Starting point guard

[Cedar]

Your 1st paragraph I didn't have issue with. But I had asked a question to try to understand your previous post better.

It's your 2nd para. Am I correct to assume that you view the PG position as either/or but it can't be both Paige and Nika together for much time?

You’ll get no argument from me if you think the best 1/2/3 spots are Paige/Azzi/Caroline assuming all are healthy. I just question Caroline’s health if she can play day-today.

But my reply to you was implied - that if you felt they can’t play together then I would disagree. And if you felt Aubrey was better as a starter with Paige as the pg vs Nika as the pg and Paige as the SF then I would disagree. It just seems like you are closing the door for them playing together for significant minutes. Are you? If not, then no problem. I just happen to believe Nika at the pf with Paige at the SF is better than Paige ta pg and Aubrey at SF.

And you’re absolutely right, Paige is much better than Nika. No one should ever have an iota dispute for that.

I’m not sure why you have the impression that I think Nika and Paige cannot play together. They absolutely can play together. As I said in post #145: “They will have many opportunities to play together.”

A question mark for me is at the 3 position. Will Geno put Caroline in that position? Aubrey?

You said that you question Caroline’s health. I have the same question. I have concerns about her susceptibility to have concussions.

 

[MSGRET]

A healthy Paige will simply not allow anyone to take over her position as starting point guard for a champion UConn WBB Team!

Yet for the second half of her Freshman season, Nika took over as the PG and Paige was the SG. Geno stated that the team flowed better with Nika at the point.

 

[hoophuskee]

Good points. Now let's apply the same criteria to a comparison of Bueckers and Muhl at the point:

Paige is without a doubt far superior far superior to Nika Aubrey. And it's not close. Nika Aubrey can't shoot well. No matter what else she does, Paige's Offense at that spot is far far superior/way more offsets any impact Nika can overall produce.


Muhl and Griffin both contribute greatly. Both provide those "what else" things you decided to ignore when it came to Griffin but emphasize about Muhl.

The bottom line is that neither has yet shown the ability to be a consistent point producer and Geno will not want them on the floor together a lot for that reason. If either or both show better scoring this off-season or early in the regular season that will change everything.

Sure. but if Caroline can't start, then who starts? I'm not arguing with you that Paige isn't better than Nika. I'm arguing that you seem to have dismissed Nika completely. So - for argument preseason for fun purposes - who is it - Nika or Aubrey? It has to be one of them if Caroline can't start, so my disagreement with you (and others) has been that it seems you would give it to Aubrey. I wouldn't I give it Nika. IMO it's clear as of this moment it's Nika over Aubrey. And the reasons you and others give, for example as you mention above that Nika can't shoot I believe are wrong as well as others when they cite similar or other reasons. The reason you provide I don't agree with. Nika may not shoot "well" but Aubrey from the outside shoots’ poor.

With that said, I have posted that I'd start Aubrey at the PF spot to start the season. And ofc if Nika shows she can't shoot in which her 3pt% plummets then her minutes go on the chopping block.

But the other point from above is that when you say "Nika and Aubrey can't shoot well." imo you are lumping them together but Nika has separation. She shot 34.9% from 3 this past year. She was awful the year before (when they moved back the 3pt line for year 1) but in her frosh year around the time Geno started giving her more minutes/ once she was healthy/ had her feet wet/ then prior to her end of season ankle injury/ she shot over 37%. If she shoots 34.9% or better from 3, then that isn't that bad. It's equivalent to over 52%. from 2.

I mean isn't there a possibility that we can admit that 34.9% from 3 isn't that bad? And because we've seen improvement, from the prior year with a showing of the year before albeit shorter distance, that it's possible we can make a reasonable assumption that 34.9% or better is achievable for 2023-2024, and not so bad?

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I believe that Geno will have Paige as his starting point guard during the NCAA tournament next spring. Paige has demonstrated that she is much better in high-pressure playoff games than Nika is. For example, in the 2022 playoffs, Paige had a heroic performance, scoring a team-leading 27 points against NC State, and she was also UConn’s leading scorer against Stanford and South Carolina, scoring 14 points in both the semifinal and national championship games. Nika, in contrast, scored just 3 points and she turned the ball over 7 times against Ohio State, and UConn was bounced out of the Sweet 16.

