Thoughts after watching the first two rounds

[Bone Dog]

I think Czinano would score some points against SC. She's got good post moves and a quick release. What she won't do much of is rebound. And I don't think Czinano and Warnock will be able to prevent a ton of O-boards for SC. We don't have to reinvent the wheel to imagine how SC will win. They'll pound the paint and get most of the rebounds and score a ton on put-backs. Maybe their guards will score some, too, but that's less predictable or reliable.

 

[Darwin]

Totally on point. Clark gets her season average on 25+ shots, USC wins by double digits.

Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.

 

[azfan]

I think Czinano would score some points against SC. She's got good post moves and a quick release. What she won't do much of is rebound. And I don't think Czinano and Warnock will be able to prevent a ton of O-boards for SC. We don't have to reinvent the wheel to imagine how SC will win. They'll pound the paint and get most of the rebounds and score a ton on put-backs. Maybe their guards will score some, too, but that's less predictable or reliable.

Czinano, a solid compliment for Clark, will get very few points as Boston, Cardoso, Saxton and company dominate the paint.

I had to love Rebecca Lobo's comment on Czinano in the pregame before their last contest is she talked about the over under on a number of dribbles Czinano would take during the entire game.(it was 1).

A great example of Lobo's ability to engage with a really interesting fact to illuminate the game.

My favorite announcer and in my estimation one of the best working today.

 

[Bone Dog]

Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.

That may well be what happens. But I don't think we have to belittle Caitlin to imagine how the game might go. She's not a fool, nor is she untalented. She won't get as many assists because her teammates won't get open as much or make their shots when she gets them a dime. I can imagine a blowout or a challenge, and I find the challenge a more interesting target of my imagination.

Also, fortunately for Czinano, she won't have to play Boston, Cardoso and Saxton (and Amihere) all at once. She'll play Boston and Saxton to start, and if you think Caitlin won't be able to get her a pass in position to score over Saxton (who is not a match for her), you're dreaming. How often will that happen? Maybe once or twice. And when Cardoso subs in for Boston and anyone else for Saxton, the same thing will happen. I'm not saying Czinano will score a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if she got 10-12 points. Again, we don't have to belittle really good players to imagine how the game might go.

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

 

[Darwin]

That may well be what happens. But I don't think we have to belittle Caitlin to imagine how the game might go. She's not a fool, nor is she untalented. She won't get as many assists because her teammates won't get open as much or make their shots when she gets them a dime. I can imagine a blowout or a challenge, and I find the challenge a more interesting target of my imagination.

Also, fortunately for Czinano, she won't have to play Boston, Cardoso and Saxton (and Amihere) all at once. She'll play Boston and Saxton to start, and if you think Caitlin won't be able to get her a pass in position to score over Saxton (who is not a match for her), you're dreaming. How often will that happen? Maybe once or twice. And when Cardoso subs in for Boston and anyone else for Saxton, the same thing will happen. I'm not saying Czinano will score a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if she got 10-12 points. Again, we don't have to belittle really good players to imagine how the game might go.

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

Didn’t they play SDSU, UCLA, @Stanford, @MD and @UCONN OOC? Hardly cupcake.

 

[Bone Dog]

Didn’t they play SDSU, UCLA, @Stanford, MD and @Uconn OOC?

Yes, and a bunch of cupcakes, too. And don't worry, I know Dawn has a hard time getting top teams to agree to play her in OOC. I'm not suggesting she mulkeyed the schedule. Now let's see: ETSU, Clemson, Cal Poly, Hampton, Memphis, Liberty, Charleston, Coastal. And before you say "but UConn had cupcakes, too..." other than Northeastern, we didn't.

 

[azfan]

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

Great point! I also concur on the depth of greatness of the Gamecocks. You're also absolutely right, as they make their run through the tournament that greatness will be revealed as they confront their remaining opponents.

 

[Darwin]

Yes, and a bunch of cupcakes, too. And don't worry, I know Dawn has a hard time getting top teams to agree to play her in OOC. I'm not suggesting she mulkeyed the schedule. Now let's see: ETSU, Clemson, Cal Poly, Hampton, Memphis, Liberty, Charleston, Coastal. And before you say "but UConn had cupcakes, too..." other than Northeastern, we didn't.

I may be wrong, but I thought their SOS was ranked top 4-5 in the nation.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) - Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Women's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Bone Dog]

I may be wrong, but I thought their SOS was ranked top 5-7 in the nation.

Even better, namely 4th. But that doesn't really address the weakness of the OOC schedule, which was, frankly, unimpressive. However, once they got into conference play, and as the season progressed, their SoS improved greatly. The rest of the SEC eventually got their act together and that retroactively improved SC's SoS. Stats have to be understood before they can be used. When they played teams like Hampton and Cal Poly, those teams were unimpressive. I might say the same about MD.

