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Not surprisingly that Duke/WV game is getting heavy highlight rotation on sportscenter. A lot of bad publicity for Duke. I wonder if Bella Flemings has signed yet........
Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26
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I like Lawson as a tv personality but this isn’t working.
Lawson did just win the ACC tournament last year and made an elite 8.
I’m not going to argue about her coaching talents or not, but it’s 4 games into the season. I’m shocked Duke lost to a WV team playing 5 players half the game - that’s an egg on the face about as bad as it gets unless you lose to NCCU or the like. But I’ll let the season play out a little more before I come to any definitive conclusions.
I will say Lawsons teams are putting together a lot of evidence of really struggling to score it. Duke produces some real stinkers offensively every season that are hard to watch. Of course they’ll drop 80 next time they play State since I pointed that out, but that is a real bugaboo for them.
I’m not going to argue about her coaching talents or not, but it’s 4 games into the season. I’m shocked Duke lost to a WV team playing 5 players half the game - that’s an egg on the face about as bad as it gets unless you lose to NCCU or the like. But I’ll let the season play out a little more before I come to any definitive conclusions.
I will say Lawsons teams are putting together a lot of evidence of really struggling to score it. Duke produces some real stinkers offensively every season that are hard to watch. Of course they’ll drop 80 next time they play State since I pointed that out, but that is a real bugaboo for them.
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Ironically, Megan McKeown has Stanford as a sleeper team in the ACC this season. Caught me by surprise during the half time show last night.
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A few random stats regarding Stanford - who after 6 games has yet to play anyone challenging. In their first 3 games (all at home) They averaged 85.3ppg, shot an average of 61.7 times at 48.8%fg and shot an average of 19.7 3-pointers at 42.4%.
Their last 3 games (2 on the road, 1 home) they averaged 63.0ppg (a drop of over 22ppg), averaged 56 shots ( a drop of 5.7/gm) at 42.3% (a drop of 6.5%fg),and have averaged 15.7 3-pointers ( a drop of 4.0/gm) at 19.1% (a drop of 23.3%). Assuming there is SOME drop off on the road and that their last 3 opponents were somewhat better than the first 3 - so again, some drop off is expected - STILL this is going in the wrong direction. They haven't scored over 70 points in their last 3 games and that 3-point shooting is pretty atrocious. Stanford's next 3 opponents aren't challenging either. Then they host Tennessee.
While they will undoubtedly get up for the SEC/ACC challenge game at home, it is followed by home games against Cal (their first conference game) and Washington before heading down the road to SF to play Oregon.
This is followed by one more patsy at home before heading out to begin the New Year with back-to-back games on the road at NC State and NC.
I can't help but feel that playing 10 out of your first 14 games at home (plus 1 in SF) is not going to set this team up for success heading in to their conference season. Luckily, what looked like some of their toughest opponents are home games and those tough opponents (Duke,ND) aren't looking quite so tough any longer. They have a very good chance of going 12 - 6 in conference games which should put them in the tournament IF - IF - IF - they don't continue to backslide.
Their last 3 games (2 on the road, 1 home) they averaged 63.0ppg (a drop of over 22ppg), averaged 56 shots ( a drop of 5.7/gm) at 42.3% (a drop of 6.5%fg),and have averaged 15.7 3-pointers ( a drop of 4.0/gm) at 19.1% (a drop of 23.3%). Assuming there is SOME drop off on the road and that their last 3 opponents were somewhat better than the first 3 - so again, some drop off is expected - STILL this is going in the wrong direction. They haven't scored over 70 points in their last 3 games and that 3-point shooting is pretty atrocious. Stanford's next 3 opponents aren't challenging either. Then they host Tennessee.
While they will undoubtedly get up for the SEC/ACC challenge game at home, it is followed by home games against Cal (their first conference game) and Washington before heading down the road to SF to play Oregon.
This is followed by one more patsy at home before heading out to begin the New Year with back-to-back games on the road at NC State and NC.
I can't help but feel that playing 10 out of your first 14 games at home (plus 1 in SF) is not going to set this team up for success heading in to their conference season. Luckily, what looked like some of their toughest opponents are home games and those tough opponents (Duke,ND) aren't looking quite so tough any longer. They have a very good chance of going 12 - 6 in conference games which should put them in the tournament IF - IF - IF - they don't continue to backslide.
