Thoughts after watching the first two rounds

[Darwin]

12 might be on the low side! Azzi could easily hit 6-8 by herself if she gets hot. I could see that group hitting 16-18 if they all went off in the same game. Of course, the opposition will have something to say about it as well, but UConn clearly has (even without Paige) about as scary a three point shooting lineup as I’ve seen in a long time. It would be fun (for us) to see them all get going in the same game.

Against the SC defense nobody is hitting that many threes, sorry.

 

[Bone Dog]

SC is way faster than Iowa at almost every position. If you are talking strictly speed, it’s not a contest, what games have you been watching? Most of SC’s 3-4 players are faster than Iowa’s 1-2 -3 players, and SC’s 1-2 players are light years faster than anything Iowa has. Plus SC’s bigs are much faster than Ciz…..way faster. Team wise it’s no contest if we are talking speed. SC is likely the fastest team in the nation, esp when Raven is running the point.

I didn’t say Czinano was fast. I said she was strong. I also mainly said Caitlin is quicker than anyone on SC. Do you disagree? I think Marshall and Martin are also quite quick.

Why do I think this? Because UConn has played both teams and SC didn’t show out as faster or quicker. They did show out as stronger and taller. I agree that Raven is very quick. She looked to be a bit quicker than Nika. Not quick enough to free up her own shot in that game and as a result she shot poorly. But still quick. Nika face guarded Caitlin very effectively. We’ll see if Raven or Brea can do better. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Now let’s be clear about what quickness means on a basketball court. It’s not the same as straight line sprinting. It’s about that first step, and changing direction before the defender can respond, or about getting to the spot on D before the opponent. Caitlin is pretty darn quick in this sense.

I really look forward to seeing what that matchup will look like.

 

[tigers4ever]

SC is way faster than Iowa at almost every position. If you are talking strictly speed, it’s not a contest, what games have you been watching? Most of SC’s 3-4 players are faster than Iowa’s 1-2 -3 players, and SC’s 1-2 players are light years faster than anything Iowa has. Plus SC’s bigs are much faster than Ciz…..way faster. Team wise it’s no contest if we are talking speed. SC is likely the fastest team in the nation, esp when Raven is running the point.

Just curious, what metrics are you using to say that SCar is the fastest team in the nation? Is it just an eye test?

 

[JstVisiting]

12 might be on the low side! Azzi could easily hit 6-8 by herself if she gets hot. I could see that group hitting 16-18 if they all went off in the same game. Of course, the opposition will have something to say about it as well, but UConn clearly has (even without Paige) about as scary a three point shooting lineup as I’ve seen in a long time. It would be fun (for us) to see them all get going in the same game.

If a team shooting a pedestrian 34% from 3 in their first two games tied the all time tournament record a single game, they probably would be pretty tough to beat.

 

[JstVisiting]

I don’t think the odds are all that good for an Iowa win. But I disagree that SC has a speed advantage. The only “slow” player on the Iowa roster is O’Grady. Caitlin is as quick as anyone SC has, maybe quicker. Same for Marshall and Martin, and Stuelke is surprisingly quick. I doubt Beal could keep up with Caitlin.

Of course, they give up a lot in front court height, but Czinano is very strong. Maybe not strong enough to hold off Boston, but she’s not easy to push around.

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

 

[tigers4ever]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Are you saying they are quick, fast or both? Like quick hands, quick first step, or fast tempo of pushing the ball, or individual players guards that are fast with ball in their hands or big players that can run the floor, etc? SCar is # 1 in the country easily but I don't think speed is the main reason for that. SCar most dominating attributes are size and depth. SCar is not slow but I don't see them as being noticeably faster than many other top teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s quickness. I assure you the Lady Dawgs are not faster than South Carolina, though they are a bit smaller.

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s defense. There’s a difference. You know who else’s defense they struggled with? UConn’s.

And speaking of teams who struggled against UConn’s defense, SC shot 38% against them, and their guards as a group shot 9-43. That’s struggling. It’s a good thing they rebounded so well to make up for it.

 

[sharris25]

Iowa struggled all afternoon with Georgia’s defense. There’s a difference. You know who else’s defense they struggled with? UConn’s.

