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Thoughts about the UConn / Baylor match-ups

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cferraro04

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I am in the camp that believes that this year's championship is Baylor's to lose. That being said I think that UConn has the best chance to upend last years champions. The addition of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson after losing Tiffany Hayes and Michala Johnson indicated that the Huskies got richer. Also UConn was fairly young the past two years...they are a year older and should play better and more mature. But, to be fair so is Baylor. They will also be better but which team will improve the most? I think the short answer is UConn. The new players fill areas that UConn needed to be filled.
Let's take a walk down UConn's roster.
UConn
1. KML will be better and we should see that vaulted sophomore jump. She is a lights out shooter who really didn't have a great game against Baylor early last season.
2. Hartley was incredible in that early game against Baylor...she had 25 points (10-17 and 5-8). She has been playing out of position at the 1. She is a natural 2 and there is a good chance she will be seeing more time at her natural position this year. She did not have a great year from three last year but came on stronger in that category later in the season.
3. Doty was still recovering from her ACL injury and consequently saw limited minutes. I think she still sees limited minutes this season...not because of her injury rather because Geno will be challenged to spread the minutes around. She will see some minutes at the point giving Hartley a chance to play the 2. She was an absolute no-show in the Baylor - UConn game.
4. Dolson was supposed to show us the sophomore jump but she showed us the sophomore slump. She did come on the last the third of the season. She ended up with 10.8 points and 6.0 rebounds for the season. Not exactly what Geno had in mind when he said that she was the second best center in WCBB. She did play better later in the season but she was mostly ineffective against Baylor scoring 6 points and grabbing only 4 rebounds.
5. Faris is a good all around player who usually fills the stat sheet in almost every category...she had an absolutely horrible shooting night against Baylor going 1-9 and 1-7 from three. but she did have 8 assists and 6 rebounds. She plays a lot of minutes for UConn but I expect she will be giving some of the minutes (4-5) to the newbies who will need to get their minutes from someplace.
6. Stokes has a tremendous upside and she definitely showed it late in the season. She by her own admission wasn't doing what needed to be done and somewhere towards the end of the season and into the post season her minutes went up and her scoring and rebounding went up as well. I fully expect to see Kiah demonstrate the sophomore jump and I look to her to up her 13.4 minutes up to about 17 minutes and to be a more productive force in the middle for UConn.
7. Banks is an interesting player. She can shoot better than was advertised. She has a great first step and is a great slasher type player...She is known as a lock-down defensive stopper...think Ashley Battle. She can handle the ball very well and did play the point in high school. She should be a better player this year who will be able to get about 15 minutes in Geno's spread the minutes approach to offense.
8. Heather Buck I don't expect to see much improvement out of Heather...she is a 5th year senior and she should pretty much match her last years stats of 8.8 minutes, 2.3 points and 3 rebounds. But, in a game against Baylor she is another big body (6'4") to use against Griner.
9. Laura Engeln has not to date been able to move herself higher up the rotation. She basically lanquishes at the far end of the bench. She only average 6.6 minutes a game...that may go up as a result of UConn blowing teams out early this year. However, I don't expect her to be much of an impact player.
10. Breanna Stewart will be an impact player right out of the shoot. She is a legit 6'4" with a 70 inch wing span. She is athletic blocking shots, she has an array of offensive moves she can shoot from three, she can pull up and shoot the 7 to 12 foot jumper, she can put in on the floor. She is a prolific rebounder and yes she can dunk the ball. She will be a contributor on this team and she will help UConn's defense but, she is still only a freshman so I won't crown her MVP or player of the year yet. I expect that she will probably average close to 20 minutes per game, 10 points a game and 6-8 rebounds per game.
11. Morgan Tuck she is an Ashja Jones type of player, she is really good around the basket, she can score, good footwork, good rebounder and a fantastic defender. Did I mention that she won the MacDonald's All American three point shooting contest? I suspect that Morgan will be the surprise of the class. She was rated 6 but, I believe she may just be the best #6 in a long time.
12. Moriah Jefferson finally UConn has a true point guard. She is a freshman so she will struggle at times but she will bring an element UConn needs a guard who can push the ball, who can see the entire floor, who can pass exceptionally well and who can shoot the three. I think with Moriah on the floor she will give UConn a different look that teams will have to adjust to.
Now to last year's game...too bad it was played so early in the season because by the end of the season both UConn and Baylor were two different teams. We didn't get to see UConn vs Baylor in the post season and that would have told us more than the early game of 2011-2012. But, what did come out of that game was the following. UConn played a horrible game...I'm sure Baylor had a lot to do with that. Baylor didn't play that great either but they played 5 points better than UConn. Bria was the bright spot for UConn with KML providing some support but really that was about it. Did it have something to do with playing Baylor at Baylor early in the season while Baylor was still smarting from getting eliminated the year before by Texas A & M in the semis of the NCAAs...probably but bottom line was UConn showed very little of what it would need to knock off a Experienced team like Baylor who has the best player in WCBB in Griner.
How did Baylor do in that early game. Well it wasn't stellar but Griner (25, 9 and 9) and Sims (23 points and 4 steals) put on a show. UConn had no answer for either one of them. Pope, Madden, Condrey and Williams were basically no shows but both played better later in the season especially D. Williams. Hayden was solid with 6 points, 2 rebound, 3 assists. But, by and large it was basically a two woman show.
If Baylor doesn't get production from other sources besides Griner and Sims I don't think they can expect to hold UConn to only 61 points this year. I don't think they can win the game without points and big plays coming from other players. I don't expect Williams or Madden to be no shows either but then again I expect that Dolson, Faris and KML will play better. I think for UConn to beat Baylor they have to stop Sims. Griner is going to score her 25-30 points and 10 rebounds. Stop Sims and you cut the head of the snake. Now, that may be easier said than done. Sims may just be the best point guard in the country.
So, at the end of the day who wins this game? I think early in the season Baylor wins...If they meet in the post season I think there is a distinct possibility that UConn could play the role of the spoiler.
 
