The Demographic Cliff and UConn

[nelsonmuntz]

Only remotely related to your point, but a few years back i attended one of those being able to afford college webinars with a local guy and one of the examples he had was of a recent graduate from QU who graduated with a teaching degree. 231k debt and a job making 38k a year. (He helps people like that navigate their debt as a service also.) For the life of me i could not wrap my mind around letting my kid go to a school like that for a teaching degree when you can get the same job with a degree out of CCSU. I didn't factor what @johnsilver said though, about the commuter feel. I too would want my kids to get a better experience as i was a commuter student.

Teaching is a career but also a lifestyle choice, and you have to have the overhead to match. I get that CCSU is not ideal from a student experience, but it is a good choice for kids that really want to be teachers.

Your example is an obvious bad economic decision. Through family members I know many kids who are nearing 40 and still have major student loans even though they have what most people would consider good jobs. As anyone in their 40's and 50's can tell you, overhead does not shrink until near the end of life.

 

[Punkbo]

Ask some of the 20 and 30 somethings who are sitting on $100,000 or $200,000 of debt for degrees in the humanities that have little practical application in the real world. The higher education industry markets the need of a college degree to teenagers, essentially telling children that their dreams are not possible without spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for a piece of paper. What the Higher Ed industry knows, as do many of us, is that those degrees are not remotely created equal. Rather than pivot their product to a modern society, many of the liberal arts schools in particular have doubled down on very expensive degrees in the humanities of questionable ROI.

This is "marketing cigarettes to kids" level evil. Actually, it is worse, because a kid that starts smoking can quit smoking. A kid that borrowed $200,000 for a degree in the Classics will have every aspect of their life negatively impacted. They will have a lower standard of living, often have credit problems their whole life which can impact their career, and will even have their choice of mates impacted because love is love, but taking on $200,000 of debt for a degree they didn't get is asking a lot of any future spouse. Getting some of these degrees literally ruin many people's lives.

A big difference between young people today and when Gen X got out of college in the 90's and early 2000's is that when we were in college, everyone just kind of got a degree and then got a job. Employers would be willing to train recent college graduates, and kids with a humanities degree may have a bit more trouble getting that first job, but once they got started, they would still be able to head off into their careers. But back then, there was an endless discussion in the media about how America was turning out too many lawyers.

As a result, starting in the 90's, more and more kids went into STEM majors. I can't find the data right now, but I believe colleges are turning out twice the STEM graduates today compared to 2000. I believe that other type of "trade degrees" like business are up significantly, albeit not at the same growth rate. That is a lot of kids graduating college every year with skills that are immediately applicable in the workplace. This has the effect of making the humanities degrees less valuable, because companies do not need to hire someone with a generic degree when they can hire someone with a STEM or business degree.

The state schools went hard into STEM and business in the 1990's while the prestige privates would actually have Presidents who derisively referred to those majors as "vocational degrees". Weird how most of the Ivies now offer "vocational degrees" too now. Many of the smaller liberal arts colleges will never get there. But the STEM and business degrees presented other challenges. Professors in those fields are expensive compared to a history or English professor, because a CS or engineering professor has a lot of opportunities in the private sector. As a result, a lot of universities have marketed STEM and business majors without the capacity to bring everyone through to a degree. My information is anecdotal, but Maryland is developing a reputation for doing this. Pulling a kid into a program, having the kid spend two years and $100,000 (for an out of state kid), and then telling the kid and his family that either they have to take a lesser degree or transfer, is unethical, or worse.

Kids can get any degree they want and can afford. But it is certainly not "defamatory" of me to point out that the universities have been selling degrees that have a negative or very poor ROI.

This is a great thread and certainly very timely as the cost of higher education continues to skyrocket. Educating our children is the best use of our resources as parents. Many elite universities have sold the premise that educators are in place to expand the minds of our children with liberal arts degrees and modest specialization. It certainly helps them to generate more revenue through graduate degrees. Others followed this model. It may work for the affluent, but only makes sense for most at about 1/5 of the cost of today’s education. The path taken by many lower and mid-tier private schools is a train wreck. Public schools can probably be saved by dumping more money into the system at the expense of the taxpayer.

