I hear what you're saying about Davis tendency to strike out but he is only 29 and I think he has four or five more good years before he begins to lose it. The sox have a need for someone who can provide power and they have an opening at first base. Davis is an RBI guy and a good fielder plus he knows the AL east pitchers as well as anyone. Over the last four years he has averaged 40 home runs and over 100 RBI's. I don't see anyone on the Red Sox roster or in the farm system capable of producing those numbers.
Man, Chris Davis' profile is one that ages horribly. As good of a hitter as he is, right now, it'd be incompetence if we gave him a 5 year contract. Paying Davis 20 million a year once his ISO and HHCnt% takes a dive, while also paying 10-12 million to whatever team decides to take on Hanley seems like moving in the wrong direction. I'm not very optimistic on Hanley, but you don't compound the issue by paying him to play elsewhere whilst signing a guy who profiles into his 30's even worst than Hanley does almost as much, if not more money than Hanley to do the same thing Hanley's already doing.
So: Cost of Ramirez - Cost Another Team is Willing to Pick Up + Cost of a 1B Replacement (e.g., Davis, with no leverage now that Napoli and Lind are off the board) < Cost of Ramirez
Factor in the assumption that Ramirez will suck at 1B (not a given)
Factor in a replacement for Ortiz in 2017 (not Ramirez)
The equation needs to balance.
Fernandez is 23 with 3 more years of control. His stuff plays at Fenway (it plays anywhere really) and he would bring the Sox a true bonafide ace like Pedro. The Sox are in need of starting pitching still, even after signing Price. Personally, I'd rather trade Owens over ERod if Moncada is in the deal, but Fernandez is that level of SP that would put the Sox over the top in the AL. He would definitely be able to shut down the Jays lineup and that will be important in 2016-beyond.
You get innings out of your top 2 in the rotation and work on MR for 3-5 of the rotation. It's a perfect recipe for bullpen management.
There are plenty of options you can pursue that don't involve needlessly obliterating your farm system that can put you over the top. Jose Fernandez is a *great* player - but as much as he's under control for three years, he's also under control for well... only three years. And that's 64-something innings removed from TJS.
And the price isn't JUST Moncada. Per the Herald, the Marlins wanted Eduardo Rodriguez, Moncada, Betts, Christian Vazquez and EITHER Owens or Johnson. That's ludicrous. To break that out:
- Six years of Eduardo Rodriguez
- Six years of Yoan Moncada
- Five years of Mookie Betts
- Five years of Christian Vazquez
- Six years of Henry Owens or Brian Johnson
Not sure everyone is a sure thing - but Betts *on his own* is likely to be worth more WAR than Fernandez in the next few years. Even is Rodriguez stays around a 1.6 WAR and does that for the remaining years, and Moncada, Vazquez and Owens/Johnson all burn out - you just got doubled up.
He's expensive - too expensive, in fact and I wouldn't touch him and no, Moncada doesn't put a deal over the top for me. You could take Moncada out of that deal and I wouldn't do it.
That and at this point, it's kind of a luxury. As for where the Sox are, their projected WAR via Fangraphs suggests that they're fine:
Yeah, players who have a decent season in A ball, not even advanced A ball, always work out. This is a moronic statement.
Red Sox fans think Moncada is more valuable than any player in baseball, except maybe Trout, and I have no grasp on how prospects are valued. OK
He hit .310, slugged .500 and stole 45 bags in 54 games after he started cold in his first 20 games. That's a little more than a 'decent season.' For a historical comp, Miguel Cabrera, for example, hit .268/.328/.382 (.709 OPS) in 465 at-bats as an 18-year old in Florida's A-ball affiliate in 2001, and Baseball America still ranked him as the Marlins #2 prospect (#9 in Midwest League, #38 overall) afterward. Scouting means more than analytical work in the Minor Leagues, and Moncada is unanimously a top 10 prospect by almost every reputable scouting resource.
Most have him starting in Portland next year and skipping advanced-A altogether, so you won't have to worry about that.
There are very few prospects in the system who feature natural loft. Devers and Chavis are the only two I can think of immediately, and Chavis was both a year older in A-ball and struck out almost twice as often (with similar low walk totals).
Most prospects have a level swing path that maximizes contact and generates gap-to-gap power instead. That's important, though, because it suggests that since Moncada can already control the zone with reasonable strikeout rates, as he gets stronger with age his doubles should naturally carry farther and become HR, without requiring him to make the sort of significant swing-mechanics changes that derailed guys like Garin Cecchini and Will Middlebrooks, for example.
He's exactly the kind of prospect you don't let anyone else touch, ever. That's why they paid him $60 something million, too.
