Thoughts after watching the first two rounds | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Thoughts after watching the first two rounds

Darwin said:
@Stanford….#1 seed
@ MD…..#2 seed
@Uconn …..#2 seed
UCLA….#4 seed

Color me skeptical on the cupcake OOC schedule. There were some dogs in that schedule, but as far as the top 4 OOC games, that seems to be the standard this season. As for the conference schedule, I think Ole Miss, UGA, LSU, UT and MSU are showing their abilities in the tournament. The SEC is something like 11-3 in the tourney, so SC played a tough schedule. Ask some of the teams that have played them so far like Stanford. You can make fun of LSU all you want, you may be right, but so far they are not an easy out in the tourney either. Let’s see how Nova does versus LSU …….
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Did you even read my post? Didn't I just say this? The SEC got their act together as the season progressed, however, this also meant that as their W-L records improved, so did the SoS of stronger teams [like SC] who played them when they weren't playing very well yet. But this is besides the point for two reasons: 1) we were talking about OOC, not SEC, and 2) SoS ratings are dynamic, not stable, mono-valent facts. The fact is, SC's OOC schedule was weak at the time they played it, and many of their SEC matchups were also quite weak early in the season. Trying to read their current SoS rating back into it retroactively doesn't change this basic fact. The positive side to this is you can use it to explain away the close calls against Stanford and UCLA, namely by saying they hadn't really been tested by top teams when they played those two. Of course, this won't help explain away the close call against UConn later. For that one, you may have to rely on home court advantage and the notion that UConn was really better without Azzi, etc. Or maybe the basketball used was the wrong brand. I guess MD was better without Miller, too. :D

But the important thing to remember is that SC is still the prohibitive favorite to win the NC. Just don't make me pretend this means they're also flawless.
 
Bone Dog said:
Did you even read my post? Didn't I just say this? The SEC got their act together as the season progressed, however, this also meant that as their W-L records improved, so did the SoS of stronger teams [like SC] who played them when they weren't playing very well yet. But this is besides the point for two reasons: 1) we were talking about OOC, not SEC, and 2) SoS ratings are dynamic, not stable, mono-valent facts. The fact is, SC's OOC schedule was weak at the time they played it, and many of their SEC matchups were also quite weak early in the season. Trying to read their current SoS rating back into it retroactively doesn't change this basic fact. The positive side to this is you can use it to explain away the close calls against Stanford and UCLA, namely by saying they hadn't really been tested by top teams when they played those two. Of course, this won't help explain away the close call against UConn later. For that one, you may have to rely on home court advantage and the notion that UConn was really better without Azzi, etc. Or maybe the basketball used was the wrong brand. I guess MD was better without Miller, too. :D

But the important thing to remember is that SC is still the prohibitive favorite to win the NC. Just don't make me pretend this means they're also flawless.
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Humor me, rank UCONN’s top 5 OOC games vs SC’s….we were talking OOC right? Do you feel there was a big difference? Include only teams that made the tourney….that‘s the point you were trying to make right? Rank them against each other….I don’t care either way, was responding to your statement their OOC schedule was “cupcakes”, but as I look at it, their top 5 OOC games close to the Huskies, better than any other schools this season, though I’d have to say UCONN had the top OOC schedule, hardly a huge difference.

SC #1 seed -#1 seed Stanford
MD #2 seed- #2 seed UCONN
Iowa #2 seed- #2 seed MD
ND #3 seed- #4 seed UCLA
Texas #4 seed vs SDSU advantage UCONN
NCSU advantage UCONN


Top four almost identical, strong edge to UCONN for #5 and #6. Both have three OOC opponents left in sweet 16 from those groups and both share common UT who is still alive.
 