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On the eve of the SEC/ACC challenge games this seems like a good time to take another look at things in the conference. The ACC has been getting a fair amount of bad press lately between the downturn of Duke, ND, NC State and the overall performance against ranked teams. Some or most of this criticism is justified but also some of it isn't so I think some perspective is called for.
Overall the ACC is a combined (2 - 18) vs ranked opponents, the SEC is (5 - 5), the Big Ten is (8 - 8), the Big 12 is (3 - 6), and the Big East is (4 - 3) overall. So although the ACC record is not very good thus far, at least it can be said that they're not afraid to play ranked opponents in non-conference games - at least double the amount of games compared to the vaunted SEC conference. Another point to be made is that 10 different ACC teams have played at least one ranked opponent, while only 5 SEC schools have played ranked opponents. Although the Big 12 has played a total of 9 ranked opponents at least 7 different schools have done so compared to the SEC's 5. The Big Ten has done decently having played 16 opponents overall divided among 9 different schools. The Big East has played the fewest but has the best overall W - L record and their 7 total games isn't that far behind the 9 of the Big 12 or the 10 of the SEC.
Of the SEC overall 10 games vs ranked opponents 3 are by Texas (and 3 of the 5 wins), 2 by SC (1 - 1), 2 by KY (1 - 1), and 2 by TN (0 - 2). So out of the 10 total games played against ranked opponents, 4 teams accounted for 9 of those games - four teams out of 16!! Of the Big Ten games (16 total), 4 were played by UCLA (3 - 1), 3 by USC (1 - 2), 2 by Michigan (1 - 1), 2 by Ohio St (1 - 1), and 2 by Utah (0 - 2). MD and IA are (1 - 0), and IN, WI, PUR are all (0 - 1). By contrast, of the 16 games vs ranked opponents 10 different teams accounted for those 16 games.
As for the ACC's 20 games vs ranked opponents, NC ST (1 - 2) DUKE (0 - 3), and CLEM (0 -3) accounted for 9 of those, Notre Dame (1 - 1), Louisville (0 - 2), Miami (0 - 2), and Florida State (0 - 2) accounted for another 8, with 3 other schools adding 1 game each.
When you look at each conference it's the teams who have been willing to play ranked opponents in these non-conference games are the teams most likely to make the NCAA and do some damage once they get there. SEC teams: Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. I'm not saying LSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Alabama and/or Georgia won't make the tourney but look at the difference already. Big Ten: UCLA, USC, Michigan, Ohio St, followed by Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana. Again, I would expect Washington, Nebraska, Oregon, Michigan State, and possibly Minnesota to be there but there's a noticeable difference. The Big 12 is an aberration - Baylor has played 2 (1 -1), with TCU (1 - 0) and WV (1 - 0) one each, and Iowa St and Okla St not having played anyone yet. There may be a couple of other teams that make the tourney but not any school I can point to at the moment (Utah is 0-2, KSU, Colorado, and BYU are all 0-1 and don't look great).
When it comes to the ACC we're looking at NC ST, DUKE, ND, Louisville, Miami,Clemson, and NC, followed by Syracuse, and possibly FSU. I honestly don't think Syracuse and FSU will make it and likely be replaced by Stanford, Virginia, or Virginia Tech. Cal is a remote possibility.
So there you have it. The ACC gets a bad rap but if you compare them to the other conferences they stack up pretty well. They have more teams (10) already battle-tested before conference play begins compared to the Big Ten (9), the Big 12 (7), and the SEC (5). My next post will cover the SEC/ACC challenge games and who I think will win.
Overall the ACC is a combined (2 - 18) vs ranked opponents, the SEC is (5 - 5), the Big Ten is (8 - 8), the Big 12 is (3 - 6), and the Big East is (4 - 3) overall. So although the ACC record is not very good thus far, at least it can be said that they're not afraid to play ranked opponents in non-conference games - at least double the amount of games compared to the vaunted SEC conference. Another point to be made is that 10 different ACC teams have played at least one ranked opponent, while only 5 SEC schools have played ranked opponents. Although the Big 12 has played a total of 9 ranked opponents at least 7 different schools have done so compared to the SEC's 5. The Big Ten has done decently having played 16 opponents overall divided among 9 different schools. The Big East has played the fewest but has the best overall W - L record and their 7 total games isn't that far behind the 9 of the Big 12 or the 10 of the SEC.