And speaking of teams who struggled against UConn’s defense, SC shot 38% against them, and their guards as a group shot 9-43. That’s struggling. It’s a good thing they rebounded so well to make up for it.

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

 

[Bone Dog]

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

No one is denying that SC is a massive favorite to win it all. And the neutral court will be a significant factor. And yes, SC played good D in that game against UConn, too. I think it’s likely they’ll play even better defense against Iowa, just looking at likely matchups. Who knows, they may even totally shut down Caitlin.

But, it’s not inconceivable that Caitlin will prove more elusive than SC’s guards can handle, and that Martin and Marshall will catch fire too. It’s happened before. If this were to occur, this would be a much more interesting game… though Iowa would still probably lose.

SC’s dominance is not so great as to forbid all speculation about possible upsets. I mean, really, wouldn’t a close game be more fun to watch even for SC fans? If no team ever really tests them, how will you know how great they really are?

 

[hoopsnloops32]

South Carolina defense, though shut Uconn and everyone else they have played down and this was with Uconn at home. The crowd will be more neutral at a final four, and even Uconn analyst, Lobo stated that SC played a subpar game at Uconn and was able to beat them. Can't remember what Uconn ended up shooting against SC, but I dont think it was great. SC would love to play Iowa. They spent years dealing with Rhyne Howard and some other big time scores who had some help. Caitlyn Clark had little to no help against Georgia and no bench support. Wonder how that fairs against SC that gets 34 pts a game from their bench.

South Carolina game was UConns best offensive performance since January, besides Vermont, including the games Azzi has been back. How did they shut UConn down on offense?

 

[GamecockFam]

I doubt in a hypothetical matchup that we will shut Clark down. She'll get her points. But I don't see anyone else on that team bringing a major factor. I could see Marshall and Martin causing some havoc at moments because all the attention is on Clark. I think we would shut down Cinzano, Warnock, Stuelke, and O'Grady . The mixture of height and athleticism under the basket at South Carolina would overwhelm those players. I would think that we would try a mix of Amihere and Beal to mitigate Clark's ability to pass and shoot but doing so would probably put Cooke on Martin and that would be an exploitable height match up. I think overall, though, South Carolina will pull away and Cardoso and Boston will both have double-doubles in a win over Iowa.

 

[GCKSFN4L]

No one is unbeatable but I don't see Iowa being the one to knock SC off. Czinano has disappeared with certain matchups. Even an undersized Maryland held her in check when they played at Maryland. The post depth can make things difficult for her.

As for Clark I think SC would play her straight up on defense and really try to disrupt her ability to pass, similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

No one is unbeatable but I don't see Iowa being the one to knock SC off. Czinano has disappeared with certain matchups. Even an undersized Maryland held her in check when they played at Maryland. The post depth can make things difficult for her.

As for Clark I think SC would play her straight up on defense and really try to disrupt her ability to pass, similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

This sounds about right to me. Also, I hadn’t heard about possible regular season games. Too bad they didn’t happen. Those would have been interesting games.

 

[SJF]

Tenn was definitely treated very well by the committee. Got to host when not even being ranked most of the year. 1st round game vs a 17-17 record team which should have been a 16 seed. Let’s face it SC had a tougher 1st round game vs Norfolk. Then 2nd round vs Toledo or Iowa St who has not been close to good since losing their post player.

 

[Darwin]

Are you saying they are quick, fast or both? Like quick hands, quick first step, or fast tempo of pushing the ball, or individual players guards that are fast with ball in their hands or big players that can run the floor, etc? SCar is # 1 in the country easily but I don't think speed is the main reason for that. SCar most dominating attributes are size and depth. SCar is not slow but I don't see them as being noticeably faster than many other top teams.

They are both quick and fast. No team gets down the court as fast as SC.

 

[Darwin]

Just curious, what metrics are you using to say that SCar is the fastest team in the nation? Is it just an eye test?

Yes.

 

[azfan]

--South Carolina has not shown any signs of being beatable. Just too deep.

--Niele Ivey loses her two starting guards and still makes the Sweet 16. Well done Irish.