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Darwin said:
They are both quick and fast. No team gets down the court as fast as SC.
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I know in wnba when they talk about fast teams, they speak in terms of number of possessions. Teams that push the ball. From the games I've seen, that's not Scar but maybe they do. I thought Dawn was a defense first coach.
 
tigers4ever said:
I know in wnba when they talk about fast teams, they speak in terms of number of possessions. Teams that push the ball. From the games I've seen, that's not Scar but maybe they do. I thought Dawn was a defense first coach.
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SC pushes the ball fast on offense, but yes they are defense first, they hang their hat on that. They run the floor on offense as fast or faster than anyone though, watch them.
 
Darwin said:
SC pushes the ball fast on offense, but yes they are defense first, they hang their hat on that. They run the floor on offense as fast or faster than anyone though, watch them.
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Definitely, Ive prob seen 4 games this year and I'm always just in awe of their bench strength. Unfortunately, the LSU game was one of the games I watched.
 
Darwin said:
Humor me, rank UCONN’s top 5 OOC games vs SC’s….we were talking OOC right? Do you feel there was a big difference? Include only teams that made the tourney….that‘s the point you were trying to make right? Rank them against each other….I don’t care either way, was responding to your statement their OOC schedule was “cupcakes”, but as I look at it, their top 5 OOC games close to the Huskies, better than any other schools this season, though I’d have to say UCONN had the top OOC schedule, hardly a huge difference.

SC #1 seed -#1 seed Stanford
MD #2 seed- #2 seed UCONN
Iowa #2 seed- #2 seed MD
ND #3 seed- #4 seed UCLA
Texas #4 seed vs SDSU advantage UCONN
NCSU advantage UCONN


Top four almost identical, strong edge to UCONN for #5 and #6. Both have three OOC opponents left in sweet 16 from those groups and both share common UT who is still alive.
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You see, this is what I mean. I'm not talking about teams that made the tourney, and I don't know why you think that's the issue. You haven't understood me at all. Maybe it's my fault for not being clear. If you want to compare OOC schedules -- I don't know why you insist on this, but whatever -- then do it based on what we all could plainly see about those teams during the OOC portion of the season.

Who did SC play in November? ETSU (101-31), MD (81-56), Clemson (85-31), Stanford (76-71 OT), Cal Poly (79-36), Hampton (85-38), UCLA (73-64) -- 2 real games (Stanford and UCLA) and one semi-real game (MD w/o Miller) and 4 undeniable cupcakes.
Who did they play in December? Memphis, Liberty, SDSU, Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M -- all cupcakes at that moment. SDSU had already lost 5 games out of 12, and Texas A&M was 5-6. SDSU pulled it's act together and finished 29-6 after this game, but that's not indicative of what they were capable of in this game.

Now we can finish the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule if you like, and SC's OOC schedule will look even weaker. But that would have nothing to do with my point, as you ought to know. This entire thing came from one stray remark you latched onto, namely that we don't have to pretend all the teams in SC's bracket are cupcakes in order to make ourselves feel better about the possibility SC could be upset. Instead, I suggested, we should recognize their likely current matchups as teams that are pretty good now, capable of playing really well, and that SC might have to dig deep to beat them, like they did against Stanford, UCLA and UCONN, and even Ole Miss. We might enjoy watching those games a lot more that way, and appreciate just how good SC is even more fully.

Now, have I made myself clear enough for you? Or do you want to continue running the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule, as if that had any relevance?
 
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Bone Dog said:
You see, this is what I mean. I'm not talking about teams that made the tourney, and I don't know why you think that's the issue. You haven't understood me at all. Maybe it's my fault for not being clear. If you want to compare OOC schedules -- I don't know why you insist on this, but whatever -- then do it based on what we all could plainly see about those teams during the OOC portion of the season.

Who did SC play in November? ETSU (101-31), MD (81-56), Clemson (85-31), Stanford (76-71 OT), Cal Poly (79-36), Hampton (85-38), UCLA (73-64) -- 2 real games (Stanford and UCLA) and one semi-real game (MD w/o Miller) and 4 undeniable cupcakes.
Who did they play in December? Memphis, Liberty, SDSU, Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M -- all cupcakes at that moment. SDSU had already lost 5 games out of 12, and Texas A&M was 5-6. SDSU pulled it's act together and finished 29-6 after this game, but that's not indicative of what they were capable of in this game.

