Sunday (3/24) games: NCAA 2nd round

[CompSci87]

edit--oops, Stanford-BYU is in its own time slot; too late for most East Coasters probably

Pac-12 After Dark hits women's basketball now too. I like having our own slot, though, really.

 

[GDawg]

States D is not what is was last year, although they potentially can be as potent offensively or moreso but....

Miss St losing Bibby IMO dramatically impacts them as they hit the elite 8 stage and further. I still think the path State has they are more than capable of making that final four. But losing the caliber player Bibby is, is a big time loss. She was on a whole other level this year, offensively and defensively.


Not as good as last years but still very good. Up to AEH and Scott to step up if they want to go really far in this tournament.

No doubt. We're missing that other 3 point threat. Clemson surrounded Teira with 3 people most of the night. You need ONE more 3 pt threat in case AEH or Breamber Scott is having an off night. Plus it allows you to balance the floor with shooters, like last year. Couldn't help off Blair, Ro, Victoria or Morgan last year. People dare Jazz and Jordan to shoot.

And for the record, Plebe, some of these MSU fans on here puffing out their chest like we invented women's basketball need to heed my advice...."Quit acting like Ole Miss baseball fans!" They'll know what that means.

 

[GDawg]

Yeah but all their fans on this board let us know that didn't count because they didn't play very well and Oregon just got lucky.

Not me. Can I be labled "the sane" MSU fan? I am the one who had us 5th behind Baylor, ND, UConn, and Louisville. Making the Final Four would be icing on the cake for me this year. This team is Elite 8 and MAYBE Final Four. That's our ceiling.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Not me. Can I be labled "the sane" MSU fan? I am the one who had us 5th behind Baylor, ND, UConn, and Louisville. Making the Final Four would be icing on the cake for me this year. This team is Elite 8 and MAYBE Final Four. That's our ceiling.

Ha, sorry, I should have said "several of their fans" rather than "all."

 

[jonson]

Oregon may survive this game, but I'm very concerned about their prospects for the rest of the tournament if they don't get Taylor Chavez back from injury.

Oregon hasn't looked anywhere near the same team that blew out Stanford in early February, which just also happens to be the last full game that Chavez played in.

Without her, their backcourt has absolutely no depth. When Yaeger is your first guard off the bench, you're in trouble.

I agree. Her contributions, whatever her stats, were crucial (the game we were lucky to win last November is one example), and she has been sorely missed since the Stanford game. The fact that Hebard injured her knee (and continues to be less than 100%) in the very next game hasn't helped as well. Chavez is walking without a limp or any sort of support that I can see, so perhaps she will be back by next weekend. If not, I think Oregon's chances of going forward will have taken a major hit.

I realize this doesn't mean anything, but the Ducks have played all of the remaining teams in their bracket: 3 in November/December (Syracuse, South Dakota State, and MST) and another (Arizona State x 2) during the Pac 12 season. I assume that's something of a rarity.

 

[Jmsdawg]

You think Miss State is better than ND and Louisville

Do you think this year’s MSU team is better than last year’s? I don’t.

still to be answered but I think this team has the potential to win the NC. As for ND/Louisville, I see no chance that MSST plays Louisville and if we do play ND it will be for the NC!

 

[Plebe]

Dang, Indiana player who is from Portland and has a bunch of friends and family at the game just limped off the court. Hate to see that.

edit--Yeaney

I went back and watched the play. I got the impression that she tore her Achilles. So sad to see that.

Bendu Yeaney was a major reason why Indiana surged late in the season and were able to snag a bid. I wish her a speedy recovery.

 

[MSUFan2003]

still to be answered but I think this team has the potential to win the NC. As for ND/Louisville, I see no chance that MSST plays Louisville and if we do play ND it will be for the NC!

If we play ND, they will expose how bad our transition D is. Our full court press will become a liability against better teams.

 

[Jmsdawg]

If we play ND, they will expose how bad our transition D is. Our full court press will become a liability against better teams.