 

[noeynox]

Teaching is a career but also a lifestyle choice, and you have to have the overhead to match. I get that CCSU is not ideal from a student experience, but it is a good choice for kids that really want to be teachers.

Your example is an obvious bad economic decision. Through family members I know many kids who are nearing 40 and still have major student loans even though they have what most people would consider good jobs. As anyone in their 40's and 50's can tell you, overhead does not shrink until near the end of life.

One thing i learned in that webinar, not sure how timely it is now, but large publics down south love northeast kids and were offering significant need based and merrit based scholarships (not just to northeast kids per se) but it was an affordable option. The two schools he had in his presentation were Alabama and South Carolina.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I am amused at the humanities debate.

People act like humanities and CLAS is worthless, but I would argue in dynamic economies they are more valuable than ever.

The issue with STEM, long term, is the re-training required. We get a huge push, then something happens in economy that that entire community has to pivot and re-train.

The theory behind value of CLAS grads is versatility, adaptability and responsiveness. They don’t teach you to do a certain skill - I am not a mechanical engineer.

But those degrees, all of them, develop and nourish critical thinking skills and abstract and are meant to be Just in Time reservoir of labor.

Any major worth its salt and market cap is taking talent that it. An build and mold. If you want a versatile employee to fit somewhere in your company , hire a humanities grad.

In a tight labor market, you want the STEM background as specific skills are what is valuable. In the current market? Companies are gonna take smart and versatile candidates who they can fit what their unique is.

Also. Next time an engineer needs to write an email that makes sense, let me know. There are not enough English majors out there.

Lol.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Teaching is a career but also a lifestyle choice, and you have to have the overhead to match. I get that CCSU is not ideal from a student experience, but it is a good choice for kids that really want to be teachers.

Your example is an obvious bad economic decision. Through family members I know many kids who are nearing 40 and still have major student loans even though they have what most people would consider good jobs. As anyone in their 40's and 50's can tell you, overhead does not shrink until near the end of life.

My wife and dad are CCSU grads and dad worked there until he died. Love the school. Grew up within a mile of it.

My daughter wants to do special education, so ccsu, western and southern are live options due to that. She didn’t like western’s campus. I am trying to get her to look at ccsu, but kids want exotic and that is too close.

You make a great point. She has the grades to get into say QPec, Sacred Heart, but is education worth the cost?

I dont think so as a teaching profession. I have told her that. So teachig Is a different conversation because they have strong teaching programs.

I just wish they had more options in state. We are gonna look at URI, Loyola Md. and some schools in the south. Breaking my heart.

 

[DFW HOYA]

And people used to get around on horseback. It is 2023, and Mississippi has two very similar universities that are basically duplicative of each other in a state that does not send a ton of kids to college.

Mississippi also has three state-funded Division I HBCU's, one of which has 1,054 full time undergraduates (Mississippi Valley State) and the other at 2,194 (Alcorn St.). Neither of these schools will be closed nor merged with Jackson State (4,276 as of spring 2021)

 

[billybud]

Costs have exceeded return for some colllege degrees..particularly in the humanities.

Our son lived at home in Tallahassee and commuted to school and did not have a large student loan hanging over his head...he now works for a boutique Florida defense contractor that designs and builds prototypes mainly for DoD....SEAL communication packs, drones, man portable radar, etc. His ROI (actually ours) has been good.

His work friend who has a doctorate in theoretical math, boarded at a much more expensive out of state university and has an enormous loan debt.

 

[billybud]

Florida had a scheme...prepaid tuition...when our son was 4 we began paying a monthly bill for eight years that guaranteed 4 years of tuition paid at whatever the future price...

The Bright Futures State Scholarship program also would pay tuition costs for those with good GPA's.

 

[noeynox]

Florida had a scheme...prepaid tuition...when our son was 4 we began paying a monthly bill for eight years that guaranteed 4 years of tuition paid at whatever the future price...

