Thoughts after watching the first two rounds

[Bone Dog]

I just don’t see Iowa beating South Carolina. Czinano is gonna have a very hard time scoring against Boston imo, and SC is just so much faster and more athletic than Iowa. I think UConn has a much better shot matching up with SC’s athleticism

I don’t think the odds are all that good for an Iowa win. But I disagree that SC has a speed advantage. The only “slow” player on the Iowa roster is O’Grady. Caitlin is as quick as anyone SC has, maybe quicker. Same for Marshall and Martin, and Stuelke is surprisingly quick. I doubt Beal could keep up with Caitlin.

Of course, they give up a lot in front court height, but Czinano is very strong. Maybe not strong enough to hold off Boston, but she’s not easy to push around.

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

 

[DEpup]

I think SC is definitely beatable. They are still clear favorites to win it all. Most of their games are like Ali-Foreman. They take the best shot a competitive opponent has, then wear them out in the second half. It’s a good strategy. It also means Dawn has learned how to make good adjustments at halftime.

If SC were to lose, how would it happen? Indulge me. Well, they have 4 tough games ahead of them — this is the NCAA tournament after all. Of course they’ll be facing their toughest competition of the year. Next game is UCLA, and they can surprise. After that it’s MD or ND, either one also capable of surprising. I suspect MD poses the deeper challenge. And then Iowa, supposing they make it that far. This could be the most interesting game of the year, given how different Iowa is from most anyone in the SEC.

After that, it’s either VT or UConn. I think VT would be easy after the rest of that gauntlet. UConn could be either hard or easy, depending on how well Azzi Caroline Lou and Aubrey play on that night. If they’re all on their A games, it could quite a contest. Let’s hope so, for the sake of WCBB!

I think it can happen if SCar has trouble executing on offense which they have been known to do. They can get really stagnant. Then if the opponent can execute and sustain making shots without wearing down.

 

[Darwin]

The finals will be SC/UCONN

SC 74 UCONN 71

 

[Darwin]

I don’t think the odds are all that good for an Iowa win. But I disagree that SC has a speed advantage. The only “slow” player on the Iowa roster is O’Grady. Caitlin is as quick as anyone SC has, maybe quicker. Same for Marshall and Martin, and Stuelke is surprisingly quick. I doubt Beal could keep up with Caitlin.

Of course, they give up a lot in front court height, but Czinano is very strong. Maybe not strong enough to hold off Boston, but she’s not easy to push around.

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

SC is way faster than Iowa at almost every position. If you are talking strictly speed, it’s not a contest, what games have you been watching? Most of SC’s 3-4 players are faster than Iowa’s 1-2 -3 players, and SC’s 1-2 players are light years faster than anything Iowa has. Plus SC’s bigs are much faster than Ciz…..way faster. Team wise it’s no contest if we are talking speed. SC is likely the fastest team in the nation, esp when Raven is running the point.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I don’t think the odds are all that good for an Iowa win. But I disagree that SC has a speed advantage. The only “slow” player on the Iowa roster is O’Grady. Caitlin is as quick as anyone SC has, maybe quicker. Same for Marshall and Martin, and Stuelke is surprisingly quick. I doubt Beal could keep up with Caitlin.

Of course, they give up a lot in front court height, but Czinano is very strong. Maybe not strong enough to hold off Boston, but she’s not easy to push around.

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

Yea I don’t think Iowa would or will beat South Carolina. However, if we are engaging in a thought exercise the only way it would happen would be to exchange 2’s for threes.

Defensively: Iowa won’t be able to defend South Carolina, they simply aren’t capable. They shouldn’t even exert too much effort trying. Do some sort of aggressive perimeter and defend the post straight up 1 on 1 but then send two-three shooters to the other end to get quick open threes the other way the second the ball goes through the basket.

Offensively: South Carolina struggled to defend UConn’s 5 out offense. Monica, as far as I know, isn’t a threat from outside at all which makes Iowa a slightly easier match up i that regard. You can’t pull Boston or Cardosa away from the basket at all which means help defenders can stay home when Clark attacks. My guess is Clark will need to carry the scoring load with a strong midrange game ( when she gets by her defender but before she gets to Boston waiting in the paint) in the first quarter and force South Carolina to start helping. The difference between Iowa and every other team South Carolina has played this season is once you shut down the first offensive game plan they’ll be able to counter with different options because Clark is so dynamic and their shooters are so deadly.

I’d give South Carolina a 99% chance of beating Iowa but if they were to lose the above I’d the only way I’d see it.

