The Official 2023 New England Patriots Thread

[Husky25]

It'll be interesting how the Bills and Dolphins address their cap and age issues. Both are $50+ Million over the cap and in the top seven of oldest average age.

 

[Deepster]

It'll be interesting how the Bills and Dolphins address their cap and age issues. Both are $50+ Million over the cap and in the top seven of oldest average age.

Okay.

Right now here is where the skills sit in the division.

QB is 4th of the 4 teams
RB1 is 4th
WR 1 is 4th
WR2 is 3/4th
TE (assuming it’s Henry) is 3rd

No drafted rookie is going to offer a first year impact to change any of those.

 

[Husky25]

Okay.

Right now here is where the skills sit in the division.

QB is 4th of the 4 teams
RB1 is 4th
WR 1 is 4th
WR2 is 3/4th
TE (assuming it’s Henry) is 3rd

No drafted rookie is going to offer a first year impact to change any of those.

And it manifested with a 4-13 2023 record.

The league year ends next month and everyone is 0-0 on the field. The only things those rankings mean on a go forward basis is that the Patriots can shed bodies and add to their already abundant cap number without losing much comparable talent. Barring trades, the Patriots have the 3rd pick in every round of the draft and will have a greater ability than any of their division rivals to sign free agents.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Okay.

Right now here is where the skills sit in the division.

QB is 4th of the 4 teams
RB1 is 4th
WR 1 is 4th
WR2 is 3/4th
TE (assuming it’s Henry) is 3rd

No drafted rookie is going to offer a first year impact to change any of those.

Stephenson is better than anybody Buffalo has at RB. There's an argument he's better than Mostert too. Mostert hadn't shown much until last year and I think mostly exploited defenses designed to stop the passing game. Hall is best in the division.

QB? Who are you counting? Rodgers? He didn't play. Both the Jets and Pats will have a new QB this year, so we don't know how that will shake out.

 

[Waquoit]

So far, the Pats sound like they're being run by a bunch of frat boys with dad's credit card. Playoffs are a pipe dream. I don't think you can count on the defense being better next year. I think the upheaval makes the status quo, the ceiling.

 

[Deepster]

Stephenson is better than anybody Buffalo has at RB. There's an argument he's better than Mostert too. Mostert hadn't shown much until last year and I think mostly exploited defenses designed to stop the passing game. Hall is best in the division.

QB? Who are you counting? Rodgers? He didn't play. Both the Jets and Pats will have a new QB this year, so we don't know how that will shake out.

Cook and Mostert are both better than Stephenson. You know Mostert had 18 touchdowns this year, right?

Yes. Rodgers is better than anyone you’ll have at QB all season long. Name a possible QB that will have a better season?

 

[Husky25]

Cook and Mostert are both better than Stephenson. You know Mostert had 18 touchdowns this year, right?

Yes. Rodgers is better than anyone you’ll have at QB all season long. Name a possible QB that will have a better season?

I don't know what to expect from Rodgers. He's 40 years old and coming off a significant leg injury.

Warming tosses on the sidelines is worlds different than evading Nick Bosa coming off the edge.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Cook and Mostert are both better than Stephenson. You know Mostert had 18 touchdowns this year, right?

Yes. Rodgers is better than anyone you’ll have at QB all season long. Name a possible QB that will have a better season?

Mostert had his first 1000 yard season this year. He’s been in the league for ages. He mostly sucked in SF. He just benefited from everyone focused on stopping the pass game. He's not that good. Archane is probably better. Wouldn’t surprise me if they cut Mostert for the cap savings.

Stephenson had a 1000 yard season last year in his first as a starter while facing a run stacked box every game and with a bad OL. Cook had a good 2nd season but Stephenson had higher yards per carry in his 2nd season and again, with the worst passing game in the league. Not with teams trying to stop Allen and Diggs.

I have some doubt that Rodgers (a) will play a game for the Jets and (b) will have anything left. You’re not getting Rodgers in his prime.

 

[Deepster]

Rodgers at 25% is infinitely better than Drake Maye or Ryan Tannehill.

 

[HeGotGame]

It'll be interesting how the Bills and Dolphins address their cap and age issues. Both are $50+ Million over the cap and in the top seven of oldest average age.

Cap is projected to go up over $25 mill next year, that wipes out half the deficit. Cap goes up significantly every year, it's a waste of energy to hope other teams get worse based on cap situations. Teams prepare based on these increases.

The dolphins are in the bottom half of the league in age of roster and the Pats have the worst roster in the league and it is one of the oldest.

