Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26 | The Boneyard

Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.
 
Rooster C. said:
First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.
Expand ...
Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.
 
mudcat said:
Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.
Expand ...
I believe he'll stick with a 3 - guard offense and hope to get some fast break opportunities. I think with a duo of Trygger/Pierre he is hoping to get as much production in the paint this year as he did from the perimeter last year. Many of the ACC teams have demonstrated difficulty in putting up a lot of points - including some of the top teams - and now that ND lost so much to the portal and Latson left FSU (along with most of their offense as well) - this year's team may not need to score as many points to win games. Also, that home arena is a real advantage so there's that. Going in to the 2023-24 season they were not ranked in the pre-season poll and finished in the Final Four so Wes has a way of getting the most out of his players.
 
Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.
 
Rooster C. said:
Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.
Expand ...
Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.
 
Bone Dog said:
Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.
Expand ...
Regarding Fournier, I'm looking forward to seeing how she does this year. She wasn't involved with Canada Basketball like she has in the past. As this is the first time she hasn't been involved with the program during the off-season, it will be interesting to see how she's progressed and what she worked on.
 
These r great. Thanks for taking the time to write these breakdowns.

I like NC State more and more by the day. They did lose 2 Wnba players but I just like their roster a lot. Good point about Trigger and Pierre and also they do have serviceable backups. Although they lost the 2 guards I actually think they are still quite talented at the guard position. The only thing I kinda worry about is I really don't know who their best player is (probably Pierre who is a transfer), and like the pecking order of it all. Wes has managed balance rosters in the recent past, but idk.

I've said a bunch this summer I really like Duke. I didn't realize Fournier stayed at Duke this summer although I didn't see her in the various fiba tournaments. I know they lost some good players, but I do believe Roberson, Riley Nelson and Skinner will all be really good this season. I do worry a bit about perimeter shooting. But I just like there athleticism and size. I'd be surprised if they regressed this season.

What about that other team nearby Duke.
 
TheFarmFan said:
You mean Wake? Let's not trigger @triaddukefan just when we were all saying nice things about the Blue Devils. 😁
Expand ...

A diehard Tarheel alum gave me a really nice birthday gift last month , surprisingly it was a Duke lawn/arm char. So until the end of Leo season I won't be triggered by any positive mentions of that institution. (Don't test me though)
 
jdote33 said:
What about that other team nearby Duke.
Expand ...
Funny you should mention that team......they're up next!

North Carolina was ranked #15 in the pre-season and in the final poll were ranked #14. Their season was ended by arch rival Duke in a Sweet 16 showdown. Courtney Banghart has had her teams in the NCAA tournament 5/6 years since she took over the program - the only exception being the covid year (which was her first year at the helm) so that doesn't really count. In those 5 appearances her teams have lost in the 1st round once, the 2nd round twice, and the S16 twice, including last years' team. She has an overall .661 win pct. and a .589 conference win pct. which ranks her 6th overall among current ACC coaches.

NC lost a lot from last years' team : Ustby - the swiss army knife (10.9ppg), Gakdeng - their best post player (10.8ppg) and Donarski - the 3-pt sniper (10.7ppg). Additionally, they lost G. Townsend (an experienced bench player 4.2ppg) and T. Crisp (to Miss.St. via the portal 5.6ppg) who provided solid minutes. The good news is they return 2 of their 5 starters in R. Kelly (no, not that R. Kelly 😉 ) a 5'7" jr. G (9.6ppg) and I. Nivar a 5'10"sr. G (8.3ppg) as well as a fair number of players with a lot of playing experience. Chief among them is L. Grant a 5'9" so. G (7.3ppg) who can easily step in to a starting role and B. Thomas a 6'5" so. C (2.4ppg) and C. Toomey a 6'4" rs so. F (3.2ppg) who can alternate at the post to (hopefully) replace Gakdeng's production/defense. There are also 2 additional reserve guards in L. Hull a rs so. (6'1" 2.6ppg) and J. Zubich another so. (5'11")
The biggest unknown is K. McPherson (rs sr. 5'8" G) . The oft injured player was at one time a dynamic playmaker. If she can return to form the former #17 ranked player could give NC a huge boost. Finally their is S. Barker, an early walk on player now a jr. (5'7" G 1.7ppg).

