Take a breath. | Page 3 | The Boneyard
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Take a breath.

UConn is 1-9 the last two seasons winning games outright when a Vegas underdog. (With 2019 included the number improves 5-18 )
 
This wasn't a bad loss at all. Some people think this team is supposed to go undefeated for some strange reason. Every loss is about bad coaching, so damn surreal.
 
To reiterate the original point of the thread...

We just got through the toughest 3 game stretch of the schedule (@Nova, home Marq, @Xavier). We went an expected, but not amazing 1-2.

The next 4 games are resume building opportunities which will be difficult, but all winnable games. These are the more winnable Q1 and high end Q2 games for us, the real meat of the schedule: @SJU, H-Seton Hall, H-Xavier, H-Nova. We will be favored for sure in 3 of the 4 and the one where we may be an underdog is a home game (Villanova). 3-1 in these four gets us to 5-4 record for this nine game gauntlet we're in. The models said most likely outcome of that stretch was between 5 and 6 wins, so we're still on track for the expected results of a team around 20th in the country. We can make up for the Creighton loss by sweeping these 4 to get to 6 wins and overachieve for the stretch.

However, we're only expected to win between 2 and 3 of these games by the models due to variability of being small favorites and the Nova game being a tossup. So stealing the road win in NYC is pretty huge as it'll be very difficult to go 3-0 against those 3 teams, considering they've all beaten us (but all on road before and all these will be home).

Then we finish with 3 extremely winnable games (any less than 2-1 in the last 3 will be a disaster and I think we'll get all 3).

6-1 to finish is the goal. 7-0 the dream (only like a 6% chance). 5-2 the most likely but still okay outcome. 4-3 slightly disappointing. 3-4 or worse a disaster.
 
auror said:
To reiterate the original point of the thread...

We just got through the toughest 3 game stretch of the schedule (@Nova, home Marq, @Xavier). We went an expected, but not amazing 1-2.

The next 4 games are resume building opportunities which will be difficult, but all winnable games. These are the more winnable Q1 and high end Q2 games for us, the real meat of the schedule: @SJU, H-Seton Hall, H-Xavier, H-Nova. We will be favored for sure in 3 of the 4 and the one where we may be an underdog is a home game (Villanova). 3-1 in these four gets us to 5-4 record for this nine game gauntlet we're in. The models said most likely outcome of that stretch was between 5 and 6 wins, so we're still on track for the expected results of a team around 20th in the country. We can make up for the Creighton loss by sweeping these 4 to get to 6 wins and overachieve for the stretch.

However, we're only expected to win between 2 and 3 of these games by the models due to variability of being small favorites and the Nova game being a tossup. So stealing the road win in NYC is pretty huge as it'll be very difficult to go 3-0 against those 3 teams, considering they've all beaten us (but all on road before and all these will be home).

Then we finish with 3 extremely winnable games (any less than 2-1 in the last 3 will be a disaster and I think we'll get all 3).

6-1 to finish is the goal. 7-0 the dream (only like a 6% chance). 5-2 the most likely but still okay outcome. 4-3 slightly disappointing. 3-4 or worse a disaster.
Expand ...
I don't see 5-2 as likely but certainly possible. @ St John's, @Creighton and S Hall, Xavier, Nova at home are all pretty close to being toss-ups imo. Only will be real favorites in DePaul home game and @ G'Town.

I would take 4-3 since it will mean at least 2 more quality wins but less than 4 wins is a disaster like you say to close the season.
 
Last edited:
Hi-Low said:
I don't see 5-2 as likely but certainly possible. @ St John's, @Creighton and S Hall, Xavier, Nova at home are all pretty close to being toss-ups imo. Only will be real favorites in DePaul home game and @ G'Town.

I would take 4-3 since it will mean at least 2 more quality wins but less than 4 wins is a disaster like you say to close the season.
Expand ...
Yeah probability wording. It's "the most likely", but the spread on the outcomes is somewhat even between 4 and 6.
 
I took a deep breath. Didn't help since I still see UConn is 16-7 overall and 7-5 in the Big East. Weren't they expected to finish in the top 2 or 3 of the Big East? They still have another month so we'll see what happens.
 
HooperScooper said:
I took a deep breath. Didn't help since I still see UConn is 16-7 overall and 7-5 in the Big East. Weren't they expected to finish in the top 2 or 3 of the Big East? They still have another month so we'll see what happens.
Expand ...
They were expected to finish 2nd or 3rd in the Big East, and if you look at the standings you'll find that we're 0.5 games out of 3rd with 1 game in hand. So win tomorrow like we should and we're exactly where we should be. I'd suggest taking another deep breath
 
navery12 said:
They were expected to finish 2nd or 3rd in the Big East, and if you look at the standings you'll find that we're 0.5 games out of 3rd with 1 game in hand. So win tomorrow like we should and we're exactly where we should be. I'd suggest taking another deep breath
Expand ...
Tried it. Still no change. :)
 
HooperScooper said:
I took a deep breath. Didn't help since I still see UConn is 16-7 overall and 7-5 in the Big East. Weren't they expected to finish in the top 2 or 3 of the Big East? They still have another month so we'll see what happens.
Expand ...
They were ranked preseason 24, they are currently 24, wake up, this wasn’t a top 10 team preseason and is right where people expected them to be.
 