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I'd be very interested in seeing Kelly Faris used as a defensive stopper on Odyssey Sims. With all the talent on the floor this year, we don't need her bodying up in the post. I wonder how well the other Baylor players will execute the offense/feed the post if Odyssey is neutralized...?
 

VAMike23

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cferraro04
I am in the camp that believes that this year's championship is Baylor's to lose. That being said I think that UConn has the best chance to upend last years champions. The addition of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson after losing Tiffany Hayes and Michala Johnson indicated that the Huskies got richer. Also UConn was fairly young the past two years...they are a year older and should play better and more mature. But, to be fair so is Baylor. They will also be better but which team will improve the most? I think the short answer is UConn. The new players fill areas that UConn needed to be filled.
Let's take a walk down UConn's roster.
UConn
1. KML will be better and we should see that vaulted sophomore jump. She is a lights out shooter who really didn't have a great game against Baylor early last season.
2. Hartley was incredible in that early game against Baylor...she had 25 points (10-17 and 5-8). She has been playing out of position at the 1. She is a natural 2 and there is a good chance she will be seeing more time at her natural position this year. She did not have a great year from three last year but came on stronger in that category later in the season.
3. Doty was still recovering from her ACL injury and consequently saw limited minutes. I think she still sees limited minutes this season...not because of her injury rather because Geno will be challenged to spread the minutes around. She will see some minutes at the point giving Hartley a chance to play the 2. She was an absolute no-show in the Baylor - UConn game.
4. Dolson was supposed to show us the sophomore jump but she showed us the sophomore slump. She did come on the last the third of the season. She ended up with 10.8 points and 6.0 rebounds for the season. Not exactly what Geno had in mind when he said that she was the second best center in WCBB. She did play better later in the season but she was mostly ineffective against Baylor scoring 6 points and grabbing only 4 rebounds.
5. Faris is a good all around player who usually fills the stat sheet in almost every category...she had an absolutely horrible shooting night against Baylor going 1-9 and 1-7 from three. but she did have 8 assists and 6 rebounds. She plays a lot of minutes for UConn but I expect she will be giving some of the minutes (4-5) to the newbies who will need to get their minutes from someplace.
6. Stokes has a tremendous upside and she definitely showed it late in the season. She by her own admission wasn't doing what needed to be done and somewhere towards the end of the season and into the post season her minutes went up and her scoring and rebounding went up as well. I fully expect to see Kiah demonstrate the sophomore jump and I look to her to up her 13.4 minutes up to about 17 minutes and to be a more productive force in the middle for UConn.
7. Banks is an interesting player. She can shoot better than was advertised. She has a great first step and is a great slasher type player...She is known as a lock-down defensive stopper...think Ashley Battle. She can handle the ball very well and did play the point in high school. She should be a better player this year who will be able to get about 15 minutes in Geno's spread the minutes approach to offense.
8. Heather Buck I don't expect to see much improvement out of Heather...she is a 5th year senior and she should pretty much match her last years stats of 8.8 minutes, 2.3 points and 3 rebounds. But, in a game against Baylor she is another big body (6'4") to use against Griner.
