Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26 | The Boneyard

Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.
 
Rooster C. said:
First up : NC State

Fresh off a Sweet 16 finish and a #9 ranking in 2024 -25 this coming season will pose some challenges for Wes Moore. Over 12 seasons he has a .760 win pct in the conference and while I look for that success to continue they may not be quite as good last year. I expect Duke and NC to finish ahead of them and potentially one or two other teams as well.

NC State lost 3 starters (A. James and S. Rivers to the W, and M. Hayes to graduation as well) and one reserve player (L. Steele) to the portal. Their acquisition of K. Pierre from Vandy looms as the biggest addition through transfer(sort of) since S. Rivers.

Their post play should be excellent, especially if they use a combo of T. Trygger (6'6" so. 6.6 ppg) and K. Pierre (6'2" jr. 20.4ppg) on the court together. Trygger can be backed up by L. Awou (6'5" so. 3.2ppg) and/or M. Collier (6'3" jr. 3.1ppg), while Pierre can get relief from M. Cox (6'2" jr. 0.8ppg) and/or Collier.

While the front court looks solid the back court will have some questions as replacing 3 very experienced double-digit starters is an unenviable task. Z. Brooks will be the anchor for this team (5'10" jr. 14.2ppg) and Z. Jones is ready to step up to a starting role (5'7" so. 7.1ppg) but a third starting guard will have to come from either D. Quigley (5'11" so. 2.5ppg), Q.Samuels - the transfer from UConn (6'0" jr. 1.3ppg) or less likely from one of their two incoming freshmen guards.

Of the 11 players on the roster literally only 2 were not ranked in the HG 100 as freshmen - Awou and Trygger (who would have been if not for the fact she's from Sweden). Trygger is also coming off of a very good performance in this year's U20 Eurobasket tournament. Moore has plenty to work with but still losing 3 veteran starters is not easily overcome. Having only 6 guards - and 2 of those unproven freshmen - plus only 11 players total leaves no room for injuries or foul troubles for this team. Luckily most of the conference is either weaker or full of unknowns so I expect a solid Top 5 finish and another 20 win NCAA tournament year for the Wolfpack.
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Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.
 
mudcat said:
Can Trygger play the 4? Wes could go big with Awou, Trygger and Pierre in the frontcourt and have a two guard offense. The biggest difficulty I see with that is they like to play fast on offense and both Awou and Trygger are pretty slow. Wes has been known to give freshman prominent roles and both of the incoming freshman guards are ranked, so maybe some good minutes could come from there.
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I believe he'll stick with a 3 - guard offense and hope to get some fast break opportunities. I think with a duo of Trygger/Pierre he is hoping to get as much production in the paint this year as he did from the perimeter last year. Many of the ACC teams have demonstrated difficulty in putting up a lot of points - including some of the top teams - and now that ND lost so much to the portal and Latson left FSU (along with most of their offense as well) - this year's team may not need to score as many points to win games. Also, that home arena is a real advantage so there's that. Going in to the 2023-24 season they were not ranked in the pre-season poll and finished in the Final Four so Wes has a way of getting the most out of his players.
 
Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.
 
Rooster C. said:
Concerning Duke...........

They were ranked #11 in the pre-season poll which was pretty high but managed to better that by years' end with a final ranking of #7 and also higher than any other team in the conference. Other than Duke only NC State (#9) and Notre Dame (#10) finished in the top ten. Duke also went further than any other ACC team in the NCAA tournament bowing out in the Elite 8 - but ONLY after eliminating arch rival NC in the Sweet 16. Kara Lawson over 5 seasons has an impressive .703 win pct. in conference play and I look for that to continue in spite of losing some key players to the roster.

Duke finished 3rd in the conference last year behind NC State and Notre Dame but suffered only 4 conference losses - all on the road except Louisville. However, Duke had their revenge against all 4 opponents in the post-season eliminating Louisville, N.Dame, and NC State (in that order) from the ACC tournament en route to winning the conference tourney. As mentioned before they eliminated NC from the NCAA tournament thus completing their sweep of the 4 teams who defeated them in the regular season. A heck of an accomplishment.

So who did Duke lose at end of season? Only one starter BUT (and this is a very large BUT 😉) they also lost 2 key reserves and 2 others to the portal plus one more reserve to pre-season injury (just recently). Those losses will be felt as the starter Richardson (to graduation) and Okananwa (to Maryland) were the #3 and #4 scorers on the team. De Jesus left for Greener pastures 😉 and Koabel (injury) both played important veteran minutes off the bench. Battiston (to Rice) and Cotton (to KSU) provided added depth and experience but are now gone.

