To reiterate the original point of the thread...
We just got through the toughest 3 game stretch of the schedule (@Nova, home Marq, @Xavier). We went an expected, but not amazing 1-2.
The next 4 games are resume building opportunities which will be difficult, but all winnable games. These are the more winnable Q1 and high end Q2 games for us, the real meat of the schedule: @SJU, H-Seton Hall, H-Xavier, H-Nova. We will be favored for sure in 3 of the 4 and the one where we may be an underdog is a home game (Villanova). 3-1 in these four gets us to 5-4 record for this nine game gauntlet we're in. The models said most likely outcome of that stretch was between 5 and 6 wins, so we're still on track for the expected results of a team around 20th in the country. We can make up for the Creighton loss by sweeping these 4 to get to 6 wins and overachieve for the stretch.
However, we're only expected to win between 2 and 3 of these games by the models due to variability of being small favorites and the Nova game being a tossup. So stealing the road win in NYC is pretty huge as it'll be very difficult to go 3-0 against those 3 teams, considering they've all beaten us (but all on road before and all these will be home).
Then we finish with 3 extremely winnable games (any less than 2-1 in the last 3 will be a disaster and I think we'll get all 3).
6-1 to finish is the goal. 7-0 the dream (only like a 6% chance). 5-2 the most likely but still okay outcome. 4-3 slightly disappointing. 3-4 or worse a disaster.