The Bright Futures State Scholarship program also would pay tuition costs for those with good GPA's.

My friend's daughter was salutatorian down there and went to UF for almost no cost. Had she chosen to go USF which was closer to home she would have pocketed money i believe.

 

[billybud]

Kids did end up pocketing money..

 

[Spsone07]

My significant other daughter is a pretty bright girl at one of the best public school district in the state. Although our salaries are great, we can’t really afford to pay for her tuition in the current climate. We are recommending that she attends community college for 2-3 years, she would then make a decision of where to attend college when she matures and have a better idea what she wants to do.

College is about making bonds and friendships, but I made stronger friends by playing in my local softball beer league.

The problem I see is that we encourage young adults to make a really important decision of attending expensive colleges to kids that aren’t fully responsible. When I was 18, I was happier to leave my family and Connecticut to go to any college that was 2-3 times more expensive than UConn. If I worked and paid my own way for 2–3 years, I probably would’ve attended a cheaper college to eventually end up in my current career.

 

[JohnFSilver]

My significant other daughter is a pretty bright girl at one of the best public school district in the state. Although our salaries are great, we can’t really afford to pay for her tuition in the current climate. We are recommending that she attends community college for 2-3 years, she would then make a decision of where to attend college when she matures and have a better idea what she wants to do.

College is about making bonds and friendships, but I made stronger friends by playing in my local softball beer league.

The problem I see is that we encourage young adults to make a really important decision of attending expensive colleges to kids that aren’t fully responsible. When I was 18, I was happier to leave my family and Connecticut to go to any college that was 2-3 times more expensive than UConn. If I worked and paid my own way for 2–3 years, I probably would’ve attended a cheaper college to eventually end up in my current career.

Problem is the cost for the education isn’t worth it. Room, board food and fees. What are we doing here saddling students with debt and making them financially uncompetitive with rest of world?

We are asking too much if the burden being placed on students and families. I get we are in a populist and anti-education political environment, but last I checked plumbers needed customers.

Who pays for plumbers? Corporate lackeys like who are over educated like me.

I think network is key, as is having a common bond with your students in your area of study. Tbh, I just don’t understand why someone has to pay $100K to get a job to pay higher taxes.

Society benefits from your investment and you have a lower standard of living. If my children aren’t someone who I think can high perform at college, I am. It going to pay. Go to CC and get that associates in advanced manufacturing for free and join the aerospace industry.

 

[Punkbo]

My significant other daughter is a pretty bright girl at one of the best public school district in the state. Although our salaries are great, we can’t really afford to pay for her tuition in the current climate. We are recommending that she attends community college for 2-3 years, she would then make a decision of where to attend college when she matures and have a better idea what she wants to do.

College is about making bonds and friendships, but I made stronger friends by playing in my local softball beer league.

The problem I see is that we encourage young adults to make a really important decision of attending expensive colleges to kids that aren’t fully responsible. When I was 18, I was happier to leave my family and Connecticut to go to any college that was 2-3 times more expensive than UConn. If I worked and paid my own way for 2–3 years, I probably would’ve attended a cheaper college to eventually end up in my current career.

I may be speaking from an ivory tower, but I think you’re underestimating the value of relationships which can be developed at elite universities. I realize that not everyone can afford it, but these relationships can be very rewarding.

 

[superjohn]

Problem is the cost for the education isn’t worth it. Room, board food and fees. What are we doing here saddling students with debt and making them financially uncompetitive with rest of world?

We are asking too much if the burden being placed on students and families. I get we are in a populist and anti-education political environment, but last I checked plumbers needed customers.

Who pays for plumbers? Corporate lackeys like who are over educated like me.

I think network is key, as is having a common bond with your students in your area of study. Tbh, I just don’t understand why someone has to pay $100K to get a job to pay higher taxes.

Society benefits from your investment and you have a lower standard of living. If my children aren’t someone who I think can high perform at college, I am. It going to pay. Go to CC and get that associates in advanced manufacturing for free and join the aerospace industry.