You may be correct, I remember Marquette transition game and that gave us fits. Both our losses have been to teams that were hot for long range and I suspect we will hang well with ND unless they are hitting from outside. The team I think would give us problems is UConn because they have the transition and outside shooting. However, My dream match for the NC is UConn vs MSST, my two favorite teams.

 

[Plebe]

You may be correct, I remember Marquette transition game and that gave us fits. Both our losses have been to teams that were hot for long range and I suspect we will hang well with ND unless they are hitting from outside. The team I think would give us problems is UConn because they have the transition and outside shooting. However, My dream match for the NC is UConn vs MSST, my two favorite teams.

Uh, Oregon was 5 of 12 from 3 in the MSU game. That doesn't qualify as hot.

 

[triaddukefan]

Well Clemson lost to Miss State by 24..... both Louisville and Notre Dame beat them worse

 

[nwhoopfan]

I went back and watched the play. I got the impression that she tore her Achilles. So sad to see that.

Bendu Yeaney was a major reason why Indiana surged late in the season and were able to snag a bid. I wish her a speedy recovery.

Yeah I saw her on the bench later w/ an ice bag wrapped around her ankle area. It was an odd looking, non contact injury. Seems like most of them are.

 

[NWHoopFan2]

Oregon may survive this game, but I'm very concerned about their prospects for the rest of the tournament if they don't get Taylor Chavez back from injury.

Oregon hasn't looked anywhere near the same team that blew out Stanford in early February, which just also happens to be the last full game that Chavez played in.

Without her, their backcourt has absolutely no depth. When Yaeger is your first guard off the bench, you're in trouble.

One slight correction. After the Stanford victory Chavez played in the next four games, two against Oregon State and then the weekend at home against UCLA and USC. It was in that last game that she was injured. I do agree with you that with her out we lose a lot in backcourt depth. But for the most part Oregon’s slump came from Hebard’s injury in the first Oregon State game.

 

[nwhoopfan]

But for the most part Oregon’s slump came from Hebard’s injury in the first Oregon State game.

I'll see your correction and raise you one. Hebard was injured in the second game, in Corvallis.

 

[NWHoopFan2]

I'll see your correction and raise you one. Hebard was injured in the second game, in Corvallis.

You are correct. I was just about to edit my post to correct that.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Lord knows they will never win anything in football or men's basketball.

I don't really care about men's basketball. I mean, I'll root for them to win but there are plenty of other sports to enjoy on our campus. Baseball, Women's BB, Men's Tennis, Catfishing, Disc Golf all threaten the national stage. And our Track and Field also seems to be trending up. I don't think our men's basketball lack of success is really relevant in the grand scheme of things; Duke can dominate that sport if they want.

If I'm correct we earned a #5 seed this year which is a step up and a small achievement considering we had a 10 year NCAA tournament drought so this was as good an improvement as any. I personally don't think we should have been #5, but it's that damn RPI. It's overrated, I tell ya.

And as for football? 1) We need a Dak Prescott #2. 2) We need to sustain that #1 ranked defense which one day could bring us past the threshold.

We had a brief stretch of pretty-good-ness, but ultimately stymied by Alabama too much. I think we'd have at least 3 Conference Championships if we played in another conference though, since 2014 (our breakout year).


...

 

[triaddukefan]

I don't really care about men's basketball. I mean, I'll root for them to win but there are plenty of other sports to enjoy on our campus. Baseball, Women's BB, Men's Tennis, Catfishing, Disc Golf all threaten the national stage. And our Track and Field also seems to be trending up. I don't think our men's basketball lack of success is really relevant in the grand scheme of things; Duke can dominate that sport if they want.

If I'm correct we earned a #5 seed this year which is a step up considering a 10 year NCAA tournament drought. I personally don't think we should have been #5, but it's that damn RPI. It's overrated, I tell ya.

