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The Bubble

Syracuse is going to make the tourney with an 18-14 record barely above .500 in down ACC



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MervthePurvis said:
Semis get us in I think. But let me pose this question. Would you rather get into the dance and possibly leave early or win the NIT? The question is about development. I know what most would say but hardware is important too.
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I really don't think the AAC gets more than 3 teams in, I don't care what happens. If we win the tourney and get the automatic bid then we will be taking the place of one of our conference mates. When has the Committee ever treated this conference fairly? I think we would need to get the auto bid to get in.
 
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Doctor Hoop said:
Devils advocate here. Logic says we aren’t on the bubble ... but ... during the broadcast they said Jerry Palm’s last 4 in included Texas and Richmond. We are 49 Kenpom. Richmond is 48, Texas is 50.

Hmmmm....
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In the old version we'd have a better shot. If you consider all our OT and close losses, plus our injuries and overall "bad luck", it's easy to conclude we are deserving. But they have gone away from that now and are more raw metrics based. There we probably fall short. This is why I was so annoyed that we blew the Temple game.
 
JimHurley said:
I think if we beat Tulane and make it to the final of the conference tournament, we'll at least get a look at an at-large bid. That'll put us at 22-13 with 13 wins out of our final 16 games. If we're the 7 seed and make it to the conference tournament final, that'll mean we beat the #2 and #3 seed of the conference.
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Something to think about.... That 13th loss (presumably in the finals of the AAC) might not be factored in since the game is at ~3pm on Sunday. Discussions will be well underway. If the game is against Houston, the committee may want to slot us in the same spot win or lose (which could also help us get out of the first four games).
 
businesslawyer said:
You need to understand how the tournament field gets filled.
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If they were in before, and still in, it's very bad for us.
If they were in before, and not in anymore, it's very good for us.
If they weren't in before, they're 100% not in now.

@Tex-Lager93 has a better chance of being right, imho.
 
pepband99 said:
If they were in before, and still in, it's very bad for us.
If they were in before, and not in anymore, it's very good for us.
If they weren't in before, they're 100% not in now.

@Tex-Lager93 has a better chance of being right, imho.
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If they were in before and not anymore, it's neutral for us, since the Missouri Valley Conference is only expected to get one. In fact, it's still bad for us because we're more likely headed to the NIT and UNI is now 100% in there, whereas if they won their conference tournament the MVC might not have had any NIT representation.
 
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Hoops91 said:
Taking the UCONN googles off for a sec. I don't think the NCAA takes more than two AAC teams, 3 is the absolute max-UCONN is 6th in the conference.

The AAC conference stinks, read the feedback everyone hates being in it because the lack of talent. UCONN needs to win the conference to get in. We're getting better but it's not our time unless they win the conf championship. On the bright side, because the conference stinks they could win this and get the at large..
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This is it in a nutshell. Well said.
 
Tex-Lager93 said:
A 21 point loss to Drake in the quarters of a mid-major conference tourney...isn't helping their cause.
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O.K., let me spell it out for you. The Valley's tourney champion gets an automatic bid, no matter who it is (hence, my use of the word "automatic"). Any team that doesn't win the tourney is in the pool of teams that might be considered for an at-large selection. If Northern Iowa won the tournament, the Valley was a one-bid league as no one else would be considered for an at large. Because Northern Iowa did not win the Valley, it will be considered for an at large and there is thus one more school that the selection committee needs to determine is not as deserving as us.

This was really necessary? Where a small conference has one team that is clearly the best, and the only team in the league good enough to compete for an at-large selection, you want it to win its conference tournament, not lose it.
 
businesslawyer said:
O.K., let me spell it out for you. The Valley's tourney champion gets an automatic bid, no matter who it is (hence, my use of the word "automatic"). Any team that doesn't win the tourney is in the pool of teams that might be considered for an at-large selection. If Northern Iowa won the tournament, the Valley was a one-bid league as no one else would be considered for an at large. Because Northern Iowa did not win the Valley, it will be considered for an at large and there is thus one more school that the selection committee needs to determine is not as deserving as us.