 

[Darwin]

@Stanford….#1 seed
@ MD…..#2 seed
@Uconn …..#2 seed
UCLA….#4 seed
NDSU …..neutral court Tourney team, bracket buster

Color me skeptical on the cupcake OOC schedule. There were some dogs in that schedule, but as far as the top 4 -5 OOC games, that seems to be the standard this season for top OOC games. As for the conference schedule, I think Ole Miss, UGA, LSU, UT and MSU have shown their abilities in the tournament. The SEC is something like 11-3 in the tourney, so SC played a tough schedule. Ask some of the teams that have played them so far like Stanford. You can make fun of LSU all you want, you may be right, but so far they are not an easy out in the tourney either. Let’s see how Nova does versus LSU ……My money is on LSU btw..

 

[Bone Dog]

@Stanford….#1 seed
@ MD…..#2 seed
@Uconn …..#2 seed
UCLA….#4 seed

Color me skeptical on the cupcake OOC schedule. There were some dogs in that schedule, but as far as the top 4 OOC games, that seems to be the standard this season. As for the conference schedule, I think Ole Miss, UGA, LSU, UT and MSU are showing their abilities in the tournament. The SEC is something like 11-3 in the tourney, so SC played a tough schedule. Ask some of the teams that have played them so far like Stanford. You can make fun of LSU all you want, you may be right, but so far they are not an easy out in the tourney either. Let’s see how Nova does versus LSU …….

Did you even read my post? Didn't I just say this? The SEC got their act together as the season progressed, however, this also meant that as their W-L records improved, so did the SoS of stronger teams [like SC] who played them when they weren't playing very well yet. But this is besides the point for two reasons: 1) we were talking about OOC, not SEC, and 2) SoS ratings are dynamic, not stable, mono-valent facts. The fact is, SC's OOC schedule was weak at the time they played it, and many of their SEC matchups were also quite weak early in the season. Trying to read their current SoS rating back into it retroactively doesn't change this basic fact. The positive side to this is you can use it to explain away the close calls against Stanford and UCLA, namely by saying they hadn't really been tested by top teams when they played those two. Of course, this won't help explain away the close call against UConn later. For that one, you may have to rely on home court advantage and the notion that UConn was really better without Azzi, etc. Or maybe the basketball used was the wrong brand. I guess MD was better without Miller, too.

But the important thing to remember is that SC is still the prohibitive favorite to win the NC. Just don't make me pretend this means they're also flawless.

 

[Darwin]

Did you even read my post? Didn't I just say this? The SEC got their act together as the season progressed, however, this also meant that as their W-L records improved, so did the SoS of stronger teams [like SC] who played them when they weren't playing very well yet. But this is besides the point for two reasons: 1) we were talking about OOC, not SEC, and 2) SoS ratings are dynamic, not stable, mono-valent facts. The fact is, SC's OOC schedule was weak at the time they played it, and many of their SEC matchups were also quite weak early in the season. Trying to read their current SoS rating back into it retroactively doesn't change this basic fact. The positive side to this is you can use it to explain away the close calls against Stanford and UCLA, namely by saying they hadn't really been tested by top teams when they played those two. Of course, this won't help explain away the close call against UConn later. For that one, you may have to rely on home court advantage and the notion that UConn was really better without Azzi, etc. Or maybe the basketball used was the wrong brand. I guess MD was better without Miller, too.

But the important thing to remember is that SC is still the prohibitive favorite to win the NC. Just don't make me pretend this means they're also flawless.

Humor me, rank UCONN’s top 5 OOC games vs SC’s….we were talking OOC right? Do you feel there was a big difference? Include only teams that made the tourney….that‘s the point you were trying to make right? Rank them against each other….I don’t care either way, was responding to your statement their OOC schedule was “cupcakes”, but as I look at it, their top 5 OOC games close to the Huskies, better than any other schools this season, though I’d have to say UCONN had the top OOC schedule, hardly a huge difference.

SC #1 seed -#1 seed Stanford
MD #2 seed- #2 seed UCONN
Iowa #2 seed- #2 seed MD
ND #3 seed- #4 seed UCLA
Texas #4 seed vs SDSU advantage UCONN
NCSU advantage UCONN


Top four almost identical, strong edge to UCONN for #5 and #6. Both have three OOC opponents left in sweet 16 from those groups and both share common UT who is still alive.

 

[tigers4ever]

They are both quick and fast. No team gets down the court as fast as SC.