And as for football? 1) We need a Dak Prescott #2. 2) We need to sustain that #1 ranked defense which one day could bring us past the threshold.

We had a brief stretch of pretty-good-ness, but ultimately stymied by Alabama too much. I think we'd have at least 3 Conference Championships if we played in the ACC though since 2014 (our breakout year).


...

Conference Championships in the ACC? Over Clemson?

 

[SimpleDawg]

Conference Championships in the ACC? Over Clemson?

Oh, my bad. I apologize. I forgot Clemson for some reason. But outside of Clemson, I think we're better than the rest of the ACC.

 

[LETTERL]

From the AP writeup of the Arizona State-Miami game:

Arizona State is now 4-0 against Miami, winning by 4, 2, 4 and 2 points.

That sounds like the makings of a great rivalry. I wonder if the two teams would consider meeting annually.

 

[GDawg]

From the AP writeup of the Arizona State-Miami game:

Arizona State is now 4-0 against Miami, winning by 4, 2, 4 and 2 points.

That sounds like the makings of a great rivalry. I wonder if the two teams would consider meeting annually.

Those two teams are a LONG distance apart. Pretty interesting that they've played that many times. Was that 4-0 this season or all-time?

 

[Jmsdawg]

Uh, Oregon was 5 of 12 from 3 in the MSU game. That doesn't qualify as hot.

That is over 40% which I consider pretty good.

 

[DaBball]

Well Clemson lost to Miss State by 24..... both Louisville and Notre Dame beat them worse

Both also lost to Miami, who couldn’t even beat an average at best Arizona State team. If we’re going to bring up Louisville, lets not forget they also trailed them in the fourth the second time.

Oregon beat Buffalo by 20, and UConn only won by 12. Does that make UO better?

 

[LoTrader]

Both also lost to Miami, who couldn’t even beat an average at best Arizona State team. If we’re going to bring up Louisville, lets not forget they also trailed them in the fourth the second time.

Oregon beat Buffalo by 20, and UConn only won by 12. Does that make UO better?

ASU, "average at best"? Are you serious?

 

[Plebe]

That is over 40% which I consider pretty good.

That's only 5 made 3's for an entire game. To write it off as "we lost because our opponent was red-hot from 3" is just revisionist history.

 

[DaBball]

ASU, "average at best"? Are you serious?

I watched them get thumped by a pretty bad Arizona team and was not nearly impressed. They beat Oregon State twice, Cal once, and K-State twice. Not that impressive a resume.

 

[Jmsdawg]

That's only 5 made 3's for an entire game. To write it off as "we lost because our opponent was red-hot from 3" is just revisionist history.

Did not say anything about why we lost. Just said common thread in our 2 losses was 3 point shooting and transition game. I believe we lost to a really good team playing at home. If we face that team in Portland we could get beat again but IMHO the team Oregon will face in Portland is vastly different than the team Oregon faced in December. Just how different is still to be determined.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Did not say anything about why we lost. Just said common thread in our 2 losses was 3 point shooting and transition game. I believe we lost to a really good team playing at home. If we face that team in Portland we could get beat again but IMHO the team Oregon will face in Portland is vastly different than the team Oregon faced in December. Just how different is still to be determined.

No one disputes that it'll be a close game, but I think Plebe's point is that 40% shooting is actually not great for Oregon - their season average is .419. And making 5 per game is literally half their average of 9.9 treys per game. So if anything, Oregon under-relied on its outside game to beat MSU. You probably should expect far worse in a rematch. Indeed, only 18% of Oregon's points came from behind the arc. I don't think you can credibly say the trey is what beat you in Eugene.

