Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

[Rooster C.]

I will be giving some thoughts on each team in the ACC just for fun. Any comments from those interested will be appreciated.

 

[Rooster C.]

First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.

 

[mudcat]

First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.

Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.

 

[Rooster C.]

Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.

I believe he'll stick with a 3 - guard offense and hope to get some fast break opportunities. I think with a duo of Trygger/Pierre he is hoping to get as much production in the paint this year as he did from the perimeter last year. Many of the ACC teams have demonstrated difficulty in putting up a lot of points - including some of the top teams - and now that ND lost so much to the portal and Latson left FSU (along with most of their offense as well) - this year's team may not need to score as many points to win games. Also, that home arena is a real advantage so there's that. Going in to the 2023-24 season they were not ranked in the pre-season poll and finished in the Final Four so Wes has a way of getting the most out of his players.

 

[triaddukefan]

Concerning Duke .. Stringer Bell puts it perfectly and succinctly

 

[Rooster C.]

Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.

 

[Bone Dog]

Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.

Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.

 

[cancontent]

Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.

Regarding Fournier, I'm looking forward to seeing how she does this year. She wasn't involved with Canada Basketball like she has in the past. As this is the first time she hasn't been involved with the program during the off-season, it will be interesting to see how she's progressed and what she worked on.

 

[jdote33]

These r great. Thanks for taking the time to write these breakdowns.

I like NC State more and more by the day. They did lose 2 Wnba players but I just like their roster a lot. Good point about Trigger and Pierre and also they do have serviceable backups. Although they lost the 2 guards I actually think they are still quite talented at the guard position. The only thing I kinda worry about is I really don't know who their best player is (probably Pierre who is a transfer), and like the pecking order of it all. Wes has managed balance rosters in the recent past, but idk.

I've said a bunch this summer I really like Duke. I didn't realize Fournier stayed at Duke this summer although I didn't see her in the various fiba tournaments. I know they lost some good players, but I do believe Roberson, Riley Nelson and Skinner will all be really good this season. I do worry a bit about perimeter shooting. But I just like there athleticism and size. I'd be surprised if they regressed this season.

What about that other team nearby Duke.

 

[TheFarmFan]

What about that other team nearby Duke.

You mean Wake? Let's not trigger @triaddukefan just when we were all saying nice things about the Blue Devils. 😁

 

[triaddukefan]

You mean Wake? Let's not trigger @triaddukefan just when we were all saying nice things about the Blue Devils. 😁

A diehard Tarheel alum gave me a really nice birthday gift last month , surprisingly it was a Duke lawn/arm char. So until the end of Leo season I won't be triggered by any positive mentions of that institution. (Don't test me though)

 

[Rooster C.]

What about that other team nearby Duke.

Funny you should mention that team......they're up next!

North Carolina was ranked #15 in the pre-season and in the final poll were ranked #14. Their season was ended by arch rival Duke in a Sweet 16 showdown. Courtney Banghart has had her teams in the NCAA tournament 5/6 years since she took over the program - the only exception being the covid year (which was her first year at the helm) so that doesn't really count. In those 5 appearances her teams have lost in the 1st round once, the 2nd round twice, and the S16 twice, including last years' team. She has an overall .661 win pct. and a .589 conference win pct. which ranks her 6th overall among current ACC coaches.

NC lost a lot from last years' team : Ustby - the swiss army knife (10.9ppg), Gakdeng - their best post player (10.8ppg) and Donarski - the 3-pt sniper (10.7ppg). Additionally, they lost G. Townsend (an experienced bench player 4.2ppg) and T. Crisp (to Miss.St. via the portal 5.6ppg) who provided solid minutes. The good news is they return 2 of their 5 starters in R. Kelly (no, not that R. Kelly 😉 ) a 5'7" jr. G (9.6ppg) and I. Nivar a 5'10"sr. G (8.3ppg) as well as a fair number of players with a lot of playing experience. Chief among them is L. Grant a 5'9" so. G (7.3ppg) who can easily step in to a starting role and B. Thomas a 6'5" so. C (2.4ppg) and C. Toomey a 6'4" rs so. F (3.2ppg) who can alternate at the post to (hopefully) replace Gakdeng's production/defense. There are also 2 additional reserve guards in L. Hull a rs so. (6'1" 2.6ppg) and J. Zubich another so. (5'11")
The biggest unknown is K. McPherson (rs sr. 5'8" G) . The oft injured player was at one time a dynamic playmaker. If she can return to form the former #17 ranked player could give NC a huge boost. Finally their is S. Barker, an early walk on player now a jr. (5'7" G 1.7ppg).

Banghart did not stand pat but added 2 players from the portal. To shore up post play she added the experienced sr. from Louisville Nyla Harris who at 6'2" averaged 8.6ppg and a very good guard from Finland (via UCLA) Elina AArnisalo (5'10" so. 5.1ppg) who appeared in all 37 games (10 starts) at UCLA a year ago. Add to this 3 incoming freshmen : #13 ranked Nyla Brooks (6'1" G), #27 ranked Taliyah Henderson 6'0" W), and #77 ranked Taissa Queiroz (6'1" G) .

As with NC State and Duke, the loss of key experienced starters poses some real challenges for the coming year. Banghart's teams have so far over the past years been somewhat "offensively challenged" . In tournament play they have only surpassed 70 pts twice - both times in 1st round play. Her teams inability to get past the S16 is due in large part to this lack of offensive production I believe. Then again if she can keep from having to play SC in the earlier rounds of the tournament may help as well 😉

In the final analysis I think Banghart is an excellent recruiter and starting off with really great talent can go a long way towards continued success (UConn). I'm not yet sure about her coaching acumen beyond a certain point but the jury's still out on whether she can be an elite coach. She has the talent and the depth to compete in the ACC this year and I expect NC to be among the top 5 once again. I think their post play is a little suspect but they do have the pieces. Only time will tell if it's enough or if NC will once again reach the S16 only to bow out. IF everything goes well I think that's the best they can do this season and a 2nd round loss in the tourney is more likely. We shall see.