Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

[Rooster C.]

Not surprisingly that Duke/WV game is getting heavy highlight rotation on sportscenter. A lot of bad publicity for Duke. I wonder if Bella Flemings has signed yet........

 

[TRest]

Not surprisingly that Duke/WV game is getting heavy highlight rotation on sportscenter. A lot of bad publicity for Duke. I wonder if Bella Flemings has signed yet........

I like Lawson as a tv personality but this isn’t working.

 

[FanInNC]

Lawson did just win the ACC tournament last year and made an elite 8.

I’m not going to argue about her coaching talents or not, but it’s 4 games into the season. I’m shocked Duke lost to a WV team playing 5 players half the game - that’s an egg on the face about as bad as it gets unless you lose to NCCU or the like. But I’ll let the season play out a little more before I come to any definitive conclusions.

I will say Lawsons teams are putting together a lot of evidence of really struggling to score it. Duke produces some real stinkers offensively every season that are hard to watch. Of course they’ll drop 80 next time they play State since I pointed that out, but that is a real bugaboo for them.

 

[cancontent]

Stanford is starting to raise some concerns beating a winless WSU team by only 8 points. It was on the road but still. They only had one player with double digit scoring (Swain with 10). Somfai shot 4/12 and 0/5 from 3. Clardy was 3/10 and 0/4. Agara 3/9 and 0/2. Overall Stanford shot 22/54 (41%) and 2/18(11%) from 3. Ouch! I think they'll be okay and hoping this is an aberration but they may not be as good as some have believed.

Ironically, Megan McKeown has Stanford as a sleeper team in the ACC this season. Caught me by surprise during the half time show last night.

 

[FanInNC]

Irish embarrassing the conference … ugly score!

 

[Rooster C.]

A few random stats regarding Stanford - who after 6 games has yet to play anyone challenging. In their first 3 games (all at home) They averaged 85.3ppg, shot an average of 61.7 times at 48.8%fg and shot an average of 19.7 3-pointers at 42.4%.
Their last 3 games (2 on the road, 1 home) they averaged 63.0ppg (a drop of over 22ppg), averaged 56 shots ( a drop of 5.7/gm) at 42.3% (a drop of 6.5%fg),and have averaged 15.7 3-pointers ( a drop of 4.0/gm) at 19.1% (a drop of 23.3%). Assuming there is SOME drop off on the road and that their last 3 opponents were somewhat better than the first 3 - so again, some drop off is expected - STILL this is going in the wrong direction. They haven't scored over 70 points in their last 3 games and that 3-point shooting is pretty atrocious. Stanford's next 3 opponents aren't challenging either. Then they host Tennessee.
While they will undoubtedly get up for the SEC/ACC challenge game at home, it is followed by home games against Cal (their first conference game) and Washington before heading down the road to SF to play Oregon.
This is followed by one more patsy at home before heading out to begin the New Year with back-to-back games on the road at NC State and NC.
I can't help but feel that playing 10 out of your first 14 games at home (plus 1 in SF) is not going to set this team up for success heading in to their conference season. Luckily, what looked like some of their toughest opponents are home games and those tough opponents (Duke,ND) aren't looking quite so tough any longer. They have a very good chance of going 12 - 6 in conference games which should put them in the tournament IF - IF - IF - they don't continue to backslide.

 

[Rooster C.]

On the eve of the SEC/ACC challenge games this seems like a good time to take another look at things in the conference. The ACC has been getting a fair amount of bad press lately between the downturn of Duke, ND, NC State and the overall performance against ranked teams. Some or most of this criticism is justified but also some of it isn't so I think some perspective is called for.

Overall the ACC is a combined (2 - 18) vs ranked opponents, the SEC is (5 - 5), the Big Ten is (8 - 8), the Big 12 is (3 - 6), and the Big East is (4 - 3) overall. So although the ACC record is not very good thus far, at least it can be said that they're not afraid to play ranked opponents in non-conference games - at least double the amount of games compared to the vaunted SEC conference. Another point to be made is that 10 different ACC teams have played at least one ranked opponent, while only 5 SEC schools have played ranked opponents. Although the Big 12 has played a total of 9 ranked opponents at least 7 different schools have done so compared to the SEC's 5. The Big Ten has done decently having played 16 opponents overall divided among 9 different schools. The Big East has played the fewest but has the best overall W - L record and their 7 total games isn't that far behind the 9 of the Big 12 or the 10 of the SEC.

Of the SEC overall 10 games vs ranked opponents 3 are by Texas (and 3 of the 5 wins), 2 by SC (1 - 1), 2 by KY (1 - 1), and 2 by TN (0 - 2). So out of the 10 total games played against ranked opponents, 4 teams accounted for 9 of those games - four teams out of 16!! Of the Big Ten games (16 total), 4 were played by UCLA (3 - 1), 3 by USC (1 - 2), 2 by Michigan (1 - 1), 2 by Ohio St (1 - 1), and 2 by Utah (0 - 2). MD and IA are (1 - 0), and IN, WI, PUR are all (0 - 1). By contrast, of the 16 games vs ranked opponents 10 different teams accounted for those 16 games.

As for the ACC's 20 games vs ranked opponents, NC ST (1 - 2) DUKE (0 - 3), and CLEM (0 -3) accounted for 9 of those, Notre Dame (1 - 1), Louisville (0 - 2), Miami (0 - 2), and Florida State (0 - 2) accounted for another 8, with 3 other schools adding 1 game each.

