Teams/programs with something to prove this season

[alexrgct]

Who are the teams with the most to prove this upcoming WCBB season? My thoughts (in no particular order):

Tennessee

Historically, Tennessee has been a program where championships are the expectation. I don't think too many folks outside of the Volunteer State think the LVs are headed in that direction in 2012-13, and that raises a lot of interesting questions. What kind of program does Tennessee want to be? Assuming it wants to continue being championship-caliber, how long does Holly have to prove she can get it there? Will the fanbase be understanding and patient through this transition period, or will all the team hear about be when will they win #9? A lot of those questions will be answered this season. If the LVs play consistently (something they didn't do last season) and to their abilities (ditto), I'll think Holly's on the right track. This will be a fascinating season in Knoxville.

Louisville

Jeff Walz came to Louisville as a golden boy. He's credited with helping Angel focus her talents en route to bringing Louisville to the national championship game in 2009. But here's the thing- Louisville hasn't gotten it done since. Through three years of the 2010s, they've barely registered a blip: not a single top four seed, one Sweet 16 run. Jeff Walz and/or Louisville fans will be quick to bring up post-Angel transition, injuries, etc., but this year is put up or shut up time. Otherwise, they're danger of being overshadowed by Kentucky's WBB program in their own state...if they're not already. Speaking of...

...Kentucky

Kentucky has a lot to lose all of a sudden. The Elite Eight run in 2010 was a bit of a surprise. The 2012 run was shaky at times, but ultimately they got there and gave UConn a bit of a scare in the first half. Now they're the clear favorites in the SEC (something they didn't handle well last year), and anything short of a conference championship and another run to at least the Elite Eight will be a disappointment. Can Kentucky handle the spotlight and be that kind of consistent top 10 program they look to be? Time will tell.

Notre Dame

After 2001, ND went largely AWOL for nine years before coming back strong this past few. Muffet has parlayed recent success into recruiting success. Can she then parlay that success into consistent results and challenge UConn on a regular basis going forward? Certainly, ND is nt expected to beat UConn next season, but how they compete against UConn and others may be a sign of things to come.

LSU

Nikki Caldwell is attractive and likable. She did some solid things at UCLA, but didn't stay long enough for it to be clear just how impressive that was (understandable given the raise LSU offered). In her first season at LSU, the Tigers were solid but unspectacular, ultimately losing at home in the second round of the NCAA tourney a week or so after Caldwell give birth. Now is the time for LSU to take another step forward. Nikki needs to prove she's worth 900K a year. I honestly think that investment was a bit of a gamble on LSU's part, and I'm not convinced it's going to pay off.

Duke

I said this in another thread, but this is a big year for Duke. Under Coach P, Duke has continued to recruit well and stay a top 5-10 program, but they're half a level below where they were with Gail at the helm. Under Coach G, Duke made multiple Final Fours and went to two championship games. They were the #3 program of the 2000s. This is definitely a season where Duke's goals should be a #1 seed (something they haven't had since 2009, when they were promptly upset in the second round) and a trip to the Final Four (somewhere they haven't been since 2006). They've got the talent- now it's time to deliver. And if they lose to UConn or Baylor, so be it, but they should at least be competitive.

Maryland

Speaking of 2006, Brenda Frese has been living off that season. Since then, Maryland has underachieved in the tourney several times. Even last year, where the Terps advanced according to where they'd be expected to given their seed, they looked shaky getting there. They struggled against A&M and Louisville before embarrassing themselves against Notre Dame. Brenda earns close to a million dollars per year, and for that, the Terps should have made the Final Four more than once during her tenure. This year is a golden opportunity to seize that last #1 seed (assuming Baylor, UConn, and Duke live up to their preseason expectations and grab the other three) and have a good chance to make it to New Orleans.

Who do you think has the most to prove?

 

[Wonkster]

.
The Twerps. They've been faking it longer than Louisville.

I hope Duke buries them this year. I mean, obliterates them to the point where Brenda is offered a pay cut.