Banghart did not stand pat but added 2 players from the portal. To shore up post play she added the experienced sr. from Louisville Nyla Harris who at 6'2" averaged 8.6ppg and a very good guard from Finland (via UCLA) Elina AArnisalo (5'10" so. 5.1ppg) who appeared in all 37 games (10 starts) at UCLA a year ago. Add to this 3 incoming freshmen : #13 ranked Nyla Brooks (6'1" G), #27 ranked Taliyah Henderson 6'0" W), and #77 ranked Taissa Queiroz (6'1" G) .

As with NC State and Duke, the loss of key experienced starters poses some real challenges for the coming year. Banghart's teams have so far over the past years been somewhat "offensively challenged" . In tournament play they have only surpassed 70 pts twice - both times in 1st round play. Her teams inability to get past the S16 is due in large part to this lack of offensive production I believe. Then again if she can keep from having to play SC in the earlier rounds of the tournament may help as well 😉

In the final analysis I think Banghart is an excellent recruiter and starting off with really great talent can go a long way towards continued success (UConn). I'm not yet sure about her coaching acumen beyond a certain point but the jury's still out on whether she can be an elite coach. She has the talent and the depth to compete in the ACC this year and I expect NC to be among the top 5 once again. I think their post play is a little suspect but they do have the pieces. Only time will tell if it's enough or if NC will once again reach the S16 only to bow out. IF everything goes well I think that's the best they can do this season and a 2nd round loss in the tourney is more likely. We shall see.
 
Last edited:
Rooster C. said:
Funny you should mention that team......they're up next!

North Carolina was ranked #15 in the pre-season and in the final poll were ranked #14. Their season was ended by arch rival Duke in a Sweet 16 showdown. Courtney Banghart has had her teams in the NCAA tournament 5/6 years since she took over the program - the only exception being the covid year (which was her first year at the helm) so that doesn't really count. In those 5 appearances her teams have lost in the 1st round once, the 2nd round twice, and the S16 twice, including last years' team. She has an overall .661 win pct. and a .589 conference win pct. which ranks her 6th overall among current ACC coaches.

NC lost a lot from last years' team : Ustby - the swiss army knife (10.9ppg), Gakdeng - their best post player (10.8ppg) and Donarski - the 3-pt sniper (10.7ppg). Additionally, they lost G. Townsend (an experienced bench player 4.2ppg) and T. Crisp (to Miss.St. via the portal 5.6ppg) who provided solid minutes. The good news is they return 2 of their 5 starters in R. Kelly (no, not that R. Kelly 😉 ) a 5'7" jr. G (9.6ppg) and I. Nivar a 5'10"sr. G (8.3ppg) as well as a fair number of players with a lot of playing experience. Chief among them is L. Grant a 5'9" so. G (7.3ppg) who can easily step in to a starting role and B. Thomas a 6'5" so. C (2.4ppg) and C. Toomey a 6'4" rs so. F (3.2ppg) who can alternate at the post to (hopefully) replace Gakdeng's production/defense. There are also 2 additional reserve guards in L. Hull a rs so. (6'1" 2.6ppg) and J. Zubich another so. (5'11")
The biggest unknown is K. McPherson (rs sr. 5'8" G) . The oft injured player was at one time a dynamic playmaker. If she can return to form the former #17 ranked player could give NC a huge boost. Finally their is S. Barker, an early walk on player now a jr. (5'7" G 1.7ppg).

Banghart did not stand pat but added 2 players from the portal. To shore up post play she added the experienced sr. from Louisville Nyla Harris who at 6'2" averaged 8.6ppg and a very good guard from Finland (via UCLA) Elina AArnisalo (5'10" so. 5.1ppg) who appeared in all 37 games (10 starts) at UCLA a year ago. Add to this 3 incoming freshmen : #13 ranked Nyla Brooks (6'1" G), #27 ranked Taliyah Henderson 6'0" W), and #77 ranked Taissa Queiroz (6'1" G) .

