- Joined
 - Aug 26, 2011
 
- Messages
 - 28,932
 
- Reaction Score
 - 42,719
 
The distance you’re going for is critical. The odds of converting a 4th and 2 are high enough that if you want to go for it there, fine. The odds of converting a 4th and 6th are probably roughly one in three. And getting the first down doesn’t guaranty you’re getting 7 either.
Go ahead and bring out the FG unit then, what are the odds that we make a 45 yarder in that wind? Probably about the same as making a first down right?