The bottom teams in the American need to get better

[tzznandrew]

Right. The NBE was better than the American this year, no doubt. But after Villanova, the difference wasn't quite so start at the top.

It was profound, at least on an RPI level, at the bottom.

These schools need to get their together.

 

[ktuck911]

No disrespect to the AAC whatsoever, but the reality for us is our football team has to show better. We have to appeal to the P5 conferences so we get an invite.... I think we're doomed if we stay here too long.. On the other hand, we could get to the point where we dominate this conference for the next decade and be happy in our own world....

 

[deedougie]

Right. The NBE was better than the American this year, no doubt. But after Villanova, the difference wasn't quite so start at the top.

It was profound, at least on an RPI level, at the bottom.

These schools need to get their together.

Agree 100 percent. According to the Courant article about the AAC last week it sounds like they are taking that seriously for next season (I hope so!):

AAC commissioner Mike Aresco: "The associate commissioner is working really hard on RPI, making sure schools schedule properly. We're telling the schools coming in, 'You're upgrading. You're going to be going into a league that's tough. You've got to play a tougher nonconference schedule. It helps everybody.' We want our conference wins to count just as much as the nonconference wins."

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn...r-mike-aresco-0314-20150313-story.html#page=1

 

[johnhuskies95]

I'd like to see UConn follow VCU's approach to scheduling as much as possible. They play in a similar conference and had a top 20 SOS this year.

 

[Uconnjohn]

Saying they need to get better is easier said than done.

These schools have limited athletic budgets, are losing a lot of money, and the money they are spending is going to their football product. They don't have the resources to "get better" at basketball. They are "all in" for football, and basketball is taking a back seat. Even Temple is slashing spending left and right in order to keep their football program a float.

And with the new stipends being issued out, that is an even bigger hit on the athletic budgets of these schools. That's going to be an even bigger hit to their basketball.

These schools are lucky to draw 2,000 fans to many of their games. What makes anyone think that they are going to take some of their finite athletic operating budget and start pumping it into basketball. Where is the money going to come from? What corners are they going to cut to find money for basketball? And if they up their basketball operating budgets by 25%, is that really going to be enough to move the needle and improve them? Probably not.

 

[August_West]

I'd like to see UConn follow VCU's approach to scheduling as much as possible. They play in a similar conference and had a top 20 SOS this year.

Our schedule was fine this year, no one expected Florida , Texas and Stamford to go in the crapper plus we played duke , West Virginia and dayton.

Problem is we only won 2 of those.

You gotta win them

 

[mauconnfan]

I'd like to see UConn follow VCU's approach to scheduling as much as possible. They play in a similar conference and had a top 20 SOS this year.

I don't know john I think based on program names alone we were right there with VCU's, sometimes different years team get a little better or worst that's all:

UConn - Dayton, West Virginia, Duke, Florida, Stanford
VCU - Tennessee, Nova, Oregon, UVA, Cincy

Turned out they played more tourney teams but no reason to think on a given year the teams we played werent as good or better.

 

[tzznandrew]

I don't know john I think based on program names alone we were right there with VCU's, sometimes different years team get a little better or worst that's all:

UConn - Dayton, West Virginia, Duke, Florida, Stanford
VCU - Tennessee, Nova, Oregon, UVA, Cincy

Turned out they played more tourney teams but no reason to think on a given year the teams we played werent as good or better.

The bottom of the A10 isn't as bad as the bottom of the American.
Florida, Texas, and Stanford underperformed. Not much you can do about that.

 

[Matrim55]

Tulsa is gonna be better with their guards coming back and Houston may give a bit of a surprise. ECU also, but I'm afraid for Temple who might just lose everyone besides that Jaylen Bond kid. I'm not very high on Temple next season.

Temple return 6 of their top 8 (they'll lose Cummings and Morgan) and have a pretty solid class coming in. They will be weak at PG, however, which probably means they're the sixth-best team in the conference.

Cincinnati, Tulsa & Memphis each return the top 7 guys in their rotation. Cincy's class is solid, Tulsa's is crap, and Memphis has a top 25 class (so far).

SMU lose the most - two bigs and their best perimeter defender. But they bring back Moore & Kennedy and have another very good class coming in.

Then there's us. We lose one guy and have another promising class (including arguably the best recruit in the conference in Adams).