Paige is the best player on UConn’s WBB team, and she is a much better scorer than Nika is: Paige averaged 18 points during her first two seasons, 2.5 times Nika’s average of 7.1 points last season. Paige is also arguably a better passer (note Azzi’s recent comments to the media about how good Paige’s passes are), she has a higher basketball IQ than Nika has, and she averages fewer turnovers than Nika does (2.2 TO/game vs. 3.5 TO/game).

Teams have to respect Paige’s scoring prowess; she stretches their defenses out to the perimeter, thereby giving more room for UConn’s post players to operate. In contrast, Nika’s scoring is relatively anemic, which means that teams often sag off of her and pack the paint or double-team other players, making it harder for UConn’s post players to score.

Again, I think that Geno will experiment with different point guards and lineup combinations during the season, but when the NCAA tournament arrives, barring injuries, he’ll have Paige as his starting point guard in his quest for a twelfth national championship.



Sure. but if Caroline can't start, then who starts? I'm not arguing with you that Paige isn't better than Nika. I'm arguing that you seem to have dismissed Nika completely. So - for argument preseason for fun purposes - who is it - Nika or Aubrey? It has to be one of them if Caroline can't start, so my disagreement with you (and others) has been that it seems you would give it to Aubrey. I wouldn't I give it Nika. IMO it's clear as of this moment it's Nika over Aubrey. And the reasons you and others give, for example as you mention above that Nika can't shoot I believe are wrong as well as others when they cite similar or other reasons. The reason you provide I don't agree with. Nika may not shoot "well" but Aubrey from the outside shoots’ poor.

With that said, I have posted that I'd start Aubrey at the PF spot to start the season. And ofc if Nika shows she can't shoot in which her 3pt% plummets then her minutes go on the chopping block.

But the other point from above is that when you say "Nika and Aubrey can't shoot well." imo you are lumping them together but Nika has separation. She shot 34.9% from 3 this past year. She was awful the year before (when they moved back the 3pt line for year 1) but in her frosh year around the time Geno started giving her more minutes/ once she was healthy/ had her feet wet/ then prior to her end of season ankle injury/ she shot over 37%. If she shoots 34.9% or better from 3, then that isn't that bad. It's equivalent to over 52%. from 2.

I mean isn't there a possibility that we can admit that 34.9% from 3 isn't that bad? And because we've seen improvement, from the prior year with a showing of the year before albeit shorter distance, that it's possible we can make a reasonable assumption that 34.9% or better is achievable for 2023-2024, and not so bad?

I think this is exactly what people miss when talking about starters fro next year. Nika isn’t competing with Paige for a starting spot, she’s competing with Aubrey, Caroline and Ice for two starting spots. It’s clear to anyone with eyes and brain she is more valuable on both sides of the ball than all four of those players at this given moment.

 

[hoophuskee]

I’m not sure why you have the impression that I think Nika and Paige cannot play together. They absolutely can play together. As I said in post #145: “They will have many opportunities to play together.”

A question mark for me is at the 3 position. Will Geno put Caroline in that position? Aubrey?

You said that you question Caroline’s health. I have the same question. I have concerns about her susceptibility to have concussions.

I said this because you said to start the NCAA's you beleive Geno will choose to have Paige be the pg. That would mean Nika is on the bench, wouldn't it? Or do you mean Nika will play but off-the-ball? Or unless yoru below coment "leading the team" means that even if she doesn't bring teh ball up, - then as an example - most of the time generally many of the 1st passes will go to her as if she is the the pg? Which I can see-- sure. If so, I can understand that.
But Id still call Nika a pg too.

 

[Surly1]

“According to your logic…” — gee, that sounds friendly. I only hear that from my daughter when she’s about to show how wrong I am. In the plus colimn, though, she also says stuff like, “I believe in you, Dad…” — and I can’t shake the feeling she’s poking fun at me.

In a presser in 2022, a few weeks before she returned from her injury, Geno said about Paige, “Of course, she’s going to have to earn her playing time, like everyone else.” He then laughed and turned to the next question.

Sorry if it came off that way. It certainly wasn't intended. I was trying to make the implication about how silly it is for Paige having to earn playing time after missing an entire season. However, you made the clarification perfectly clear.