When you look at each conference it's the teams who have been willing to play ranked opponents in these non-conference games are the teams most likely to make the NCAA and do some damage once they get there. SEC teams: Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. I'm not saying LSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Alabama and/or Georgia won't make the tourney but look at the difference already. Big Ten: UCLA, USC, Michigan, Ohio St, followed by Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana. Again, I would expect Washington, Nebraska, Oregon, Michigan State, and possibly Minnesota to be there but there's a noticeable difference. The Big 12 is an aberration - Baylor has played 2 (1 -1), with TCU (1 - 0) and WV (1 - 0) one each, and Iowa St and Okla St not having played anyone yet. There may be a couple of other teams that make the tourney but not any school I can point to at the moment (Utah is 0-2, KSU, Colorado, and BYU are all 0-1 and don't look great).

When it comes to the ACC we're looking at NC ST, DUKE, ND, Louisville, Miami,Clemson, and NC, followed by Syracuse, and possibly FSU. I honestly don't think Syracuse and FSU will make it and likely be replaced by Stanford, Virginia, or Virginia Tech. Cal is a remote possibility.


So there you have it. The ACC gets a bad rap but if you compare them to the other conferences they stack up pretty well. They have more teams (10) already battle-tested before conference play begins compared to the Big Ten (9), the Big 12 (7), and the SEC (5). My next post will cover the SEC/ACC challenge games and who I think will win.

 

[LETTERL]

I'm confident that NC State will be a solid tourney team by season's end. It is taking some time for new players to get acclimated to the higher level of play, returning players to accept their new roles and for everyone to play together. There are no seniors on this team.

I'm looking forward to seeing NC State tonight against Oklahoma. I expect to see lots of Mallory Collier, Maddie Cox and Lorena Awou helping deflect some of the pressure off Tilda Trygger and accumulating fouls I know will come with trying to defend Reagan Beers.

 

[Bone Dog]

On the eve of the SEC/ACC challenge games this seems like a good time to take another look at things in the conference. The ACC has been getting a fair amount of bad press lately between the downturn of Duke, ND, NC State and the overall performance against ranked teams. Some or most of this criticism is justified but also some of it isn't so I think some perspective is called for.

Overall the ACC is a combined (2 - 18) vs ranked opponents, the SEC is (5 - 5), the Big Ten is (8 - 8), the Big 12 is (3 - 6), and the Big East is (4 - 3) overall. So although the ACC record is not very good thus far, at least it can be said that they're not afraid to play ranked opponents in non-conference games - at least double the amount of games compared to the vaunted SEC conference. Another point to be made is that 10 different ACC teams have played at least one ranked opponent, while only 5 SEC schools have played ranked opponents. Although the Big 12 has played a total of 9 ranked opponents at least 7 different schools have done so compared to the SEC's 5. The Big Ten has done decently having played 16 opponents overall divided among 9 different schools. The Big East has played the fewest but has the best overall W - L record and their 7 total games isn't that far behind the 9 of the Big 12 or the 10 of the SEC.

Of the SEC overall 10 games vs ranked opponents 3 are by Texas (and 3 of the 5 wins), 2 by SC (1 - 1), 2 by KY (1 - 1), and 2 by TN (0 - 2). So out of the 10 total games played against ranked opponents, 4 teams accounted for 9 of those games - four teams out of 16!! Of the Big Ten games (16 total), 4 were played by UCLA (3 - 1), 3 by USC (1 - 2), 2 by Michigan (1 - 1), 2 by Ohio St (1 - 1), and 2 by Utah (0 - 2). MD and IA are (1 - 0), and IN, WI, PUR are all (0 - 1). By contrast, of the 16 games vs ranked opponents 10 different teams accounted for those 16 games.

As for the ACC's 20 games vs ranked opponents, NC ST (1 - 2) DUKE (0 - 3), and CLEM (0 -3) accounted for 9 of those, Notre Dame (1 - 1), Louisville (0 - 2), Miami (0 - 2), and Florida State (0 - 2) accounted for another 8, with 3 other schools adding 1 game each.

When you look at each conference it's the teams who have been willing to play ranked opponents in these non-conference games are the teams most likely to make the NCAA and do some damage once they get there. SEC teams: Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. I'm not saying LSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Alabama and/or Georgia won't make the tourney but look at the difference already. Big Ten: UCLA, USC, Michigan, Ohio St, followed by Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana. Again, I would expect Washington, Nebraska, Oregon, Michigan State, and possibly Minnesota to be there but there's a noticeable difference. The Big 12 is an aberration - Baylor has played 2 (1 -1), with TCU (1 - 0) and WV (1 - 0) one each, and Iowa St and Okla St not having played anyone yet. There may be a couple of other teams that make the tourney but not any school I can point to at the moment (Utah is 0-2, KSU, Colorado, and BYU are all 0-1 and don't look great).

When it comes to the ACC we're looking at NC ST, DUKE, ND, Louisville, Miami,Clemson, and NC, followed by Syracuse, and possibly FSU. I honestly don't think Syracuse and FSU will make it and likely be replaced by Stanford, Virginia, or Virginia Tech. Cal is a remote possibility.


