The Demographic Cliff and UConn

[Chuck]

Society benefits from your investment and you have a lower standard of living. If my children aren’t someone who I think can high perform at college, I am. It going to pay. Go to CC and get that associates in advanced manufacturing for free and join the aerospace industry.

I'll just say that we can make arguments why we should make our kids go to community college instead of a four year school, and maybe we'll eventually get there, but that's a big ask. My daughter has another couple years of high school. She doesn't have the same grades or academic ability as my son, but she works relatively hard and wants the college experience. She'd be looking at UConn, Rutgers (in state), Penn State and other similar schools. I'd have a hard time telling her she can't go there, but instead has to go to our local community college. Especially when all of her friends and peers would be going off to four year schools. Her desire and self-esteem shouldn't trump common sense, but I don't think I could do that to my daughter.

I don't want to crap on anyone's alma mater or school their kid goes to, but there are schools that don't seem worth the price. If my daughter said she wanted to go to University of Hartford (picking on them because it seems like they are in trouble), I would put my foot down. So maybe that's more of what you were referring to.

 

[UConnJim]

I can't remember where I saw this, but one of the brilliant tech CEOs said STEM was the way to go 10 to 15 years ago as it was very hard to hire engineers. Now, he said the hardest person to find is the creative person. Business needs people to tell their stories, to market their products, etc. For example, look at the creative content being developed around sports teams today.

 

[noeynox]

What?

The last paragraph got a little confusing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One thing i learned in that webinar, not sure how timely it is now, but large publics down south love northeast kids and were offering significant need based and merrit based scholarships (not just to northeast kids per se) but it was an affordable option. The two schools he had in his presentation were Alabama and South Carolina.

People in the South think there is some magic formula where a school system can treat their teachers like garbage and pay them subsistence salaries and still get anything like a reasonable education out of the school. The same could be said for the colleges.

The southern schools like northeastern kids because the output from the southern public high schools is abysmal. I do not have a single friend or family member in the South that lives outside of a couple of suburbs of Atlanta that sent their kids to public schools. Even my friends in the wealthy Atlanta suburbs were 80/20 private schools. The first two years of college for these southern public school kids is basically remedial stuff they would have learned in high school in the Northeast. So these are a northeastern kids' classmates the first two years of college. These are the contacts a kid makes at an Auburn or South Carolina.

 

[superjohn]

People in the South think there is some magic formula where a school system can treat their teachers like garbage and pay them subsistence salaries and still get anything like a reasonable education out of the school. The same could be said for the colleges.

The southern schools like northeastern kids because the output from the southern public high schools is abysmal. I do not have a single friend or family member in the South that lives outside of a couple of suburbs of Atlanta that sent their kids to public schools. Even my friends in the wealthy Atlanta suburbs were 80/20 private schools. The first two years of college for these southern public school kids is basically remedial stuff they would have learned in high school in the Northeast. So these are a northeastern kids' classmates the first two years of college. These are the contacts a kid makes at an Auburn or South Carolina.

 

[zls44]

There will be some merging up, but there is still a market for a nimble, lower tier city school like Hartford that is near employers. Connecticut has 3.5 million people, so there is still a big market for education in the state.

The schools I really question, for different reasons, are ones like Mississippi State and Connecticut College. Why does a state like Mississippi need two major state schools? That is a complete waste of money for the state. I do not get the appeal of schools like Connecticut College at all. The target market for a school like Connecticut College is wealthy kids that didn't get into the Ivies, because it is horrendously expensive, and sells degrees that belong in a museum. Really, schools like Connecticut College are selling exclusivity and the appearance of special access, because unless you or your friends have rich, connected parents, there is not much you can do with a history degree from Connecticut College. The problem with this approach is that rich kids are increasingly going to the better state schools for STEM, or going to private schools that were early to the STEM game, and that trend will just continue.