Of the SEC overall 10 games vs ranked opponents 3 are by Texas (and 3 of the 5 wins), 2 by SC (1 - 1), 2 by KY (1 - 1), and 2 by TN (0 - 2). So out of the 10 total games played against ranked opponents, 4 teams accounted for 9 of those games - four teams out of 16!! Of the Big Ten games (16 total), 4 were played by UCLA (3 - 1), 3 by USC (1 - 2), 2 by Michigan (1 - 1), 2 by Ohio St (1 - 1), and 2 by Utah (0 - 2). MD and IA are (1 - 0), and IN, WI, PUR are all (0 - 1). By contrast, of the 16 games vs ranked opponents 10 different teams accounted for those 16 games.
As for the ACC's 20 games vs ranked opponents, NC ST (1 - 2) DUKE (0 - 3), and CLEM (0 -3) accounted for 9 of those, Notre Dame (1 - 1), Louisville (0 - 2), Miami (0 - 2), and Florida State (0 - 2) accounted for another 8, with 3 other schools adding 1 game each.
When you look at each conference it's the teams who have been willing to play ranked opponents in these non-conference games are the teams most likely to make the NCAA and do some damage once they get there. SEC teams: Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. I'm not saying LSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Alabama and/or Georgia won't make the tourney but look at the difference already. Big Ten: UCLA, USC, Michigan, Ohio St, followed by Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana. Again, I would expect Washington, Nebraska, Oregon, Michigan State, and possibly Minnesota to be there but there's a noticeable difference. The Big 12 is an aberration - Baylor has played 2 (1 -1), with TCU (1 - 0) and WV (1 - 0) one each, and Iowa St and Okla St not having played anyone yet. There may be a couple of other teams that make the tourney but not any school I can point to at the moment (Utah is 0-2, KSU, Colorado, and BYU are all 0-1 and don't look great).
When it comes to the ACC we're looking at NC ST, DUKE, ND, Louisville, Miami,Clemson, and NC, followed by Syracuse, and possibly FSU. I honestly don't think Syracuse and FSU will make it and likely be replaced by Stanford, Virginia, or Virginia Tech. Cal is a remote possibility.
So there you have it. The ACC gets a bad rap but if you compare them to the other conferences they stack up pretty well. They have more teams (10) already battle-tested before conference play begins compared to the Big Ten (9), the Big 12 (7), and the SEC (5). My next post will cover the SEC/ACC challenge games and who I think will win.
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I'm confident that NC State will be a solid tourney team by season's end. It is taking some time for new players to get acclimated to the higher level of play, returning players to accept their new roles and for everyone to play together. There are no seniors on this team.
I'm looking forward to seeing NC State tonight against Oklahoma. I expect to see lots of Mallory Collier, Maddie Cox and Lorena Awou helping deflect some of the pressure off Tilda Trygger and accumulating fouls I know will come with trying to defend Reagan Beers.
I'm looking forward to seeing NC State tonight against Oklahoma. I expect to see lots of Mallory Collier, Maddie Cox and Lorena Awou helping deflect some of the pressure off Tilda Trygger and accumulating fouls I know will come with trying to defend Reagan Beers.
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Very interesting analysis. The first thing that occurs to me on reading it is that while some of the usual powerhouses seem to be dominating (eg UConn SC Texas) and others seem less dominant though still capable (eg UCLA LSU Iowa USC), and several appear to be in a significant slump (eg Duke ND Arizona Va Tech Creighton SDSU), a few new names have crept into the picture and seem to be rising powers, like Michigan MSU Oklahoma Kentucky TCU. Some of this may just be early season noise and artifacts of unusual OOC scheduling. And there’s plenty of room to disagree about exactly who’s up and who’s down.
The second thing that catches the eye is that D1 WCBB seems to be undergoing some sort of reshuffle. Could this be a moment in which the usual power relationships are undergoing a more farreaching transformation? I mean, the P4 conferences are stocked with large schools with deep pockets, and that suggests long term stability. But not all ADs allocate funds uniformly across their programs and some turbulence is possible among them. Also, coaching changes may have an incremental impact. Kenny Brooks going to Kentucky springs to mind, or Mark Campbell at TCU. Is the landscape of WCBB changing before our eyes?