So there you have it. The ACC gets a bad rap but if you compare them to the other conferences they stack up pretty well. They have more teams (10) already battle-tested before conference play begins compared to the Big Ten (9), the Big 12 (7), and the SEC (5). My next post will cover the SEC/ACC challenge games and who I think will win.

Very interesting analysis. The first thing that occurs to me on reading it is that while some of the usual powerhouses seem to be dominating (eg UConn SC Texas) and others seem less dominant though still capable (eg UCLA LSU Iowa USC), and several appear to be in a significant slump (eg Duke ND Arizona Va Tech Creighton SDSU), a few new names have crept into the picture and seem to be rising powers, like Michigan MSU Oklahoma Kentucky TCU. Some of this may just be early season noise and artifacts of unusual OOC scheduling. And there’s plenty of room to disagree about exactly who’s up and who’s down.

The second thing that catches the eye is that D1 WCBB seems to be undergoing some sort of reshuffle. Could this be a moment in which the usual power relationships are undergoing a more farreaching transformation? I mean, the P4 conferences are stocked with large schools with deep pockets, and that suggests long term stability. But not all ADs allocate funds uniformly across their programs and some turbulence is possible among them. Also, coaching changes may have an incremental impact. Kenny Brooks going to Kentucky springs to mind, or Mark Campbell at TCU. Is the landscape of WCBB changing before our eyes?

 

[FanInNC]

Very interesting analysis. The first thing that occurs to me on reading it is that while some of the usual powerhouses seem to be dominating (eg UConn SC Texas) and others seem less dominant though still capable (eg UCLA LSU Iowa USC), and several appear to be in a significant slump (eg Duke ND Arizona Va Tech Creighton SDSU), a few new names have crept into the picture and seem to be rising powers, like Michigan MSU Oklahoma Kentucky TCU. Some of this may just be early season noise and artifacts of unusual OOC scheduling. And there’s plenty of room to disagree about exactly who’s up and who’s down.

The second thing that catches the eye is that D1 WCBB seems to be undergoing some sort of reshuffle. Could this be a moment in which the usual power relationships are undergoing a more farreaching transformation? I mean, the P4 conferences are stocked with large schools with deep pockets, and that suggests long term stability. But not all ADs allocate funds uniformly across their programs and some turbulence is possible among them. Also, coaching changes may have an incremental impact. Kenny Brooks going to Kentucky springs to mind, or Mark Campbell at TCU. Is the landscape of WCBB changing before our eyes?

I think without a doubt the landscape is changing. It’s already happened IMO. TCU is a great example. Clearly they have put resources into the WBB program. This isn’t simply a case of having a couple of good players in a recruiting class and that core having a moment. While it’s been only 2 years now, these are completely different rosters and cores. They went out and landed Hailey Van Lith last year and I’d guess that wasn’t cheap. This year went got Suarez who I know for a fact NC State wanted and I’m sure other programs did as well. And then got Olivia Miles from Notre Dame. Miles and Hailey Van Lith specifically were very known commodities who i can’t imagine came cheap. TCU has a great coach and also have invested in NIL for WBB and as long as that stays, they will stay in the national landscape.

The ACC is struggling this year in large part because they lost top end coaching and players over the last 2 years. And I don’t mean to graduation and retirement. VT was a national player under Kenny Brooks, he leaves for Kentucky and a pay raise and took his best player with him. It’s no coincidence that Kentucky is back on the map and VT has fallen off. FSU and ND in theory had 2 of the top 5 returning players in the nation this year in Latson and Miles. Instead of being in the ACC they are now in other conferences. Saurez, Koval, Kara Dunn, Tyana Todd, Lattimore, Tonie Morgan, Nya Robertson, Danielle Carnegie and Okananwa are other examples of top talent leaving the conference.

It’s normal in today’s world to lose players, but the thing is the conference didn’t replace with the same type talent. Pierre coming to State is about the lone example of incoming upgrades. Skylar Jones, Ra Shaya Kyle, Iyana Moore, Laila Phelia and Sa’Myah Smith are the only other ones even in the conversation.

FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are all examples of players and coaches leaving that have severely hampered their immediate futures. Notre Dame too.

It does appear Clemson is on the rise, Miami and UVa also seem to have put money into their programs. The ACC has a brighter future ahead with some nice recruiting classes coming in next year, the question will be can they keep that talent when it blossoms? Will programs put the necessary money up to retain those star recruits when they are rising juniors and seniors and TCU, LSU, SC, USC and the like come calling with big checks? I hope so. ACC WBB has been extremely fun over the years and highly competitive nationally. I hope it doesn’t turn into a feeder conference for other programs.

 

[FanInNC]

I'm confident that NC State will be a solid tourney team by season's end. It is taking some time for new players to get acclimated to the higher level of play, returning players to accept their new roles and for everyone to play together. There are no seniors on this team.

I'm looking forward to seeing NC State tonight against Oklahoma. I expect to see lots of Mallory Collier, Maddie Cox and Lorena Awou helping deflect some of the pressure off Tilda Trygger and accumulating fouls I know will come with trying to defend Reagan Beers.

I agree with your post - the only thing I wonder about is Awou. She flashed a lot of potential at times last year but she’s clearly in the doghouse. She didn’t dress in Cancun, coach’s decision. Is she available tonight?