 

[alexrgct]

Oh another school: USC (Southern, Cal, not South Carolina). They've been getting some good talent lately. Time to start winning with it.

 

[UConnCat]

Great post alex. For me it's a toss-up between Louisville and Duke for the reasons you stated. I'd add that I think Louisville and Jeff need to prove something in recruiting as well. Louisville's 2012 class didn't make Hoopgurlz's top 30 and it just lost two ranked 2013 recruits to its in-state rival Kentucky. Louisville is in Russell's final 2 and is in the running for Henderson, Chong and at least one other 2013 recruit. Maybe Walz is feeling some pressure himself as he had to know the billboard near Russell's home is considered an NCAA (secondary) violation and he did it anyway. He needs Russell, perhaps even more than Tennessee does.

 

[EricLA]

My $.02 on the teams you mentioned...

Tennessee - as much as i'd love to see them fall off the face of the earth, as long as they continue to get top 10 talent, that will never happen. The problem for them is that they will probably never win another NC unless they can nab at least 2 players on the roster at the same time who are rated 98 or above, to go along with other top 10 and top 20 talent. If they land Russell and Davis, or Russell and Turner from the following year, that would put them right there. I think the fans will give Holly a rather long leash as long a they are getting top talent and end up percolating in the top 10.

L'ville - I hate to say it but i think a ton depends on whether or not they land Russell. Something strange is going on there - they have an immensely likable coach who was credited with doing great things at Maryland AND he managed to snag one of the best Asst Coach recruiters in the nation in Sam Williams. And they have the YUM center which apparently is one of the best facilities in the nation. There's no reason for them not to be achieving greater recruiting success...

LSU - I'm not really sure what Caldwell has accomplished. She was at UCLA for 3 years, had a successful 3rd season going 27-4, but did that with other coaches' recruits. Who did she land of note? Last year the team she recruited for the prior 3 years went 14-16 under the new head coach. you could argue that she did fine with the talent that was there, but did such a poor job of recruiting that she left the program in shambles. She gets a LSU program that already has Krystal Forthan on the roster, and she was able to recruit top 25 Danielle Ballard from 2012, but I've not seen anything that impresses me so far. She needs at least a couple top 20 kids from 2013 to keep LSU relevant going forward.

Duke - for all the issues that Duke has had in losing Stafford-Odom to UNC and Williams to L'ville, Duke continues to rake in the recruits. Having said that, the class of 2012 mostly had the groundwork laid by one or both of the assts who left. It remains to be seen how well McCallie can recruit without those 2...

Maryland seems to have fallen off a bit, but suddenly seemed to come from nowhere and became a top 5 team last year. They still have Alyssa Thomas and landed Malina Howard from 2012 so i think they will stay near the top of the ACC and in the top 10.

I think ND and Kentucky are doing just fine. ND has been recruiting really well, in spite of losing Howard to maryland. However Kentucky landed top 25 Goss in 2011, and no one of note (4-star Thompson of 2012). They need a big haul from 2013...

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Maryland, yuck. Recruits well, lots of talent, game plan sometimes good, sometimes not-so-good. Don't really like rah-rah coaches. But I don't think she's on a hot seat, or anything like that.

Louisville, I know UConn fans like Walz, RU fans respect him, but one of our fans saw him in the lobby of a New Brunswick hotel and said he was really, really nasty to the hotel staff. A hotel that handles virtually every team that comes to Rutgers, most of their fans and all the Rutgers teams when the dorms are closed. The fan said he/she lost a lot of respect for him because he was just so unpleasant. Wonder how that translates otherwise?

Of all of them, I think LSU has the most to prove - Caldwell has yet to prove it.

 

[stwainfan]

For Tennessee I see this.
With Ariel and Draya the point guard is covered.
The post players are smaller but more athletic.
Graves will be a force. I think Burdick will have a real good year.
This team has a lot of talent and potential.