--Hows does Stanford, with two All-American starters, lose to an eighth seed at home? It is not too drastic to suggest that Tara needs to call it a career.

--Parity in the women's game has shown itself with the increasing number of athletic, physical teams. Baylor, Miami, Ole Miss come to mind. Nobody wants to play Georgia.

--Carla Berube is favored by many UConn fans to take Geno's place when he retires. I am not sure how she recruits but the woman can coach. A great comeback against NC State and a near miss against Utah were both illustrations of how well coached Princeton is.

--Indiana basically ran out of gas. Losses to Iowa, OSU and the Miami upset overshadowed a great year. Holmes being less than 100% was a factor down the stretch but Noren plays her starters too many minutes during the regular season.

--Kara Lawson is a class act but unless I am missing something, her offense has to improve.

--I watched Louisville several time early in the season and I thought this was the year that team takes its lumps. Louisville looked great in embarrassing Texas. Hats of to Jeff Walz.

--Maddy Siegrist deserves the attention she receives but sophomore point guard Lucy Olsen is the glue to that team.

--The announcers compared OSU's freshman Cody McMahon to Lebron James. I wouldn't go that far but she has future All-American written all over her.

--My guess is UConn/South Carolina rematch in the final game. It won't matter. The Gamecocks repeat.

Absolutely

 

[azfan]

I just don’t see Iowa beating South Carolina. Czinano is gonna have a very hard time scoring against Boston imo, and SC is just so much faster and more athletic than Iowa. I think UConn has a much better shot matching up with SC’s athleticism

Because they won't.

 

[azfan]

So it will be the usual mismatch. Iowa will torch them from the perimeter. But SC’s paint points and rebounding advantage will be too much for Iowa to overcome. I’d look for SC to try to slow the game down and for Iowa to take every opportunity to run.

As they have all season and will be too much going forward.

 

[azfan]

Similar to how they approached Nika in the UConn matchup. If anything I could see Dawn giving Clark difficult looks in which she attempts 25+ shots, essentially shooting her team out of the game and her abilities a floor general becomes an afterthought.

I'm still disappointed that Bluder didn't keep her end of the bargain on a regular season matchup between these two teams.

Totally on point. Clark gets her season average on 25+ shots, USC wins by double digits.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think Czinano would score some points against SC. She's got good post moves and a quick release. What she won't do much of is rebound. And I don't think Czinano and Warnock will be able to prevent a ton of O-boards for SC. We don't have to reinvent the wheel to imagine how SC will win. They'll pound the paint and get most of the rebounds and score a ton on put-backs. Maybe their guards will score some, too, but that's less predictable or reliable.

 

[Darwin]

Totally on point. Clark gets her season average on 25+ shots, USC wins by double digits.

Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.

 

[azfan]

I think Czinano would score some points against SC. She's got good post moves and a quick release. What she won't do much of is rebound. And I don't think Czinano and Warnock will be able to prevent a ton of O-boards for SC. We don't have to reinvent the wheel to imagine how SC will win. They'll pound the paint and get most of the rebounds and score a ton on put-backs. Maybe their guards will score some, too, but that's less predictable or reliable.

Czinano, a solid compliment for Clark, will get very few points as Boston, Cardoso, Saxton and company dominate the paint.

I had to love Rebecca Lobo's comment on Czinano in the pregame before their last contest is she talked about the over under on a number of dribbles Czinano would take during the entire game.(it was 1).

A great example of Lobo's ability to engage with a really interesting fact to illuminate the game.

My favorite announcer and in my estimation one of the best working today.

 

[Bone Dog]

Coach Staley will play man to man if they meet Iowa, like they always play against everyone. And she will put a defender on Clark who will do exactly as you say, “encourage “ her to put up 25 shots while at the same time never giving her many clean looks, it won’t be pretty for Iowa. And Clark will take the bait.

That may well be what happens. But I don't think we have to belittle Caitlin to imagine how the game might go. She's not a fool, nor is she untalented. She won't get as many assists because her teammates won't get open as much or make their shots when she gets them a dime. I can imagine a blowout or a challenge, and I find the challenge a more interesting target of my imagination.