 

[DefenseBB]

This SEC/ACC challenge will be interesting to see how it plays out today and tomorrow.
Vandy v. Virginia is easily a Vandy win
Georgia v. FSU is a toss up as I think FSU is better as they have played better teams but....
Kentucky v. Miami is a win for Kentucky
Auburn v. Syracuse is probably a Syracuse win at home.
NC State v. Oklahoma, despite our @LETTERL and @FanInNC optimism, tonight is not the moment when the Wolfpack put it together
Georgia Tech v. Texas A&M is a toss up. I despise Joni Taylor and that over inflated contract and she will eventually get the boot but tonight -who knows.
Tennessee v. Stanford is probably Tennessee but I will be rooting hard for the Cardinal!
Wed score is 4-1 and 2 toss up games

Thursday has this slate
Florida v. Virginia Tech is probably a Hokie win
UNC v. Texas is a Texas blow out
SC v. Louisville is an SC win
Pitt v. MSU is an easy MSU win
Arkansas v. SMU is probably a Razorback win but I may let our @azfan opinine on the "Fashionista" outfit...
Clemson v, Alabama is an Alabama win
LSU v. Duke that while LSU's first real test and on the road no less, this should be an easy win for the Tigers.
ND v. Ole Miss is a toss up. It's on the road and who know if HH can get any support.
Cal v. Missouri has mean leaning Cal's way.
Thur score is 6-2 and 1 toss up game

Overall is 10-3 and 3 with my guess of 11-5 in favor of the SEC when all is said and done.

 

[FanInNC]

This SEC/ACC challenge will be interesting to see how it plays out today and tomorrow.
Vandy v. Virginia is easily a Vandy win
Georgia v. FSU is a toss up as I think FSU is better as they have played better teams but....
Kentucky v. Miami is a win for Kentucky
Auburn v. Syracuse is probably a Syracuse win at home.
NC State v. Oklahoma, despite our @LETTERL and @FanInNC optimism, tonight is not the moment when the Wolfpack put it together
Georgia Tech v. Texas A&M is a toss up. I despise Joni Taylor and that over inflated contract and she will eventually get the boot but tonight -who knows.
Tennessee v. Stanford is probably Tennessee but I will be rooting hard for the Cardinal!
Wed score is 4-1 and 2 toss up games

Thursday has this slate
Florida v. Virginia Tech is probably a Hokie win
UNC v. Texas is a Texas blow out
SC v. Louisville is an SC win
Pitt v. MSU is an easy MSU win
Arkansas v. SMU is probably a Razorback win but I may let our @azfan opinine on the "Fashionista" outfit...
Clemson v, Alabama is an Alabama win
LSU v. Duke that while LSU's first real test and on the road no less, this should be an easy win for the Tigers.
ND v. Ole Miss is a toss up. It's on the road and who know if HH can get any support.
Cal v. Missouri has mean leaning Cal's way.
Thur score is 6-2 and 1 toss up game

Overall is 10-3 and 3 with my guess of 11-5 in favor of the SEC when all is said and done.

I'm inclined to agree with you on my Wolfpack. Big picture, I'm optimistic they get things figured out and round into form. Tonight? Not as confident. Not sure how they will hand Beers down low. Tilda is a very nice player, but she's very much a finesse player. This is a match up where the Pack really could use Awou, however Awou has not progressed from her Freshman year to her Sophomore year the way I would have hoped. She also is currently in the doghouse and I'm not even sure if she is available for tonight or not. Mallory Collier should get a look tonight, but she's not really proven to be a defensive minded player, maybe Maddie Cox will get a shot at guarding Beers, she is tough and plays solid defense, but not sure she can match up physically with Beers.

 

[cancontent]

I'm inclined to agree with you on my Wolfpack. Big picture, I'm optimistic they get things figured out and round into form. Tonight? Not as confident. Not sure how they will hand Beers down low. Tilda is a very nice player, but she's very much a finesse player. This is a match up where the Pack really could use Awou, however Awou has not progressed from her Freshman year to her Sophomore year the way I would have hoped. She also is currently in the doghouse and I'm not even sure if she is available for tonight or not. Mallory Collier should get a look tonight, but she's not really proven to be a defensive minded player, maybe Maddie Cox will get a shot at guarding Beers, she is tough and plays solid defense, but not sure she can match up physically with Beers.

While most have talked about dealing with Beers defensively, I'm curious as to how NC State deals with her from on offensive perspective . Will they try to go at her and see if they can get her into foul trouble?

Sometimes Beers gets caught flat footed and picks up bad fouls. Not sure if it's feasible, but it's been in the back of my mind when I think of this match up.

 

[FanInNC]

While most have talked about dealing with Beers defensively, I'm curious as to how NC State deals with her from on offensive perspective . Will they try to go at her and see if they can get her into foul trouble?

Sometimes Beers gets caught flat footed and picks up bad fouls. Not sure if it's feasible, but it's been in the back of my mind when I think of this match up.

Could be interesting. Looking over her game log, it appears she's only been in foul trouble once - last game against FSU she had 4. I didn't see that game, not sure how they attacked her or what those fouls were like. State has not exactly posted their bigs up much this year...or last year. However, from what I've heard, they did a little more of that in Cancun last week with success. Those games were on FloTV and I didn't break down and pay to watch, so only heard them on the radio. They were also against Green Bay and Southern Miss, so probably a lot easier to post them compared to a team like Oklahoma.