I know in wnba when they talk about fast teams, they speak in terms of number of possessions. Teams that push the ball. From the games I've seen, that's not Scar but maybe they do. I thought Dawn was a defense first coach.

 

[Darwin]

I know in wnba when they talk about fast teams, they speak in terms of number of possessions. Teams that push the ball. From the games I've seen, that's not Scar but maybe they do. I thought Dawn was a defense first coach.

SC pushes the ball fast on offense, but yes they are defense first, they hang their hat on that. They run the floor on offense as fast or faster than anyone though, watch them.

 

[tigers4ever]

SC pushes the ball fast on offense, but yes they are defense first, they hang their hat on that. They run the floor on offense as fast or faster than anyone though, watch them.

Definitely, Ive prob seen 4 games this year and I'm always just in awe of their bench strength. Unfortunately, the LSU game was one of the games I watched.

 

[Bone Dog]

Humor me, rank UCONN’s top 5 OOC games vs SC’s….we were talking OOC right? Do you feel there was a big difference? Include only teams that made the tourney….that‘s the point you were trying to make right? Rank them against each other….I don’t care either way, was responding to your statement their OOC schedule was “cupcakes”, but as I look at it, their top 5 OOC games close to the Huskies, better than any other schools this season, though I’d have to say UCONN had the top OOC schedule, hardly a huge difference.

SC #1 seed -#1 seed Stanford
MD #2 seed- #2 seed UCONN
Iowa #2 seed- #2 seed MD
ND #3 seed- #4 seed UCLA
Texas #4 seed vs SDSU advantage UCONN
NCSU advantage UCONN


Top four almost identical, strong edge to UCONN for #5 and #6. Both have three OOC opponents left in sweet 16 from those groups and both share common UT who is still alive.

You see, this is what I mean. I'm not talking about teams that made the tourney, and I don't know why you think that's the issue. You haven't understood me at all. Maybe it's my fault for not being clear. If you want to compare OOC schedules -- I don't know why you insist on this, but whatever -- then do it based on what we all could plainly see about those teams during the OOC portion of the season.

Who did SC play in November? ETSU (101-31), MD (81-56), Clemson (85-31), Stanford (76-71 OT), Cal Poly (79-36), Hampton (85-38), UCLA (73-64) -- 2 real games (Stanford and UCLA) and one semi-real game (MD w/o Miller) and 4 undeniable cupcakes.
Who did they play in December? Memphis, Liberty, SDSU, Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M -- all cupcakes at that moment. SDSU had already lost 5 games out of 12, and Texas A&M was 5-6. SDSU pulled it's act together and finished 29-6 after this game, but that's not indicative of what they were capable of in this game.

Now we can finish the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule if you like, and SC's OOC schedule will look even weaker. But that would have nothing to do with my point, as you ought to know. This entire thing came from one stray remark you latched onto, namely that we don't have to pretend all the teams in SC's bracket are cupcakes in order to make ourselves feel better about the possibility SC could be upset. Instead, I suggested, we should recognize their likely current matchups as teams that are pretty good now, capable of playing really well, and that SC might have to dig deep to beat them, like they did against Stanford, UCLA and UCONN, and even Ole Miss. We might enjoy watching those games a lot more that way, and appreciate just how good SC is even more fully.

Now, have I made myself clear enough for you? Or do you want to continue running the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule, as if that had any relevance?

 

[Darwin]

You see, this is what I mean. I'm not talking about teams that made the tourney, and I don't know why you think that's the issue. You haven't understood me at all. Maybe it's my fault for not being clear. If you want to compare OOC schedules -- I don't know why you insist on this, but whatever -- then do it based on what we all could plainly see about those teams during the OOC portion of the season.

Who did SC play in November? ETSU (101-31), MD (81-56), Clemson (85-31), Stanford (76-71 OT), Cal Poly (79-36), Hampton (85-38), UCLA (73-64) -- 2 real games (Stanford and UCLA) and one semi-real game (MD w/o Miller) and 4 undeniable cupcakes.
Who did they play in December? Memphis, Liberty, SDSU, Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M -- all cupcakes at that moment. SDSU had already lost 5 games out of 12, and Texas A&M was 5-6. SDSU pulled it's act together and finished 29-6 after this game, but that's not indicative of what they were capable of in this game.

Now we can finish the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule if you like, and SC's OOC schedule will look even weaker. But that would have nothing to do with my point, as you ought to know. This entire thing came from one stray remark you latched onto, namely that we don't have to pretend all the teams in SC's bracket are cupcakes in order to make ourselves feel better about the possibility SC could be upset. Instead, I suggested, we should recognize their likely current matchups as teams that are pretty good now, capable of playing really well, and that SC might have to dig deep to beat them, like they did against Stanford, UCLA and UCONN, and even Ole Miss. We might enjoy watching those games a lot more that way, and appreciate just how good SC is even more fully.