What?

 

[billybud]

Tuition at UConn is about triple that at FSU and U of F....over four years, that adds up....of course sudent aid ameliorates some of that differential.

 

[Chuck]

Society benefits from your investment and you have a lower standard of living. If my children aren’t someone who I think can high perform at college, I am. It going to pay. Go to CC and get that associates in advanced manufacturing for free and join the aerospace industry.

I'll just say that we can make arguments why we should make our kids go to community college instead of a four year school, and maybe we'll eventually get there, but that's a big ask. My daughter has another couple years of high school. She doesn't have the same grades or academic ability as my son, but she works relatively hard and wants the college experience. She'd be looking at UConn, Rutgers (in state), Penn State and other similar schools. I'd have a hard time telling her she can't go there, but instead has to go to our local community college. Especially when all of her friends and peers would be going off to four year schools. Her desire and self-esteem shouldn't trump common sense, but I don't think I could do that to my daughter.

I don't want to crap on anyone's alma mater or school their kid goes to, but there are schools that don't seem worth the price. If my daughter said she wanted to go to University of Hartford (picking on them because it seems like they are in trouble), I would put my foot down. So maybe that's more of what you were referring to.

 

[UConnJim]

I can't remember where I saw this, but one of the brilliant tech CEOs said STEM was the way to go 10 to 15 years ago as it was very hard to hire engineers. Now, he said the hardest person to find is the creative person. Business needs people to tell their stories, to market their products, etc. For example, look at the creative content being developed around sports teams today.

 

[noeynox]

What?

The last paragraph got a little confusing.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One thing i learned in that webinar, not sure how timely it is now, but large publics down south love northeast kids and were offering significant need based and merrit based scholarships (not just to northeast kids per se) but it was an affordable option. The two schools he had in his presentation were Alabama and South Carolina.

People in the South think there is some magic formula where a school system can treat their teachers like garbage and pay them subsistence salaries and still get anything like a reasonable education out of the school. The same could be said for the colleges.

The southern schools like northeastern kids because the output from the southern public high schools is abysmal. I do not have a single friend or family member in the South that lives outside of a couple of suburbs of Atlanta that sent their kids to public schools. Even my friends in the wealthy Atlanta suburbs were 80/20 private schools. The first two years of college for these southern public school kids is basically remedial stuff they would have learned in high school in the Northeast. So these are a northeastern kids' classmates the first two years of college. These are the contacts a kid makes at an Auburn or South Carolina.

 

[superjohn]

People in the South think there is some magic formula where a school system can treat their teachers like garbage and pay them subsistence salaries and still get anything like a reasonable education out of the school. The same could be said for the colleges.

The southern schools like northeastern kids because the output from the southern public high schools is abysmal. I do not have a single friend or family member in the South that lives outside of a couple of suburbs of Atlanta that sent their kids to public schools. Even my friends in the wealthy Atlanta suburbs were 80/20 private schools. The first two years of college for these southern public school kids is basically remedial stuff they would have learned in high school in the Northeast. So these are a northeastern kids' classmates the first two years of college. These are the contacts a kid makes at an Auburn or South Carolina.

 

[zls44]

There will be some merging up, but there is still a market for a nimble, lower tier city school like Hartford that is near employers. Connecticut has 3.5 million people, so there is still a big market for education in the state.

The schools I really question, for different reasons, are ones like Mississippi State and Connecticut College. Why does a state like Mississippi need two major state schools? That is a complete waste of money for the state. I do not get the appeal of schools like Connecticut College at all. The target market for a school like Connecticut College is wealthy kids that didn't get into the Ivies, because it is horrendously expensive, and sells degrees that belong in a museum. Really, schools like Connecticut College are selling exclusivity and the appearance of special access, because unless you or your friends have rich, connected parents, there is not much you can do with a history degree from Connecticut College. The problem with this approach is that rich kids are increasingly going to the better state schools for STEM, or going to private schools that were early to the STEM game, and that trend will just continue.