@Fishy oh boy haha

 

[hank970]

Each of my three kids attended a local college for a year to get their 101s out of the way, with plans to transfer those credits to a state university. My eldest son, however, flunked out of the local college after discovering beer and girls. After a couple of meaningless jobs, he opted (with a bit of encouragement from his parents) to enlist in the army. His two years of active duty (this was pre 9/11) gave him time to see how the other half lives and to grow up. Following his stint in uniform, he went back to the local college for a year to get back in its good graces and then transferred his credits to Colorado State University. The army paid for his bachelor's and master's degrees, and he's since been doing secret stuff (he has a Q clearance) and earning big bucks for almost thirty years at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque. The moral of the story is that not every youngster has the drive and maturity, when fresh out of high school, to excel at the college level. Few even know what they'd like to major in or do with their lives. A year or two of military or other public service before pursuing a higher education can be a good thing.

A neighborhood friend when I was a teenager graduated second from the bottom of his high school class. After getting fired from his job as a grocery bagger, he joined the Marines. Four years later, he spent a year doing community-college-level work, then transferred to an out-of-state B1G school. After earning bachelor's and master's degrees in public administration, he got a job as a motorcycle officer with the Oakland, CA Police Department. While so employed, he earned another bachelor's degree in horticulture at Hayward State in the Bay Area, left the Oakland PD, and started a successful landscaping business. The Marines paid for all of his higher education.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I can't remember where I saw this, but one of the brilliant tech CEOs said STEM was the way to go 10 to 15 years ago as it was very hard to hire engineers. Now, he said the hardest person to find is the creative person. Business needs people to tell their stories, to market their products, etc. For example, look at the creative content being developed around sports teams today.

It is easier to teach a STEM person to be creative than to teach a creative person how to code.

When I was at UConn, marketing was a big fat joke of a major within the business school for people that wanted a business degree without working that hard. I should know, because that is how I got into the business school with my sophomore year grades. I switched to finance within a month. Today, marketing is a completely different degree, and I think one that will be very much in demand in the future. Marketing has become so much more complex across channels and platforms, and marketers need to know how all of those things interact. Sales and distribution has changed as much as any function in the economy the last 20 years. I think marketing is a great major for young people looking to learn a practical skill.

 

[businesslawyer]

This is not correct. There really isn't any comparable state schools that has a list price of tuition, fees, room, and meal plan for out of state students that is close to UConn's in-state costs. Could financial aid be different? Yes. Here's the comparison:

UConn: $34.4k in state
Average Big 10 school for out of state: $55k
Average SEC schools for out of state: $51k
Average ACC school for out of state: $63k. (skewed by privates, but Clemson is $58k, Virginia is $72k).

The cheapest school for out of state was FSU at ~$36k/year.

There is no point providing facts to folks that are down on Connecticut. They don't care and they won't absorb them.

 

[businesslawyer]

I doubt UConn will be affected much by the demographic cliff. I would not want to be CCSU, Fairfield, or Sacred Heart though. Smaller state and private schools are going to feel the most pain. Division 3 schools close down regularly as well so I assume we will continue to see more of that.

Fairfield has been reinventing itself to deal with this. Much less of an emphasis on liberal arts and much more of an emphasis on business school and nursing school. I don't know if this will work, but they are aware of the issues and are trying to stay ahead of the curve.

 

[SU1968]

what’s a diploma school vs bsn nurse?

Diploma school is a term used to describe a hospital-based nursing program (2 yrs, usually). A BSN is a four-year degree (Bachelor of Science in Nursing).

 

[Sea Goat]

The second tier private schools are clearly at risk. They are seriously over-priced and simply not worth it.
The northeast is crawling with these schools. One notable example is Syracuse. It is not very selective. It is in a geographic area that is declining rapidly and the weather is ranked routinely as the worst of college weather anywhere. Have you been to Syracuse? It makes Hartford look like Paris. For what it is, it costs too damn much! It has crossed the $80k threshold for cost and to yield the desired class size it admits more 60% of its applicants. In contrast, UConn's cost ranges from $33k in-state to $55k out of state and UConn admits <50% of its applicants. Long term, those numbers just don't work for Syracuse. As the demographic pressure builds, it's schools like Syracuse that are going to slide first.

