Texas & OK ask to join SEC?

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[UCFBfan]

I think if the Big 12 falls apart and the other schools start drifting to other places, WVU is stuck. The ACC has no use for them and that's the only other place for them to go. They're just as lost as the remaining Big 12 schools which makes me think that the Big 12 and some AAC schools form some kind of Big 12 light. There's no desire for those schools from other conferences.

I think the OSU/UM talk is just that, talk. Realignment boiled up again and now it's snowballing into everyone going every where. I think OU/UT are going to the SEC, bit I can see the B1G breaking up. I can see FSU and Clemson seriously looking for a way out ASAP. Not sure how they find it but the fear of being left behind is really creeping in once/if the OU/UT move happens.

Lastly, ND has it nice and pretty. However, they can't be sitting here watching this and not be getting a little jumpy. In the end game, an independent won't be allowed. However, they can choose the conference they want that's not named the SEC. I think their move will signal the last big move of realignment. They will signal the last train leaving the station soon.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

If the ACC took UConn, Army and Navy they would solidify their presence in the metro NYC and metro Washington DC markets. Kansas and UConn would bring it basketball elite status.

 

[huskymedic]

-> The SEC signed a $300 million deal with ESPN last year that gives the network rights to all SEC football games starting in 2024 and is expected to bump the conference’s annual distribution to its members to about $68 million.

The Big 12 distributed $34.5 million per school recently, down over the previous year because of the pandemic.

A projection done by Navigate Research, which does data modeling for professional sports leagues and college conferences, for The Athletic last year had the annual distribution gap between the SEC and Big 12 at about $16 million per team per year in the SEC’s favor by 2026.

That was under the assumption the Big 12 would still have Texas and Oklahoma. <-

 

[Eavesdrop]

Texas and Oklahoma just formally declared their intention not to renew their grant of media rights with the Big 12.

Joint Statement from The University of Texas at Austin and The University of Oklahoma

The University of Texas at Austin and The University of Oklahoma notified the Big 12 Athletic Conference today that they will not be renewing their grants

news.utexas.edu

 

[UConnJim]

If the ACC took UConn, Army and Navy they would solidify their presence in the metro NYC and metro Washington DC markets. Kansas and UConn would bring it basketball elite status.

Conferences are not looking to add schools to increase the number of schools in their conference or solidify geographies, but they are looking to brands that can help drive their conference network revenues when they become streaming services. There is a big difference in value creation to adding Texas and Oklahoma or Notre Dame to your conference than any other current or projected available school. You take Oklahoma and Texas out of the Big 12 and the value of the Big 12 media rights plummets to close to AAC levels. If you take Florida State and Clemson out of the ACC and the value of the ACC media rights plummet as well.

This may sound crazy, but if the ACC cut two of the lowest media value schools from their conference, their media rights value probably doesn't go down at all and they could increase payouts to the remaining schools by $5 to $6 million per year. Add in Notre Dame and maybe you can narrow the gap between the ACC and the Big 10 and SEC and keep Florida State and Clemson happy.

 

[huskymedic]

Conferences are not looking to add schools to increase the number of schools in their conference or solidify geographies, but they are looking to brands that can help drive their conference network revenues when they become streaming services. There is a big difference in value creation to adding Texas and Oklahoma or Notre Dame to your conference than any other current or projected available school. You take Oklahoma and Texas out of the Big 12 and the value of the Big 12 media rights plummets to close to AAC levels. If you take Florida State and Clemson out of the ACC and the value of the ACC media rights plummet as well.

This may sound crazy, but if the ACC cut two of the lowest media value schools from their conference, their media rights value probably doesn't go down at all and they could increase payouts to the remaining schools by $5 to $6 million per year. Add in Notre Dame and maybe you can narrow the gap between the ACC and the Big 10 and SEC and keep Florida State and Clemson happy.

 

[TRest]

The funniest thing about ACC expansion is that instead of those new teams making the conference better in football, the conference has made them all worse. Keep adding schools, it will work eventually.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Conferences are not looking to add schools to increase the number of schools in their conference or solidify geographies, but they are looking to brands that can help drive their conference network revenues when they become streaming services. There is a big difference in value creation to adding Texas and Oklahoma or Notre Dame to your conference than any other current or projected available school. You take Oklahoma and Texas out of the Big 12 and the value of the Big 12 media rights plummets to close to AAC levels. If you take Florida State and Clemson out of the ACC and the value of the ACC media rights plummet as well.

This may sound crazy, but if the ACC cut two of the lowest media value schools from their conference, their media rights value probably doesn't go down at all and they could increase payouts to the remaining schools by $5 to $6 million per year. Add in Notre Dame and maybe you can narrow the gap between the ACC and the Big 10 and SEC and keep Florida State and Clemson happy.