9. Laura Engeln has not to date been able to move herself higher up the rotation. She basically lanquishes at the far end of the bench. She only average 6.6 minutes a game...that may go up as a result of UConn blowing teams out early this year. However, I don't expect her to be much of an impact player.
10. Breanna Stewart will be an impact player right out of the shoot. She is a legit 6'4" with a 70 inch wing span. She is athletic blocking shots, she has an array of offensive moves she can shoot from three, she can pull up and shoot the 7 to 12 foot jumper, she can put in on the floor. She is a prolific rebounder and yes she can dunk the ball. She will be a contributor on this team and she will help UConn's defense but, she is still only a freshman so I won't crown her MVP or player of the year yet. I expect that she will probably average close to 20 minutes per game, 10 points a game and 6-8 rebounds per game.
11. Morgan Tuck she is an Ashja Jones type of player, she is really good around the basket, she can score, good footwork, good rebounder and a fantastic defender. Did I mention that she won the MacDonald's All American three point shooting contest? I suspect that Morgan will be the surprise of the class. She was rated 6 but, I believe she may just be the best #6 in a long time.
12. Moriah Jefferson finally UConn has a true point guard. She is a freshman so she will struggle at times but she will bring an element UConn needs a guard who can push the ball, who can see the entire floor, who can pass exceptionally well and who can shoot the three. I think with Moriah on the floor she will give UConn a different look that teams will have to adjust to.
Now to last year's game...too bad it was played so early in the season because by the end of the season both UConn and Baylor were two different teams. We didn't get to see UConn vs Baylor in the post season and that would have told us more than the early game of 2011-2012. But, what did come out of that game was the following. UConn played a horrible game...I'm sure Baylor had a lot to do with that. Baylor didn't play that great either but they played 5 points better than UConn. Bria was the bright spot for UConn with KML providing some support but really that was about it. Did it have something to do with playing Baylor at Baylor early in the season while Baylor was still smarting from getting eliminated the year before by Texas A & M in the semis of the NCAAs...probably but bottom line was UConn showed very little of what it would need to knock off a Experienced team like Baylor who has the best player in WCBB in Griner.
How did Baylor do in that early game. Well it wasn't stellar but Griner (25, 9 and 9) and Sims (23 points and 4 steals) put on a show. UConn had no answer for either one of them. Pope, Madden, Condrey and Williams were basically no shows but both played better later in the season especially D. Williams. Hayden was solid with 6 points, 2 rebound, 3 assists. But, by and large it was basically a two woman show.
If Baylor doesn't get production from other sources besides Griner and Sims I don't think they can expect to hold UConn to only 61 points this year. I don't think they can win the game without points and big plays coming from other players. I don't expect Williams or Madden to be no shows either but then again I expect that Dolson, Faris and KML will play better. I think for UConn to beat Baylor they have to stop Sims. Griner is going to score her 25-30 points and 10 rebounds. Stop Sims and you cut the head of the snake. Now, that may be easier said than done. Sims may just be the best point guard in the country.
So, at the end of the day who wins this game? I think early in the season Baylor wins...If they meet in the post season I think there is a distinct possibility that UConn could play the role of the spoiler.

I think you correctly identify one of the many indirect benefits of having Breanna on the floor, particularly against teams like ND and Baylor: Kelly Faris will not have to see nearly as much duty trying to front or keep a body on the Baylor bigs.