I have always maintained that Syracuse doesn't want to be compared to us at the kitchen table. UConn is simply a better, less expensive school and in a better area. I believe Syracuse in no way wants UConn in its conference because, by any comparison, it looks inferior. Being in the same conference would only draw more attention to this reality. UConn, with its big cost advantage and more selective admissions, looks like the smart choice over Syracuse and people get it.

 

[hank970]

It is easier to teach a STEM person to be creative than to teach a creative person how to code.

When I was at UConn, marketing was a big fat joke of a major within the business school for people that wanted a business degree without working that hard. I should know, because that is how I got into the business school with my sophomore year grades. I switched to finance within a month. Today, marketing is a completely different degree, and I think one that will be very much in demand in the future. Marketing has become so much more complex across channels and platforms, and marketers need to know how all of those things interact. Sales and distribution has changed as much as any function in the economy the last 20 years. I think marketing is a great major for young people looking to learn a practical skill.

Creativity is the mother of adaptability, and adaptability is essential for survival. Everyone has to be creative to some extent, or they wouldn't survive. A lot of people equate creativity with some degree of mastery in the fine arts, but it's much broader than that. Further, creativity and innate or learned talents/occupations aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I'll just say that we can make arguments why we should make our kids go to community college instead of a four year school, and maybe we'll eventually get there, but that's a big ask. My daughter has another couple years of high school. She doesn't have the same grades or academic ability as my son, but she works relatively hard and wants the college experience. She'd be looking at UConn, Rutgers (in state), Penn State and other similar schools. I'd have a hard time telling her she can't go there, but instead has to go to our local community college. Especially when all of her friends and peers would be going off to four year schools. Her desire and self-esteem shouldn't trump common sense, but I don't think I could do that to my daughter.

I don't want to crap on anyone's alma mater or school their kid goes to, but there are schools that don't seem worth the price. If my daughter said she wanted to go to University of Hartford (picking on them because it seems like they are in trouble), I would put my foot down. So maybe that's more of what you were referring to.

Yes. That’s it. I am just annoyed. Daughter is 3.4+ with terrific recommendations and a junior year of a 92 average with tough courses.

Her issue is she was a Covid kid, who just had no semblance of end of 8 and 9th grade. It sucked and she was an 82 student that first year because she was just lost as a part time student.

Her junior year classes get her UConn and Penn Stats, but her frosh has been hard to get gpa there. Maybe we should try and get denied.

 

[Chuck]

Yes. That’s it. I am just annoyed. Daughter is 3.4+ with terrific recommendations and a junior year of a 92 average with tough courses.

Her issue is she was a Covid kid, who just had no semblance of end of 8 and 9th grade. It sucked and she was an 82 student that first year because she was just lost as a part time student.

Her junior year classes get her UConn and Penn Stats, but her frosh has been hard to get gpa there. Maybe we should try and get denied.

ABSOLUTELY APPLY, especially since most of the good state schools don't have additional essays. Yes, application costs add up, but not too bad. Schools definitely look at progression of grades considering the pandemic and maybe her personal statement on the common app should focus on that.

Somewhat on topic with this thread (novel for the Boneyard), some of the low acceptance rates we're seeing seem a bit misleading. Many kids are applying to 15 or more schools. That's crazy and they can only go to one of those schools. But it helps the schools show low acceptance rates. Northeastern has a crazy low acceptance rate, but the kids from our school going there are just very good (not outstanding) students. Our school saw a lot of kids get off wait lists VERY late, a bunch after May 1. When they changed schools late, it opened slots from the place they originally committed to, etc. We also saw some kids get in to great schools for second semester (including Michigan and Cornell). This way the school doesn't have to count their gpa/SAT.

 

[CCSU97]

My wife and dad are CCSU grads and dad worked there until he died. Love the school. Grew up within a mile of it.

My daughter wants to do special education, so ccsu, western and southern are live options due to that. She didn’t like western’s campus. I am trying to get her to look at ccsu, but kids want exotic and that is too close.

