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The distance you’re going for is critical. The odds of converting a 4th and 2 are high enough that if you want to go for it there, fine. The odds of converting a 4th and 6th are probably roughly one in three. And getting the first down doesn’t guaranty you’re getting 7 either.
Go ahead and bring out the FG unit then, what are the odds that we make a 45 yarder in that wind? Probably about the same as making a first down right?