I think without a doubt the landscape is changing. It’s already happened IMO. TCU is a great example. Clearly they have put resources into the WBB program. This isn’t simply a case of having a couple of good players in a recruiting class and that core having a moment. While it’s been only 2 years now, these are completely different rosters and cores. They went out and landed Hailey Van Lith last year and I’d guess that wasn’t cheap. This year went got Suarez who I know for a fact NC State wanted and I’m sure other programs did as well. And then got Olivia Miles from Notre Dame. Miles and Hailey Van Lith specifically were very known commodities who i can’t imagine came cheap. TCU has a great coach and also have invested in NIL for WBB and as long as that stays, they will stay in the national landscape.
The ACC is struggling this year in large part because they lost top end coaching and players over the last 2 years. And I don’t mean to graduation and retirement. VT was a national player under Kenny Brooks, he leaves for Kentucky and a pay raise and took his best player with him. It’s no coincidence that Kentucky is back on the map and VT has fallen off. FSU and ND in theory had 2 of the top 5 returning players in the nation this year in Latson and Miles. Instead of being in the ACC they are now in other conferences. Saurez, Koval, Kara Dunn, Tyana Todd, Lattimore, Tonie Morgan, Nya Robertson, Danielle Carnegie and Okananwa are other examples of top talent leaving the conference.
It’s normal in today’s world to lose players, but the thing is the conference didn’t replace with the same type talent. Pierre coming to State is about the lone example of incoming upgrades. Skylar Jones, Ra Shaya Kyle, Iyana Moore, Laila Phelia and Sa’Myah Smith are the only other ones even in the conversation.
FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are all examples of players and coaches leaving that have severely hampered their immediate futures. Notre Dame too.
It does appear Clemson is on the rise, Miami and UVa also seem to have put money into their programs. The ACC has a brighter future ahead with some nice recruiting classes coming in next year, the question will be can they keep that talent when it blossoms? Will programs put the necessary money up to retain those star recruits when they are rising juniors and seniors and TCU, LSU, SC, USC and the like come calling with big checks? I hope so. ACC WBB has been extremely fun over the years and highly competitive nationally. I hope it doesn’t turn into a feeder conference for other programs.
I agree with your post - the only thing I wonder about is Awou. She flashed a lot of potential at times last year but she’s clearly in the doghouse. She didn’t dress in Cancun, coach’s decision. Is she available tonight?
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This SEC/ACC challenge will be interesting to see how it plays out today and tomorrow.
Vandy v. Virginia is easily a Vandy win
Georgia v. FSU is a toss up as I think FSU is better as they have played better teams but....
Kentucky v. Miami is a win for Kentucky
Auburn v. Syracuse is probably a Syracuse win at home.
NC State v. Oklahoma, despite our @LETTERL and @FanInNC optimism, tonight is not the moment when the Wolfpack put it together
Georgia Tech v. Texas A&M is a toss up. I despise Joni Taylor and that over inflated contract and she will eventually get the boot but tonight -who knows.
Tennessee v. Stanford is probably Tennessee but I will be rooting hard for the Cardinal!
Wed score is 4-1 and 2 toss up games
Thursday has this slate
Florida v. Virginia Tech is probably a Hokie win
UNC v. Texas is a Texas blow out
SC v. Louisville is an SC win
Pitt v. MSU is an easy MSU win
Arkansas v. SMU is probably a Razorback win but I may let our @azfan opinine on the "Fashionista" outfit...
Clemson v, Alabama is an Alabama win
LSU v. Duke that while LSU's first real test and on the road no less, this should be an easy win for the Tigers.
ND v. Ole Miss is a toss up. It's on the road and who know if HH can get any support.
Cal v. Missouri has mean leaning Cal's way.
Thur score is 6-2 and 1 toss up game
Overall is 10-3 and 3 with my guess of 11-5 in favor of the SEC when all is said and done.
Vandy v. Virginia is easily a Vandy win
Georgia v. FSU is a toss up as I think FSU is better as they have played better teams but....
Kentucky v. Miami is a win for Kentucky
Auburn v. Syracuse is probably a Syracuse win at home.