 

[doggydaddy]

For Tennessee I see this.
With Ariel and Draya the point guard is covered.
The post players are smaller but more athletic.
Graves will be a force. I think Burdick will have a real good year.
This team has a lot of talent and potential.

If you mean you have two players that can play point, then it's covered. But Massingale hasn't proven she can defend or shoot. I do love her playmaking skills though. Carter is a great athlete, but still a freshman point guard. She will struggle as most freshman points do, especially coming off an injury.

You really think that your returning posts, Harrison, Jones, Graves and Burdick are more athletic than Johnson (over the top athlete), Baugh and Stricklen?

Graves was very good from what I saw in the U18 games. But a force? As a freshman? Not happening. Burdick was an underachiever as a freshman. She had her moments, but she needs to do a lot more this year.

We will see how much talent they have and what their potential is, but you are the TonyC of Tennessee.

 

[alexrgct]

If you mean you have two players that can play point, then it's covered. But Massingale hasn't proven she can defend or shoot. I do love her playmaking skills though. Carter is a great athlete, but still a freshman point guard. She will struggle as most freshman points do, especially coming off an injury.

You really think that your returning posts, Harrison, Jones, Graves and Burdick are more athletic than Johnson (over the top athlete), Baugh and Stricklen?

Graves was very good from what I saw in the U18 games. But a force? As a freshman? Not happening. Burdick was an underachiever as a freshman. She had her moments, but she needs to do a lot more this year.

We will see how much talent they have and what their potential is, but you are the TonyC of Tennessee.

Equal in terms of powers of optimism perhaps, but superior in terms of brevity.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I'm going to add Texas A&M to the list of schools that have something to prove. First they are moving to the SEC and will they have the same level or more success that they had in the Big 12 . They had a great recruiting class last year because of the number of players signed. Will the players live up to their expectations and now that they don't have to face Baylor will they win a Conference Championship. If they are successful they should be able to reach the Elite 8 game. Don't see them getting to the Final Four.

California is another school that has something to prove. The recruiting class for Call for 2011 was 5th ranked. Last year they were 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16. Do they have enough to compete with Stanford for the PAC 12 Championship and make it to the Elite 8. I don't think so, but they might make it interesting.

 

[Scotter]

Why exactly is Jeff Walz immensely likeable?

L'ville - I hate to say it but i think a ton depends on whether or not they land Russell. Something strange is going on there - they have an immensely likable coach who was credited with doing great things at Maryland AND he managed to snag one of the best Asst Coach recruiters in the nation in Sam Williams. And they have the YUM center which apparently is one of the best facilities in the nation. There's no reason for them not to be achieving greater recruiting success...

 

[dtbtbtb]

For Tennessee I see this.
With Ariel and Draya the point guard is covered.
The post players are smaller but more athletic.
Graves will be a force. I think Burdick will have a real good year.
This team has a lot of talent and potential.

Stwainfan, I'm curious: as a TN fan what are your expectations from the coming season as in, what will be considered by you a good season and what will be considered a disappointing season?

As a UConn fan, anything below meeting Baylor (or any any other team) at the finals will be disappointing for the coming season.

 

[stwainfan]

Stwainfan, I'm curious: as a TN fan what are your expectations from the coming season as in, what will be considered by you a good season and what will be considered a disappointing season?

As a UConn fan, anything below meeting Baylor (or any any other team) at the finals will be disappointing for the coming season.

I don't think any fan or player expects anything less. Then what has been expected for many years. A final four and a championship. This years team has the talent to reach final four. I expect around 30 wins over all.

 

[doggydaddy]

I don't think any fan or player expects anything less. Then what has been expected for many years. A final four and a championship. This years team has the talent to reach final four. I expect around 30 wins over all.

Another short but sweet TonyC type post.

Lose 5 starters, play almost all freshman and sophs and expect 30 wins and a final 4.

Good luck with that.

 

[Wonkster]

Why exactly is Jeff Walz immensely likeable?

Because he's beefy?