It's not really something Tilda has done much in her career at State so far. She seems much more comfortable floating around the perimeter and playing face up or rolling to the basket. Could they potentially get Beers in pick and rolls and try to attack her that way? Will be interesting to watch.

Seeing where Oklahoma is a 9.5 point favorite. Gonna be a tough one.

 

[Rooster C.]

It's finally time for Wake Forest!

Megan Gebbia is heading in to her fourth season as head coach and unfortunately has been heading in the wrong direction. In her initial season WF finished 17 - 17/ 5 - 13, followed by 7 - 25/ 2 - 16 in year two, and ending last year at 9 - 20(.310) overall and a dismal 2 - 16(.111) in conference. Wake Forest finished 17th - one spot from the bottom - and won only once on the road all season. I think they're in for yet another difficult year ahead.

What was lost: Too much for a team that finished 17th. Gone are their top 6 scorers and all but one starter. Gone is the only ranked player on the roster and #1 scorer R.Theuerkauf (5'9" Jr. G 12.0ppg) to join Georgia, gone is #2 scorer E. Williams (5'9" G 11.3ppg) to graduation, gone is #3 scorer D. Hinds (6'2" Gr. F 9.3ppg) who will now be looking at them from across the court at Clemson, gone is #4 scorer M. Cowles (6'3" Gr. F 8.8ppg) to ACC foe ND, and also gone to graduation are R. Conley (6'0" G 7.2ppg), T. Jones (5'8" G 7.1ppg), and A. Andrews (6'0" G 4.2ppg). Although M. Quimby (5'9" Jr. G 1.3ppg) withdrew her name from the portal she's not listed on the official roster so ......

What remains: Not a lot. Sometime starter A. Sorbye (5'9" So. G 4.2ppg), reserves M. Jordan (6'1" Jr. G/F 2.7ppg) and K. Moore (6'2" So. F 1.0ppg). That's it. Technically E. Johns (6'1" Gr. F 12.5ppg) who transferred in from American University a year ago but was injured and did not play last year.

Incoming transfers: M. Carter (6'3" rs Sr. G/F 12.9ppg) from Cal Poly, R. Preston (5'11" rs Jr. G 12.3ppg) from Elon, and G. Oliver (6'1" So. F 3.8ppg) from Colorado.

Incoming Freshmen: Two players from Australia, S. Metcalf (6'5" F) and O. Bird (6'3" F). Also coming in are M. Brown (5'8" G), C. Jones (5'8" G), and G. Galbavy (6'0" G) for a total of 5 freshmen.


It's going to be another challenging year for WF to be sure. They have only 3 returning players (one Jr. and two So.), 4 incoming transfers (one Gr. , two Jr., and one So.) and 5 incoming freshmen. Two of the three returning players did not play significant minutes and three of the four transfers were from smaller schools. Coach Gebbia has practically a new team and for all intents and purposes no likely starters outside of A. Sorbye. It will be trial - and - error or more likely trial - by - fire for this squad as she determines what combination works best. She lost both her best back court and front court players so spots are up for grabs. She has a team with 8 players 6'1" or taller and that may help as well as some taller guards on the roster. Having said that I don't think they will match up very well on either end as the ACC is a "guard heavy" league (supposedly) and there are ple(nty of good , strong post players they will be up against.

With all of that said, they still have a chance to finish ahead of last year. BC was decimated, GT is starting over with a new coach, Cal lost most of their better players, and FSU and Syracuse look to be having a down year so there's a tiny chance to improve although with only 12 players on the roster depth is yet another issue that's a concern. To Gebbia's credit she did get her team to play very competitively last year - losing to Clemson by 6, losing at VT by 7, losing to NC St by 7, losing to Stanford by 3, losing at Miami by 2, taking Louisville to OT before losing, and defeating both Pitt and SMU. If she can get this year's squad to do the same they might actually steal a few more wins. This is essentially a fresh start for WF with 75% of the team made up of Sophomores and Freshmen. It's a chance to build a culture for the future and (hopefully) if they don't continue to lose their best players to the portal each year they could start to turn things around for this program. Hope Springs Eternal.

Wake Forest assessment update:
Up to this point WF has performed better than expected having already equaled their victory total from a year ago. Having said that, they haven't really played anyone of note outside of UCF whom they defeated by 5. Still, whatever Gebbia is doing as hc seems to be working so far as even with a weak schedule in past years they wouldn't have been 9 - 0 at this point. It was difficult to even speculate who her starting five would be heading in to the season but she seems to have settled on returnees K. Moore(6'2" so F) and A. Sorbye(5'9" so G), along with transfers M. Carter(6'3" jr G/F) and G. Oliver(6'1" so F) and freshman M. Brown(5'8" G). Fellow freshman C. Jones (5'8" G) is usually the first player off the bench and has added a much-needed scoring punch.

Probably the starting 5 will remain somewhat fluid as the team is made up of so many young players but it's likely about 10 players will see significant action this season with transfer R. Preston (5'11" rs jr G), returnee M. Jordan (6'1" jr G/F) providing veteran experience off the bench and freshmen Aussies S. Metcalfe (6'5" F) and O. Bird(6'3") providing height needed in the paint. Can Coach Gebbia turn this program around? So far the jury is still out until they actually play somebody but for now it seems like she's got this team headed in the right direction.