As with NC State and Duke, the loss of key experienced starters poses some real challenges for the coming year. Banghart's teams have so far over the past years been somewhat "offensively challenged" . In tournament play they have only surpassed 70 pts twice - both times in 1st round play. Her teams inability to get past the S16 is due in large part to this lack of offensive production I believe. Then again if she can keep from having to play SC in the earlier rounds of the tournament may help as well 😉

In the final analysis I think Banghart is an excellent recruiter and starting off with really great talent can go a long way towards continued success (UConn). I'm not yet sure about her coaching acumen beyond a certain point but the jury's still out on whether she can be an elite coach. She has the talent and the depth to compete in the ACC this year and I expect NC to be among the top 5 once again. I think their post play is a little suspect but they do have the pieces. Only time will tell if it's enough or if NC will once again reach the S16 only to bow out. IF everything goes well I think that's the best they can do this season and a 2nd round loss in the tourney is more likely. We shall see.
Expand ...
Another excellent analysis. The losses are significant but not necessarily devastating. Like the departure of Deja the previous year, the departure of Gakdeng and Donarski may actually clear the deck for Kelly and Nivar to lead the team in the backcourt with Grant and (maybe) McPherson. There’s some ‘if’s’ in this scenario, just as there are in the frontcourt with Toomey and Thomas replacing Gakdeng altogether. But also some hopeful signs. To me, the most difficult one to replace is Ustby. Players like her don’t come along everyday. Indya has a similar scrappiness though not Alyssa’s size. Could she provide a similar spark? And the addition of Arnisalo may prove decisive.

One thing I like is that Courtney has once again put together a roster without incorporating a ball-dominant player. I am also very curious to see if Blanca and Ciera can seize the moment with a sophomore leap. Those two could be on the verge of something great. And will Courtney also experiment more freely with a twin towers offense?
 
Rooster C. said:
Funny you should mention that team......they're up next!

North Carolina was ranked #15 in the pre-season and in the final poll were ranked #14. Their season was ended by arch rival Duke in a Sweet 16 showdown. Courtney Banghart has had her teams in the NCAA tournament 5/6 years since she took over the program - the only exception being the covid year (which was her first year at the helm) so that doesn't really count. In those 5 appearances her teams have lost in the 1st round once, the 2nd round twice, and the S16 twice, including last years' team. She has an overall .661 win pct. and a .589 conference win pct. which ranks her 6th overall among current ACC coaches.

NC lost a lot from last years' team : Ustby - the swiss army knife (10.9ppg), Gakdeng - their best post player (10.8ppg) and Donarski - the 3-pt sniper (10.7ppg). Additionally, they lost G. Townsend (an experienced bench player 4.2ppg) and T. Crisp (to Miss.St. via the portal 5.6ppg) who provided solid minutes. The good news is they return 2 of their 5 starters in R. Kelly (no, not that R. Kelly 😉 ) a 5'7" jr. G (9.6ppg) and I. Nivar a 5'10"sr. G (8.3ppg) as well as a fair number of players with a lot of playing experience. Chief among them is L. Grant a 5'9" so. G (7.3ppg) who can easily step in to a starting role and B. Thomas a 6'5" so. C (2.4ppg) and C. Toomey a 6'4" rs so. F (3.2ppg) who can alternate at the post to (hopefully) replace Gakdeng's production/defense. There are also 2 additional reserve guards in L. Hull a rs so. (6'1" 2.6ppg) and J. Zubich another so. (5'11")
The biggest unknown is K. McPherson (rs sr. 5'8" G) . The oft injured player was at one time a dynamic playmaker. If she can return to form the former #17 ranked player could give NC a huge boost. Finally their is S. Barker, an early walk on player now a jr. (5'7" G 1.7ppg).

Banghart did not stand pat but added 2 players from the portal. To shore up post play she added the experienced sr. from Louisville Nyla Harris who at 6'2" averaged 8.6ppg and a very good guard from Finland (via UCLA) Elina AArnisalo (5'10" so. 5.1ppg) who appeared in all 37 games (10 starts) at UCLA a year ago. Add to this 3 incoming freshmen : #13 ranked Nyla Brooks (6'1" G), #27 ranked Taliyah Henderson 6'0" W), and #77 ranked Taissa Queiroz (6'1" G) .

As with NC State and Duke, the loss of key experienced starters poses some real challenges for the coming year. Banghart's teams have so far over the past years been somewhat "offensively challenged" . In tournament play they have only surpassed 70 pts twice - both times in 1st round play. Her teams inability to get past the S16 is due in large part to this lack of offensive production I believe. Then again if she can keep from having to play SC in the earlier rounds of the tournament may help as well 😉

