Third and final top-16 reveal

[Plebe]

Tonight will be the committee's third and final top-16 reveal.

Below are the top 16 teams from the second reveal of 18 days ago, along with their results since then:

1. UConn (beat SC, Cinc, UCF, WiSt, Lou, Temple) [++]
2. Mississippi St (beat MO, SC, FL, KY, Van, TAMU) [++]
3. Louisville (beat VA, Syr, Clem; lost to UConn; beat BC, NC) [x]
4. Notre Dame (beat NC, Duke, GaTech, VA, BC) [+]
5. Oregon (beat Cal; lost to Stan; beat WA, Wazzu, USC) [x]
6. Baylor (beat TxTech, OK, TCU, OKSt, Kansas) [++]
7. South Carolina (lost to UConn, Miss St; beat AL, FL, GA, KY) [x]
8. Florida St (lost to NCSt; beat Pitt, VA, Mia, Clem) [–]
9. Texas (beat TCU, WV, KSU, TxTech, OKSt) [+]
10. UCLA (beat USC x 2, AZ, AZSt; lost to OSU) [x]
11. Tennessee (beat TAMU, Van, AR, GA; lost to AL, MO) [–]
12. Georgia (lost to LSU; beat MS, Van; lost to TN, SC; beat MS) [–]
13. Maryland (beat Rut, NE, MISt, Rut; lost to Purdue, MN) [––]
14. Missouri (lost to Miss St; beat FL, KY, AR, Aub, TN) [–]
15. Michigan (lost to Pur, Rut; beat NW; lost to MichSt, MN) [––]
16. Texas A&M (lost to TN; beat Aub, MS; lost to LSU; beat FL; lost to Miss St) [–]

Again, the notation in brackets is my attempt to summarize whether the team has helped or hurt its resume since the last reveal:
"+" means the team helped its resume ("++" means significantly so)
"x" means the team's resume, on balance, is about the same
"–" means the team hurt its resume ("––" means significantly so)

My predictions for tonight's reveal:

1. UConn
2. Miss St
3. Notre Dame (+1)
4. Louisville (–1)
5. Baylor (+1)
6. Oregon (–1)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (+1)
9. Florida St (–1)
10. UCLA
11. Tennessee
12. Georgia
13. Stanford (previously not included)
14. Missouri
15. Texas A&M (+1)
    
16. Ohio State (previously not included)
    Dropped out: Maryland, Michigan
    Also in the running: Maryland, NC State, Iowa, Oregon State, LSU, DePaul

Essentially, there's been a noticeable bifurcation between the top 10 and everyone else. Spots 11 through 16 are very difficult to determine. All of these teams have suffered unexpected losses, and other than Stanford there aren't any clear candidates deserving to take their place.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I agree! I don't see any of the No.1's not changing yet.

 

[Centerstream]

Have past pre tournament reveals been in line with the tournament selections when there's been conference tournament losses? Mainly because the #3 or #4 seed is going to have a loss in their conference tournament...

 

[Plebe]

Have past pre tournament reveals been in line with the tournament selections when there's been conference tournament losses? Mainly because the #3 or #4 seed is going to have a loss in their conference tournament...

Not sure exactly what you mean. A loss in the conference tournament is just one more data point among many. A lot would depend on who they lose to. A loss to a top 10 team isn't the same as a loss to a team outside the top 100.

 

[LoTrader]

Tonight will be the committee's third and final top-16 reveal.

Below are the top 16 teams from the second reveal of 18 days ago, along with their results since then:

1. UConn (beat SC, Cinc, UCF, WiSt, Lou, Temple) [++]
2. Mississippi St (beat MO, SC, FL, KY, Van, TAMU) [++]
3. Louisville (beat VA, Syr, Clem; lost to UConn; beat BC, NC) [x]
4. Notre Dame (beat NC, Duke, GaTech, VA, BC) [+]
5. Oregon (beat Cal; lost to Stan; beat WA, Wazzu, USC) [x]
6. Baylor (beat TxTech, OK, TCU, OKSt, Kansas) [++]
7. South Carolina (lost to UConn, Miss St; beat AL, FL, GA, KY) [x]
8. Florida St (lost to NCSt; beat Pitt, VA, Mia, Clem) [–]
9. Texas (beat TCU, WV, KSU, TxTech, OKSt) [+]
10. UCLA (beat USC x 2, AZ, AZSt; lost to OSU) [x]
11. Tennessee (beat TAMU, Van, AR, GA; lost to AL, MO) [–]
12. Georgia (lost to LSU; beat MS, Van; lost to TN, SC; beat MS) [–]
13. Maryland (beat Rut, NE, MISt, Rut; lost to Purdue, MN) [––]
14. Missouri (lost to Miss St; beat FL, KY, AR, Aub, TN) [–]
15. Michigan (lost to Pur, Rut; beat NW; lost to MichSt, MN) [––]
16. Texas A&M (lost to TN; beat Aub, MS; lost to LSU; beat FL; lost to Miss St) [–]

Again, the notation in brackets is my attempt to summarize whether the team has helped or hurt its resume since the last reveal:
"+" means the team helped its resume ("++" means significantly so)
"x" means the team's resume, on balance, is about the same
"–" means the team hurt its resume ("––" means significantly so)