WF plays host to William&Mary (2 - 4) today so expect them to go 10 - 0 on the season - but still not really challenge themselves. We will re-evaluate at the mid-point of conference play to see how it's going.

 

[Rooster C.]

Boston College you're up.

Boston College began the season unranked and finished it the same way. HC Joanna Bernabei-McNamee finished her 7th year going 16 - 18 overall and 6 - 12 in the ACC. Her overall win pct over her 7 years is .505 and .353 in conference. They did get an invite to the WBIT where they lost in the 1st round to Villanova . While BC didn't lose everbody they certainly came close. You usually don't see this kind of exodus unless there's a coaching change.

What was lost : 13 players! 2 graduated, including the 2nd leading scorer D. Waggoner (13.3ppg) and K. Jackson (4.4ppg).
Transfers in to the portal : Leading scorer T. Todd (Sr. 6'0" G 13.7ppg) to Ohio St., T. Sidberry (Sr. 6'1" F 12.5ppg) to Texas, A. Daley (Gr. 6'0" G 8.6ppg) to ??, S. Samuel (Gr. 6'1" G 6.3ppg) to ACC GT, K. Ivey (Gr. 5'8" G 5.6ppg) to Rutgers, N.Ndiaye (Jr. 6'1" F 4.4ppg) also to Rutgers, T. Greene (So. 6'3" G 4.4ppg) to ACC FSU, K. Lezama (Sr. 5'11" G 2.6ppg) to Hampton, J. Thompson (Jr. 5'8" G 2.2ppg) to Liberty, D. Mukeba Kasanda (So. 6'5" C 1.7ppg) also to ACC GT, and L. Krasovek (6'3" F 1.3ppg) to Purdue Ft. Wayne. Whew!!

What remains : 2 players Starter A. Tomlinson (So. 5'5" PG 2.2ppg) and reserve A. Mcgee (Sr. 5'10" G ) who was injured and did not play last year. In 2023-24 she averaged 1.4ppg. Not much but at least there's the starting PG to run the offense.

Incoming Transfers : 6 players K. Edmonds (rs So. 6'2" F 8.4ppg) from Houston, an Australian from Butler L. Carmody (So. 5'11" G 6.6ppg), K. Henderson (rs Jr. 5'6" G ) from Ohio St., E. Houpt (5'6" G 4.88ppg) from San Diego St., T. McDaniel (Gr. 5'9" G 14.0ppg) from Georgetown College, and E. LoPinto (Gr. 5'4" G) who is actually from BC but has been on the Lacrosse team over her career. Apparently she played hs basketball.

Incoming freshmen: #76 A. Anderson (5'11" G), J. Grier (5'8" G), K. Hall (6'3" F), and a 2nd anomaly K. Rolph (6'2" F) who is listed with a 6.7ppg from Wm & Mary but is also listed as a Freshman on the roster ?!

Wow, this is going to be an absolutely awful year for BC. There's just no way around it. I have no insight as to why all of her players hit the portal. They did not have a great season last year but they were very competitive. They won at Virginia by 15, won at Miami, clobbered Syracuse by 41, drubbed Clemson by 29, lost at Cal by 9 and at Stanford by 5, beat SMU and VT at home. They finished the conference losing the last regular season game at Syracuse by 25 - the turned around and beat them in the 1st round of the ACC tourney followed by a 7 point loss in the 2nd round to NC. They finished 12 - 5 at home and 3 - 10 on the road and obviously that's where the biggest problem was. I understand (expect) a few of the better players on a below average team to leave when very good schools come calling ( Todd to OH. ST. and Sidberry to TX) but this mass exodus smacks of something more. But since that's what happened let's take a look at the team for this year....

Back court : Tomlinson for sure, Carmody probable as starters. From there it's returning McGee, Houpt, Henderson, and McDaniel and the 2 freshmen Anderson and Grier. My money is on Anderson and whoever else is up in the air. That will give her 4 guards plus 5 reserves (counting the Lacrosse player) sahe can use in rotation. As bad as that is, there are only a few experienced guards over 5'6" in height. In the front court there are only 3 players : Edmonds (6'2") who will start and freshman Hall (6'3") along with mystery player Rolph (6'2").

Next to Wes Moore, Bernabei-McNamee is probably one of the better evaluators of "hidden" talent (or whoever does their scouting). Either that or she's great at developing talent. She usually only gets about one top 100 player/year and they are usually #70 or higher. Most are unranked. Yet year after year she ends up losing a player or two to "better" teams once that talent has blossomed. However, this is asking too much from any coach to do in a single year. Even with the turnover in GT and Miami and to a lesser degree at SMU I just can't see this team finishing anywhere other than dead last (18th).

BC updated assessment:
Well, so far BC is performing about as badly as expected with a (4 - 6) record up to this point. The starting five has also gone mostly as expected: A. Tomlinson (5'5" so G), L. Carmody (5'11" so G), and although freshman A. Anderson (5'11" G) is not starting she is usually the first player off the bench. K. Rolph (6'2" sr F) is starting rather than K. Edmonds(6'2" rs so F). Returning players T. McDaniel (5'9" gr G) and A. McGee (5'10" sr G) round out the starting group. Obviously, since you're in Boston it's required that you have a couple of good old Irish names starting 😉 . Reserves are freshman J. Grier(5'8" G), rs sr E. Houpt(5'6" G), and rs jr K. Henderson (5'6" G).