This was really necessary? Where a small conference has one team that is clearly the best, and the only team in the league good enough to compete for an at-large selection, you want it to win its conference tournament, not lose it.
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Sad that you had to say all that. This is the college basketball equivalent of Kindergarten stuff. It should be obvious to all that upsets in those league tournaments hurt any bubble teams. Frankly, that includes us. If UConn wins out, somebody else just lost a spot (most likely).
 
businesslawyer said:
O.K., let me spell it out for you. The Valley's tourney champion gets an automatic bid, no matter who it is (hence, my use of the word "automatic"). Any team that doesn't win the tourney is in the pool of teams that might be considered for an at-large selection. If Northern Iowa won the tournament, the Valley was a one-bid league as no one else would be considered for an at large. Because Northern Iowa did not win the Valley, it will be considered for an at large and there is thus one more school that the selection committee needs to determine is not as deserving as us.

This was really necessary? Where a small conference has one team that is clearly the best, and the only team in the league good enough to compete for an at-large selection, you want it to win its conference tournament, not lose it.
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This isn't that hard. UNI was, at best, a fringe at-large. Losing that badly likely knocked them out. At best it's arguable. You and @HuskyHawk are too busy trying to boomersplain this to notice that you may be wrong.
 
pepband99 said:
This isn't that hard. UNI was, at best, a fringe at-large. Losing that badly likely knocked them out. At best it's arguable. You and @HuskyHawk are too busy trying to boomersplain this to notice that you may be wrong.
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It probably did knock them out. What do you think the word "probably" means in that sentence. Give me one possible scenario that we became more likely to get an at large bid because say Drake wins the conference. At worst it doesn't matter.
 
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businesslawyer said:
O.K., let me spell it out for you. The Valley's tourney champion gets an automatic bid, no matter who it is (hence, my use of the word "automatic"). Any team that doesn't win the tourney is in the pool of teams that might be considered for an at-large selection.

You're right - the best case scenario was for UNI to win the conference. No argument. But, there are two mid-major teams that are being highly considered without winning their tournament, UNI and ETSU - two potential 2 bid mid-major conferences. That was if they made their respective conference tournament finals. All I'm saying is the at-large status is out due to the Drake loss - and took that risk (potential 2 bid conference) off the table.
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Is there any way to calculate what our NET would be if we had just held on to win that Nova game? I’d imagine it would have helped our ranking a lot. I know it’s moot, but I’m just curious.
 
navery12 said:

Bracketology 2026 - NCAA Tournament / NIT Projections

Our Bracketology for 2026! We list projections for all of NCAA Basketball tournament seeds as well as the NIT tournament in March.
www.dratings.com www.dratings.com

Listed in Next Four Out here
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Beat Memphis and Cinci and are we in?
 
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NIT seeds above us. We've got some work to do to get a NCAA at large bid, but it's definitely possible.
 
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My gut says that we'd need to win the AAC tourney to get in. I wish we were able to pick up one or two more of those overtime games which would have certainly changed the story.

Having said that...I think we're going to win the AAC tourney anyways...
 
if things go as projected this weekend we'd be 5 seed and play: Tulane > WSU > Cincy > Houston. hopefully tulsa upsets houston in the semis but either way we avoid houston until the finals.

if we end up losing to houston we still might get a bid if we knock wsu or cincy off the bubble idk. hopefully we can just beat tulsa for the chip
 
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Don't leave anything up to chance if you don't have to. Win. And win big. The narrative in the locker has to be.. I don't care where you find it, or how you find it.. but find 160 minutes of balls to the wall effort and hold the guy next to you accountable to do the same thing.
 
navery12 said:

Bracketology 2026 - NCAA Tournament / NIT Projections

Our Bracketology for 2026! We list projections for all of NCAA Basketball tournament seeds as well as the NIT tournament in March.
www.dratings.com www.dratings.com

Listed in Next Four Out here
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I'll take it at this point! We are on a "bubble" for the first time in 4 years! We need to leapfrog at least 8 teams according to this ☺ but it feels good again to make a list.
 
Clemson couldn’t polish our shoes they are garbage don’t care what wins they have eye test tonight says we beat them by 20.
 
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