You make a great point. She has the grades to get into say QPec, Sacred Heart, but is education worth the cost?

I dont think so as a teaching profession. I have told her that. So teachig Is a different conversation because they have strong teaching programs.

I just wish they had more options in state. We are gonna look at URI, Loyola Md. and some schools in the south. Breaking my heart.

That's too bad, as CCSU is worth its weight in gold for a teaching degree like that. But I get that some kids won't consider CCSU because it is too close to home, or too small, too old, too uncool. It isn't for everyone. But if the STATE invested in the that university and campus as another alternative option for students, everyone would be better off.

The fact you can leave CCSU with a degree at a much lower cost than a SHU or QU, and get the same jobs as teacher, nurse, accountant, business professional, etc is a much better ROI. But like everywhere else, the costs at Central are going up, yet they have to recruit with subpar academic, support, residential, and athletic facilities. It continues the exodus of shrinking CT high school student population to outside the state.

The reasons Central has its struggles are solely due to the fact UConn has and continues to receive a outsized share of the STATE resources. The fact that no one in CGA wants to build anything that would bee seen as "competing" with UConn in even the slightest way is why there are no other options and kids will go out of state.

If Utah with the same population as CT can support a flagship university, a state university, and compete with a National private - why don't we? Utah/UConn; Utah State/Central; BYU/Yale. Many smaller states are able to support 2 major universities (Mississippi/MSU; Kansas/KSU; New Mexico/NMSU) but we can't.

Maybe the time has come to close WestConn and Eastern and just invest in Central and Southern. What is the use having 4 subpar regional universities, if we can invest and have 2 competitive comprehensive universities in 2 major cities? I'll give you a hint, the UConn administration would never support that type of legislation and would look to increase their own funding.

 

[CCSU97]

UHart is in a death spiral. Mediocre private schools would be the first to go I'd imagine

True, but the easily availability of student loans, poor financial education of borrowers, and a government willing to bail out bad decisions has led to the growth enrollment of these schools.

How does QU go from a party school for kids that couldn't get in anywhere, cost 30k+ a year, and has doubled their enrollment last 20 years? It was basically a expensive diploma mill, now it is a "highly competitive" regional private. It takes an enterprising President, leveraging athletics, and a lot of FREE MONEY.

 

[businesslawyer]

That's too bad, as CCSU is worth its weight in gold for a teaching degree like that. But I get that some kids won't consider CCSU because it is too close to home, or too small, too old, too uncool. It isn't for everyone. But if the STATE invested in the that university and campus as another alternative option for students, everyone would be better off.

The fact you can leave CCSU with a degree at a much lower cost than a SHU or QU, and get the same jobs as teacher, nurse, accountant, business professional, etc is a much better ROI. But like everywhere else, the costs at Central are going up, yet they have to recruit with subpar academic, support, residential, and athletic facilities. It continues the exodus of shrinking CT high school student population to outside the state.

The reasons Central has its struggles are solely due to the fact UConn has and continues to receive a outsized share of the STATE resources. The fact that no one in CGA wants to build anything that would bee seen as "competing" with UConn in even the slightest way is why there are no other options and kids will go out of state.

If Utah with the same population as CT can support a flagship university, a state university, and compete with a National private - why don't we? Utah/UConn; Utah State/Central; BYU/Yale. Many smaller states are able to support 2 major universities (Mississippi/MSU; Kansas/KSU; New Mexico/NMSU) but we can't.

Maybe the time has come to close WestConn and Eastern and just invest in Central and Southern. What is the use having 4 subpar regional universities, if we can invest and have 2 competitive comprehensive universities in 2 major cities? I'll give you a hint, the UConn administration would never support that type of legislation and would look to increase their own funding.

No. Absolutely not.