BC has no real height to speak of other than Rolph and a couple of freshmen players who aren't ready yet. Don't know what happened to Edmonds (injury?) and so there's no real depth in the paint to speak of. A big disadvantage heading in to conference play for sure on a team that is struggling with just beating inferior small school competition. They've already lost to some "average" teams by double digits so it's going to be a long season for them as I originally thought. The only things standing between them and last place is SMU and possibly GT.

Today's game is at home against Quinnipiac (3 - 3) an "average" team that I would expect them to lose to by double digits.

 

[Lorcan]

Wake Forest assessment update:
Up to this point WF has performed better than expected having already equaled their victory total from a year ago. Having said that, they haven't really played anyone of note outside of UCF whom they defeated by 5. Still, whatever Gebbia is doing as hc seems to be working so far as even with a weak schedule in past years they wouldn't have been 9 - 0 at this point. It was difficult to even speculate who her starting five would be heading in to the season but she seems to have settled on returnees K. Moore(6'2" so F) and A. Sorbye(5'9" so G), along with transfers M. Carter(6'3" jr G/F) and G. Oliver(6'1" so F) and freshman M. Brown(5'8" G). Fellow freshman C. Jones (5'8" G) is usually the first player off the bench and has added a much-needed scoring punch.

Probably the starting 5 will remain somewhat fluid as the team is made up of so many young players but it's likely about 10 players will see significant action this season with transfer R. Preston (5'11" rs jr G), returnee M. Jordan (6'1" jr G/F) providing veteran experience off the bench and freshmen Aussies S. Metcalfe (6'5" F) and O. Bird(6'3") providing height needed in the paint. Can Coach Gebbia turn this program around? So far the jury is still out until they actually play somebody but for now it seems like she's got this team headed in the right direction.

WF plays host to William&Mary (2 - 4) today so expect them to go 10 - 0 on the season - but still not really challenge themselves. We will re-evaluate at the mid-point of conference play to see how it's going.

William and Mary takes out the last ACC unbeaten and the season continues to be a shambles for the ACC.

 

[Geew1992]

BC updated assessment:
Well, so far BC is performing about as badly as expected with a (4 - 6) record up to this point. The starting five has also gone mostly as expected: A. Tomlinson (5'5" so G), L. Carmody (5'11" so G), and although freshman A. Anderson (5'11" G) is not starting she is usually the first player off the bench. K. Rolph (6'2" sr F) is starting rather than K. Edmonds(6'2" rs so F). Returning players T. McDaniel (5'9" gr G) and A. McGee (5'10" sr G) round out the starting group. Obviously, since you're in Boston it's required that you have a couple of good old Irish names starting 😉 . Reserves are freshman J. Grier(5'8" G), rs sr E. Houpt(5'6" G), and rs jr K. Henderson (5'6" G).

BC has no real height to speak of other than Rolph and a couple of freshmen players who aren't ready yet. Don't know what happened to Edmonds (injury?) and so there's no real depth in the paint to speak of. A big disadvantage heading in to conference play for sure on a team that is struggling with just beating inferior small school competition. They've already lost to some "average" teams by double digits so it's going to be a long season for them as I originally thought. The only things standing between them and last place is SMU and possibly GT.

Today's game is at home against Quinnipiac (3 - 3) an "average" team that I would expect them to lose to by double digits.

Welp...QU beat BC by a lot!

 

[Rooster C.]

Virginia is next.

Overall Virginia had some slight improvement over the previous year. They were unranked going in to the season and finished it unranked as well. Their season came to an end in the ACC tournament where they defeated Pitt and then lost to Cal in the next round by 17. Amaka Aguagua-Hamilton has done a fairly good job at Virginia so far especially considering where they were when she took over. Her overall win pct is .667 and .352 in conference. That doesn't sound great for an in conference record but she has improved each year of the 3 years she's been there from (15 - 15/ 4 -14) year one to (16 -16/ 7 - 11) year two to (17 - 15/ 8 - 10) last year. Where do they go this year ? Is more improvement in conference play possible ? Perhaps.

What was lost : The biggest loss is obviously the 2 starters L. Lattimore (Gr. 6'4" F 14.3ppg) to Ole Miss and E. Noyan from Sweden (Jr. 6'3" F 5.7ppg) to Indiana. Also lost was reserves T. Lauterbach (6'7" C 2.7ppg) to graduation and C. Valenti-Paea from Australia (Gr. 5'9" G) to the portal (Grand Canyon) as well as P. Dunbar (So. 5'11" G) transferred to Providence.

What returns: Coach Aguagua-Hamilton is in good shape with her 3 returning starters : Leading scorer K. Johnson( Jr. 5'7" G 17.9ppg), P. Clark (Sr. 5'8" G 10.3ppg), and O. McGhee (Jr. 6'2" G 7.7ppg). Also back is first player off the bench B. Hurd (So. 6'2" F 9.4ppg). And that's it - 4 returning players.