I am a fan of your posts.

 

[Bone Dog]

Sorry if it came off that way. It certainly wasn't intended. I was trying to make the implication about how silly it is for Paige having to earn playing time after missing an entire season. However, you made the clarification perfectly clear.

I am a fan of your posts.

Don't worry. I knew it was friendly banter. I wouldn't have reacted to it at all if I wasn't tickled by your post. In fact, everything about summer BY posts is (and should be) quite comical. We're all waiting for something real to talk about and have so much energy to devote to these idle speculations. We all have to help each other through this long dry time.

 

[Bone Dog]

Here's a blast from the past. This is what playing two point guards at once should look like.

 

[Skeets]

I loved your post, but I was curious about this paragraph. Nika played heavy minutes but was able to push the pace all the time. Paige could push the pace all the time but only if her minutes were reduced. How do we know that? We don’t. Having said that, I don’t expect Paige to be 100 percent at the beginning of the season.

Paige suffered her first injury brining the ball up court when she was totally exhausted. Yes, she should not have been in the game at that point, but I don't want Paige bringing up the ball up the court when she's even a little bit tired. There is absolutely no need for that. There are plenty of people (think Nika, KK, Ines, et.al.) to bring the ball up the court. If healthy, no one should be totally exhausted at the end of the game.

 

[Cedar]

I said this because you said to start the NCAA's you beleive Geno will choose to have Paige be the pg. That would mean Nika is on the bench, wouldn't it? Or do you mean Nika will play but off-the-ball? Or unless yoru below coment "leading the team" means that even if she doesn't bring teh ball up, - then as an example - most of the time generally many of the 1st passes will go to her as if she is the the pg? Which I can see-- sure. If so, I can understand that.
But Id still call Nika a pg too.

To be crystal clear, I think both Paige and Nika will have opportunities to play the point guard position during the season, and they will have plenty of opportunities to play together. Paige will also have chances to play the 2 and possibly the 3 positions during the season, I believe.

When the NCAA tournament arrives, I think that Paige will be the starting point guard and Azzi will be the shooting guard, with Nika coming into games to provide a spark off the bench. I think Paige is the team’s best point guard, for the reasons I mentioned in posts #53, 144, and 145.

 

[JBK]

Nika is the two time defensive player of the year in the conference so I don't see her on the bench. She isn't a great shooter but can drive to the basket with anyone so I see her at the point on the break and Paige and Azzi filling the wings for the three. Once they are in the half court they run a motion offense so I don't know that the point is a truly defined position.

The real mystery will be the 5th spot. Will they go with the quickness of Aubrey or more size on the inside? When healthy this team has a lot of really good options regardless of how they decide to approach the opponent.

One of our biggest problems last year was turnovers. ( worst in UCONN history )
With a healthy Paige back and the ball in her hand - that will not continue to be a problem

 

[AzzisBraids]

Nika will be the starting point guard. She had a record year last year and with a healthy Bueckers, Fudd, Ducharme and Brady she will have new targets. She won't even have to score but she will enough to get the defense honest.

I anticipiate an initial line-up of Nika, Paige, Azzi, Griffin and Edwards. Ducharme or Brady will knock for Griffin's spot depending on the match-ups.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

To be crystal clear, I think both Paige and Nika will have opportunities to play the point guard position during the season, and they will have plenty of opportunities to play together. Paige will also have chances to play the 2 and possibly the 3 positions during the season, I believe.

When the NCAA tournament arrives, I think that Paige will be the starting point guard and Azzi will be the shooting guard, with Nika coming into games to provide a spark off the bench. I think Paige is the team’s best point guard, for the reasons I mentioned in posts #53, 144, and 145.

Why wouldn’t Nika just be the third guard? She’s a better passer, perimeter defender and outside shooter than Aubrey or Caroline.