 

[stwainfan]

If you mean you have two players that can play point, then it's covered. But Massingale hasn't proven she can defend or shoot. I do love her playmaking skills though. Carter is a great athlete, but still a freshman point guard. She will struggle as most freshman points do, especially coming off an injury.

You really think that your returning posts, Harrison, Jones, Graves and Burdick are more athletic than Johnson (over the top athlete), Baugh and Stricklen?

Graves was very good from what I saw in the U18 games. But a force? As a freshman? Not happening. Burdick was an underachiever as a freshman. She had her moments, but she needs to do a lot more this year.

We will see how much talent they have and what their potential is, but you are the TonyC of Tennessee.

I ment as post smaller and more athletic as then normal. Yes I think Glory may be the best pure athlete to ever play at Tennessee. Ariel I am sure will be better. Same with Burdick she played behind Stricklen last year. Spani if she stays healthy she is the best 3 point shooter on the team.

 

[UConnCat]

Why exactly is Jeff Walz immensely likeable?

I've been trying to figure that out as well. Surely it isn't his sideline demeanor. He whines more than any coach in WCBB.

 

[rjp172]

The self deprecation in regards to his stutter has seemed endearing. On the other hand, my niece can't stand to watch him because of what she deems his inability to purchase a proper fitting dress-shirt. Go figure. I think he has a Geno-esque quality of saying what he thinks.

 

[stwainfan]

Another short but sweet TonyC type post.

Lose 5 starters, play almost all freshman and sophs and expect 30 wins and a final 4.

Good luck with that.

That's what has been expected for a long time. Why would it change now? The only thing I have heard Holly say as for change. Is we need to be more athletic team. Let's look at this years team. There is Simmons, Spani and Massengale all have started a good amount. So there is some starting experience.

 

[msf22b]

I would add Rutgers to the list. C.Viv has to prove that she's relevent.

 

[Bayareahusky]

What is with the talk with TN and the Final Four? Wow! I can think of half a dozen teams with clearly better personnel than the LVs..... if they are to do well and overperform, Burdick has to play like a beast.

 

[doggydaddy]

I ment as post smaller and more athletic as then normal. Yes I think Glory may be the best pure athlete to ever play at Tennessee. Ariel I am sure will be better. Same with Burdick she played behind Stricklen last year. Spani if she stays healthy she is the best 3 point shooter on the team.

I don't think you know what you meant. You said the posts were smaller and more athletic. Now, I agree...smaller than what is normal for Tennessee. Not more athletic.

Massingale will certainly be better. Most freshman improve after one year. But how much better remains to be seen.

Burdick was behind both Stricklen and Johnson. But the #4 recruit usually gets more minutes and does more with them.

Healthy is a big IF for Spani. I hope she has an injury free season for sure!

 

[doggydaddy]

That's what has been expected for a long time. Why would it change now? The only thing I have heard Holly say as for change. Is we need to be more athletic team. Let's look at this years team. There is Simmons, Spani and Massengale all have started a good amount. So there is some starting experience.

Well, maybe reality might come into play.

Simmons and Massengale both started early in the season and then were benched for less talented seniors. I find that to be an issue.

 

[UCONNfan1]

I've been trying to figure that out as well. Surely it isn't his sideline demeanor. He whines more than any coach in WCBB.

I've always thought Walz was one of the good guys and had a good relationship with other coaches including Geno. And I thought recruits generally liked him. Mitchell is another one who I thought came across really well with recruits.

 

[stwainfan]

I don't think you know what you meant. You said the posts were smaller and more athletic. Now, I agree...smaller than what is normal for Tennessee. Not more athletic.

Massingale will certainly be better. Most freshman improve after one year. But how much better remains to be seen.
Burdick was behind both Stricklen and Johnson. But the #4 recruit usually gets more minutes and does more with them.

Healthy is a big IF for Spani. I hope she has an injury free season for sure!

One more point about Burdick. How many players play behind #2and #4 draft picks?