Incoming transfers : 8 players. They are R. Dias Dos Santos (rs Sr. 5'9" G 2.6ppg) from rival FSU via Brazil, J. Brown (Gr. 5'11" G 5.7ppg) from NW, C. Weimar (Gr. 6'4" F 18.7ppg) from NC ST(sort of), R. Levy (Gr. 6'3" G/F 7.1ppg) from S.Fla./Israel, D. Arigabu (Gr. 6'4" F 3.0ppg) from W.V./Germany, T. Amanze (Sr. 6'4" F 6.0ppg) from Princeton/Nigeria, S. Smith (rs Jr. 6'2" F 6.6ppg) from LSU, and A. Ring (So. 6'5" F 3.7ppg) from UCF/Australia. Quite the TALL international group !

Incoming freshmen: #94 G. White (5'10" G).

Clearly Aguagua-Hamilton's best recruiting year was her first with two ranked players/starters in #24 K. Johnson and #45 O. McGhee. Adding #21 ranked P. Clark to the roster 2 years ago from AZ and #38 L.Lattimore from the portal last year from Miami. Last year's recruit #99 B. Hurd has been an important addition. Unfortunately as she's continued to improve her record slightly each year her recruiting has gone the other direction. Two players ranked #24 and #45 to one player ranked #99 to this year also with one player ranked #94. If she can't reverse that trend in 2026 - and all signs point to it being unlikely - she will have to live and die with the portal.

And speaking of the portal I confess I don't understand what she's going after this year - 6 players that play the power forward/center position ?! And 6 players who will not be returning after the season ends?! While she'll probably be okay this year with a solid core of 4 players/3 starters returning and maybe even next year if everything goes just right - after that she'll start to run in to trouble. It's difficult enough combining 8 incoming players but when they're from 6 different cultures and 6 of them will be fighting for minutes at essentially the same position? A LOT can go wrong over the course of a season.

My best guess is we'll see returning starters K. Johnson and P. Clark in the back court along with J. Brown from NW. Dos Santos will come in off the bench along with Hurd seeing extensive minutes again as "6th man" but they are one injury away from being in serious trouble in the back court. Last year Virginia ran with 2 front court players in Lattimore and Noyan with Lauterbach off the bench. With those 3 gone I'd expect a similar line up this year. Most likely it will be some combo of Amanze/Levy/Smith with Arigbadu and Ring seeing limited minutes.

If this team gels early enough they could improve once again. The returning core is solid and experienced and K. Johnson is a special talent. Smith has a lot of untapped upside and Levy and Amanze are decent players with lots of experience. I didn't mention Weimar because her best year was 2 years ago at Boston U. She has been injured since then and hasn't played against this level of competition yet so she's a complete unknown/wild card. But unless she's THE dominant big early on I can't see where she gets any playing time. I think fewer bigs and more guards/wings would have been more helpful and also more players who weren't just one year rentals. I think that would have added more stability to the program. They will be competitive this year no doubt but it's difficult to see them making any kind of a leap forward when at best they will have pretty much the same team as last year. As with many ACC teams this coming year a handful of games will decide their fate. Consistency and progression will be key. I would expect a similar finish to last season somewhere between 8th and 12th.

Virginia is about where I expected them to be although so far they have avoided playing any ranked teams. Their unexpected loss to UMBC is an early warning sign that they may not be improving.

At this point Virginia is (6 - 2) with the loss above and a loss to Nebraska on a neutral court by 9 points (82 - 91). Doesn't seem like there was much defense being played on either side in that game. K. Johnson (5'7" jr G) is a very,very talented player but does not seem to be capable of pushing her team to the next level. She will definitely fill up the stat sheet to be sure but it's not going to be enough for their team to excel. She is the reason they lost to UMBC, going 1 for 16 and 0 frr 9 from 3 in that game. It's hard to imagine her having a game like that in this point of her career. She played overall pretty well against Nebraska (who is a likely tournament team) but had 8 turnovers and 4 fouls. Starting alongside her is returning starter P. Clark (5'8" sr G) who has played well but fouled out late in the game against Nebraska. Amanze seems to have won the "battle of the bigs" for the starting role but she fouled out in the loss to UMBC and had 4 fouls against Nebraska. As expected transfers J. Brown(5'11" gr G) and R. Levy(6'3" gr G/F). Key reserves would appear to be G. White, their only incoming freshman (5'10" G) -who naturally commits a lot of fouls - along with incoming transfers R. Dos Santos(5'9" rs jr G), C. Weimar (6'4" gr F), and A. Ring(6'5" so F).

I'm not seeing Hurd playing at all and don't know if that's due to injury or better options or just being in the old doghouse. Same goes for S. Smith from LSU. I expected contributions from those 2 players this season. Also, mainstay O. McGhee has also seen very little playing time. Those 3 will all still be around next year when K. Johnson hits her final year and you would think building some chemistry for next season would be somewhat of a priority.

At this point I don't think Virginia will get any better this season and likely will get worse. I see the same inconsistencies as a year ago and similar issues. That's coaching - or lack of it I'm afraid. I had some hopes for Virginia to improve this year but I'm just not seeing it. Looks like another year they won't be going to the NCAA tourney.

Tonight Virginia plays at Vandy, and while I think Vandy is over-rated, I expect Virginia to lose by double digits.

 

[Rooster C.]

William and Mary takes out the last ACC unbeaten and the season continues to be a shambles for the ACC.

Well that was pathetic - even for WF!