@Fishy oh boy haha

 

[hank970]

Each of my three kids attended a local college for a year to get their 101s out of the way, with plans to transfer those credits to a state university. My eldest son, however, flunked out of the local college after discovering beer and girls. After a couple of meaningless jobs, he opted (with a bit of encouragement from his parents) to enlist in the army. His two years of active duty (this was pre 9/11) gave him time to see how the other half lives and to grow up. Following his stint in uniform, he went back to the local college for a year to get back in its good graces and then transferred his credits to Colorado State University. The army paid for his bachelor's and master's degrees, and he's since been doing secret stuff (he has a Q clearance) and earning big bucks for almost thirty years at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque. The moral of the story is that not every youngster has the drive and maturity, when fresh out of high school, to excel at the college level. Few even know what they'd like to major in or do with their lives. A year or two of military or other public service before pursuing a higher education can be a good thing.

A neighborhood friend when I was a teenager graduated second from the bottom of his high school class. After getting fired from his job as a grocery bagger, he joined the Marines. Four years later, he spent a year doing community-college-level work, then transferred to an out-of-state B1G school. After earning bachelor's and master's degrees in public administration, he got a job as a motorcycle officer with the Oakland, CA Police Department. While so employed, he earned another bachelor's degree in horticulture at Hayward State in the Bay Area, left the Oakland PD, and started a successful landscaping business. The Marines paid for all of his higher education.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I can't remember where I saw this, but one of the brilliant tech CEOs said STEM was the way to go 10 to 15 years ago as it was very hard to hire engineers. Now, he said the hardest person to find is the creative person. Business needs people to tell their stories, to market their products, etc. For example, look at the creative content being developed around sports teams today.

It is easier to teach a STEM person to be creative than to teach a creative person how to code.

When I was at UConn, marketing was a big fat joke of a major within the business school for people that wanted a business degree without working that hard. I should know, because that is how I got into the business school with my sophomore year grades. I switched to finance within a month. Today, marketing is a completely different degree, and I think one that will be very much in demand in the future. Marketing has become so much more complex across channels and platforms, and marketers need to know how all of those things interact. Sales and distribution has changed as much as any function in the economy the last 20 years. I think marketing is a great major for young people looking to learn a practical skill.

 

[businesslawyer]

This is not correct. There really isn't any comparable state schools that has a list price of tuition, fees, room, and meal plan for out of state students that is close to UConn's in-state costs. Could financial aid be different? Yes. Here's the comparison:

UConn: $34.4k in state
Average Big 10 school for out of state: $55k
Average SEC schools for out of state: $51k
Average ACC school for out of state: $63k. (skewed by privates, but Clemson is $58k, Virginia is $72k).

The cheapest school for out of state was FSU at ~$36k/year.

There is no point providing facts to folks that are down on Connecticut. They don't care and they won't absorb them.

 

[businesslawyer]

I doubt UConn will be affected much by the demographic cliff. I would not want to be CCSU, Fairfield, or Sacred Heart though. Smaller state and private schools are going to feel the most pain. Division 3 schools close down regularly as well so I assume we will continue to see more of that.

Fairfield has been reinventing itself to deal with this. Much less of an emphasis on liberal arts and much more of an emphasis on business school and nursing school. I don't know if this will work, but they are aware of the issues and are trying to stay ahead of the curve.

 

[SU1968]

what’s a diploma school vs bsn nurse?

Diploma school is a term used to describe a hospital-based nursing program (2 yrs, usually). A BSN is a four-year degree (Bachelor of Science in Nursing).

 

[Sea Goat]

The second tier private schools are clearly at risk. They are seriously over-priced and simply not worth it.
The northeast is crawling with these schools. One notable example is Syracuse. It is not very selective. It is in a geographic area that is declining rapidly and the weather is ranked routinely as the worst of college weather anywhere. Have you been to Syracuse? It makes Hartford look like Paris. For what it is, it costs too damn much! It has crossed the $80k threshold for cost and to yield the desired class size it admits more 60% of its applicants. In contrast, UConn's cost ranges from $33k in-state to $55k out of state and UConn admits <50% of its applicants. Long term, those numbers just don't work for Syracuse. As the demographic pressure builds, it's schools like Syracuse that are going to slide first.