 

[Darwin]

12 might be on the low side! Azzi could easily hit 6-8 by herself if she gets hot. I could see that group hitting 16-18 if they all went off in the same game. Of course, the opposition will have something to say about it as well, but UConn clearly has (even without Paige) about as scary a three point shooting lineup as I’ve seen in a long time. It would be fun (for us) to see them all get going in the same game.

Against the SC defense nobody is hitting that many threes, sorry.

 

[Bone Dog]

SC is way faster than Iowa at almost every position. If you are talking strictly speed, it’s not a contest, what games have you been watching? Most of SC’s 3-4 players are faster than Iowa’s 1-2 -3 players, and SC’s 1-2 players are light years faster than anything Iowa has. Plus SC’s bigs are much faster than Ciz…..way faster. Team wise it’s no contest if we are talking speed. SC is likely the fastest team in the nation, esp when Raven is running the point.

I didn’t say Czinano was fast. I said she was strong. I also mainly said Caitlin is quicker than anyone on SC. Do you disagree? I think Marshall and Martin are also quite quick.

Why do I think this? Because UConn has played both teams and SC didn’t show out as faster or quicker. They did show out as stronger and taller. I agree that Raven is very quick. She looked to be a bit quicker than Nika. Not quick enough to free up her own shot in that game and as a result she shot poorly. But still quick. Nika face guarded Caitlin very effectively. We’ll see if Raven or Brea can do better. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Now let’s be clear about what quickness means on a basketball court. It’s not the same as straight line sprinting. It’s about that first step, and changing direction before the defender can respond, or about getting to the spot on D before the opponent. Caitlin is pretty darn quick in this sense.

I really look forward to seeing what that matchup will look like.

 

[tigers4ever]

SC is way faster than Iowa at almost every position. If you are talking strictly speed, it’s not a contest, what games have you been watching? Most of SC’s 3-4 players are faster than Iowa’s 1-2 -3 players, and SC’s 1-2 players are light years faster than anything Iowa has. Plus SC’s bigs are much faster than Ciz…..way faster. Team wise it’s no contest if we are talking speed. SC is likely the fastest team in the nation, esp when Raven is running the point.

Just curious, what metrics are you using to say that SCar is the fastest team in the nation? Is it just an eye test?

 

[JstVisiting]

12 might be on the low side! Azzi could easily hit 6-8 by herself if she gets hot. I could see that group hitting 16-18 if they all went off in the same game. Of course, the opposition will have something to say about it as well, but UConn clearly has (even without Paige) about as scary a three point shooting lineup as I’ve seen in a long time. It would be fun (for us) to see them all get going in the same game.

If a team shooting a pedestrian 34% from 3 in their first two games tied the all time tournament record a single game, they probably would be pretty tough to beat.

 

[JstVisiting]

I don’t think the odds are all that good for an Iowa win. But I disagree that SC has a speed advantage. The only “slow” player on the Iowa roster is O’Grady. Caitlin is as quick as anyone SC has, maybe quicker. Same for Marshall and Martin, and Stuelke is surprisingly quick. I doubt Beal could keep up with Caitlin.

Of course, they give up a lot in front court height, but Czinano is very strong. Maybe not strong enough to hold off Boston, but she’s not easy to push around.

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

 

[tigers4ever]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Are you saying they are quick, fast or both? Like quick hands, quick first step, or fast tempo of pushing the ball, or individual players guards that are fast with ball in their hands or big players that can run the floor, etc? SCar is # 1 in the country easily but I don't think speed is the main reason for that. SCar most dominating attributes are size and depth. SCar is not slow but I don't see them as being noticeably faster than many other top teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s defense. There’s a difference. You know who else’s defense they struggled with? UConn’s.

And speaking of teams who struggled against UConn’s defense, SC shot 38% against them, and their guards as a group shot 9-43. That’s struggling. It’s a good thing they rebounded so well to make up for it.

 

[sharris25]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s defense. There’s a difference. You know who else’s defense they struggled with? UConn’s.

And speaking of teams who struggled against UConn’s defense, SC shot 38% against them, and their guards as a group shot 9-43. That’s struggling. It’s a good thing they rebounded so well to make up for it.

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

 

[Bone Dog]

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

No one is denying that SC is a massive favorite to win it all. And the neutral court will be a significant factor. And yes, SC played good D in that game against UConn, too. I think it’s likely they’ll play even better defense against Iowa, just looking at likely matchups. Who knows, they may even totally shut down Caitlin.