My predictions for tonight's reveal:

1. UConn
2. Miss St
3. Notre Dame (+1)
4. Louisville (–1)
5. Baylor (+1)
6. Oregon (–1)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (+1)
9. Florida St (–1)
10. UCLA
11. Tennessee
12. Georgia
13. Stanford (previously not included)
14. Missouri
15. Texas A&M (+1)
    
16. Ohio State (previously not included)
    Dropped out: Maryland, Michigan
    Also in the running: Maryland, NC State, Iowa, Oregon State, LSU, DePaul

Essentially, there's been a noticeable bifurcation between the top 10 and everyone else. Spots 11 through 16 are very difficult to determine. All of these teams have suffered unexpected losses, and other than Stanford there aren't any clear candidates deserving to take their place.

Thanks Plebe.

 

[Centerstream]

Not sure exactly what you mean. A loss in the conference tournament is just one more data point among many. A lot would depend on who they lose to. A loss to a top 10 team isn't the same as a loss to a team outside the top 100.

I guess when either the #3 or #4 seeded team from the proposed reveal above loses in their conference tournament (even though it's possible that both could lose), would that eliminate them from being one of the #1 seeds OR is the final in season reveal usually a preview of the selection committee's bracketology (for the top 16)?

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't see ND moving ahead of Louisville given their head to head matchup.

And I think Mizzou jumps over Georgia, and possibly Tenn.

I'll go with:

1. UConn
2. Miss St
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor (+1)
6. Oregon (-1)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (+1)
9. Florida St (-1)
10. UCLA
11. Mizzou (+3)
12. Tennessee (-1)
13. Stanford (**)
14. Georgia (-2)
15. Ohio St (**)
16. NC St (**)

Out: Michigan, Maryland, Tx A&M

 

[RockyMTblue2]

AP Poll has Tenn peeled down to 15 as well it should. I suspect there is some more peeling coming to them later this week.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Committee has Baylor as the #2 Seed in the Lexington Region. That means Miss St (#2 #1 Seed would play Baylor ( Coming out of the #3 Region) if both made it to the F4.

Baylor was the Fifth Ranked team. I suspect they move up to a #1 Seed to replace Louisville or Notre Dame, which ever team loses in the ACC tournament. Now if Baylor loses tonight, they probably can't get the #1 seed.

 

[ASweet3781]

Definitely looks like the Albany 2 seed will almost certainly be either South Carolina, Texas, or Florida State. Maybe UCLA if they get hot? Oregon will almost certainly go to Spokane. If they stumble down the stretch perhaps they fall to a 3 there. Baring a total collapse Louisville, ND, and Baylor seem pretty locked into the 3, 4, and 5 spots which means they almost certainly avoid Albany.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

IF Louisville/ND make it to finals of ACC i don’t think losing to one another will knock them off the one line.

I honestly think Baylor will stay off 1 line simply due to weak out of conference and no quality wins outside BIG12.

Also not a fan of all the rematches. Louisville in same bracket as Ohio State and UCONN in same bracket as South Carolina and Stanford

Should be an exciting tourney.

 

[Centerstream]

I still think that if Baylor goes undefeated in the Big12, they deserve to be the #3 overall seed. If ND or Louisville wins the ACC Tournament, they would be the #4 overall seed, with the assumption that they don't lose a regular season game.
But BUs OOC schedule could be a problem.
Caveat: I am not a BU or Big12 fan, UConn only!!!

 

[Plebe]

I don't see ND moving ahead of Louisville given their head to head matchup.

And I think Mizzou jumps over Georgia, and possibly Tenn.

I'll go with:

1. UConn
2. Miss St
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor (+1)
6. Oregon (-1)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (+1)
9. Florida St (-1)
10. UCLA
11. Mizzou (+3)
12. Tennessee (-1)
13. Stanford (**)
14. Georgia (-2)
15. Ohio St (**)
16. NC St (**)

Out: Michigan, Maryland, Tx A&M

Man you really nailed it. Louisville ahead of Notre Dame, Missouri ahead of Tennessee.

1. UConn
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oregon
7. South Carolina
8. Texas
9. Florida State
10. UCLA
11. Missouri
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State
14. Maryland
15. Georgia
16. Stanford

 

[Wbbfan1]

Presuming ND & Louisville win out until they face each other in the ACC tournament finals, the best Baylor can do is to be the #4 Ranked #1 Seed. Their OOC Schedule compared to both Louisville and Notre Dame will not get them to the #3 Ranked #1 Seed. The ACC probably gets more bids then the B12, so the strength of conference favors the ACC over B12. That also hurts Baylor jumping over Notre Dame or Louisville. It is possible Baylor doesn't make it to the #1 Seed even though they are one of the Top 3 teams in the country.

I still think that if Baylor goes undefeated in the Big12, they deserve to be the #3 overall seed. If ND or Louisville wins the ACC Tournament, they would be the #4 overall seed, with the assumption that they don't lose a regular season game.
But BUs OOC schedule could be a problem.
Caveat: I am not a BU or Big12 fan, UConn only!!!