NC State v. Oklahoma, despite our @LETTERL and @FanInNC optimism, tonight is not the moment when the Wolfpack put it together
Georgia Tech v. Texas A&M is a toss up. I despise Joni Taylor and that over inflated contract and she will eventually get the boot but tonight -who knows.
Tennessee v. Stanford is probably Tennessee but I will be rooting hard for the Cardinal!
Wed score is 4-1 and 2 toss up games
Thursday has this slate
Florida v. Virginia Tech is probably a Hokie win
UNC v. Texas is a Texas blow out
SC v. Louisville is an SC win
Pitt v. MSU is an easy MSU win
Arkansas v. SMU is probably a Razorback win but I may let our @azfan opinine on the "Fashionista" outfit...
Clemson v, Alabama is an Alabama win
LSU v. Duke that while LSU's first real test and on the road no less, this should be an easy win for the Tigers.
ND v. Ole Miss is a toss up. It's on the road and who know if HH can get any support.
Cal v. Missouri has mean leaning Cal's way.
Thur score is 6-2 and 1 toss up game
Overall is 10-3 and 3 with my guess of 11-5 in favor of the SEC when all is said and done.
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I'm inclined to agree with you on my Wolfpack. Big picture, I'm optimistic they get things figured out and round into form. Tonight? Not as confident. Not sure how they will hand Beers down low. Tilda is a very nice player, but she's very much a finesse player. This is a match up where the Pack really could use Awou, however Awou has not progressed from her Freshman year to her Sophomore year the way I would have hoped. She also is currently in the doghouse and I'm not even sure if she is available for tonight or not. Mallory Collier should get a look tonight, but she's not really proven to be a defensive minded player, maybe Maddie Cox will get a shot at guarding Beers, she is tough and plays solid defense, but not sure she can match up physically with Beers.
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While most have talked about dealing with Beers defensively, I'm curious as to how NC State deals with her from on offensive perspective . Will they try to go at her and see if they can get her into foul trouble?
Sometimes Beers gets caught flat footed and picks up bad fouls. Not sure if it's feasible, but it's been in the back of my mind when I think of this match up.
Could be interesting. Looking over her game log, it appears she's only been in foul trouble once - last game against FSU she had 4. I didn't see that game, not sure how they attacked her or what those fouls were like. State has not exactly posted their bigs up much this year...or last year. However, from what I've heard, they did a little more of that in Cancun last week with success. Those games were on FloTV and I didn't break down and pay to watch, so only heard them on the radio. They were also against Green Bay and Southern Miss, so probably a lot easier to post them compared to a team like Oklahoma.
It's not really something Tilda has done much in her career at State so far. She seems much more comfortable floating around the perimeter and playing face up or rolling to the basket. Could they potentially get Beers in pick and rolls and try to attack her that way? Will be interesting to watch.
Seeing where Oklahoma is a 9.5 point favorite. Gonna be a tough one.
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Wake Forest assessment update:
Up to this point WF has performed better than expected having already equaled their victory total from a year ago. Having said that, they haven't really played anyone of note outside of UCF whom they defeated by 5. Still, whatever Gebbia is doing as hc seems to be working so far as even with a weak schedule in past years they wouldn't have been 9 - 0 at this point. It was difficult to even speculate who her starting five would be heading in to the season but she seems to have settled on returnees K. Moore(6'2" so F) and A. Sorbye(5'9" so G), along with transfers M. Carter(6'3" jr G/F) and G. Oliver(6'1" so F) and freshman M. Brown(5'8" G). Fellow freshman C. Jones (5'8" G) is usually the first player off the bench and has added a much-needed scoring punch.
Probably the starting 5 will remain somewhat fluid as the team is made up of so many young players but it's likely about 10 players will see significant action this season with transfer R. Preston (5'11" rs jr G), returnee M. Jordan (6'1" jr G/F) providing veteran experience off the bench and freshmen Aussies S. Metcalfe (6'5" F) and O. Bird(6'3") providing height needed in the paint. Can Coach Gebbia turn this program around? So far the jury is still out until they actually play somebody but for now it seems like she's got this team headed in the right direction.
WF plays host to William&Mary (2 - 4) today so expect them to go 10 - 0 on the season - but still not really challenge themselves. We will re-evaluate at the mid-point of conference play to see how it's going.