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The Bubble

UConnDan97 said:
My gut says that we'd need to win the AAC tourney to get in. I wish we were able to pick up one or two more of those overtime games which would have certainly changed the story.

Having said that...I think we're going to win the AAC tourney anyways...
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Damn that freak injury to Akok. I feel like he’d really be the difference. I feel worse for him but we really are a legit dangerous team.
 
Hmmm. At the start of the season I firmly believed we'd make the tourney. I wasn't expecting Gilbert to regress, I figured he'd show a little to a bit of improvement. I figured Carlton would improve a bit as well. And I certainly didn't expect season ending injuries to 2 starters.

Polley hurt because he had 11 boards before he went out, and I don't think he'd ever had more than 5 boards his whole CAREER. Akok hurt because the only 2 basketball players I know of that played good ball after an Achilles tear are Sabonis and Dominique. It hurt to see such a great kid suffer an injury like that. Akok is much younger than they were and surgical techniques are much better in 2020, so I am hoping he will have a great pro career regardless of injury.

Having said that, I am optimistic about our tourney chances. The AAC has been ranked anywhere from the 6th to 8th best conference the last 7 years, and has had 2-4 teams sent to the tourney in that span (not counting this year). If this is a 4 team year, we should be in, especially if we don't blow it this weekend. If we win a game or two in the conference tourney, I like our odds.

We could very well be out even if we win 2 more games (let's say only 2 AAC teams get in). But the NCAA likes drama and underdogs. And we are dogs, and underdogs. "Former 4X NCAA champs return to the tourney for the first time since 2016 despite losing 2 starters to season ending injuries" has a nice ring to it. We have one of the most exciting freshman in UConn history on our team, and Vital doesn't want to go out like that. We are playing our best ball of the year. These kids play harder than any UConn team I've seen. That's my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if we win our conference tourney, even though we have little size or depth. We are hot right now. If the AAC gets 3 or more teams in the tourney, we DESERVE to be one of them.
 
It's not what CV wants, but it's going to be difficult to keep UConn out of the NIT. Based on the last five years, the number of autobids to the NIT has been 10, 12, 10, 15, 12. So somewhere between 17 and 22 at-large teams will get in. The NCAA will need to do some serious contortions to keep UConn out. I'd expect no worse than a 4 seed, which could improve.
 
storrsroars said:
It's not what CV wants, but it's going to be difficult to keep UConn out of the NIT. Based on the last five years, the number of autobids to the NIT has been 10, 12, 10, 15, 12. So somewhere between 17 and 22 at-large teams will get in. The NCAA will need to do some serious contortions to keep UConn out. I'd expect no worse than a 4 seed, which could improve.
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Mocks have us around a 2 seed in the NIT.
 
auror said:
That's kinda interesting. That's not a snapshot, it's a full season model. So it's anticipating bid thieves and how the tournaments will play out.
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Interesting enough it didn't even have us in yesterday which seems unbelievable. This was his explanation yesterday:

Three things: First, their Strength of Record is much worse than what normally indicates a team is NIT-likely. Second, because the model looks forward, it’s weighting in the possibility they drop a tricky road game at Tulane this weekend or their first AAC Tournament game. Third, the model did have them more likely to make the NIT than to miss it entering today. That number’s on the College Basketball Probabilities page. Like you, I was surprised the model didn’t have them in the NIT when its readouts came back this morning. It’s a tight field, though, and while they’ve been playing great lately, their overall body of work has some weaknesses.
 
I gotta think the committee picks UConn if we end up being on the bubble. UConn would put butts in seats and that's all that matters
 
you'll pull a '10/'11 streak out of your asses and then....lose to creighton/SHU/VU in the finals. ;)
 
HungryHuskies said:
I gotta think the committee picks UConn if we end up being on the bubble. UConn would put butts in seats and that's all that matters
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Even if this helped UConn in some way. For the sake of NCAAB i'd really like to hope this wasn't the case.
 
pepband99 said:
This isn't that hard. UNI was, at best, a fringe at-large. Losing that badly likely knocked them out. At best it's arguable. You and @HuskyHawk are too busy trying to boomersplain this to notice that you may be wrong.
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I‘m not commenting on any one situation. It’s simple. Any upset in a conference tournament that puts a team in, that was otherwise not an at large team, will shrink the bubble opportunities if that league does have any at large level teams. Since it is not always clear who might get in anyway, we should root against upsets.

Nothing about that is wrong. UConn is an example. Since Houston is probably safely in (and I think Wichita State too), if UConn wins the AAC we steal an at large spot from some other team.
 

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