That is not exactly right. If everything was going a la carte for streaming, Netflix would be in big trouble. It's entire business model is predicated on being a single access point for customers to a load of content. Customers will sign up if there is enough content they want, but there needs to be a critical mass of content or customers will not sign up at all.

Conferences will be the same way. They need more content.

 

[billybud]

The ACC under Swofford was still all about basketball....The ACC does need for FSU and Miami to continue with their rebuild....and join Clemson at the top.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC under Swofford was still all about basketball....The ACC does need for FSU and Miami to continue with their rebuild....and join Clemson at the top.

This round of realignment is about NIL. It is an existential threat to the powerhouses in college football. Until now, the SEC, and a few other schools around the country (Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson) could dominate through cheating. They could win head to head battles for recruits and stockpile talent by paying more. NIL blew up that advantage. Everyone can pay their players now.

Imagine if Stanford or Northwestern or Georgetown decided to get serious about a sport with their alumni bases. They could crush every school in the SEC for any player they want. If Stanford's alums decided that they didn't want Auburn to have any more 4* and 5* recruits for football, Auburn would not have any more 4* and 5* recruits for football.

This is a fight for survival by the SEC. They need to crush everyone now, or they risk mediocrity or worse, and no network is paying $50 million a year per team for a mediocre Auburn to play a mediocre Alabama.

 

[Stinger92860]

They need more content.

How much content is too much? Who can spend 24 hours a day watching sports? It’s too much. I spend my time watching what is most important to me and I don’t watch much TV, I have other options. I rather be playing tennis, basketball, cycling, etc. I love the NY Giants, but I will not give up a beautiful Sunday inside watching a game, I never have. I’ll record and IF it’s a good game, I’ll fast forward through, but only if I have nothing else to do. Come December, I’ll watch a game. For the Yanks, I watch the summary replays on some days. I’ll watch UConn sports regularly, and would pay for access, but I’m not sitting down to watch the SEC, BIG, ACC, or PAC.

 

[UConnJim]

That is not exactly right. If everything was going a la carte for streaming, Netflix would be in big trouble. It's entire business model is predicated on being a single access point for customers to a load of content. Customers will sign up if there is enough content they want, but there needs to be a critical mass of content or customers will not sign up at all.

Conferences will be the same way. They need more content.

I didn't say everything is going ala carte streaming, but I do believe you will see conference streaming networks for some content similar to how conference cable networks work now. You want your fans to buy the streaming conference network so they can see the 1 or 2 football games and 5 to 10 basketball games that are streamed. I believe we will have some big streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Amazon, Peacock,... and then some mid tier streaming services and some sport/team specific streaming services. I do think most big college football games in the future will be on some sort of bigger streaming service or on a major network although the delivery may be different than today.

Think about this, you could set up your conference streaming service so that fans select the team they follow and the profits get allocated based on the number of fans following your team.

 

[billybud]

Nelson...

SEC fans are far more passionate about their football than most...

Folks watch games that interest them...and college football does....392 games in 2019 that averaged 1.8 million viewers.

33 regular season games in 2019 had more than 5 million viewers...

Folks tune in for the brand games.

 

[Vowelguy]

This may be one of the greatest tweets ever.

 

[Cleanface]

OMG my favorite topic has reemerged, and ye ol' Boneyard is at it again. Good to be back.

ACC schools are locked into GOR until 2036. They aren't an option for B1G or SEC, unless everything explodes. If it did explode UNC and UVA would be the B1G prime targets, of course. I also don't think B1G would poach PAC. It's too rabbit hole. The B1G and PAC are simpatico and have been for 100 years. Could it happen?!? Of course! Who the hell knows. Realistically speaking;

Best case for B1G - add white whale Notre Dame & AAU/basketball blueblood KU

B1G will pray for ND to fully commit to a conference and return home to their Midwest historical rivalries (with new east coast members RU and MD and JHU in Lax to satisfy their Atlantic coast desires). ND is already an affiliate member for B1G Hockey, and they will slide into B1G Lacrosse w another affiliate member Johns Hopkins (along w MD UM OSU PSU RU). In a world of Super Conf, B1G is the best fit for ND case closed. UM, OSU, PSU, WIS, MSU, NEB vs CLEM and FSU?? Please.

#2 Best Case - KU and OKST. OKST doesn't have the academics but they do have the athletics. Football and basketball are both stout. Wrestling blueblood to fit w B1G wrestling. Rabid fanbase. OKST is in the vein of U of Louisville Community College and WV. OKST >>>> IAST even with IAST being AAU. Why double up in IA when you could add OKST?

