Sadly, I think we are farther away than ever from getting out of the worst possible conference for UConn. The biggie - Football is dreadful. Second banana - Men's BB is not in the big leagues anymore. Sure Women's BB and Field Hockey are great, but unfortunately they mean nothing for CR purposes. Time to mothball the CR thread. We don't have a snowball's chance in hell of being drafted into a P-5 conference now. (I don't care how many of Louisville's athletes (and coaches) are on parole,
The Boneyard's CR thread needs to be mothballed...
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If it was about that wed be in already. Football wasnt that bad when the Big East went, and everyone knows how basketball was. Its about the money, what school will bring the conference the most money. Out of the GO5, we lead in that category. Theres a lot of hope still here.
I have to salute your optimism - regardless of how futile it might be. Yea - UConn is the best school left out - no doubt! Further, so many that are "in", are not worthy. But that reminds me of an experience I had on I-91 in Middletown a number of years back. I got pulled over by a trooper. The trooper told me I was the slowest guy he stopped and wrote up that day (the cheeky bastard). I said why couldn't I be the fastest guy you didn't stop? He chuckled and I still paid!
If it was so futile on our part, why are other schools with zero (or maybe 1) national titles looking to upgrade to FBS?
If you guys know anything about college sports, growth of programs is done not only by winning titles, but by also paying dues. Which is what we are doing right now. We'll be out of the AAC in a matter of time. Our fanbase acts so entitled.
A continuous stream of National Championships in any Division 1 sports means a lot to people like Jim Delaney and John Swofford. Maybe not as much as a winning football program but it does enter into their assessment of UCONN, couple that with academic ranking, rivalries and a very good fan base from NYC up to Boston, and HCRE's efforts to rebuild the football program. They also know that if they do invite Uconn, HCRE's and KO's ability to recruit improves by light years.
Trouble is Butch - we already did that. It was a long, arduous travail. My point is that with current state of CR it takes both quality performance and a dogged determination to improve to attract interest of a P-5 conference. Right now, with the two marquis sports, football and basketball, we are seriously lacking. We need to be performing at a much higher level in both or the backslide will continue...
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BUConn10
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I'm really not so sure about the bolded part anymore, because like you said, if the money was there (for us) we would already be in the club, making the bigger fish money. The money just isn't there at the moment to consider us for addition, and they surely don't see it for us going forward like they did for UL.
CL82
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Markets help athletic programs become developed. We obviously have the market. And everyone knows we are capable.
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i think we need to buildup the football program and basketball program. Win a few AAC conference championships in men's basketball and football between now and 2025. Also use the time between now and 2025 to increase the fan base. If we do those things we will put ourself in position to be considered as a candidate for the P5, if the conferences decide to expand. UConn just needs to win.
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HuskyHawk
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Hard for me to believe that this is even serious. CR is never dead, just off the burner from time to time. Our conference contract is due for renegotiation next year. Others are coming up. Even the Big XII GOR expires in just a few years now. How is the AAC the worst conference we could be in? It's probably the 5th best, as I sure wouldn't want to be in the Pac.
I don't see much happening in the next two years unless Notre Dame joins the ACC all in (unlikely) or somebody decides to move preemptively (possible). But I'd say in three years the pot will be on full boil again. The P5 might decide to split off, and form a new D1, or we could see consolidation among conferences or more expansion. The TV/Cable/Streaming situation is so muddled that I don't think they have a good view of future revenue right now.
If you take a look back, to when we had several smaller, regional conferences, each team negotiated its own TV rights. They had little leverage, even the big ones. That changed, and conferences sold the rights as a package, and even the biggest schools got more money. Then they set up networks to capitalize on non revenue sports. The trend escalated up to the new B1G contract. I think that's peak cable money.
The future looks rather different. Cable companies will be forced to cut spending on media rights. Big schools will want to claim their own T3 rights, and streaming rights. But somebody has to produce these games. It's going to become very interesting to see what happens. Meanwhile the NCAA gets the NCAA tournament money and doles it out to all the 300+ D1 schools. The P5 doesn't like this. They want more. Yet they know they they don't have enough teams to keep the magic alive. So if they split off, they have to bring more than P5 schools with them. I think it could become very chaotic in the next 5 years or so. UConn knows this and is spending vast sums to tread water until then.
I don't see much happening in the next two years unless Notre Dame joins the ACC all in (unlikely) or somebody decides to move preemptively (possible). But I'd say in three years the pot will be on full boil again. The P5 might decide to split off, and form a new D1, or we could see consolidation among conferences or more expansion. The TV/Cable/Streaming situation is so muddled that I don't think they have a good view of future revenue right now.
If you take a look back, to when we had several smaller, regional conferences, each team negotiated its own TV rights. They had little leverage, even the big ones. That changed, and conferences sold the rights as a package, and even the biggest schools got more money. Then they set up networks to capitalize on non revenue sports. The trend escalated up to the new B1G contract. I think that's peak cable money.
The future looks rather different. Cable companies will be forced to cut spending on media rights. Big schools will want to claim their own T3 rights, and streaming rights. But somebody has to produce these games. It's going to become very interesting to see what happens. Meanwhile the NCAA gets the NCAA tournament money and doles it out to all the 300+ D1 schools. The P5 doesn't like this. They want more. Yet they know they they don't have enough teams to keep the magic alive. So if they split off, they have to bring more than P5 schools with them. I think it could become very chaotic in the next 5 years or so. UConn knows this and is spending vast sums to tread water until then.
Fishy
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Realignment is mostly dead. In terms of outside schools getting in....there is only the barest, almost undetectable pulse.