 

[JoePgh]

Presuming ND & Louisville win out until they face each other in the ACC tournament finals, the best Baylor can do is to be the #4 Ranked #1 Seed. Their OOC Schedule compared to both Louisville and Notre Dame will not get them to the #3 Ranked #1 Seed. The ACC probably gets more bids then the B12, so the strength of conference favors the ACC over B12. That also hurts Baylor jumping over Notre Dame or Louisville. It is possible Baylor doesn't make it to the #1 Seed even though they are one of the Top 3 teams in the country.

It would not be good news if Baylor is the 4th #1 seed, since that would set them up for a clash with UConn in the National Semifinals. If UConn gets past that, they would probably face Mississippi State in the Finals. That would be about the toughest possible route to a national championship for UConn.

From the standpoint of UConn's interests, it would be better for Baylor and Mississippi State to face each other in the Elite Eight round, although I don't think that will happen if only because exactly that happened last year in the Elite Eight.

The most sensible seeding would be for Baylor to be #3 overall (where it belongs) so that UConn would face either them or Mississippi State in the Finals, but not both in the same Final Four.

 

[triaddukefan]

It would not be good news if Baylor is the 4th #1 seed, since that would set them up for a clash with UConn in the National Semifinals. If UConn gets past that, they would probably face Mississippi State in the Finals. That would be about the toughest possible route to a national championship for UConn.

From the standpoint of UConn's interests, it would be better for Baylor and Mississippi State to face each other in the Elite Eight round, although I don't think that will happen if only because exactly that happened last year in the Elite Eight.

The most sensible seeding would be for Baylor to be #3 overall (where it belongs) so that UConn would face either them or Mississippi State in the Finals, but not both in the same Final Four.

There is no way on God's green earth that Baylor is a #3 seed over the ACC champ. No way... not sensible.

 

[nwhoopfan]

They dropped one, but that's still too many SEC teams in the top 16 as far as I'm concerned. Hopefully at least one more drops out between now and the real bracket. Tennessee is in free fall currently, how long can their good early season results continue to carry them?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Though there can be many twists and turns, I’m having a feeling of deja vu from 2014, I think it was: Two undefeated teams with an interesting recent history heading for a matchup in the national championship game. I think ND and Baylor have the potential to spoil that, but I’m not sure anyone else does.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Did anyone catch the graphic they put up on Baylor/ND with ???? and who was who??

Very telling.

 

[Nuyoika]

Baylor's OOC SOS is 164.... 164. They do not deserve a 1 period... Did you guys just see that graphic comparing them the Notre Dame? Baylor is trying to were a Versace dress to the post season selection committee interview and woo their way past what the committee has already said is now a priority. They made that a statement last year with Maryland. The problem is Notre Dame is wearing the same dress but with a better resume!!! Who get's the job? C'mon now.

Is Baylor good... Yes. However, their body of work doesn't match that of those ahead of them. Maybe if they had played more than 4 good teams all year they would have a case. As it stands they screwed themselves. If the committee does give them a 1 then they flat out lied about what matters and the example they made of Maryland was pointless. Last year the committee said if your OOC SOS is in the triple digits you will not be rewarded.

 

[Plebe]

Baylor's OOC SOS is 164.... 164. They do not deserve a 1 period... Did you guys just see that graphic comparing them the Notre Dame? Baylor is trying to were a Versace dress to the post season selection committee interview and woo their way past what the committee has already said is now a priority. They made that a statement last year with Maryland. The problem is Notre Dame is wearing the same dress but with a better resume!!! Who get's the job? C'mon now.

Is Baylor good... Yes. However, their body of work doesn't match that of those ahead of them. Maybe if they had played more than 4 good teams all year they would have a case. As it stands they screwed themselves. If the committee does give them a 1 then they flat out lied about what matters and the example they made of Maryland was pointless. Last year the committee said if your OOC SOS is in the triple digits you will not be rewarded.

I'm not sure where they're getting the 164 figure from. Warren Nolan's site lists their OOC SOS as #69.

 

[DefenseBB]

There is no way on God's green earth that Baylor is a #3 seed over the ACC champ. No way... not sensible.

Unless it’s someone other than ND or Louisville, then they move to #3.

 

[Nuyoika]

I'm not sure where they're getting the 164 figure from. Warren Nolan's site lists their OOC SOS as #69.

I don't know who Warren Nolan is but that is what was been reported by ESPN in the very first reveal: Baylor's No. 3 seed is biggest shocker in NCAA's reveal considering the reveal came directly from the committee I would say it is accurate.

 

[Bear11]

Baylor now has 8 top 25 wins and 10 top 50 wins according to Sagarin. Not too shabby. An undefeated Big 12 champ is a 1 seed, especially over a 3 loss ACC runner up.

 

[Plebe]

I don't know who Warren Nolan is but that is what was been reported by ESPN in the very first reveal: Baylor's No. 3 seed is biggest shocker in NCAA's reveal considering the reveal came directly from the committee I would say it is accurate.

Ah, well, that figure continues to evolve over the course of the season as Baylor's OOC opponents (and their opponents) continue to play.