But, it’s not inconceivable that Caitlin will prove more elusive than SC’s guards can handle, and that Martin and Marshall will catch fire too. It’s happened before. If this were to occur, this would be a much more interesting game… though Iowa would still probably lose.

SC’s dominance is not so great as to forbid all speculation about possible upsets. I mean, really, wouldn’t a close game be more fun to watch even for SC fans? If no team ever really tests them, how will you know how great they really are?

 

[hoopsnloops32]

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

South Carolina game was UConns best offensive performance since January, besides Vermont, including the games Azzi has been back. How did they shut UConn down on offense?

 

[GamecockFam]

I doubt in a hypothetical matchup that we will shut Clark down. She'll get her points. But I don't see anyone else on that team bringing a major factor. I could see Marshall and Martin causing some havoc at moments because all the attention is on Clark. I think we would shut down Cinzano, Warnock, Stuelke, and O'Grady . The mixture of height and athleticism under the basket at South Carolina would overwhelm those players. I would think that we would try a mix of Amihere and Beal to mitigate Clark's ability to pass and shoot but doing so would probably put Cooke on Martin and that would be an exploitable height match up. I think overall, though, South Carolina will pull away and Cardoso and Boston will both have double-doubles in a win over Iowa.

 

[GCKSFN4L]

No one is unbeatable but I don't see Iowa being the one to knock SC off. Czinano has disappeared with certain matchups. Even an undersized Maryland held her in check when they played at Maryland. The post depth can make things difficult for her.

As for Clark I think SC would play her straight up on defense and really try to disrupt her ability to pass, similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

No one is unbeatable but I don't see Iowa being the one to knock SC off. Czinano has disappeared with certain matchups. Even an undersized Maryland held her in check when they played at Maryland. The post depth can make things difficult for her.

As for Clark I think SC would play her straight up on defense and really try to disrupt her ability to pass, similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

This sounds about right to me. Also, I hadn’t heard about possible regular season games. Too bad they didn’t happen. Those would have been interesting games.

 

[Darwin]

Are you saying they are quick, fast or both? Like quick hands, quick first step, or fast tempo of pushing the ball, or individual players guards that are fast with ball in their hands or big players that can run the floor, etc? SCar is # 1 in the country easily but I don't think speed is the main reason for that. SCar most dominating attributes are size and depth. SCar is not slow but I don't see them as being noticeably faster than many other top teams.

They are both quick and fast. No team gets down the court as fast as SC.

 

[Darwin]

Just curious, what metrics are you using to say that SCar is the fastest team in the nation? Is it just an eye test?

Yes.

 

[azfan]

--South Carolina has not shown any signs of being beatable. Just too deep.

--Niele Ivey loses her two starting guards and still makes the Sweet 16. Well done Irish.

--Hows does Stanford, with two All-American starters, lose to an eighth seed at home? It is not too drastic to suggest that Tara needs to call it a career.

--Parity in the women's game has shown itself with the increasing number of athletic, physical teams. Baylor, Miami, Ole Miss come to mind. Nobody wants to play Georgia.

--Carla Berube is favored by many UConn fans to take Geno's place when he retires. I am not sure how she recruits but the woman can coach. A great comeback against NC State and a near miss against Utah were both illustrations of how well coached Princeton is.

--Indiana basically ran out of gas. Losses to Iowa, OSU and the Miami upset overshadowed a great year. Holmes being less than 100% was a factor down the stretch but Noren plays her starters too many minutes during the regular season.

--Kara Lawson is a class act but unless I am missing something, her offense has to improve.

--I watched Louisville several time early in the season and I thought this was the year that team takes its lumps. Louisville looked great in embarrassing Texas. Hats of to Jeff Walz.

--Maddy Siegrist deserves the attention she receives but sophomore point guard Lucy Olsen is the glue to that team.

--The announcers compared OSU's freshman Cody McMahon to Lebron James. I wouldn't go that far but she has future All-American written all over her.

--My guess is UConn/South Carolina rematch in the final game. It won't matter. The Gamecocks repeat.

Absolutely

 

[azfan]

I just don’t see Iowa beating South Carolina. Czinano is gonna have a very hard time scoring against Boston imo, and SC is just so much faster and more athletic than Iowa. I think UConn has a much better shot matching up with SC’s athleticism

Because they won't.

 

[azfan]

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

As they have all season and will be too much going forward.

 

[azfan]

Similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

Totally on point. Clark gets her season average on 25+ shots, USC wins by double digits.