ECU return their top 5. Their class isn't well regarded, but they did add a JuCo big man (which they need badly).

Houston - who were much better in the second half of the season - return their top 7 and have a solid, 3-man class with size.

UCF lose just one of their top 8, and have a 4-man class that includes a 7-foot-5 kid. We all know that if McBride gets in shape for more than 14 minutes per game, this team can be mildly scary.

USF & Tulane are going to be complete dumpster fires, though USF's class is good and they should at least improve.

If I were to guess, I'd say only the last two teams end up outside the top 200. Houston is a sleeper to be pretty good next year, and it is going to be a rock fight at the top.

For stupid, stupid fun:

2015 AAC preseason prediction:
1. Cincinnati
2. UConn
3. SMU
4. Memphis
5. Tulsa
6. Houston
7. Temple
8. UCF
9. USF
10. ECU
11. Tulane

I think it's a 4- or 5-bid league next year (those top 4 teams all have top 25 talent), but everyone here's already made the big point: this league needs to get out of the blocks fast and kick some in the OOC schedule.

 

[tzznandrew]

Temple return 6 of their top 8 (they'll lose Cummings and Morgan) and have a pretty solid class coming in. They will be weak at PG, however, which probably means they're the sixth-best team in the conference.

Cincinnati, Tulsa & Memphis each return the top 7 guys in their rotation. Cincy's class is solid, Tulsa's is crap, and Memphis has a top 25 class (so far).

SMU lose the most - two bigs and their best perimeter defender. But they bring back Moore & Kennedy and have another very good class coming in.

Then there's us. We lose one guy and have another promising class (including arguably the best recruit in the conference in Adams).

ECU return their top 5. Their class isn't well regarded, but they did add a JuCo big man (which they need badly).

Houston - who were much better in the second half of the season - return their top 7 and have a solid, 3-man class with size.

UCF lose just one of their top 8, and have a 4-man class that includes a 7-foot-5 kid. We all know that if McBride gets in shape for more than 14 minutes per game, this team can be mildly scary.

USF & Tulane are going to be complete dumpster fires, though USF's class is good and they should at least improve.

If I were to guess, I'd say only the last two teams end up outside the top 200. Houston is a sleeper to be pretty good next year, and it is going to be a rock fight at the top.

For stupid, stupid fun:

2015 AAC preseason prediction:
1. Cincinnati
2. UConn
3. SMU
4. Memphis
5. Tulsa
6. Houston
7. Temple
8. UCF
9. USF
10. ECU
11. Tulane

I think it's a 4- or 5-bid league next year (those top 4 teams all have top 25 talent), but everyone here's already made the big point: this league needs to get out of the blocks fast and kick some in the OOC schedule.

Nice post.

I'd like to keep track on how the dregs are scheduling.

If Temple is our 7th best team or so, that's a pretty decent league.

 

[Dooley]

Agree that the bottom half of this conference is absolutely embarrassing. But not for nothing, we also need to do annual lifting for this dreg of a conference in a similar manner that WVU football used to do for the Big East. We're the top "brand" dog, no pun intended, and if we're losing the high profile OOC games (Duke, Texas, even WVU or Stanford), that's no bueno for the conference either. I'm not saying we need to run the OOC table every year, but losing to WVU/Stanford types isn't all that encouraging either. Unfair? Absolutely, given our pedigree and Ring of Honor. But if we're talking about what this conference needs in order to improve its profile with future tourney committees, we need to do our part too.

 

[wheelerdog]

Teams like Stanford and Florida falling apart didn't help obviously, and we desperately need to get Coppin State off the schedule, but it doesn't really matter too much if you're playing 9-10 games a year against conference teams with a +200 RPI.

100%

 

[deedougie]

If I were to guess, I'd say only the last two teams end up outside the top 200. Houston is a sleeper to be pretty good next year, and it is going to be a rock fight at the top.

I think it's a 4- or 5-bid league next year (those top 4 teams all have top 25 talent), but everyone here's already made the big point: this league needs to get out of the blocks fast and kick some in the OOC schedule.

Thanks for the analysis and I hope we only have one sub 200 team next season! It does seem like the AAC has the "potential" to be a decent league for basketball for the next couple of years until (hopefully) UConn can get the heck out of the conference.