 

[Alydar]

Sure. but if Caroline can't start, then who starts? I'm not arguing with you that Paige isn't better than Nika. I'm arguing that you seem to have dismissed Nika completely. So - for argument preseason for fun purposes - who is it - Nika or Aubrey? It has to be one of them if Caroline can't start, so my disagreement with you (and others) has been that it seems you would give it to Aubrey. I wouldn't I give it Nika. IMO it's clear as of this moment it's Nika over Aubrey. And the reasons you and others give, for example as you mention above that Nika can't shoot I believe are wrong as well as others when they cite similar or other reasons. The reason you provide I don't agree with. Nika may not shoot "well" but Aubrey from the outside shoots’ poor.

With that said, I have posted that I'd start Aubrey at the PF spot to start the season. And ofc if Nika shows she can't shoot in which her 3pt% plummets then her minutes go on the chopping block.

But the other point from above is that when you say "Nika and Aubrey can't shoot well." imo you are lumping them together but Nika has separation. She shot 34.9% from 3 this past year. She was awful the year before (when they moved back the 3pt line for year 1) but in her frosh year around the time Geno started giving her more minutes/ once she was healthy/ had her feet wet/ then prior to her end of season ankle injury/ she shot over 37%. If she shoots 34.9% or better from 3, then that isn't that bad. It's equivalent to over 52%. from 2.

I mean isn't there a possibility that we can admit that 34.9% from 3 isn't that bad? And because we've seen improvement, from the prior year with a showing of the year before albeit shorter distance, that it's possible we can make a reasonable assumption that 34.9% or better is achievable for 2023-2024, and not so bad?

"you seem to have dismissed Nika completely"

That's not true. I posted that she will get more minutes at pg than Bueckers. Is that dismissive? I have her, Bueckers and Fudd in a three guard rotation at the 1 & 2.

"who is it - Nika or Aubrey? It has to be one of them if Caroline can't start, so my disagreement with you (and others) has been that it seems you would give it to Aubrey. I wouldn't I give it Nika. IMO it's clear as of this moment it's Nika over Aubrey."

Nothing about it is clear. If we make this discussion about these two I think it's clear that Griffin offers tools that none of the other 4 starters possess while Muhl doesn't. It's not a putdown of Muhl's play, it's because she's behind Bueckers and Fudd and I don't think any player in the country is as good or better than those 2.
While 3pt shooting is important so is the ability to score in the paint. Muhl's small edge over Griffin shooting 3's has to be balanced against Griffin's superior inside scoring.

A 3 guard rotation at the 1 & 2 gives all 3 26 minutes a game which can keep them all fresh.

 

[Alydar]

Why wouldn’t Nika just be the third guard? She’s a better passer, perimeter defender and outside shooter than Aubrey or Caroline.

She will be. Off the bench.

 

[Cedar]

Why wouldn’t Nika just be the third guard? She’s a better passer, perimeter defender and outside shooter than Aubrey or Caroline.

Geno could employ Nika as the third guard if he wanted to go with a small lineup. Caroline is a better scorer, particularly if she reverts to her pre-injury performance.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Geno could employ Nika as the third guard if he wanted to go with a small lineup. Caroline is a better scorer, particularly if she reverts to her pre-injury performance.

Carolina may be the better scorer but Nika generates more points and is a better defender. If Carolina makes a big step forward maybe there is a case she should be starting over Nika but based on what they’ve both show in the last couple of years, no way should she be starting over Nika.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

She will be. Off the bench.

I just don’t see her not starting. She’s our fourth best player, no way are two other people beating her out of a starting spot without huge steps forward taken by multiple people.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

The stats say otherwise though. Caroline is a career 31% 3pt shooter at UConn, Nika 34%. Carolinas highest season 3pt percentage isn’t has high as Nika’s lowest.

 

[Geesworld]

The team has always ran smoother with Nika at point. She's the best PG on this roster, she pushes the rock better and she the best defender. Fresh legs will help her be even better this year.

 

[Alydar]

The stats say otherwise though. Caroline is a career 31% 3pt shooter at UConn, Nika 34%. Carolinas highest season 3pt percentage isn’t has high as Nika’s lowest.

