cferraro04
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cferraro04
I am in the camp that believes that this year's championship is Baylor's to lose. That being said I think that UConn has the best chance to upend last years champions. The addition of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson after losing Tiffany Hayes and Michala Johnson indicated that the Huskies got richer. Also UConn was fairly young the past two years...they are a year older and should play better and more mature. But, to be fair so is Baylor. They will also be better but which team will improve the most? I think the short answer is UConn. The new players fill areas that UConn needed to be filled.
Let's take a walk down UConn's roster.
UConn
1. KML will be better and we should see that vaulted sophomore jump. She is a lights out shooter who really didn't have a great game against Baylor early last season.
2. Hartley was incredible in that early game against Baylor...she had 25 points (10-17 and 5-8). She has been playing out of position at the 1. She is a natural 2 and there is a good chance she will be seeing more time at her natural position this year. She did not have a great year from three last year but came on stronger in that category later in the season.
3. Doty was still recovering from her ACL injury and consequently saw limited minutes. I think she still sees limited minutes this season...not because of her injury rather because Geno will be challenged to spread the minutes around. She will see some minutes at the point giving Hartley a chance to play the 2. She was an absolute no-show in the Baylor - UConn game.
4. Dolson was supposed to show us the sophomore jump but she showed us the sophomore slump. She did come on the last the third of the season. She ended up with 10.8 points and 6.0 rebounds for the season. Not exactly what Geno had in mind when he said that she was the second best center in WCBB. She did play better later in the season but she was mostly ineffective against Baylor scoring 6 points and grabbing only 4 rebounds.
5. Faris is a good all around player who usually fills the stat sheet in almost every category...she had an absolutely horrible shooting night against Baylor going 1-9 and 1-7 from three. but she did have 8 assists and 6 rebounds. She plays a lot of minutes for UConn but I expect she will be giving some of the minutes (4-5) to the newbies who will need to get their minutes from someplace.
6. Stokes has a tremendous upside and she definitely showed it late in the season. She by her own admission wasn't doing what needed to be done and somewhere towards the end of the season and into the post season her minutes went up and her scoring and rebounding went up as well. I fully expect to see Kiah demonstrate the sophomore jump and I look to her to up her 13.4 minutes up to about 17 minutes and to be a more productive force in the middle for UConn.
7. Banks is an interesting player. She can shoot better than was advertised. She has a great first step and is a great slasher type player...She is known as a lock-down defensive stopper...think Ashley Battle. She can handle the ball very well and did play the point in high school. She should be a better player this year who will be able to get about 15 minutes in Geno's spread the minutes approach to offense.
8. Heather Buck I don't expect to see much improvement out of Heather...she is a 5th year senior and she should pretty much match her last years stats of 8.8 minutes, 2.3 points and 3 rebounds. But, in a game against Baylor she is another big body (6'4") to use against Griner.
9. Laura Engeln has not to date been able to move herself higher up the rotation. She basically lanquishes at the far end of the bench. She only average 6.6 minutes a game...that may go up as a result of UConn blowing teams out early this year. However, I don't expect her to be much of an impact player.
10. Breanna Stewart will be an impact player right out of the shoot. She is a legit 6'4" with a 70 inch wing span. She is athletic blocking shots, she has an array of offensive moves she can shoot from three, she can pull up and shoot the 7 to 12 foot jumper, she can put in on the floor. She is a prolific rebounder and yes she can dunk the ball. She will be a contributor on this team and she will help UConn's defense but, she is still only a freshman so I won't crown her MVP or player of the year yet. I expect that she will probably average close to 20 minutes per game, 10 points a game and 6-8 rebounds per game.
11. Morgan Tuck she is an Ashja Jones type of player, she is really good around the basket, she can score, good footwork, good rebounder and a fantastic defender. Did I mention that she won the MacDonald's All American three point shooting contest? I suspect that Morgan will be the surprise of the class. She was rated 6 but, I believe she may just be the best #6 in a long time.
12. Moriah Jefferson finally UConn has a true point guard. She is a freshman so she will struggle at times but she will bring an element UConn needs a guard who can push the ball, who can see the entire floor, who can pass exceptionally well and who can shoot the three. I think with Moriah on the floor she will give UConn a different look that teams will have to adjust to.
Now to last year's game...too bad it was played so early in the season because by the end of the season both UConn and Baylor were two different teams. We didn't get to see UConn vs Baylor in the post season and that would have told us more than the early game of 2011-2012. But, what did come out of that game was the following. UConn played a horrible game...I'm sure Baylor had a lot to do with that. Baylor didn't play that great either but they played 5 points better than UConn. Bria was the bright spot for UConn with KML providing some support but really that was about it. Did it have something to do with playing Baylor at Baylor early in the season while Baylor was still smarting from getting eliminated the year before by Texas A & M in the semis of the NCAAs...probably but bottom line was UConn showed very little of what it would need to knock off a Experienced team like Baylor who has the best player in WCBB in Griner.
How did Baylor do in that early game. Well it wasn't stellar but Griner (25, 9 and 9) and Sims (23 points and 4 steals) put on a show. UConn had no answer for either one of them. Pope, Madden, Condrey and Williams were basically no shows but both played better later in the season especially D. Williams. Hayden was solid with 6 points, 2 rebound, 3 assists. But, by and large it was basically a two woman show.
If Baylor doesn't get production from other sources besides Griner and Sims I don't think they can expect to hold UConn to only 61 points this year. I don't think they can win the game without points and big plays coming from other players. I don't expect Williams or Madden to be no shows either but then again I expect that Dolson, Faris and KML will play better. I think for UConn to beat Baylor they have to stop Sims. Griner is going to score her 25-30 points and 10 rebounds. Stop Sims and you cut the head of the snake. Now, that may be easier said than done. Sims may just be the best point guard in the country.
So, at the end of the day who wins this game? I think early in the season Baylor wins...If they meet in the post season I think there is a distinct possibility that UConn could play the role of the spoiler.