I'm not saying you're wrong in terms of what UConn wants, but the reason we aren't anywhere near shutting down Western and Eastern is that political beings in greater Danbury and greater Williamantic think it's important that their constituents be able to go to a state run college -- which were originally founded as teachers colleges -- without having to go far. That's why we have four state colleges, founded as teachers colleges, in this geographically small state. Because in a different day and age, where the world (and the state ) were smaller, if you didn't have them close by they weren't a resource for a given area's population, and once we have them political reality makes closing them incredibly dificult. See, e.g., as I mentioned earlier, UConn Torrington, which was literally down to a handful of students before there was the political ability to close it.

And again, I'm not telling you that UConn doesn't think what you say. I'm just telling you that isn't the driving factor.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Maybe the time has come to close WestConn and Eastern and just invest in Central and Southern. What is the use having 4 subpar regional universities, if we can invest and have 2 competitive comprehensive universities in 2 major cities? I'll give you a hint, the UConn administration would never support that type of legislation and would look to increase their own funding.

I think WestConn has been slowly expanding. It's a convenient option for people in the western part of the state. If you're in northern Fairfield or southern Litchfield counties, you're a long way from New Britain and Storrs.

 

[Viet Vet]

My brother graduated from UConn, Magna Cum Laude, in 1978. He applied to several law schools, including UConn. He was rejected by UConn Law, and was told it was because as a CT resident he did not add to the school's geographic dispersion (diversity was not yet the term of choice). So he got his law degree from another school that admitted him......................Duke Law.

 

[CCSU97]

No. Absolutely not.

I'm not saying you're wrong in terms of what UConn wants, but the reason we aren't anywhere near shutting down Western and Eastern is that political beings in greater Danbury and greater Williamantic think it's important that their constituents be able to go to a state run college -- which were originally founded as teachers colleges -- without having to go far. That's why we have four state colleges, founded as teachers colleges, in this geographically small state. Because in a different day and age, where the world (and the state ) were smaller, if you didn't have them close by they weren't a resource for a given area's population, and once we have them political reality makes closing them incredibly dificult. See, e.g., as I mentioned earlier, UConn Torrington, which was literally down to a handful of students before there was the political ability to close it.

And again, I'm not telling you that UConn doesn't think what you say. I'm just telling you that isn't the driving factor.

Absolutely, you are correct. The local politics and their State representatives are a much bigger barrier to closing those universities than UConn. Hell the CSU system itself, labor unions, and other internal factors also make this a huge no-go right now. And yet UConn doesn't have to expend any political capital to get what they ultimately want -- 4 poor sisters that are not competitive to UConn's place in the system.

Yes, you clearly understand some of the historical dynamics - but as you know that's not the whole history . Of course, the State Normal School at New Britain (1849) was established prior to the Storrs Agricultural School (1893). Yet every time the State government revised the higher education system in 1930s, 1960s, 1980s, 2000s UConn worked to strengthen their position and both local and state political interests divided the State University System. In more recent history, UConn actively lobbied and blocked CCSU for years from offering a Doctorate degree in Education. Yes, the State's original teachers colleges was blocked from offering a Doctorate and to this day is limited to just a EdD in Educational Leadership for school administrators.

UConn has gone to great lengths in both direct and indirect ways to stifle any other competative public higher education opportunities outside of their System. Gov. Malloy's worst legacy in education was the creation of the Board of Regents that combined the former Department of Higher Education, the State University System and the Connecticut Community College System; while the UCONN System remained wholly independent.

The State has already combined the entire Community College System into one entity with a single accreditation, and next up will likely be the closing of campuses. WestConn is in dire fiscal and enrollment condition and becoming an even bigger anchor on the State. We need a comprehensive reexamination of the higher education system in Connecticut, and UConn needs to be a part of it. What no one here or in Storrs wants to hear is that its about time for UConn to share in the pain. They have always had their way and received major investments in UConn 2000 and UConn 21st Century. The university is not in a growth pattern, but sustainment and they have to cut and share costs.

 

[CCSU97]

I think WestConn has been slowly expanding. It's a convenient option for people in the western part of the state. If you're in northern Fairfield or southern Litchfield counties, you're a long way from New Britain and Storrs.

No, not really.