Now, have I made myself clear enough for you? Or do you want to continue running the comparison to UConn's OOC schedule, as if that had any relevance?

I would say you make some great points which you do of course. I would also say that trying to extrapolate where some teams were early vs where they finished is not an exact science, I lean on where they finished, that’s just me however, having said all that @Bone Dog, I will take SC’s SOS against all but UCONN’s, and tbh, if LSU boats Nova then we start to get some perspective on the conference SOS also, which of course is all part of the equation in the end is is not? Because you were trying to make the point initially that SC had played a weak schedule, but tbh their OCC schedule was second only to the Huskies and I think the tourney is showing their conference schedule was way better than what UCONN played, so let’s call it a draw in sportsmanship, but there is more insight coming soon in the rest of the tourney games. We will see, but last I checked, SEC was something like 11-3 in this tourney so far, and SC played All their tough OOC games on the road, including @Uconn. Let’s not pretend SC has not gotten better like many other teams have as the season has progressed.

And yes, UCLA and MD are both capable of beating SC, they are both in the category of formidable teams at this juncture. So I am not saying SC will win out, to the contrary, I suspect they could lose to either of those two or to UCONN in the finals if they meet.

 

[Bone Dog]

I would say you make some great points which you do of course. I would also say that trying to extrapolate where some teams were early vs where they finished is not an exact science, I lean on where they finished, that’s just me however, having said all that @Bone Dog, I will take SC’s SOS against all but maybe UCONN, and tbh, if LSU boats Nova then we start to get some perspective on the conference SOS also, which of course is all part of the equation in the end is is not? Because you were trying to make the point initially that SC had played a weak schedule, but tbh their OCC schedule was second only to the Huskies and I think the tourney is showing their conference schedule was way better than what UCONN played, so let’s call it a draw in sportsmanship, but there is more insight coming soon in the rest of the tourney games. We will see, but last I checked, SEC was something like 11-3 in this tourney so far, and SC played All their tough OOC games on the road, including UCONN. Let’s not pretend SC has not gotten better like many teams have as the season has progressed.

Fair enough. I don't actually disagree with any of the points you're making. They just weren't a response to anything I said. But why should you be limited to responding to me. My preoccupations are narrow and not, ultimately, all that interesting. You're trying to prove something about which conference is better, and that's a reasonable topic for speculation. I still think you're misinterpreting the meaning of late season SoS ratings. But my quibble isn't really all that important.

 

[Darwin]

Fair enough. I don't actually disagree with any of the points you're making. They just weren't a response to anything I said. But why should you be limited to responding to me. My preoccupations are narrow and not, ultimately, all that interesting. You're trying to prove something about which conference is better, and that's a reasonable topic for speculation. I still think you're misinterpreting the meaning of late season SoS ratings. But my quibble isn't really all that important.

They were initially related to the cupcake OOC statement of course. But I think I pointed out only UCONN played a tougher OOC schedule, so it’s not like SC played some kind of weak OOC schedule. Peace.

 

[Bjbod]

Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.

Lots of good points by all as usual at The Boneyard. Although these hypotheticals are fun to debate I can guarantee Iowa's team and coaches are focusing 100% on the Colorado Buffaloes; everyone still alive is both good and playing well. I'm sure they have some staff members accumulating film and info on Ole Miss and Louisville, but that won't be presented unless they win Friday. Iowa's margin for error is razor thin, and they know it. I posted prior to the Georgia game that I'd happily take a one point win vs the Bulldogs, and that was before I knew Hannah Stuelke was out.

Okay, disclaimers out of the way, let's speculate about an Iowa/South Carolina match up. There's no question the Gamecocks are the superior team, and it's not even close. There's been some chatter about Iowa having some players that could match USC's quickness: NO WAY! Caitlin Clark is fairly quick, but her main asset is speed down the court. The rest of the team isn't close to USC, and many other teams as well. If they played in the Final Four the chance of South Carolina winning would be easily above 90%. Villanova beat Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team in 1985, but it will take something similar for Iowa to win that match up.

IF it were up to me, I'd play conservative defense....at least in the 1st half: always play behind your player, try to box out on the shot, and pray they have an off night shooting. Push the pace relentlessly in an effort to get shots before South Carolina can get everyone back on D.
IF Iowa could stay within 10 rebounds AND shoot > 40% on 3's, they could potentially be within 10 points after 3 quarters. With a wild card in Caitlin Clark, there's always the chance of some craziness on the offensive end; while South Carolina is experienced and I wouldn't expect it, you never know what might happen in a close game with an undefeated season on the line.

