interesting how they didn't mention it was UConn.
Wonder if the school's name would have been mentioned if it had been one of the "blue bloods"?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I believe most of us want Flagg to win it all. It’s not about Duke, it’s about Flagg.

 

[SubbaBub]

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if we can figure out this lineup configuration without Diarra, our upside is higher. It presents a ton of matchup problems on both ends of the floor. Love Hassan but he’s not stressing other teams.

This is correct. Hass has been terrific and way better than expected but he's not someone opponents need to worry about taking over an important game. Doesn't mean he can't but it's not someone anyone should be counting on. Liam, AK (not recently), Ball, and Reed are all guys who can be mismatches. Last season someone was always on fire and when two or three guys were on, we won by 20. At the end of the day, this team goes as far as their consistency and togetherness take them.

Liam was legendary at Creighton but that can't be the recipe for an extended run, but it could be the difference if everyone else is playing up to par.