With steep enrollment drop, Western Connecticut State University is ‘in crisis,’ consultant says

DANBURY, Conn. (WTNH) – Western Connecticut State University faces a dire future, with a steep enrollment decline and sharply higher operating costs than similar schools, a consultant has con…

www.wtnh.com

WSCU's new interim president says students and faculty center and soul of university

Manohar Singh succeeds Paul Beran as interim leader at Western Connecticut State University in Danbury. He seeks to increase enrollment and WCSU's prominence.

www.newstimes.com

The ultimate solution may end up being a consolidation to eliminate duplicate overhead and administrative costs across the 4 campuses and the BOR staff. Reorganize into the Connecticut State University with the administration and main campus in New Britain. New Haven, Willimantic, and Danbury become campus locations and academic and support offerings are limited or resourced to their market demand.

Again, this is somewhat the current path of the Community Colleges, without a "main" campus. Whereas, New Britain/Central has always been the flagship of the university system.

 

[DFW HOYA]

The second tier private schools are clearly at risk. They are seriously over-priced and simply not worth it.
The northeast is crawling with these schools. One notable example is Syracuse. It is not very selective. It is in a geographic area that is declining rapidly and the weather is ranked routinely as the worst of college weather anywhere. Have you been to Syracuse? It makes Hartford look like Paris. For what it is, it costs too damn much! It has crossed the $80k threshold for cost and to yield the desired class size it admits more 60% of its applicants. In contrast, UConn's cost ranges from $33k in-state to $55k out of state and UConn admits <50% of its applicants. Long term, those numbers just don't work for Syracuse. As the demographic pressure builds, it's schools like Syracuse that are going to slide first.

Syracuse isn't Stanford, but it's not in that perilous third tier of private schools with high admit rates to meet declining enrollment. Check the cost of attendance at...

New Haven: $68,918
Quinnipiac: $69,760
Marist: $72,880
Pace: $77,066
Franklin & Marshall: $80,811

 

[Chuck]

Franklin & Marshall is expensive and supposedly doesn’t give much, if any, merit aid, but it doesn’t belong lumped with those other schools. It has mid-30s acceptance rate. Although that seems a bit off (too low) considering it’s rep vs. other similar schools. QU is at 88%, New Haven at 94%, Pace at 88%. Marist is at a more respectable 59%.

I agree re Syracuse though. It has a star program in Newhouse and the rest of the school has a place with upper middle class kids. They also seem to give some decent merit aid. I know kids that were offered enough to make the price similar to out of state cost at a state U.

 

[JohnFSilver]

That's too bad, as CCSU is worth its weight in gold for a teaching degree like that. But I get that some kids won't consider CCSU because it is too close to home, or too small, too old, too uncool. It isn't for everyone. But if the STATE invested in the that university and campus as another alternative option for students, everyone would be better off.

The fact you can leave CCSU with a degree at a much lower cost than a SHU or QU, and get the same jobs as teacher, nurse, accountant, business professional, etc is a much better ROI. But like everywhere else, the costs at Central are going up, yet they have to recruit with subpar academic, support, residential, and athletic facilities. It continues the exodus of shrinking CT high school student population to outside the state.

The reasons Central has its struggles are solely due to the fact UConn has and continues to receive a outsized share of the STATE resources. The fact that no one in CGA wants to build anything that would bee seen as "competing" with UConn in even the slightest way is why there are no other options and kids will go out of state.

If Utah with the same population as CT can support a flagship university, a state university, and compete with a National private - why don't we? Utah/UConn; Utah State/Central; BYU/Yale. Many smaller states are able to support 2 major universities (Mississippi/MSU; Kansas/KSU; New Mexico/NMSU) but we can't.

Maybe the time has come to close WestConn and Eastern and just invest in Central and Southern. What is the use having 4 subpar regional universities, if we can invest and have 2 competitive comprehensive universities in 2 major cities? I'll give you a hint, the UConn administration would never support that type of legislation and would look to increase their own funding.

I don’t disagree on ccsu. If it wasn’t where it is, perfect college for her if she wants to be a teacher. Might end up there anyway, and I would be thrilled.