Now we can finish the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule if you like, and SC's OOC schedule will look even weaker. But that would have nothing to do with my point, as you ought to know. This entire thing came from one stray remark you latched onto, namely that we don't have to pretend all the teams in SC's bracket are cupcakes in order to make ourselves feel better about the possibility SC could be upset. Instead, I suggested, we should recognize their likely current matchups as teams that are pretty good now, capable of playing really well, and that SC might have to dig deep to beat them, like they did against Stanford, UCLA and UCONN, and even Ole Miss. We might enjoy watching those games a lot more that way, and appreciate just how good SC is even more fully.

Now, have I made myself clear enough for you? Or do you want to continue running the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule, as if that had any relevance?
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I would say you make some great points which you do of course. I would also say that trying to extrapolate where some teams were early vs where they finished is not an exact science, I lean on where they finished, that’s just me however, having said all that @Bone Dog, I will take SC’s SOS against all but UCONN’s, and tbh, if LSU boats Nova then we start to get some perspective on the conference SOS also, which of course is all part of the equation in the end is is not? Because you were trying to make the point initially that SC had played a weak schedule, but tbh their OCC schedule was second only to the Huskies and I think the tourney is showing their conference schedule was way better than what UCONN played, so let’s call it a draw in sportsmanship, but there is more insight coming soon in the rest of the tourney games. We will see, but last I checked, SEC was something like 11-3 in this tourney so far, and SC played All their tough OOC games on the road, including @Uconn. Let’s not pretend SC has not gotten better like many other teams have as the season has progressed.

And yes, UCLA and MD are both capable of beating SC, they are both in the category of formidable teams at this juncture. So I am not saying SC will win out, to the contrary, I suspect they could lose to either of those two or to UCONN in the finals if they meet.
 
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Darwin said:
I would say you make some great points which you do of course. I would also say that trying to extrapolate where some teams were early vs where they finished is not an exact science, I lean on where they finished, that’s just me however, having said all that @Bone Dog, I will take SC’s SOS against all but maybe UCONN, and tbh, if LSU boats Nova then we start to get some perspective on the conference SOS also, which of course is all part of the equation in the end is is not? Because you were trying to make the point initially that SC had played a weak schedule, but tbh their OCC schedule was second only to the Huskies and I think the tourney is showing their conference schedule was way better than what UCONN played, so let’s call it a draw in sportsmanship, but there is more insight coming soon in the rest of the tourney games. We will see, but last I checked, SEC was something like 11-3 in this tourney so far, and SC played All their tough OOC games on the road, including UCONN. Let’s not pretend SC has not gotten better like many teams have as the season has progressed.
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Fair enough. I don't actually disagree with any of the points you're making. They just weren't a response to anything I said. But why should you be limited to responding to me. My preoccupations are narrow and not, ultimately, all that interesting. You're trying to prove something about which conference is better, and that's a reasonable topic for speculation. I still think you're misinterpreting the meaning of late season SoS ratings. But my quibble isn't really all that important.
 
Bone Dog said:
Fair enough. I don't actually disagree with any of the points you're making. They just weren't a response to anything I said. But why should you be limited to responding to me. My preoccupations are narrow and not, ultimately, all that interesting. You're trying to prove something about which conference is better, and that's a reasonable topic for speculation. I still think you're misinterpreting the meaning of late season SoS ratings. But my quibble isn't really all that important.
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They were initially related to the cupcake OOC statement of course. But I think I pointed out only UCONN played a tougher OOC schedule, so it’s not like SC played some kind of weak OOC schedule. Peace.
 
Darwin said:
Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.
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Lots of good points by all as usual at The Boneyard. Although these hypotheticals are fun to debate I can guarantee Iowa's team and coaches are focusing 100% on the Colorado Buffaloes; everyone still alive is both good and playing well. I'm sure they have some staff members accumulating film and info on Ole Miss and Louisville, but that won't be presented unless they win Friday. Iowa's margin for error is razor thin, and they know it. I posted prior to the Georgia game that I'd happily take a one point win vs the Bulldogs, and that was before I knew Hannah Stuelke was out.