So who did Duke add ? Only one player through the portal - a reserve 5'11" G (grad) from Pepperdine. That really doesn't move the needle in terms of what was lost. However she does have the #4 recruit in the country incoming (Skinner a 6'0" G) and another freshman from Norway (5'11" G Wikstrom) who averaged about 16ppg in European play. Not to be overlooked is the much awaited return of R.Nelson who was out with an injury last year. A transfer from Maryland she was the #18 ranked player coming out of high school. Amongst these 3 and the incoming grad transfer (H. Johnson) will likely emerge the potential replacements in the back court for Okananwa, Richardson, and De Jesus.

The good news from the back court is 3 returning players : A. Jackson (6'0" G 12.4ppg), T. Mair (5'9" PG 6.7ppg), and J. Donovan (6'0" G/F 5.1ppg). They will need to step up their scoring production until it's known whether or not R.Nelson (6'2" G) and/or the 2 freshmen and the transfer are able to contribute and at what level.

The front court is in good shape with the return of starter D.Thomas (6'3" jr. 7.1ppg) and super freshman T.Fournier (6'2" now a so.13.2ppg team leader) as well as key reserve J.Wood (6'4" jr. 4.1ppg), and depth added by A.Robertson (6'4" rs fr.).
I think Lawson would like to stick to a 4 guard squad but she may shift to a 2 post player - 3 guard starting 5 instead. Many of the ACC opponents this year are big and will be playing with 2 post players so Duke could get killed on the glass if they stick to 4 guards. Then again, under Lawson Duke's defense has been one of the best in the country and forces a stupid number of turnovers using the 4 guard system so.....

Much like NC State Duke is made up of mostly players who were once ranked in the HG top 100 coming out of hs with the only exceptions being Mair (a transfer from BC), Koabel, and O.Martin (who was an early walk on about to graduate) and the freshman from Norway. Of the 13 players on the roster (the injury makes 12) it's really more like 9 or 10 depending on how the freshmen work out or not. Duke is a bit thin at the guard spot with 3 veterans and realistically 4 unproven and inexperienced players behind them. Lack of any further injuries will be crucial for Duke to build on last years' accomplishments. Duke also has a killer schedule as always since Lawson doesn't duck anyone who wants to play her teams. Having said all of this I still believe Duke will be the favorite to win the conference and there's always a decent chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament with that defense.
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Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.
 
Bone Dog said:
Good analysis of Duke. Lots of departures but still a solid core. They’ve struggled with a thin frontcourt for years, relieved only by Kennedy Brown who came into her own in her final season. When Arianna Robertson was injured in a 3-v-3 tournament last summer [ugh!!!] I thought their hopes for the season had been dashed. But somehow Kara managed to work around it relying on great guard play and asking Tobey and Delaney to play above their heads. Both Toby and Delaney are ready for sophomore/junior leaps. Robertson’s return is great news, but she will return as a rehabbing freshman, not a sophomore ready for a leap. I wouldn’t expect great things from her for at least another year. But when she’s gotten back up to speed, I’m sure Kara will know what to do.
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Regarding Fournier, I'm looking forward to seeing how she does this year. She wasn't involved with Canada Basketball like she has in the past. As this is the first time she hasn't been involved with the program during the off-season, it will be interesting to see how she's progressed and what she worked on.
 
These r great. Thanks for taking the time to write these breakdowns.

I like NC State more and more by the day. They did lose 2 Wnba players but I just like their roster a lot. Good point about Trigger and Pierre and also they do have serviceable backups. Although they lost the 2 guards I actually think they are still quite talented at the guard position. The only thing I kinda worry about is I really don't know who their best player is (probably Pierre who is a transfer), and like the pecking order of it all. Wes has managed balance rosters in the recent past, but idk.

I've said a bunch this summer I really like Duke. I didn't realize Fournier stayed at Duke this summer although I didn't see her in the various fiba tournaments. I know they lost some good players, but I do believe Roberson, Riley Nelson and Skinner will all be really good this season. I do worry a bit about perimeter shooting. But I just like there athleticism and size. I'd be surprised if they regressed this season.

What about that other team nearby Duke.
 
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