Not that Kelly's #1 defensive assignment is BG but we all know Kelly spent a lot of time among the trees last year. She is still very capable down there, but IMO the Huskies get the most bang for their defensive buck when KF defends the opponents' scoring guards and wings. It takes more experience to guard the perimeter effectively, with the switches, decisions (over?under?), communication, etc. Kelly has that in spades, and she is also just a 1st-team AA caliber defender from the p.o.v. of raw talent and desire. She won't be able to stop Sims, but there is perhaps no one better in WCBB to slow Sims down. And this way she is likely to have even more opportunities to rebound the ball in space, which is one of her strongest suits.

MoJeff is a wildcard to me, because PG is the hardest position to come in and make an impact as a frosh. Certainly she will see extended minutes. By later in the year we will know more. At worst, she will provide Geno with solid depth to give Bria a little more chance to rest, or slide over to the 2. Bria showed that she can go the full 40 when needed, but 30 would be easier on her and would keep her fresher for the dog days of February as well as the big dance. At best, MoJeff will be able to give good minutes defending Sims, giving Geno extra flexibility to move Kelly around if someone else on their team gets a hot hand which is good because Baylor is loaded. On offense, MoJeff could be great or she could be a work-in-progress this year. It's really hard to tell before we see her in at least one reasonably competitive game this fall.

Banks: No one wants to see her to step up more than I do. But to this point she has been anything but a "lock-down defensive stopper" in her time at UCONN. It's really frustrating because her physical abilities are in the stratosphere. We'll see what she does over the summer...... the potential upside here, again, is someone who can come in and log quality defensive minutes against Sims. It could happen, but we haven't seen it yet....In fairness, she has been pretty good defending in space, trapping and pressing etc. Her hands are everywhere and she doubles the ball *really* fast. Her issues are more with plain ol' on-ball defense in the half court man to man.

Stewart will be invaluable [shocker]. Having such an athletic forward will allow us to keep Stef (or Heather) on the low side while Stewart helps from the top or the side, as often as possible. No one is a defensive game changer at BG's level, but with freaky athleticism and a 73 inch wingspan, BG will not have seen this kind of defender from the help side before.

Yes, per Breanna (LINK) her wingspan is now 73 inches, essentially the same as Griner's. :D BG's wingspan is 73.5" and of course she is four inches taller than Breanna.


The Key Defensive Strategy against Baylor may be.........

........the consistent use of a 3/4 or full-court press.

Payoff: much shorter effective shot clock for Baylor, as we might be able to bleed it down around 15-18 secs or so before they get across half court and then get in a position to really start running their offense, looking inside for Griner. Obviously we could also generate turnovers and transition buckets.

Risk: if Sims & Co. are consistently able to break the press and get the ball to the middle of the floor, Griner will be in the forecourt with much greater space to move, which is death. And Sims is good - very , very good. For this reason I think a 3/4 press might be a better call than the full-court because it's less risky, still drains clock, and can recover more quickly. We absolutely have the bodies this year to do it for extended minutes, so we will see if it's something Geno wants to try against even the best teams. This would be unusual, as Geno always says you can't press the best teams (guards are too good) but against Baylor, the payoff of draining clock might be too tempting, given that we have one of the most talented, deep and athletic teams in UCONN's history this year. If the press functions well against Duke, A&M, Maryland earlier in the season, expect to see it against Baylor in February. That will determine whether he uses it in the tournament should we see them again in April....
 

UConnCat

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Stanford defended Baylor exceptionally well in the FF last season. The strategy wasn't complicated, it was to double Griner off of either Madden or Condrey but not off of Sims or Hayden. Baylor shot in the 30%s if I recall correctly. The problems for Stanford were a) fouls, which was surprising because Stanford is not a very physical team and typically doesn't foul; and b) no one other than Nneka was able score consistently against Baylor. Part of the lack of shot-making was Baylor's good defense of course, but Stanford also missed a lot of open shots and was something like 2/17 on 3-pointers.

Defeating Baylor next season will be very difficult for obvious reasons, but UConn will have the best chance of any team to do so because of its size, depth and shot-makers.
 

msf22b

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I am not a statistics maven, prefer to philosophize.

But sneaking a peak at the U-19 team results from 2011 indicates that Breanna comes to UConn not as your average, even hugely gifted freshman (expected to play as such) but as a seasoned, International, player of stature who has competed with and against some of the stars of her generation...with Liz Williams, Massengale and Burdick as well as all the current UConn stars and Tuck.