In December of 2001, after Bueckers and Fudd were out freshman Ducharme took over the scoring load and performed like a veteran player. I don't know how that could be measured. Muhl only takes 3's when she is wide open and can square up and shoot flat-footed. Ducharme can shoot 3's coming off screens or while covered. Again, I don't know how to measure than but I'll wager the results of a poll asking who the better 3pt shooter is wouldn't be close.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

In December of 2001, after Bueckers and Fudd were out freshman Ducharme took over the scoring load and performed like a veteran player. I don't know how that could be measured. Muhl only takes 3's when she is wide open and can square up and shoot flat-footed. Ducharme can shoot 3's coming off screens or while covered. Again, I don't know how to measure than but I'll wager the results of a poll asking who the better 3pt shooter is wouldn't be close.

So not only is she a worst shooter statistically, she’s also a high volume poor shooter? Not really making the case to start Caroline over Nika here.

Nika’s form may be worse than Carolina but this far Carolinas shooting touch hasn’t translated into real college games. Where as Nika also has defense and creating shots for other in her skills set so even if she isn’t shooting well she is still creating points.

There is just not a rational argument at this time that validates putting Caroline or Aubrey over Nika in the line-up.

 

[Dogstar]

A healthy Paige will simply not allow anyone to take over her position as starting point guard for a champion UConn WBB Team!

TAKE OVER?...its not a competition it's doing whatever needs to be done to be a fluid team offensively and defensively, positionless to a point, as good as Paige is I've never seen her or anyone go back door, post up, or flare off a screen for a jump shot and hit themselves with a pass for the assist. There's lots of rules to be followed whn playing for Geno and first and foremost is.....leave your ego at the door, and Paige and all the players know this, thts wht makes UConn not just a team but a machine. Everyone must Eat ..no matter who serves them, no matter who starts or finishes. In closing, and I may catch some flack but I wouldn't complain if Paige (because of the severity of her injury) came off the bench and played restricted mins for the first month to build the leg strength and confidence thts gonna be needed come March. I know the practices are tough but they don't involve the banging, bruises (unless Nika is guarding her) hard screens, impeding, grab ing and unknowns of gametime play. One thg you can count on is tht the opponents aren't going to play nicey nicey with her.

 

[SEbluebood]

We agree on some points and disagree on others.

You are correct that Nika had one more rebound than Cameron Brink (8 vs. 7). However, Nika only scored 2 points in that game, versus 15 for Brink. Paige scored 14 points and she had 4 rebounds.

The results of the Stanford game buttress an assertion that I made in my previous post, namely, that Paige generally performs better overall than Nika, particularly in high-pressure playoff games. You can see Paige’s superior performance more clearly by looking at data from HerHoopStats. Below is a table summarizing some key statistics.

Player	Player Efficiency Rating (PER)	Offensive Rating	Defensive Rating (lower numbers are better)	Net Rating
Paige Bueckers (2021-2022 season)	30.4	119.7	77.3	42.4
Nika Muhl (2022-2023 season)	14.4	102.8	85.5	17.3

As the table shows, Paige’s PER is more than double Nika’s PER. Paige’s net rating is 25.1 points higher than Nika’s. Those are huge margins. Note that Paige’s offensive rating and her defensive rating are both better than Nika’s ratings.

I agree with you that Nika significantly improved her game last season. I also agree that Nika had an excellent A/TO ratio. However, Paige had an even better A/TO ratio: 2.31 vs. 2.24.

In a number of posts, you have propounded the theory that the UConn players were “emotionally spent” in the game against Ohio State. I am not willing to subscribe to this theory based on the results of just one game. UConn had plenty of energy and spirit in the Big East tournament and during the NCAA tournament games against Baylor and Vermont. Moreover, I have not heard any comments from Geno or from his players that they were “emotionally spent” during the game against Ohio State. A more plausible explanation is that UConn was flummoxed and stymied by Ohio State’s well-executed, full-court press.

I agree with you that Nika should not be solely blamed for the loss to Ohio State. She did, however, lead the team in turnovers (7) in that game.

You wrote that there was a team letdown against tOSU. Not all the players had disappointing performances. Lou had an impressive 25-point game with an injured knee. Dorka and Azzi scored 13 and 14 points, respectively. Aaliyah, Caroline, Aubrey, and Nika had weak performances, however.

Ohio State should be given credit for a well-played game. Cotie McMahon and Jacy Sheldon played especially well.

Azzi was 6-17 with four turnovers and one assist in the game UConn needed her most. I think if you asked her she would call that a disappointing performance.