In the final analysis I think Banghart is an excellent recruiter and starting off with really great talent can go a long way towards continued success (UConn). I'm not yet sure about her coaching acumen beyond a certain point but the jury's still out on whether she can be an elite coach. She has the talent and the depth to compete in the ACC this year and I expect NC to be among the top 5 once again. I think their post play is a little suspect but they do have the pieces. Only time will tell if it's enough or if NC will once again reach the S16 only to bow out. IF everything goes well I think that's the best they can do this season and a 2nd round loss in the tourney is more likely. We shall see.
Expand ...
This was great. They are a really interesting team. I like all their young talent but I also don't really know how good they are.lol. Like Toomey, Thomas, Grant, and Aarnisalo...all have shown flashes and from a talent perspective are really good. But I also wouldn't be surprised if any of them were non factors. I know that sounds strange but nonetheless. Also part of the reason they could be non factors is because they are a pretty deep team. Kelly, Nivar, Harris all had solid seasons and are upperclassmen. I don't know much about Nyla Brooks but I feel like I've seen Henderson in international play a bit and really like her game. I think similar to last year they may have like 7 players averaging anywhere between 7-12 points. I agree with u on their celling though which in a sense kinda feels underwhelming for Banghart who is now in her 7th year there.
 
Bone Dog said:
To me, the most difficult one to replace is Ustby
Expand ...
I completely agree with you here. She had the proverbial "nose for the ball" and players like that are usually difference makers in close contests. Every coach would love to have a player like that on their team. Another excellent point you make is not having a ball dominant player. They're both a blessing and a curse. Personally I'm not a fan but on some teams it can work but it will only take a team so far. I've witnessed a few take otherwise mediocre teams on a deep run in the tourney - even as far as the F4 - C.Clark may be an exception - but ultimately it falls short and in today's game causes other players to hit the portal. That type of player figures prominently on my next team analysis. 😉
 
Rooster C. said:
I completely agree with you here. She had the proverbial "nose for the ball" and players like that are usually difference makers in close contests. Every coach would love to have a player like that on their team. Another excellent point you make is not having a ball dominant player. They're both a blessing and a curse. Personally I'm not a fan but on some teams it can work but it will only take a team so far. I've witnessed a few take otherwise mediocre teams on a deep run in the tourney - even as far as the F4 - C.Clark may be an exception - but ultimately it falls short and in today's game causes other players to hit the portal. That type of player figures prominently on my next team analysis. 😉
Expand ...
I think Deja had exactly this impact at UNC. She could keep them in games sometimes, but she mainly kept them mediocre. I suspect they were a better team after Deja left. I don’t mean in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of the happiness of the players. Indya and Renaia seemed to really blossom the following season. It may have just been the sophomore leap for them, of course. But I think the team played with a bit more freedoms that season.

And it’s not like Deja was a bad person or even a bad teammate. Those were the skills she had, the contribution she could make. But it doesn’t always serve every team.
 
Rooster C. said:
I completely agree with you here. She had the proverbial "nose for the ball" and players like that are usually difference makers in close contests. Every coach would love to have a player like that on their team. Another excellent point you make is not having a ball dominant player. They're both a blessing and a curse. Personally I'm not a fan but on some teams it can work but it will only take a team so far. I've witnessed a few take otherwise mediocre teams on a deep run in the tourney - even as far as the F4 - C.Clark may be an exception - but ultimately it falls short and in today's game causes other players to hit the portal. That type of player figures prominently on my next team analysis. 😉
Expand ...
Nice touch with foreshadowing what to look for in your next summary. Looking forward to it!
 
Patiently waiting for the thorough preview of Wake Forest. Might be a while


simpsons-the-simpsons.gif
 
These are great! I’m actually doing a similar thing for another site giving a breakdown of each ACC team and my feelings on what they lost/return and added and sort of my expectations.

I’ve looked closely at about 8 teams so far so I don’t have a full scope of the conference yet.

I do think Duke is the favorite in the conference. There is a ton of talent on that team, a lot of continuity and they are well coached.

I like State over UNC (shocker). I’m biased but I also see more questions on UNCs squad than States. I do like Grant and I think Kelly can at times be the bus driver - but I still see concerns about who is scoring the ball for this team. Can they develop interior play to get sustainable offense? Can Grant and Kelly up their games to the extent the guards cans reliably carry the offense? Nivar is a solid player and a jack of all trades sort, but she has not proven herself to be an efficient scorer or someone who could be the focal point of an offense. That person is missing for UNC. It was missing last year and then UNC lost their leading scorer, leading rebounder and best 3 point shooter.

Utsby had weaknesses in her game but she’s going to be a big piece they are missing defensively and on the boards. UNCs interior defense last year was an anchor for them, those twin towers are gone and while the younger bigs have nice pedigrees out of HS, are they ready to do it at this level yet ?

