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Stanford's #1 seed problem

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A few notes from history ...

1995 - AP #3 Stanford (25-2) was a 2 seed [behind #6 Vandy 26-6]
1998 - AP #4 LaTech (26-3) was a 3 seed

still researching the 2000s...
 
vowelguy said:
A few notes from history ...

1995 - AP #3 Stanford (25-2) was a 2 seed [behind #6 Vandy 26-6]
1998 - AP #4 LaTech (26-3) was a 3 seed

still researching the 2000s...
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Can you show me the schedules for those teams? Unless you can see who the losses were against, how can you make a judgement on where they should be seeded?
 
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alexrgct said:
Still less travel for Stanford, and whether attendance is bad or good, no having to play a regional final in a hornets nest (like Kingston or north carolina would be, or like Spokane was last year, even though they prevailed).
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Attendance and making money is something the "committee" should think about when awarding all sites. When will they start being embarrassed by 3/4 empty gyms for regional games?

Sure they are trying to be fair by placing teams far enough away so they won't be considered as home teams, but this is just not the case. 2000 of the 2500 in Fresno will be Stanford fans. Why not just hold it in Palo Alto and get 5 to 6000 instead? Reward the loyal fans with games in their backyards rather than making them travel to some outpost.

Two years ago the East regional was in Trenton and drew 6000 per session of which 85% were UConn fans. Why not just have it in Bridgeport or Hartford and draw 9 to 10,000? And I went to Trenton. That was one horrible venue in the middle of the barrio with a prison bordering it. What were they thinking?
 
doggydaddy said:
oooopps...lol.

But we are talking about La Tech in their 30 wins a year prime, year after year. Delaware is a one hit wonder.
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Again, I don't know why you're bringing these things up. The committee's job is took at the team's performance *that year*. Reputation = irrelevant. Conference historical status = irrelevant. It's quality wins and bad losses.

Believe me, if Delaware had quality wins against top 10 teams, no one would care what conference they were from. The problem is their schedule, not their conference. By extension, Stanford's problem is its schedule; its conference can't save it, unless the other PAC teams get some key non-conf wins and prove that it's a strong conference.
 
doggydaddy said:
Can you show me the schedules for those teams? Unless you can see who the losses were against, how can you make a judgement on where they should be seeded?
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95 STAN (rank listed is final AP rank)
L @ #3 Tenn, @ #21 Ore St;
W #16 Purdue, #5 Texas Tech, #14 Wash, #21 Ore St, @#14 Wash
 
cardfan said:
As I mentioned before, the Pac12 is the only conf that requires to play each team twice, every yr. The PAC 12 has 2 team travel partners, e.g.,ariz schools, Oregons, NorCal. SoCal, etc, so the week of the schedule with your travel partner (for Stanford, it's Cal) we only have one game that week, so we can schedule one more which is usually Feb. Also, the conf tourney requires 3 games, so there will be 25 conf games next yr. This year we start conf play vs LA schools right after Xmas break.
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I see, now, what was missed. Stanford only has 29 games scheduled instead of the 31 previously believed. Any idea what might have happened there?
 
Ruffian75 said:
Fresno is not all that great of an advantage for Stanford. The attendance in the past has been terrible. Under 3000 per session IIRC. It is a three hour drive from Palo Alto. Why does the NCAA continue to have regionals in this "outpost?" As far as western locations, Spokane (Gonzaga) and Albuquerque (New Mexico) are good sites because they support women's bball in those cities.
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Agree
 
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VAUConnFan said:
I see, now, what was missed. Stanford only has 29 games scheduled instead of the 31 previously believed. Any idea what might have happened there?
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I don't know. Maybe all the uncertainty with the Pac 10 conf changes.
 
cardfan said:
I don't know. Maybe all the uncertainty with the Pac 10 conf changes.
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With the expansion to 12 teams, the Pac does not play a full double round-robin schedule anymore. There are still only 18 conference games (as there were in the old Pac-10), not 22. The way it works now is that each year, a visit to one of the possible pairs of travel partners is omitted, and a home stand against another is omitted. For example, this year Stanford does not play at Washington or Washington State, while Arizona and Arizona State do not play at Stanford. They play home-and-home against all the other teams.