 

[Matrim55]

Thanks for the analysis and I hope we only have one sub 200 team next season! It does seem like the AAC has the "potential" to be a decent league for basketball for the next couple of years until (hopefully) UConn can get the heck out of the conference.

Yup. It's not the old Big East, but it's not dogs**t either.

The problem is that none of these teams are our rivals, so except for the diehards and true hoops junkies, nothing here feels quite as important or relevant as it once did.

And now I'm sad again.

 

[UConnSwag11]

I think the bottom will get better sooner rather than later.

1) Orlando Antigua has the youngest team in the country at USF (I know this because I heard it on ESPN every 14 seconds when we play them). They'll likely get much better than what they were this year.

2) It's only a matter of time before Kelvin Sampson gets his cheating....I mean, his "system"....into place at Houston.

3) I think UCF will get better. They seem to find a gem or two that can help them out, and if that kid McBride loses 30 pounds, he's going to be Shaq reincarnated.

4) ECU showed some signs of life down the stretch. I don't know how long it will take them to get their act together, but they snuck up on both Cincy and Memphis this year, so maybe it's not too far away.

Let's hope this conference can do a lot better in the OOC next season, so that we don't pay the price for "guilt by association"...

ecu's squad, the guards seem like they can play... also i really like tulsas guards...

@Brochacho posted this earlier

Maryland, 4 seed, MSG
Georgetown, 4 seed, XL Center
Ohio State, 10 seed, assuming Gampel
Texas, 11 seed, away

Battle 4 Atlantis:
Syracuse - Ineligible
Gonzaga - 2 seed NCAA
Texas - 11 seed NCAA
Texas A&M - 2 seed NIT
UConn - 4 seed NIT
Michigan - no NCAA/NIT
Washington - no NCAA/NIT
Charlotte - no NCAA/NIT


we should easily have a top 20 sos... also i assume memphis will be better next year... and cinci

 

[tzznandrew]

Let's just look at the dregs' OOC schedule:

Damn it. I can't seem to load the photo I got.

I'll upload it when it when I can. USF actually scheduled like a real team, but lost all the games. Most of the others didn't.

But, point being, this is the list of sub-100 non-major teams our conference-mates have lost to: UIC, Florida Atlantic (x2!!), Detroit, Georgia Southern, Bowling Green, UNC Asheville, Hawai'i, UNC Wilmington, South Carolina St., Arkansas Pine-Bluff.

If they just won those games--some of which are sub-300--they would have improved their RPI a great deal.

Houston would go from 239 to 215.
UCF from 256 to 220
USF from 273 to 220
East Carolina from 220 to 143.

And those are only in a vacuum (hence the two at 220). If they all did that, I'd wager all of them (and ECU [212] who didn't lose a game to a sub-100 lower-major) would be under 200.

And that's with terrible schedules and still losing most of their actual decent games. Just beat the crap teams.

 

[UconnFanDC]

I doubt it will happen while those teams are young. These teams will do well when they are upperclassmen laden. Outside of Houston and maybe South Florida moving forward, none of those schools have been attractive to recruits. No history, no location no good conference. We have to live on Uconn, Memphis, SMU (while Larry is there) and Cincy. I believe Houston and SFL will step up. I hope others will but either way, Football is where the money is

 

[UCweCONN]

Let's just look at the dregs' OOC schedule:

Damn it. I can't seem to load the photo I got.

I'll upload it when it when I can. USF actually scheduled like a real team, but lost all the games. Most of the others didn't.

But, point being, this is the list of sub-100 non-major teams our conference-mates have lost to: UIC, Florida Atlantic (x2!!), Detroit, Georgia Southern, Bowling Green, UNC Asheville, Hawai'i, UNC Wilmington, South Carolina St., Arkansas Pine-Bluff.

If they just won those games--some of which are sub-300--they would have improved their RPI a great deal.

Houston would go from 239 to 215.
UCF from 256 to 220
USF from 273 to 220
East Carolina from 220 to 143.

And those are only in a vacuum (hence the two at 220). If they all did that, I'd wager all of them (and ECU [212] who didn't lose a game to a sub-100 lower-major) would be under 200.

And that's with terrible schedules and still losing most of their actual decent games. Just beat the crap teams.

Wow, this post depresses me. I had no idea how bad it was. These schools are like the non-conference opponents we play for a check. The bottom of our league is so bad they probably can't get teams to come to them or want to play them. This doesn't bode well for elevating the league.