For State, you can’t overstate the losses of Rivers, James and Hayes. Rivers was the ultimate Swiss Army knife who could defend positions 1-4 at an elite level and be a drought breaker with easy buckets slashing to the basket. James was a walking bucket and could be blazing hot at times to absolutely carry the team offensively. Hayes is criminally underappreciated - a fantastic 3 point shooter, very good rebounder, ultimate team player, very good defender and had the versatility to guard and play 2-4 on the court. It’s a lot to replace.

However, there are no doubts about the ability to score or “bus drive”. Zoe Brooks has proven herself as that type of player. She dropped 33 on Notre Dame and DPOY Hannah Hidalgo last year. She was a 1st team all conference selection. At times she was the best player on the team last year and probably was held back individually (at least statically) by taking a back seat to the upperclassmen last year. Zam Jones showed her potential to be a Aziaha James 2.0 at times last year. She’s crafty, quick twitch, can get in the lane and has a very good shot from range. She will be the most electric player on the court.

I have not watched much Vanderbilt, but Pierre is exactly what last years team missed seemingly. A true 4 who can defend, rebound and score in the mid range and post. 20 ppg in the SEC is pretty impressive. Wes loves a 4 out 1 in, Tilda is 6’6 but she’s really more of a stretch big. She prefers to linger outside or have a face up game. She’s not a banger and tends to struggle when the game gets too physical. Pierre’s presence allows her to play where she’s more comfortable. She can shoot the 3 and at 6-6 that’s a big weapon. She averaged 16 and 10 in the u20 euros this summer and shot 50% from 3 (12/24).

The biggest question for State is who emerges on the wing and what’s the depth at guard like? At the 3 you have Devyn Quigley and Qadence Samuels. Quigley wasn’t asked to do much last year but found her role as the 2nd guard off the bench behind Zam. Steele transferred away because Quigley surpassed her. She was a very good set shooter and showed the ability to get in the lane and finish. I like her to win the starting job. Samuels is intriguing and comes in with a reputation as a shooter with great length and athleticism. I really don’t know what to expect from her but she has a real chance to start over Quigley if she grasps Wes’ system and can defend.

Awou flashed last year but was super raw. She had a high ceiling and should be a capable backup in the post. Cox is certainly a decent depth piece at the 4 but shouldn’t be counted on for more than 10-12 min a game. There is a lot of buzz about incoming freshman Ky’She Lunan but I don’t anticipate either freshman to have major roles this year.

My biggest concern is depth at the guard spot and leadership. That trio of seniors had been through some wars. This team has 0 seniors on the roster. Zoe is the one who you’d assume would lead, but she’s the quiet type on the court. Zam has more of that leadership mindset but she’s young. It will be fascinating to see who steps up as a team leader and demands accountability from others. To me that’s my biggest concern.

The addition of Pierre has me hopeful that State will finish in the top 3 of the conference this year and be a host for the NCAA again as a top 4 seed.
 
Now up..............Notre Dame

Pre-season they were ranked #6 and by season's end #10. Their season came to an end for the 4th consecutive year in the Sweet 16. Coach Niele Ivey has a conference win pct. of .747 (.755 overall) which ranks 2nd among the conference. I expect this season to be the most challenging ever for Ivey and we should get a pretty good idea early on if she's up to the task.

Notre Dame lost probably more than any other team in the conference (FSU, GT, Miami, and SMU are close behind) both to graduation and the portal. There's no replacing 3 (likely 4) players moving on to the WNBA. Westbeld (7.6ppg), King (11.5ppg), and Citron (14.1ppg) were all drafted and Miles (15.4ppg) chose to spend her last year of eligibility with TCU. Additionally Karlen (5.3ppg and an important bench player) and walk on Cernugel also graduated. Highly ranked K. Koval (so. 6'5" F 5.3ppg) left for LSU as did E. Risch (sr. 6'1" G 5.7 ppg) to FSU. Miles, Koval, and Risch were undoubtedly expected to play a major role on this year's team.

The cupboard isn't completely empty. H.Hidalgo returns (Jr. 5'6" G) and her 5th best in the nation scoring at 23.8ppg with her. Also back is C. Prosper (Sr. 6'3" G 5.8ppg), KK Bransford returns from injury (rs Jr. 5'11" G 6.8ppg), and bench players L. Jensen (So. 5'10" G) and B. Tehrani (So. 6'3" F) also return.