I have always maintained that Syracuse doesn't want to be compared to us at the kitchen table. UConn is simply a better, less expensive school and in a better area. I believe Syracuse in no way wants UConn in its conference because, by any comparison, it looks inferior. Being in the same conference would only draw more attention to this reality. UConn, with its big cost advantage and more selective admissions, looks like the smart choice over Syracuse and people get it.

 

[hank970]

It is easier to teach a STEM person to be creative than to teach a creative person how to code.

When I was at UConn, marketing was a big fat joke of a major within the business school for people that wanted a business degree without working that hard. I should know, because that is how I got into the business school with my sophomore year grades. I switched to finance within a month. Today, marketing is a completely different degree, and I think one that will be very much in demand in the future. Marketing has become so much more complex across channels and platforms, and marketers need to know how all of those things interact. Sales and distribution has changed as much as any function in the economy the last 20 years. I think marketing is a great major for young people looking to learn a practical skill.

Creativity is the mother of adaptability, and adaptability is essential for survival. Everyone has to be creative to some extent, or they wouldn't survive. A lot of people equate creativity with some degree of mastery in the fine arts, but it's much broader than that. Further, creativity and innate or learned talents/occupations aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I'll just say that we can make arguments why we should make our kids go to community college instead of a four year school, and maybe we'll eventually get there, but that's a big ask. My daughter has another couple years of high school. She doesn't have the same grades or academic ability as my son, but she works relatively hard and wants the college experience. She'd be looking at UConn, Rutgers (in state), Penn State and other similar schools. I'd have a hard time telling her she can't go there, but instead has to go to our local community college. Especially when all of her friends and peers would be going off to four year schools. Her desire and self-esteem shouldn't trump common sense, but I don't think I could do that to my daughter.

I don't want to crap on anyone's alma mater or school their kid goes to, but there are schools that don't seem worth the price. If my daughter said she wanted to go to University of Hartford (picking on them because it seems like they are in trouble), I would put my foot down. So maybe that's more of what you were referring to.

Yes. That’s it. I am just annoyed. Daughter is 3.4+ with terrific recommendations and a junior year of a 92 average with tough courses.

Her issue is she was a Covid kid, who just had no semblance of end of 8 and 9th grade. It sucked and she was an 82 student that first year because she was just lost as a part time student.

Her junior year classes get her UConn and Penn Stats, but her frosh has been hard to get gpa there. Maybe we should try and get denied.

 

[Chuck]

Yes. That’s it. I am just annoyed. Daughter is 3.4+ with terrific recommendations and a junior year of a 92 average with tough courses.

Her issue is she was a Covid kid, who just had no semblance of end of 8 and 9th grade. It sucked and she was an 82 student that first year because she was just lost as a part time student.

Her junior year classes get her UConn and Penn Stats, but her frosh has been hard to get gpa there. Maybe we should try and get denied.

ABSOLUTELY APPLY, especially since most of the good state schools don't have additional essays. Yes, application costs add up, but not too bad. Schools definitely look at progression of grades considering the pandemic and maybe her personal statement on the common app should focus on that.

Somewhat on topic with this thread (novel for the Boneyard), some of the low acceptance rates we're seeing seem a bit misleading. Many kids are applying to 15 or more schools. That's crazy and they can only go to one of those schools. But it helps the schools show low acceptance rates. Northeastern has a crazy low acceptance rate, but the kids from our school going there are just very good (not outstanding) students. Our school saw a lot of kids get off wait lists VERY late, a bunch after May 1. When they changed schools late, it opened slots from the place they originally committed to, etc. We also saw some kids get in to great schools for second semester (including Michigan and Cornell). This way the school doesn't have to count their gpa/SAT.