As a 16-year-old she led that team in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots, perhaps showed only a slight relative weakness in offensive rebounds. I think she, by herself evens the equation with Baylor and with the two other hugely gifted additions gives UConn an edge against any opponent. And remember, she's still 17 for goodness sake!
 
U

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Nice stuff CF. Good read and got the WCBB juices flowing. The game is in Feburary, no? I think that is definitely to UCONN's advantage as they will have time to acclimate the terrific trio. Sure Baylor has Prince coming in, but she's nowhere near the impact player that Bree, Mo, or Morgan are...
 
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Thanks for the post cferraro. I have been waiting for the BY to opine on this rivalry.

IMO it is UCONN and Baylor, then every other team. When do we get Baylor this year, early or late. Is it in Feb, or did I dream that.

Remember 4 years ago when Griner was a freshman? Kim Mulkey made the statement, "If you are going to get us, you better get us this year" Well, we did get 'em...with Tina wearing Griner down. I am telling Coach Mulkey and everyone else, "If you are going to beat UCONN,you better get us this
year

I think Baylor probably has the edge, but with Stewie in the lineup if we meet them in the Final 4 anything can happen !
 

PacoSwede

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I smell a lack of confidence in this thread, and a bit of intimidation. Hope the team has no hint of these feelings.

I've never felt any UConn team was invincible. And I'm not trying to fill the gap in Tony's absence, but I fully EXPECT this team will handle Baylor as many times as are needed. If they play lousy, or there's injury issues or foul trouble, only THEN would I be at all pessimistic. But those circumstances could lead to a loss against nearly anybody they play; Baylor would have a higher likelihood of taking advantage, but Baylor can have those same problems and that flips the equation.

Why they play to game, right? But geez, I am confidant the Huskies will take care of the Bears, and a blowout is possible.
 

doggydaddy

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I smell a lack of confidence in this thread, and a bit of intimidation. Hope the team has no hint of these feelings.

I've never felt any UConn team was invincible. And I'm not trying to fill the gap in Tony's absence, but I fully EXPECT this team will handle Baylor as many times as are needed. If they play lousy, or there's injury issues or foul trouble, only THEN would I be at all pessimistic. But those circumstances could lead to a loss against nearly anybody they play; Baylor would have a higher likelihood of taking advantage, but Baylor can have those same problems and that flips the equation.

Why they play to game, right? But geez, I am confidant the Huskies will take care of the Bears, and a blowout is possible.

I think you are my corner when I say that Baylor was unbeaten, but not unbeatable.

I REALLY like this team's chances to beat Baylor at home and on a neutral court. I think that was true last year too.

I can't wait to put together a game analysis. But my early instincts on this says that Griner is the only advantage. I fully expect Hartley to play every bit as good as Sims and Lewis and Stewart are better than anyone else that Baylor can put on the floor. Add in Faris, Stokes, and the other two freshman, Tuck and Jefferson and the talent is squarely on UConn's side.

Madden, Williams and Hayden are very good, as is Prince, but we will see this year how UConn has a talent advantage.
 
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... I think Baylor probably has the edge, but with Stewie in the lineup if we meet them in the Final 4 anything can happen !
That's it!

With her 7'3" wingspan, the Beach Volleyball partner Kelly Schumacher was looking for is none other than Breanna Stewart. As a duo they'll be known as Schuie and Stewie!
 

alexrgct

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I think the sum total of talent favors UConn, but basketball is a sport typically won by the team with the top player. This is less true in a single elimination format, but even so it's why basketball is the team sport where an individual's legacy is most measured by team success.

Honestly, for all the hype Griner has gotten, if she finishes college with only one championship, there will be some sentiment that she left something on the table. She doesn't have the pressure on her she'd have if Baylor had failed to win it all last year, but it's still immense.

Geno will have an immense challenge of how to use his depth and exploit matchups if he wants to win next year. With all due respect to the field, this is essentially a two-game season coming up. As I've posted previously, I think UConn wins in Hartford in February and loses in N'awlins. But I'd love to be wrong.
 
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It didn't really sound like she liked the nickname Stewie...she kinda rolled her eyes and said Stephanie Dolson gave it to her...just a thought...
 