I've always had a soft spot for UConn being added bc I'm a PUR hoops guy, and who knows it might happen. B1G to 18 > ND, KU, OKST, UConn. That would be my preference.

***All opinions subject to change on an hourly basis

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson...

SEC fans are far more passionate about their football than most...

Folks watch games that interest them...and college football does....392 games in 2019 that averaged 1.8 million viewers.

33 regular season games in 2019 had more than 5 million viewers...

Folks tune in for the brand games.

SEC also had the best product, because they were willing to do what it took to get the top talent, even if that meant cheating. In the future, 5* recruits will go to the highest bidders. I am sure the fact that Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd are both going to gross over $1MM in the next 12 months is scaring the out of the SEC coaches. How will they keep their control of the talent if players can make money at any school?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Notre Dame is tied up in the same GOR for non-football that every other ACC school is.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I almost feel like we need a separate thread to dance on the graves of the Big 12 leftovers.

 

[Cleanface]

Notre Dame is tied up in the same GOR for non-football that every other ACC school is.

Are they?? I wasn't sure how that worked RE ND and their "affiliation". Wouldn't surprise me if they had some language added RE them joining another non-ACC conf fully for football. Guess we'll see.

Oh, and I do think there's an outside chance B1G contacts Mizzou (or vice versa) bc Mizzou wanted B1G first in 2012 or whenever the B1G picked NEB instead. Mizzou flirtation w B1G was what set the ball rolling for CO, A&M, NEB, Mizz. They might not want to play along w TX again and flip to B1G. Just not sure B1G would even pursue them.

 

[UConnJim]

Notre Dame is tied up in the same GOR for non-football that every other ACC school is.

Yes, but the financial obligation for non-football is not that high. The issue I see for ND is the agreement that if they joined a conference for football before 2036, it would be the ACC. Who knows what that contract actually looks like.

 

[bendm]

Customers will sign up if there is enough content they want, but there needs to be a critical mass of content or customers will not sign up at all.

Conferences will be the same way. They need more content.

causal fans yes but this is out of whack with everything i've read re where digital streaming is going. Eventually there will be ~30 schools that Amazon and Google and Facebook et al will divvy up among each other and carry on their respective streaming services, each requiring a subscription, and those fans will pony up. They aren't going to carry K state games for the extra content.

“We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus.
“Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle.
"We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams."

Conference re-alignment will come - shaped by tech, not TV

College football fans are likely to wake up to an entirely new world in the coming decade, perhaps with or without current conferences, as TV rights begin to expire in 2023.

247sports.com

*Most likely to make the 'Big Dog' list, (according to Top Programs by Value - WSJ ):

In order: Ohio State; Texas; Oklahoma; Alabama; Michigan; Notre Dame; Georgia; Tennessee; Auburn; Florida; Penn State; Texas A&M; Nebraska; South Carolina; Iowa; Arkansas; Wisconsin; Washington; Florida State; Oregon; Michigan State; Mississippi; Clemson; Southern California; Arizona State; UCLA.

 

[billybud]

I think that is right....

causal fans yes but this is out of whack with everything i've read re where digital streaming is going. Eventually there will be ~30 schools that Amazon and Google and Facebook et al will divvy up among each other and carry on their respective streaming services, each requiring a subscription, and those fans will pony up. They aren't going to carry K state games for the extra content.

“We’re still seven or eight years away,” he said, “but if we had to restructure the landscape today, we would not start by negotiating with a conference. We don’t care about the SEC, Big 12 of Big 10 as a whole. In our opinion, those entities are not our focus.
“Instead, we would want to identify 30 or 40 teams that command the biggest audience. That may be by reputation or location, but generally we all know that there are members in every one of these conferences that frankly don’t move the needle.
"We would not want to pay for broadcast rights for a team with a fraction of the audience when we could use most of our available cash to tie down high profile teams."

Conference re-alignment will come - shaped by tech, not TV

College football fans are likely to wake up to an entirely new world in the coming decade, perhaps with or without current conferences, as TV rights begin to expire in 2023.

247sports.com

*Most likely to make the 'Big Dog' list, (according to Top Programs by Value - WSJ ):

In order: Ohio State; Texas; Oklahoma; Alabama; Michigan; Notre Dame; Georgia; Tennessee; Auburn; Florida; Penn State; Texas A&M; Nebraska; South Carolina; Iowa; Arkansas; Wisconsin; Washington; Florida State; Oregon; Michigan State; Mississippi; Clemson; Southern California; Arizona State; UCLA.

I think that is right and where the breakaway was always heading...a split between needle movers and non...the Vandy's, Wakes, etc will be out.

 

[huskymedic]