 

[Husky25]

Cap is projected to go up over $25 mill next year, that wipes out half the deficit. Cap goes up significantly every year, it's a waste of energy to hope other teams get worse based on cap situations. Teams prepare based on these increases.

The dolphins are in the bottom half of the league in age of roster and the Pats have the worst roster in the league and it is one of the oldest.

The 2024 Cap is indeed projected to go up about $25 mil next year, but that does not wipe out half of either the Bills' or the Dolphins' deficit. Both Spotrac and Overthecap have them both around $51 million over next year's projected cap. It's not a matter of hoping other teams get worse based on the Cap. Each team has to deal with the cap implications when their time comes.

Whatever one feels about the Patriots roster, they are probably in one of the better positions to start the 2024 league year (Behind Washington - 6 picks inside the 1st 103/>$80 Million cap room/no Daniel Snyder - and Chicago - 2 top 10 1st rounders/>$70 Million.). They have the 3rd pick in each round, and the 4th most projected cap room. They have the ability to make cuts and restructure contracts for more cap room, without losing much comparative "talent" that earned them a 4-13 record. Then signing (hopefully) quality free agents. My concern with the Patriots is the lack of experience up and down the coaching staff, particularly play calling on both sides of the ball.

No doubt that teams prepare signings based on future cap increases, which is probably why Schoen felt comfortable setting the market with a mediocre (at best) QB, before restructuring the deal to free up $6M mere days before a game was played. Without that space, the Giants probably wouldn't have been able to sign a 280 lb. real estate agent to play Left Guard. I've given Schoen credit for initially structuring the Jones contract the way he did, but with the benefit of hindsight, it seems more emotional now than at first glance.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Cap is projected to go up over $25 mill next year, that wipes out half the deficit. Cap goes up significantly every year, it's a waste of energy to hope other teams get worse based on cap situations. Teams prepare based on these increases.

The dolphins are in the bottom half of the league in age of roster and the Pats have the worst roster in the league and it is one of the oldest.

@Husky25 covered the cap. It does matter. Miami has some problems. I expect them to cut Mostert and cut or trade others. And that is before extending Tua which they will need to do this year. Buffalo has issues but at least Allen is already factored in. One of my considerations with Miami is that they were a mirage anyway. Great offense, beat all the bad teams, lost every game but one against winning teams. That team is about to get worse. Buffalo is a different story. They've shown some staying power in cutting expensive veterans and bringing in new guys. The vastly overpaid Knox though, and his dead cap hit is terrible. It's 19M in 25-26 and he's probably already not the starter anymore. Von Miller's deal is also pretty bad for a guy who is 34 and has lost more than a step.

As for Age, the numbers are from week 1, by the end of the season Miami was older than New England. The difference from oldest to youngest still isn't significant. The Patriots just cut Adrian Phillips and Lawrence Guy. Trent Brown is gone. They'll have one of the younger teams in the league this year.

 

[HeGotGame]

@Husky25 covered the cap. It does matter. Miami has some problems. I expect them to cut Mostert and cut or trade others. And that is before extending Tua which they will need to do this year. Buffalo has issues but at least Allen is already factored in. One of my considerations with Miami is that they were a mirage anyway. Great offense, beat all the bad teams, lost every game but one against winning teams. That team is about to get worse. Buffalo is a different story. They've shown some staying power in cutting expensive veterans and bringing in new guys. The vastly overpaid Knox though, and his dead cap hit is terrible. It's 19M in 25-26 and he's probably already not the starter anymore. Von Miller's deal is also pretty bad for a guy who is 34 and has lost more than a step.

As for Age, the numbers are from week 1, by the end of the season Miami was older than New England. The difference from oldest to youngest still isn't significant. The Patriots just cut Adrian Phillips and Lawrence Guy. Trent Brown is gone. They'll have one of the younger teams in the league this year.

Over the cap projected cap is $240 mill not the projected $250 mill

At the end of the season Miamis average age was still less than NEs.

The rest is conjecture

 

[Husky25]

@Husky25 covered the cap. It does matter. Miami has some problems. I expect them to cut Mostert and cut or trade others. And that is before extending Tua which they will need to do this year. Buffalo has issues but at least Allen is already factored in. One of my considerations with Miami is that they were a mirage anyway. Great offense, beat all the bad teams, lost every game but one against winning teams. That team is about to get worse. Buffalo is a different story. They've shown some staying power in cutting expensive veterans and bringing in new guys. The vastly overpaid Knox though, and his dead cap hit is terrible. It's 19M in 25-26 and he's probably already not the starter anymore. Von Miller's deal is also pretty bad for a guy who is 34 and has lost more than a step.