VAMike23

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BTW

I screwed up on Breanna's wingspan, and Griner's....... :oops:

I said 73" and 73.5" but it's really 7'1" for Breanna (85") and 7'3.5" for Griner (87.5")

BStewart wingspan LINK

Griner wingspan LINK
 

Kibitzer

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I can add nothing to the series of superb analyses presented by the OP and others in this thread, but I will add one thought.

Inevitably and irresistably we are drawn to offensive stats when doing these things. It's easy to measure points and percentages.

Available defensive stats like steals and blocks -- even rebounds -- don't begin to measure either individual or team defense. Over time, individual and team defensive skills are somewhat measurable but when projecting several months ahead, it's unrealistic to try to accurately project how well player A will shut down player B, let alone team defense.

Having said all that, I expect that the combination of tenacity and teamwork by UConn "D" will give nightmares to opposing coaches and teams, including Mulkey and Baylor.

In sum, I expect UConn to beat Baylor and other top teams because they will have a really tough time scoring against our Huskies.
 

Icebear

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BTW

I screwed up on Breanna's wingspan, and Griner's....... :oops:

I said 73" and 73.5" but it's really 7'1" for Breanna (85") and 7'3.5" for Griner (87.5")

BStewart wingspan LINK

Griner wingspan LINK
Breanna more than makes that up with her jumping advantage over BG.
 
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One can say the championship Baylor's to lose. I say it is ours to take. Like someone said: we may lose the first one but we'll win the big one easily.
 

VAMike23

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Breanna more than makes that up with her jumping advantage over BG.

I have generally thought that to be true also, but recently I read online that BG's vertical was measured at 29.5" her freshman year, which is very high. Maya's is about 28", IIRC. In watching a video the other day of BG having some fun in an impromptu dunking contest, her vertical was more apparent. She was really getting up.

I'm not sure if the 29.5" true vertical leap is correct, but she does have a better vertical than I had given her credit for. I believe Breanna is faster and quicker, but their verticals are probably not too far apart. (I haven't yet been able to find any data on Breanna's vertical in my Google searches.)

Of course the true vertical is not the only relevant measure. The 'running-start' vertical, whatever it's called, is at least a bit higher for everyone and in some cases a lot higher, depending on the how well the player's lower body can transfer the additional energy into lift. Maya is a good example of this.
 
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From the tapes of the two ladies dunking, it looks like Griner has an advantage, but not a great one. Probably less than six inches stationary and in the air. I'd wager that when we play Baylor, both women will be in for a little eye opening. The fact that Coach Auriemma has coached Griner, and that he has enough time and the right athletes to design a good scheme for Baylor...means that Breanna will have an advantage.

And I mean that as no slight to Kim Mulkey...

What Breanna has demonstrated with Team USA is not only how physically gifted and court savvy she is, but how eminently coach-able. I think we are in for a real treat, because I don't think Baylor has demonstrated the level of teamwork - offensively or defensively - that the Huskies have the potential to bring to this matchup.
 

msf22b

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I have a fantasy...Stewie blocking a Griner jumper.
Listen folks, all the pressure's on them, they have to be quaking at the prospect of facing this group.
 

VAMike23

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I have a fantasy...Stewie blocking a Griner jumper.
Listen folks, all the pressure's on them, they have to be quaking at the prospect of facing this group.

It could happen, from the side or from behind... just not likely from the front.
 

Icebear

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I have generally thought that to be true also, but recently I read online that BG's vertical was measured at 29.5" her freshman year, which is very high. Maya's is about 28", IIRC. In watching a video the other day of BG having some fun in an impromptu dunking contest, her vertical was more apparent. She was really getting up.

I'm not sure if the 29.5" true vertical leap is correct, but she does have a better vertical than I had given her credit for. I believe Breanna is faster and quicker, but their verticals are probably not too far apart. (I haven't yet been able to find any data on Breanna's vertical in my Google searches.)

Of course the true vertical is not the only relevant measure. The 'running-start' vertical, whatever it's called, is at least a bit higher for everyone and in some cases a lot higher, depending on the how well the player's lower body can transfer the additional energy into lift. Maya is a good example of this.


If it is true I have never once seen her use that leaping ability in any of the dozen or so times I have seen her play.
 
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