HeGotGame said:
They were ranked preseason 24, they are currently 24, wake up, this wasn’t a top 10 team preseason and is right where people expected them to be.
Expand ...
I will wake up, take a deep breath, and adjust my expectations.
 
I'm gonna say we beat the Johnnies, L vs SH, L vs X, L vs Nova, W vs GTown, L vs Creighton, and finish with a W vs DePaul. That would put us at 19-11, which unfortunately sounds about right to me. Gotta show up big for the BE tourney.
 
auror said:
To reiterate the original point of the thread...

We just got through the toughest 3 game stretch of the schedule (@Nova, home Marq, @Xavier). We went an expected, but not amazing 1-2.

The next 4 games are resume building opportunities which will be difficult, but all winnable games. These are the more winnable Q1 and high end Q2 games for us, the real meat of the schedule: @SJU, H-Seton Hall, H-Xavier, H-Nova. We will be favored for sure in 3 of the 4 and the one where we may be an underdog is a home game (Villanova). 3-1 in these four gets us to 5-4 record for this nine game gauntlet we're in. The models said most likely outcome of that stretch was between 5 and 6 wins, so we're still on track for the expected results of a team around 20th in the country. We can make up for the Creighton loss by sweeping these 4 to get to 6 wins and overachieve for the stretch.

However, we're only expected to win between 2 and 3 of these games by the models due to variability of being small favorites and the Nova game being a tossup. So stealing the road win in NYC is pretty huge as it'll be very difficult to go 3-0 against those 3 teams, considering they've all beaten us (but all on road before and all these will be home).

Then we finish with 3 extremely winnable games (any less than 2-1 in the last 3 will be a disaster and I think we'll get all 3).

6-1 to finish is the goal. 7-0 the dream (only like a 6% chance). 5-2 the most likely but still okay outcome. 4-3 slightly disappointing. 3-4 or worse a disaster.
Expand ...
3-0 so far in this huge resume stretch. 5-3 currently in the tough 9 game stretch with Nova at home looming as the big win cherry to really boost us into the top 4 protected seed discussion.

Games remaining:
  • 1 very tough game (home #5 Nova)
  • 1 tough road game (@ #66 Creighton, Q1, will be a sellout 17k+ fans)
  • 2 gimmes left (@Gtown, H-Depaul, both Q3, should be double digit favorites in each)..

Nova game likely to be a pick'em or maybe Nova -1. Creighton similar, but us the 1 point favorite or so.

Think we have to win out to get to the 4 seed unless we win the BET.
 
That Guy said:
I'm gonna say we beat the Johnnies, L vs SH, L vs X, L vs Nova, W vs GTown, L vs Creighton, and finish with a W vs DePaul. That would put us at 19-11, which unfortunately sounds about right to me. Gotta show up big for the BE tourney.
Expand ...
Wow can’t believe people actually say they support this team and spew garbage predictions like this. It’s like these people want to see us lose
 
auror said:
3-0 so far in this huge resume stretch. 5-3 currently in the tough 9 game stretch with Nova at home looming as the big win cherry to really boost us into the top 4 protected seed discussion.

Games remaining:
  • 1 very tough game (home #5 Nova)
  • 1 tough road game (@ #66 Creighton, Q1, will be a sellout 17k+ fans)
  • 2 gimmes left (@Gtown, H-Depaul, both Q3, should be double digit favorites in each)..

Nova game likely to be a pick'em or maybe Nova -1. Creighton similar, but us the 1 point favorite or so.

Think we have to win out to get to the 4 seed unless we win the BET.
Expand ...

I won’t touch it no matter what because I need to believe in my team, but anything less than nova -3 will see 90% of public on nova.
 
That Guy said:
Garbage predictions? Did you see us play before this set of games? For the record, I'm still not convinced of anything from this year's team.
Expand ...
Based on what we've seen there is a wide range possibilities.
 
That Guy said:
Garbage predictions? Did you see us play before this set of games? For the record, I'm still not convinced of anything from this year's team.
Expand ...
Get a clue about just how even 3/4 of the teams are in this league. Then look around the country and see how other teams are doing. Auburn lost to Florida today. So unrealistic about the competition.
 
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