There are always two weekends when a team has only one conference game, namely the weekends of the home game and the road game against its travel partner (Cal, in Stanford's case). This year Stanford chose to squeeze in an extra nonconference game during one of those weekends.

Seattle U. moved to D-I recently, so the game is not an exhibition. Their coach is Joan Bonvicini. I'm sure Tara knows her from her days at Arizona; maybe that has something to do with how the game came about.
 
Stanfords Schedule
11/11/11 at Texas--NCAA Tournament

11/13/11 vs. Gonzaga--NCAA Tournament

11/17/11 vs. Old Dominion

11/21/11 at Connecticut--NCAA Tournament

11/25/11 at Xavier--NCAA Tournament

11/30/11 vs. UC Davis--NCAA Tournament

12/04/11 at Fresno State--NCAA Tournament

12/17/11 vs. Princeton--NCAA Tournament

12/20/11 vs. Tennessee--NCAA Tournament
12/22/11 vs. CS Bakersfield
02/29/12 vs. Seattle University

8 of Stanfords 11 OOC games this season are against teams that made the NCAA tournament last year. I guess they should have scheduled all 11 games against tournament teams. What Stanfords OOC schedule doesnt have is a bunch of games against the bottom teams, record and RPI wise.
Cal is just outside of the top 25 and if they beat Ohio State on Sat. they will move in the top 25 and should move up to the top 20 before they play Stanford at the end of Jan.. Gonzaga might be a top 20 team by the end of the season. They will have to beat Georgia in Las Vegas next week and BYU later in WCC play. They should win all other games in WCC play.
If Stanford beats UT on Monday they most likely finish the season with one loss. Either way, I see them at Fresno no matter what.
 
vowelguy said:
Don't pencil the Cardinal in as the #1 in Fresno just yet. I would say it's only about 50-50 they get it. And that number falls to <1% if they lose to Tennessee next week.

Despite what some of our west coast friends say, Stan's non-conference schedule isn't very strong this year. Their only really good win is at Texas. Victory over Gonzaga is pretty good. TN & Princeton are their only other solid non-conference opponents remaining.

And the PAC remains weak. Cal, USC, and Ariz St are all decent enough teams, and they may still rise. But their non-conference records have not been great either.
- Cal has a win over UVA, but losses to Texas and Rutgers.
- USC has a win over Gonzaga, but losses to Nebraska, Georgia, & NDame
- Ariz St has no quality wins, and a loss to Rutgers
Nothing there to make you think any of them are top 20 teams.

Each has a quality opponent in the next week: Ohio St (Cal), Tx A&M (USC), DePaul (ASU). If they win them all, then the PAC gets a bit of a boost. Lose all 3 and disaster -- even going undefeated in the PAC wouldn't be a major achievement for Stanford. If they beat Tenn, that means they are 1-1 against Top 20 competition. Is that worthy of a #1 seed? Borderline. A loss to the Vols and there's no way.

If they don't win the rest of their games, I see someone else - possibly the SEC or ACC champ -- getting a #1 seed over them.
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More bad news for the PAC: Cal's furious comeback fell short, and it lost to Ohio St today. Another failed attempt at a quality win.
 
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Tough loss for Cal. They've lost to 3 ranked teams by a total of 6 pts.

Stanford was rusty vs a pretty good Princeton team. Im still not very confident about beating TN. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost big.
 
cardfan said:
Tough loss for Cal. They've lost to 3 ranked teams by a total of 6 pts.

Stanford was rusty vs a pretty good Princeton team. Im still not very confident about beating TN. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost big.
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Sorry to say, Cardfan, that's how I see it too. Tennessee's seniors have been playing a lot better this year. And healthier, in Baugh's case.
 
cardfan said:
Tough loss for Cal. They've lost to 3 ranked teams by a total of 6 pts.