The money that drove it has predictably dried up - predictably only because it fits with the trend of anything that can go wrong will go wrong for UConn. Conferences will struggle to monetize the schools they have, let alone additional schools.
We’re not going to the Big Ten. We’re not going to the Big 12. We’re not going to the Pac12. We’re not going to the SEC. If the Big 12 implodes and we end up with the leftovers, those schools will be joining us as G5 members, not elevating us to P5 status.
We have one potential landing spot and that is the ACC. Given that the ACC has almost no chance of losing any schools in the next 20 years, the only chance we have is if Notre Dame ever decides to join.
Notre Dame is not going to join the ACC.
Soooo....there you go.
The money that drove it has predictably dried up - predictably only because it fits with the trend of anything that can go wrong will go wrong for UConn. Conferences will struggle to monetize the schools they have, let alone additional schools.
We’re not going to the Big Ten. We’re not going to the Big 12. We’re not going to the Pac12. We’re not going to the SEC. If the Big 12 implodes and we end up with the leftovers, those schools will be joining us as G5 members, not elevating us to P5 status.
We have one potential landing spot and that is the ACC. Given that the ACC has almost no chance of losing any schools in the next 20 years, the only chance we have is if Notre Dame ever decides to join.
Notre Dame is not going to join the ACC.
Soooo....there you go.
CL82
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HuskyHawk
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Can't argue that, but there are two other scenarios that I think are possible.
1. Cable money dries up completely, and even the P5 aren't getting paid, which drives those conferences back to the local 10 team conferences they were before. Reduces travel costs, improves gate receipts with more games vs rivals and allows each school to better monetize it's programs. Basically a return to the 70's model but in a streaming world.
2. There is a split with the NCAA from the biggest programs, who would need to pull in more schools to make it work.
He's right though that our only chance is with the ACC, but I think he's wrong that Notre Dame will never join the ACC. First of all, they already are in the ACC including major college basketball. If the Notre Dame wants the best chance to get a spot in the football playoffs in the ensuing years they will need membership in a Power 5 conference. The only sticking point is the TV contract which could easily be worked out to everyone's satisfaction.
"I hate when Fishy posts about conference realignment."
But he's right.
He's usually right, but let's hope Fishy is wrong this time. ☺️
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PS: The BE.
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CL82
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So hard to unwind things. If there are more "have nots" than "haves" in a conference, and that's the way it typically is. The have nots aren't going to vote themselves off the island, at least until the volcano is erupting. See e.g., the Big East Basketball only schools.
HuskyHawk
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No question there are challenges. I guess what I am saying is that 30+ years ago, nobody imagined that the conferences would look the way they do now. Nobody imagined the revenue. It was a huge disruptive shift.
I think we are going to see another huge disruptive shift. So predicting the status quo in response to that shift strikes me as foolhardy. Something is going to happen. Any predictions are just darts thrown blindly at a board, but I do not thing the current P5 structure is destined to last very long.
CL82
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I don't disagree and since the status quo is our enemy, change has at least the chance to be an ally.
If money dries up to the point that G5 don't receive any reasonable value for their rights and ends up rights back to the schools, as I think you suggested, UConn is relatively well position to monetize their rights.
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Conferences have changed dramatically over time and I suspect this will continue, but timing is hard to predict. The next shoe to drop for schools is the revenue model as the media business model changes and that is coming soon. Any change opens up potential conference realignment. For example, does anybody think that conference networks sold as part of a cable bundle is a sustainable model in the long run? What will media contracts look like in the future? Will schools be paid equally within a conference or by eyeballs? Will it make sense for a conference to downsize to increase revenues for the remaining members?
In the case of UConn, do you think UConn could sell a UConn network in Connecticut that includes all UConn sports for a decent price and sell it outside of the market at a lower price? Sure. Could Baylor, Wake Forest, BC, Washington St., TCU, ...? Not likely.
In the case of UConn, do you think UConn could sell a UConn network in Connecticut that includes all UConn sports for a decent price and sell it outside of the market at a lower price? Sure. Could Baylor, Wake Forest, BC, Washington St., TCU, ...? Not likely.
BS at what Fishy says about the Big Ten. He is totally incorrect. But believe as you want...
God Almighty. No wonder China is gaining the upper hand. I will not debate the Big Ten's actual interest in us. Like I said, believe whatever you want. People with aspirations can actually accomplish what some you deem impossible.
God Almighty. No wonder China is gaining the upper hand. I will not debate the Big Ten's actual interest in us. Like I said, believe whatever you want. People with aspirations can actually accomplish what some you deem impossible.
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I am.
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I wonder how many scandals will continue to rock the ACC? Louisvile and UNC are outright embarrassments. Syracuse and FSU always have a particular stench around them and let's face it: everytime Miami has been good in the ACC there has been the inevitable recruiting scandal to bring it back down. But hey, they have a great network and streaming experience to fall back on, right?
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LOL...the thread is about the CR chances of UConn...and you are talking about the ACC.....
If you have nothing to cheer for, it is good to have something to cheer against, I guess.
The ACC is doing OK. I reckon.....I have tried to start watching basketball...the ACC-Big Ten Challenge...Duke vs Indiana is, so far, a good game. The Big Ten needs a win or two...so far, the ACC has a dominating record in this year's challenge.
I guess basketball, for me is an acquired taste,but I am working at it.
I think conference "dealignment" is closer than any other scenario. Cable/satellite money is dwindling and the profitability of both college and professional sports is likely to suffer greatly as only real viewers of the events pay for them. The result will likely be much more regional formation of conferences simply for budgetary reasons. I believe it will look much more like the past rather than what we have now.
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