As for Age, the numbers are from week 1, by the end of the season Miami was older than New England. The difference from oldest to youngest still isn't significant. The Patriots just cut Adrian Phillips and Lawrence Guy. Trent Brown is gone. They'll have one of the younger teams in the league this year.

The final Cap number will be made public next week, and while it could be $250 Million, NFL.com projected $240M back in December and Pro Football Talk is projecting $243 Million, according to NBCSports just yesterday.

So the figures projected by OTC, PFT, and the NFL itself is 100% in the ballpark.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Over the cap projected cap is $240 mill not the projected $250 mill

At the end of the season Miamis average age was still less than NEs.

The rest is conjecture

Since the end of the year, New England lost most of its older players. What is your point? Guy, Phillips, Brownall gone. Slater and Ferentz just retired. Their age right now is very low and will probably get lower.

Everything we talk about here is conjecture. What I said about the cap hit of guys comes from Spotrac, go look it up. Knox and Miller have horrible contracts. Mostert has a low dead cap number and isn't as good as Archane, so yes, I am projecting that he is a possible cap casualty. But maybe not. His cap hit is only 3.3.

Fans can believe the absolute nonsense that the cap isn't real and you can kick the can down the road indefinitely. It's not true. Every year lots of very talented players hit the market as cap casualties because teams have to replace better players with cheaper ones. Hard decisions have to be made.

 

[HeGotGame]

Since the end of the year, New England lost most of its older players. What is your point? Guy, Phillips, Brownall gone. Slater and Ferentz just retired. Their age right now is very low and will probably get lower.

Everything we talk about here is conjecture. What I said about the cap hit of guys comes from Spotrac, go look it up. Knox and Miller have horrible contracts. Mostert has a low dead cap number and isn't as good as Archane, so yes, I am projecting that he is a possible cap casualty. But maybe not. His cap hit is only 3.3.

Fans can believe the absolute nonsense that the cap isn't real and you can kick the can down the road indefinitely. It's not true. Every year lots of very talented players hit the market as cap casualties because teams have to replace better players with cheaper ones. Hard decisions have to be made.

Yes teams make cap decisions but you trying to convince yourself that the Pats are good position bc of the Bills and Dolphins caps is laughable.

 

[Husky25]

The Patriots are in good position because they are $70 million under the projected cap, and high draft picks.

That the Bills and Dolphins are projected to be $50M over the cap is merely an interesting development.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yes teams make cap decisions but you trying to convince yourself that the Pats are good position bc of the Bills and Dolphins caps is laughable.

The Patriots are rebuilding. I'm not expecting much this year. Better, yes. Miami was wildly overrated last year. They are about to get worse as they have to pay Tua and they already in trouble with the cap because they thought they had a SuperBowl team and made a bunch of dumb moves.

The Bills are still pretty solid. Key players signed long term. But they have a lot of guys on this list.

AFC cut candidates: Nick Chubb, Joey Bosa among potential cap casualties heading into free agency

 

[Deepster]

The Patriots are in good position because they are $70 million under the projected cap, and high draft picks.

And you need to spend the money wisely on the right free agents (something you haven't done well in a long time) and draft the right players (another thing you haven't done really well).

And even if you did both those things? You're throwing them on top of a green rookie QB or a retread like Tannehill with tons of subpar talent at all offensive production positions.

Welcome to what it's been like in this division for 2 decades. On the bottom looking up hopefully every spring.

 

[HeGotGame]

The 2024 Cap is indeed projected to go up about $25 mil next year, but that does not wipe out half of either the Bills' or the Dolphins' deficit. Both Spotrac and Overthecap have them both around $51 million over next year's projected cap. It's not a matter of hoping other teams get worse based on the Cap. Each team has to deal with the cap implications when their time comes.

Whatever one feels about the Patriots roster, they are probably in one of the better positions to start the 2024 league year (Behind Washington - 6 picks inside the 1st 103/>$80 Million cap room/no Daniel Snyder - and Chicago - 2 top 10 1st rounders/>$70 Million.). They have the 3rd pick in each round, and the 4th most projected cap room. They have the ability to make cuts and restructure contracts for more cap room, without losing much comparative "talent" that earned them a 4-13 record. Then signing (hopefully) quality free agents. My concern with the Patriots is the lack of experience up and down the coaching staff, particularly play calling on both sides of the ball.