Stanford was rusty vs a pretty good Princeton team. Im still not very confident about beating TN. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost big.
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On a positive note, Tenn's defense gave up 64 points to an offensively challenged UCLA team. UCLA also grabbed 18 offensive boards so the O sisters should have opportunities for offensive boards. There are definitely holes in Tenn's defense so Stanford will also have opportunities to score. But players not named Ogwumike will need to shoot better than they shot today.
 
UConnCat said:
On a positive note, Tenn's defense gave up 64 points to an offensively challenged UCLA team. UCLA also grabbed 18 offensive boards so the O sisters should have opportunities for offensive boards. There are definitely holes in Tenn's defense so Stanford will also have opportunities to score. But players not named Ogwumike will need to shoot better than they shot today.
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Agree. We were obviously a bit rusty after 13 day lay off for finals. Give a lot of credit to Princeton, they played a solid and fundamentally strong game.

We are too young in backcourt and wing. My expectations are not that high.
 
But I thought losing Pohlen and Pedersen was going to be no problem?
 
VAUConnFan said:
I see, now, what was missed. Stanford only has 29 games scheduled instead of the 31 previously believed. Any idea what might have happened there?
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29 games would be correct.

In order to play more than 29 games, you have to play in the tourneys that allow you to play extra games. Teams in the pre-season WNIT get the most games, UConn benefits from a 3 game tourney, etc. The rest of the WBB world plays 29 (or, in a few cases, 28) games.

21 of the 74 power conference teams are playing more than 29; most from the Big 12 and Big East.
 
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Just confirmed that Baylor is the only team playing 31 this season - due to the WNIT as noted.

As to the Big 10 mention - will be interesting. Michigan, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State and Penn State are all looking pretty good; some of the other teams are looking awful. They always play a tough out of conference schedule, and actually might be having one of their better years against it.

In any case, PAC 12, Big Ten and SEC may compete for weakest, based on early returns.
 
pap49cba said:
But I thought losing Pohlen and Pedersen was going to be no problem?
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I never said that. In fact, I said we were going to miss a lot because they played in every game during their Stanford careers. Pedersen started ALL games, minus Depaul game last yr when she was hurt. We have a talented frosh class, but they are frosh, and it's early in the season.
 
cardfan said:
I never said that. In fact, I said we were going to miss a lot because they played in every game during Stanford career, and Pedersen started ALL games, minus Depaul game last yr when she was hurt. We have a talented frosh class, but they are frosh and it's early.
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Sorry cardfan, I didn't mean to imply you said that. But some Stanford visitors have suggested that Orrange and others would slot right in for P & P without missing a beat.
 
KnightBridgeAZ said:
29 games would be correct.

In order to play more than 29 games, you have to play in the tourneys that allow you to play extra games. Teams in the pre-season WNIT get the most games, UConn benefits from a 3 game tourney, etc. The rest of the WBB world plays 29 (or, in a few cases, 28) games.

21 of the 74 power conference teams are playing more than 29; most from the Big 12 and Big East.
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As Johnny Carson would famously say, "I didn't know that." Thanx.
 
KnightBridgeAZ said:
Just confirmed that Baylor is the only team playing 31 this season - due to the WNIT as noted.

As to the Big 10 mention - will be interesting. Michigan, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State and Penn State are all looking pretty good; some of the other teams are looking awful. They always play a tough out of conference schedule, and actually might be having one of their better years against it.

In any case, PAC 12, Big Ten and SEC may compete for weakest, based on early returns.
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Actually based on early returns.. the Pac 12 would be at the bottom... but the SEC would be ahead of the ACC... much to my chagrin. I would put the ACC ahead of the Big 10 as well.
 
vowelguy said:
Their only really good win is at Texas.
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And the Texas winning is not exactly stellar. Yes Texas is ranked, but for how long? Not a single win over a ranked team. Beating North Texas by nine? Not exactly impressive.
 
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