Darwin is correct that Clark could potentially put up 25+ shots in a game like this, but it wouldn't be because she was baited into it; her basketball IQ is actually quite high. If she did shoot that often it would be out of necessity: since South Carolina is more athletic at every position except perhaps vs Caitlin, she could be the only Hawkeye that can get a shot on many possessions. There are a lot of posters that criticize Clark by labeling her a 'volume shooter'. She does average 18 shots per game this year, but Maddy Siegrist shoots 20 times/game for Villanova. I don't recall seeing many comments labeling her the same. None of her (Clark's) teammates feel she shoots too much; it's incredible how much she elevates everyone's game around her.

Looking forward to all the great basketball this weekend. Outside of South Carolina's games and perhaps UConn's, pretty much every game could go either way. Monday night's conversations should be good!

 

[nwhoopfan]

Villanova vs. LSU is getting ahead of ourselves, they both need to win a game first before that can happen.

 

[Darwin]

Lots of good points by all as usual at The Boneyard. Although these hypotheticals are fun to debate I can guarantee Iowa's team and coaches are focusing 100% on the Colorado Buffaloes; everyone still alive is both good and playing well. I'm sure they have some staff members accumulating film and info on Ole Miss and Louisville, but that won't be presented unless they win Friday. Iowa's margin for error is razor thin, and they know it. I posted prior to the Georgia game that I'd happily take a one point win vs the Bulldogs, and that was before I knew Hannah Stuelke was out.

Okay, disclaimers out of the way, let's speculate about an Iowa/South Carolina match up. There's no question the Gamecocks are the superior team, and it's not even close. There's been some chatter about Iowa having some players that could match USC's quickness: NO WAY! Caitlin Clark is fairly quick, but her main asset is speed down the court. The rest of the team isn't close to USC, and many other teams as well. If they played in the Final Four the chance of South Carolina winning would be easily above 90%. Villanova beat Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team in 1985, but it will take something similar for Iowa to win that match up.

IF it were up to me, I'd play conservative defense....at least in the 1st half: always play behind your player, try to box out on the shot, and pray they have an off night shooting. Push the pace relentlessly in an effort to get shots before South Carolina can get everyone back on D.
IF Iowa could stay within 10 rebounds AND shoot > 40% on 3's, they could potentially be within 10 points after 3 quarters. With a wild card in Caitlin Clark, there's always the chance of some craziness on the offensive end; while South Carolina is experienced and I wouldn't expect it, you never know what might happen in a close game with an undefeated season on the line.

Darwin is correct that Clark could potentially put up 25+ shots in a game like this, but it wouldn't be because she was baited into it; her basketball IQ is actually quite high. If she did shoot that often it would be out of necessity: since South Carolina is more athletic at every position except perhaps vs Caitlin, she could be the only Hawkeye that can get a shot on many possessions. There are a lot of posters that criticize Clark by labeling her a 'volume shooter'. She does average 18 shots per game this year, but Maddy Siegrist shoots 20 times/game for Villanova. I don't recall seeing many comments labeling her the same. None of her (Clark's) teammates feel she shoots too much; it's incredible how much she elevates everyone's game around her.

Looking forward to all the great basketball this weekend. Outside of South Carolina's games and perhaps UConn's, pretty much every game could go either way. Monday night's conversations should be good!

One of the best, most balanced and objective posts I have read in a long while, you are correct about Clark of course, she makes all her teammates better and she is not a ball hog in anyway bad, she is just that good.

 

[Darwin]

Villanova vs. LSU is getting ahead of ourselves, they both need to win a game first before that can happen.

This is so true, I think I know LSU will beat Utah, but I have no idea who wins the Miami vs Nova game tbh. Miami has not been great this year, and their IU win may be fool’s gold going fwd. May be…

 

[nwhoopfan]

This is so true, I think I know LSU will beat Utah, but I have no idea who wins the Miami vs Nova game tbh. Miami has not been great this year, and their IU win may be fool’s gold going fwd. May be…

Miami has beaten North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida St. and now Indiana. Villanova's best win is?...Princeton, Creighton or Marquette. . You can argue about UNC and FSU, but Miami clearly has 2 wins over better teams than anybody Nova has managed to take down. I have absolutely no idea what to expect in this one

LSU over Utah is no foregone conclusion in my mind.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Villanova vs. LSU is getting ahead of ourselves, they both need to win a game first before that can happen.

The majority of this thread has been getting ahead of themselves.