Things still looked pretty bleak until Ivey was able to secure enough players through the portal to make a team. V. De Jesus (Gr. 5'8" G 3.1ppg from Duke), I. Moore (Gr. 5'8" G 12.4ppg from Vandy), M. Cowles (Gr. 6'3" F 8.8ppg from WF), G. Sanchez (Gr. 6'4" F 4.2ppg from KSU/Spain), and K. Ratigan (rs Jr. 5'11" G 8.4ppg from Loyola,Md) all arrive in South Bend. There is also a sole incoming freshman L. Macy (6'2" F) ranked #26 in the incoming class.

The backcourt has Hidalgo to lead it of course, and having the 13th-ranked transfer in Moore will be a good addition, along with some combination of Prosper/Bransford/De Jesus/ to fill out the starting rotation with Ratigan and Jensen the likely bench help. In the frontcourt we'll most likely see Cowles as the starter with Sanchez splitting time with her and Tehrani as the backup. Macy unfortunately suffered an injury and will most likely be redshirted.

We haven't seen Notre Dame's schedule as of the writing of this but I expect it wont be a cakewalk, even with the nonconference part of it. I think Ivey is likely to lose more games this season than she has since her first year and perhaps more (10 overall, 7 conference). There's no combination of players this year that will come close to what was lost. There are only 11 players on this roster including the injured Macy. That means ND can not afford to lose much if anything to injury especially in the back court. The front court is also thin and may have to frequently rotate post players and defend the paint by commitee. Unlike the previous teams discussed (NC St., Duke, and NC) and unlike the four previous years, ND does not have a team filled with highly ranked players throughout the roster. Six of the players were unranked coming out of hs and one of the ranked players is injured so only 4 of the players on the squad were ranked - and 2 were bech players and one is coming off an injury. Can Ivey put it all together and have this team competetive ? Sure. But at what level ? I feel like so far with the talent level she had over the past four years that she has underacieved. Ususally when a team stays together for this long and its' players are this talented we see progression : from S16 to E8 to F4 by their last season together. Yes, there were some injuries but they still should have progressed. I think this team should have been in at least a couple of Final Fours and one or more championship games. During this same time period Duke went to an E8. Miami went to an E8. NC State went to an E8 and a F4 in different years. VT went to a F4. Louisville went to two E8's and one F4. This is the level of coaching competition in the ACC. Ivey also took this team to just ONE regular season 1st place finish.

In conclusion, I will be interested to see how Ivey handles real adversity and pressure throughout the season. She has a great player in Hidalgo and the ball dominance that comes with her is a double-edged sword. I don't think it will be a problem this year or next like it may have been previously. This will definitely be Hidaldo's team going forward and Ivey has tied herself to what that will result in. I see this year's team as something like "FSU NORTH" with lots of offense being led by a dynamic playmaker and scorer and little to no defense. Hidalgo's numbers will go up to 25 - 30 ppg and other starters having career stats on offense. The question is - will it translate in to wins ? I'm skeptical. Other teams and their coaches will be hungry to put a gian "L" on the team thas has used them for a punching bag the last four years. And I don't think it ends this year. It's likely she'll be losing 5 players or more after this season comes to an end. Make no mistake - Ivey's lack of recruiting has come home to roost. This is a total rebuild but I don't see it happening in time for Hidalgo. If Ivey can suddenly/miraculously sign a large and talented class for 2026 (she has one commit thus far) she would be surrounding Hidalgo with all freshmen - talented freshmen at best but again - not in time for Hidalgo. It would be a great starting point for a rebuild but there are no indications that's going to happen. Which leaves the portal. Can it be done ? If she demonstrates the ability to sign 3 or 4 of the very best players in the portal then it's possible. Do I see that happening ? in a word - No. The #2 ranked player in this year's portal was - wait for it - Olivia Miles. In my opinion (which isn't worth much) ND will be lucky to be a 6 seed in the tournament and make it to the 2nd round. I expect them to finish around 6th or 7th in the conference and that will happen only if nearly everything falls in to place. It's going to be a rough year for ND fans who have grown accustomed to winning at a high level and dominating most of the conference. Things only get more interesting from here............Next up Louisville
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Online statistics

Members online
35
Guests online
1,322
Total visitors
1,357
Totals may include hidden visitors.

Share This Page

Forum statistics

Threads
164,003
Messages
4,378,173
Members
10,170
Latest member
ctfb19382


.
..
Top Bottom