Also, fortunately for Czinano, she won't have to play Boston, Cardoso and Saxton (and Amihere) all at once. She'll play Boston and Saxton to start, and if you think Caitlin won't be able to get her a pass in position to score over Saxton (who is not a match for her), you're dreaming. How often will that happen? Maybe once or twice. And when Cardoso subs in for Boston and anyone else for Saxton, the same thing will happen. I'm not saying Czinano will score a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if she got 10-12 points. Again, we don't have to belittle really good players to imagine how the game might go.

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

 

[Darwin]

That may well be what happens. But I don't think we have to belittle Caitlin to imagine how the game might go. She's not a fool, nor is she untalented. She won't get as many assists because her teammates won't get open as much or make their shots when she gets them a dime. I can imagine a blowout or a challenge, and I find the challenge a more interesting target of my imagination.

Also, fortunately for Czinano, she won't have to play Boston, Cardoso and Saxton (and Amihere) all at once. She'll play Boston and Saxton to start, and if you think Caitlin won't be able to get her a pass in position to score over Saxton (who is not a match for her), you're dreaming. How often will that happen? Maybe once or twice. And when Cardoso subs in for Boston and anyone else for Saxton, the same thing will happen. I'm not saying Czinano will score a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if she got 10-12 points. Again, we don't have to belittle really good players to imagine how the game might go.

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

Didn’t they play SDSU, UCLA, @Stanford, @MD and @UCONN OOC? Hardly cupcake.

 

[Bone Dog]

Didn’t they play SDSU, UCLA, @Stanford, MD and @Uconn OOC?

Yes, and a bunch of cupcakes, too. And don't worry, I know Dawn has a hard time getting top teams to agree to play her in OOC. I'm not suggesting she mulkeyed the schedule. Now let's see: ETSU, Clemson, Cal Poly, Hampton, Memphis, Liberty, Charleston, Coastal. And before you say "but UConn had cupcakes, too..." other than Northeastern, we didn't.

 

[azfan]

And just generally, I prefer to imagine how other teams might really test SC. What inner depths of greatness does SC have at this time of year? I suspect they are considerable, but if we convince ourselves the tournament will be just a rerun of the cupcake OOC schedule that started the year, we won't get to savor just how great the team Dawn put together really is.

Great point! I also concur on the depth of greatness of the Gamecocks. You're also absolutely right, as they make their run through the tournament that greatness will be revealed as they confront their remaining opponents.

 

[Darwin]

Yes, and a bunch of cupcakes, too. And don't worry, I know Dawn has a hard time getting top teams to agree to play her in OOC. I'm not suggesting she mulkeyed the schedule. Now let's see: ETSU, Clemson, Cal Poly, Hampton, Memphis, Liberty, Charleston, Coastal. And before you say "but UConn had cupcakes, too..." other than Northeastern, we didn't.

I may be wrong, but I thought their SOS was ranked top 4-5 in the nation.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) - Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Women's College Basketball Strength of Schedule (SOS) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Bone Dog]

I may be wrong, but I thought their SOS was ranked top 5-7 in the nation.

Even better, namely 4th. But that doesn't really address the weakness of the OOC schedule, which was, frankly, unimpressive. However, once they got into conference play, and as the season progressed, their SoS improved greatly. The rest of the SEC eventually got their act together and that retroactively improved SC's SoS. Stats have to be understood before they can be used. When they played teams like Hampton and Cal Poly, those teams were unimpressive. I might say the same about MD.

 

[Darwin]

@Stanford….#1 seed
@ MD…..#2 seed
@Uconn …..#2 seed
UCLA….#4 seed
NDSU …..neutral court Tourney team, bracket buster

Color me skeptical on the cupcake OOC schedule. There were some dogs in that schedule, but as far as the top 4 -5 OOC games, that seems to be the standard this season for top OOC games. As for the conference schedule, I think Ole Miss, UGA, LSU, UT and MSU have shown their abilities in the tournament. The SEC is something like 11-3 in the tourney, so SC played a tough schedule. Ask some of the teams that have played them so far like Stanford. You can make fun of LSU all you want, you may be right, but so far they are not an easy out in the tourney either. Let’s see how Nova does versus LSU ……My money is on LSU btw..