No doubt that teams prepare signings based on future cap increases, which is probably why Schoen felt comfortable setting the market with a mediocre (at best) QB, before restructuring the deal to free up $6M mere days before a game was played. Without that space, the Giants probably wouldn't have been able to sign a 280 lb. real estate agent to play Left Guard. I've given Schoen credit for initially structuring the Jones contract the way he did, but with the benefit of hindsight, it seems more emotional now than at first glance.

And as I said, cap has been updated and Dolphins current number is a deficit of $29 mill, about half of what Pats fans were banking on.

 

[HuskyHawk]

And as I said, cap has been updated and Dolphins current number is a deficit of $29 mill, about half of what Pats fans were banking on.

And the cost of every free agent just went up. Teams with cap space just got even more. Once the Pats cut JC Jackson they will have nearly $100m.

Combine this week. Should produce some changes and shifts in the mock drafts we see coming out. Daniels isn't going to work out. I think he may slide way down the board. McCarthy has a chance to move way up the board if he shows he can make the throws they didn't let him make at Michigan. Can pass Daniels and maybe even Drake Maye.

Still hoping New England trades back. I don't think there's anybody to take at #3 unless McCarthy wows everyone. Stupid to draft a WR at #3 given the depth in this class. Get more picks, fill more holes.

 

[Deepster]

Still hoping New England trades back. I don't think there's anybody to take at #3 unless McCarthy wows everyone. Stupid to draft a WR at #3 given the depth in this class. Get more picks, fill more holes.

So who's the starting QB week 1?

 

[HuskyHawk]

So who's the starting QB week 1?

Could be a draft pick. Could be Mayfield. Could be Russ Wilson. Could be Justin Fields. Could be Jacoby Brissett. I think that’s about it. If any of the first three names, any QB will be later. If Brissett comes in it’s probably to ensure the 1st or 2nd round rookie doesn’t have to start if not ready.

This offensive staff is now much better equipped to evaluate and develop a QB. Any of the options above could be viable. I think Wilson is a head case so that’s not my preference. Mayfield will probably stay in Tampa. Fields for a 3rd rounder could work. The new cap means playing him $26m over two years is still cheap. But they’d have to believe they can develop him.

Pending the combine, trading back and taking McCarthy is an option. Need a LT in round two if they do, barring a trade.

 

[Deepster]

Could be a draft pick. Could be Mayfield. Could be Russ Wilson. Could be Justin Fields. Could be Jacoby Brissett. I think that’s about it. If any of the first three names, any QB will be later. If Brissett comes in it’s probably to ensure the 1st or 2nd round rookie doesn’t have to start if not ready.

This offensive staff is now much better equipped to evaluate and develop a QB. Any of the options above could be viable. I think Wilson is a head case so that’s not my preference. Mayfield will probably stay in Tampa. Fields for a 3rd rounder could work. The new cap means playing him $26m over two years is still cheap. But they’d have to believe they can develop him.

Pending the combine, trading back and taking McCarthy is an option. Need a LT in round two if they do, barring a trade.

I’d be surprised if it were Fields. There will be a number of suitors and the Pats aren’t typically high rollers in those situations.

I would not feel good about Wilson. I don’t think he’ll start for a team this fall and his warts are exposed.

But. Just assume it’s either Wilson or Brissett. You still feel good they can grab a wild card?

 

[HuskyHawk]

I’d be surprised if it were Fields. There will be a number of suitors and the Pats aren’t typically high rollers in those situations.

I would not feel good about Wilson. I don’t think he’ll start for a team this fall and his warts are exposed.

But. Just assume it’s either Wilson or Brissett. You still feel good they can grab a wild card?

I don't "feel good" they can grab a wild card no matter who the QB is. It's unlikely. This year there were what 8-9 teams fighting for those spots, I think the mostly likely thing is that they land outside the playoffs in that group of middle of the pack teams. But it's football. The most likely thing was that a mediocre team that lost it's starting QB wasn't going to win the super bowl in the 2001 season. It doesn't take much, a punt return or pick six, to change things. The CB/Punt returner who won the Jets game two years ago missed the whole season last year, but is back. Look at the Browns, who grabbed Flacco and pushed into the playoffs. Flacco is also definitely an option since our OC was his OC last year, but like Brissett, that would be with a rookie as well.

I'd be more surprised by Wilson than Fields. No way they want someone who doesn't seem to be team first. The market for fields seems to be Atlanta, Pittsburgh and NE. That's it. I think they want a rookie if they can get the right one. But nobody knows what they are thinking.