Okay, disclaimers out of the way, let's speculate about an Iowa/South Carolina match up. There's no question the Gamecocks are the superior team, and it's not even close. There's been some chatter about Iowa having some players that could match USC's quickness: NO WAY! Caitlin Clark is fairly quick, but her main asset is speed down the court. The rest of the team isn't close to USC, and many other teams as well. If they played in the Final Four the chance of South Carolina winning would be easily above 90%. Villanova beat Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team in 1985, but it will take something similar for Iowa to win that match up.

IF it were up to me, I'd play conservative defense....at least in the 1st half: always play behind your player, try to box out on the shot, and pray they have an off night shooting. Push the pace relentlessly in an effort to get shots before South Carolina can get everyone back on D.
IF Iowa could stay within 10 rebounds AND shoot > 40% on 3's, they could potentially be within 10 points after 3 quarters. With a wild card in Caitlin Clark, there's always the chance of some craziness on the offensive end; while South Carolina is experienced and I wouldn't expect it, you never know what might happen in a close game with an undefeated season on the line.

Darwin is correct that Clark could potentially put up 25+ shots in a game like this, but it wouldn't be because she was baited into it; her basketball IQ is actually quite high. If she did shoot that often it would be out of necessity: since South Carolina is more athletic at every position except perhaps vs Caitlin, she could be the only Hawkeye that can get a shot on many possessions. There are a lot of posters that criticize Clark by labeling her a 'volume shooter'. She does average 18 shots per game this year, but Maddy Siegrist shoots 20 times/game for Villanova. I don't recall seeing many comments labeling her the same. None of her (Clark's) teammates feel she shoots too much; it's incredible how much she elevates everyone's game around her.

Looking forward to all the great basketball this weekend. Outside of South Carolina's games and perhaps UConn's, pretty much every game could go either way. Monday night's conversations should be good!
 
Bjbod said:
Lots of good points by all as usual at The Boneyard. Although these hypotheticals are fun to debate I can guarantee Iowa's team and coaches are focusing 100% on the Colorado Buffaloes; everyone still alive is both good and playing well. I'm sure they have some staff members accumulating film and info on Ole Miss and Louisville, but that won't be presented unless they win Friday. Iowa's margin for error is razor thin, and they know it. I posted prior to the Georgia game that I'd happily take a one point win vs the Bulldogs, and that was before I knew Hannah Stuelke was out.

Okay, disclaimers out of the way, let's speculate about an Iowa/South Carolina match up. There's no question the Gamecocks are the superior team, and it's not even close. There's been some chatter about Iowa having some players that could match USC's quickness: NO WAY! Caitlin Clark is fairly quick, but her main asset is speed down the court. The rest of the team isn't close to USC, and many other teams as well. If they played in the Final Four the chance of South Carolina winning would be easily above 90%. Villanova beat Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team in 1985, but it will take something similar for Iowa to win that match up.

IF it were up to me, I'd play conservative defense....at least in the 1st half: always play behind your player, try to box out on the shot, and pray they have an off night shooting. Push the pace relentlessly in an effort to get shots before South Carolina can get everyone back on D.
IF Iowa could stay within 10 rebounds AND shoot > 40% on 3's, they could potentially be within 10 points after 3 quarters. With a wild card in Caitlin Clark, there's always the chance of some craziness on the offensive end; while South Carolina is experienced and I wouldn't expect it, you never know what might happen in a close game with an undefeated season on the line.

Darwin is correct that Clark could potentially put up 25+ shots in a game like this, but it wouldn't be because she was baited into it; her basketball IQ is actually quite high. If she did shoot that often it would be out of necessity: since South Carolina is more athletic at every position except perhaps vs Caitlin, she could be the only Hawkeye that can get a shot on many possessions. There are a lot of posters that criticize Clark by labeling her a 'volume shooter'. She does average 18 shots per game this year, but Maddy Siegrist shoots 20 times/game for Villanova. I don't recall seeing many comments labeling her the same. None of her (Clark's) teammates feel she shoots too much; it's incredible how much she elevates everyone's game around her.