Rather, I think Oregon is a matchup problem for MSU on MSU's defensive end because most of Oregon's inside offense runs through pick and rolls and cuts inside, and while Hebard certainly can and does execute classic post back-to-basket moves to score layups (which McCowan can very effectively shut down), she doesn't have to - she and Sabally can both shoot effectively from the high post, and Cazorla, Boley, and Ionescu are all very good at moving to the basket and then making a swift pass to an open post player as the defense collapses. McCowan is not especially mobile, and stopping the Oregon pick and roll depends more on your guards than on your posts, so the question is whether Howard (when she's at the high post), Danberry, and Holmes can disrupt around the elbow. Last time, they didn't - Danberry fouled out, Howard fouled out, Ionescu went for 17-17 from the line, and Cazorla went 6-6 from the line. So if anything I'd say Oregon's stellar FT% and the pick and roll action along the lanes is what killed you - their guards were able to get inside and draw contact, and your guards didn't do a very good job stopping them. A lot of that is the result of pick and rolls to get inside and force fouls on the shot.

Ionescu actually had a bad game against y'all - she went 5-19 - but she's knows how to draw contact going to the hoop from the lane, and McCowan isn't going to save you from that. If I were Vic, I wouldn't be worrying about Hebard's layups or Oregon's shots from beyond the arc - I'd be worried about guarding the lanes. That's where Oregon dominated you last game.

 

[DaBball]

I think a lot of it depends on what version of McCowan we will see too. Will we see an aggressive one like we saw last night and last year against Oregon, or will she be giving half effort like their first meeting. Physically, she can dominate Ruthy, and she did so last year, but she was uninterested and didn’t want to be in Eugene the first game. Hebard did a good job guarding her, but McCowan can still be a force.

Both teams are also more than capable of losing their next matchups, too.

 

[Jmsdawg]

No one disputes that it'll be a close game, but I think Plebe's point is that 40% shooting is actually not great for Oregon - their season average is .419. And making 5 per game is literally half their average of 9.9 treys per game. So if anything, Oregon under-relied on its outside game to beat MSU. You probably should expect far worse in a rematch. Indeed, only 18% of Oregon's points came from behind the arc. I don't think you can credibly say the trey is what beat you in Eugene.

Rather, I think Oregon is a matchup problem for MSU on MSU's defensive end because most of Oregon's inside offense runs through pick and rolls and cuts inside, and while Hebard certainly can and does execute classic post back-to-basket moves to score layups (which McCowan can very effectively shut down), she doesn't have to - she and Sabally can both shoot effectively from the high post, and Cazorla, Boley, and Ionescu are all very good at moving to the basket and then making a swift pass to an open post player as the defense collapses. McCowan is not especially mobile, and stopping the Oregon pick and roll depends more on your guards than on your posts, so the question is whether Howard (when she's at the high post), Danberry, and Holmes can disrupt around the elbow. Last time, they didn't - Danberry fouled out, Howard fouled out, Ionescu went for 17-17 from the line, and Cazorla went 6-6 from the line. So if anything I'd say Oregon's stellar FT% and the pick and roll action along the lanes is what killed you - their guards were able to get inside and draw contact, and your guards didn't do a very good job stopping them. A lot of that is the result of pick and rolls to get inside and force fouls on the shot.

Ionescu actually had a bad game against y'all - she went 5-19 - but she's knows how to draw contact going to the hoop from the lane, and McCowan isn't going to save you from that. If I were Vic, I wouldn't be worrying about Hebard's layups or Oregon's shots from beyond the arc - I'd be worried about guarding the lanes. That's where Oregon dominated you last game.

Appreciate your analysis. Howard had a great game and McCowan had a terrible game. We had foul trouble throughout the game and our defense really was weak. Hopefully, from a MSST view, McCowan will at least have an average game and our defense, which I think has really improved, will slow Oregon offense down. I just hope that game happens, I expect a ran burner!

 

[MSUFan2003]

If I remember correctly, Oregon outscored is in the paint and out rebounded us. I think we lost the game on the defensive end. There are times when you can't play straight up man to man and run a full court press. The defense just wasn't working, but we never tried anything different.

We will see what happens if we play them again. It will depend on McCowan. Vic has shown he is willing to switch up defenses and call off the full court press since that time.