Looking forward to all the great basketball this weekend. Outside of South Carolina's games and perhaps UConn's, pretty much every game could go either way. Monday night's conversations should be good!
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One of the best, most balanced and objective posts I have read in a long while, you are correct about Clark of course, she makes all her teammates better and she is not a ball hog in anyway bad, she is just that good.
 
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nwhoopfan said:
Villanova vs. LSU is getting ahead of ourselves, they both need to win a game first before that can happen.
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This is so true, I think I know LSU will beat Utah, but I have no idea who wins the Miami vs Nova game tbh. Miami has not been great this year, and their IU win may be fool’s gold going fwd. May be…
 
Darwin said:
This is so true, I think I know LSU will beat Utah, but I have no idea who wins the Miami vs Nova game tbh. Miami has not been great this year, and their IU win may be fool’s gold going fwd. May be…
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Miami has beaten North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida St. and now Indiana. Villanova's best win is?...Princeton, Creighton or Marquette. . You can argue about UNC and FSU, but Miami clearly has 2 wins over better teams than anybody Nova has managed to take down. I have absolutely no idea what to expect in this one

LSU over Utah is no foregone conclusion in my mind.
 
Utah is way better than LSU.NCAA gifted LSU a pretty easy path to the sweet 16

I think LSU is probably the 4th best SEC team at this point of the year. I'd be surprised if Utah doesn't win, handily especially.
 
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visitingcock said:
Based On what?

We don’t know enough about LSU to judge.
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That’s the irony, of course. We know so little about a top 20 team. The data set on LSU in tough matchups is just too small to speak with confidence about them. They may dominate Utah, or they may collapse. Fwiw, I suspect Pili will be as difficult to deal with as Reese.
 
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Looks like the B10 has 3 teams in the elite 8, well done by that conference. Same for the ACC and SEC, solid showings by all. PAC12 fizzled, and the BE is gone now, same for B12.
 
Darwin said:
Looks like the B10 has 3 teams in the elite 8, well done by that conference. Same for the ACC and SEC, solid showings by all. PAC12 fizzled, and the BE is gone now, same for B12.
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I’m shocked that Indiana was able to win the conference this year, they must’ve peaked too early
 
Bone Dog said:
…And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.
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I get that UConn and Stanford were somewhat exposed in the tourney, but doesn’t seem fair to call them cupcakes.

South Carolina’s OOC SOS is 4th in the nation. Anyone who calls it a “cupcake schedule” is either a troll or a clown.
 
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JstVisiting said:
I get that UConn and Stanford were somewhat exposed in the tourney, but doesn’t seem fair to call them cupcakes.

South Carolina’s OOC SOS is 4th in the nation. Anyone who calls it a “cupcake schedule” is either a troll or a clown.
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This is trolling. If you'd read the context, you'd know better than to say this. Do better in future.
 
Bone Dog said:
This is trolling. If you'd read the context, you'd know better than to say this. Do better in future.
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I read the context. It didn’t make sense. At SD State was a cupcake because they weren’t 29-6 yet, at Maryland was a cupcake because their best player was hurt, at UConn doesn’t akshully count because it wasn’t played in November… It’s silly.

The pushback you’ve received from multiple people on that specific phrase buried in multiple paragraphs should be a hint that you’re off base. The OOC schedule was tougher than all but three teams. No matter how you twist it, that’s not a cupcake schedule.
 
SECbbfan24 said:
Utah is way better than LSU.NCAA gifted LSU a pretty easy path to the sweet 16

I think LSU is probably the 4th best SEC team at this point of the year. I'd be surprised if Utah doesn't win, handily especially.
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LSU was the second best team we’ve played so far, and definitely second best in the SEC.
 
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