Stanford's #1 seed problem

[Ruffian75]

At worst, though, they get a two seed and a spot in the Fresno bracket. Sweet 16 round may be a bit tougher, but overall, the difference between being a one and a two in a favorable location isn't great. Kind of like when UConn was a two in the Hartford regional in 2004.

Fresno is not all that great of an advantage for Stanford. The attendance in the past has been terrible. Under 3000 per session IIRC. It is a three hour drive from Palo Alto. Why does the NCAA continue to have regionals in this "outpost?" As far as western locations, Spokane (Gonzaga) and Albuquerque (New Mexico) are good sites because they support women's bball in those cities.

 

[alexrgct]

Fresno is not all that great of an advantage for Stanford. The attendance in the past has been terrible. Under 3000 per session IIRC. It is a three hour drive from Palo Alto. Why does the NCAA continue to have regionals in this "outpost?" As far as western locations, Spokane (Gonzaga) and Albuquerque (New Mexico) are good sites because they support women's bball in those cities.

Still less travel for Stanford, and whether attendance is bad or good, no having to play a regional final in a hornets nest (like Kingston or north carolina would be, or like Spokane was last year, even though they prevailed).

 

[Vowelguy]

Let's say that UConn, Baylor and ND are locks for a #1. If Tennessee, Duke, Maryland all have 5 losses, Stanford at 30-2 will not get the last one?

Not quite sure why you keep talking about # of losses.

What your suggesting punishes teams for playing a more difficult schedule. The committee typically wants to do the opposite.

There's a decent chance that Delaware finishes the year with 1 loss (to Maryland). And a quality win over Penn St. According to the criteria you're discussing, shouldn't they be a #1 seed?

 

[doggydaddy]

Not quite sure why you keep talking about # of losses.

What your suggesting punishes teams for playing a more difficult schedule. The committee typically wants to do the opposite.

There's a decent chance that Delaware finishes the year with 1 loss (to Maryland). And a quality win over Penn St. According to the criteria you're discussing, shouldn't they be a #1 seed?

No, they are a mid-major program. Stanford is not.
Hopefully they beat Tennessee and this is a moot point.

 

[magic]

Baylor--- Raleigh
Uconn---R.I
N.D.-----Des Moines
Stanford---Fresno

 

[Vowelguy]

No, they are a mid-major program. Stanford is not.

Again, don't know what that has to be do with anything.

 

[Vowelguy]

A few notes from history ...

1995 - AP #3 Stanford (25-2) was a 2 seed [behind #6 Vandy 26-6]
1998 - AP #4 LaTech (26-3) was a 3 seed

still researching the 2000s...

 

[doggydaddy]

Again, don't know what that has to be do with anything.

While you are looking things up, can you find a mid-major that was a #1 seed? Thanks.

 

[doggydaddy]

A few notes from history ...

1995 - AP #3 Stanford (25-2) was a 2 seed [behind #6 Vandy 26-6]
1998 - AP #4 LaTech (26-3) was a 3 seed

still researching the 2000s...

Can you show me the schedules for those teams? Unless you can see who the losses were against, how can you make a judgement on where they should be seeded?

 

[alexrgct]

While you are looking things up, can you find a mid-major that was a #1 seed? Thanks.

La Tech?

 

[doggydaddy]

La Tech?

oooopps...lol.

But we are talking about La Tech in their 30 wins a year prime, year after year. Delaware is a one hit wonder.

 

[Ruffian75]

Still less travel for Stanford, and whether attendance is bad or good, no having to play a regional final in a hornets nest (like Kingston or north carolina would be, or like Spokane was last year, even though they prevailed).

Attendance and making money is something the "committee" should think about when awarding all sites. When will they start being embarrassed by 3/4 empty gyms for regional games?

Sure they are trying to be fair by placing teams far enough away so they won't be considered as home teams, but this is just not the case. 2000 of the 2500 in Fresno will be Stanford fans. Why not just hold it in Palo Alto and get 5 to 6000 instead? Reward the loyal fans with games in their backyards rather than making them travel to some outpost.

Two years ago the East regional was in Trenton and drew 6000 per session of which 85% were UConn fans. Why not just have it in Bridgeport or Hartford and draw 9 to 10,000? And I went to Trenton. That was one horrible venue in the middle of the barrio with a prison bordering it. What were they thinking?

 

[Vowelguy]

oooopps...lol.

But we are talking about La Tech in their 30 wins a year prime, year after year. Delaware is a one hit wonder.

Again, I don't know why you're bringing these things up. The committee's job is took at the team's performance *that year*. Reputation = irrelevant. Conference historical status = irrelevant. It's quality wins and bad losses.

Believe me, if Delaware had quality wins against top 10 teams, no one would care what conference they were from. The problem is their schedule, not their conference. By extension, Stanford's problem is its schedule; its conference can't save it, unless the other PAC teams get some key non-conf wins and prove that it's a strong conference.

 

[Vowelguy]

Can you show me the schedules for those teams? Unless you can see who the losses were against, how can you make a judgement on where they should be seeded?

95 STAN (rank listed is final AP rank)
L @ #3 Tenn, @ #21 Ore St;
W #16 Purdue, #5 Texas Tech, #14 Wash, #21 Ore St, @#14 Wash

 

[VAUConnFan]

As I mentioned before, the Pac12 is the only conf that requires to play each team twice, every yr. The PAC 12 has 2 team travel partners, e.g.,ariz schools, Oregons, NorCal. SoCal, etc, so the week of the schedule with your travel partner (for Stanford, it's Cal) we only have one game that week, so we can schedule one more which is usually Feb. Also, the conf tourney requires 3 games, so there will be 25 conf games next yr. This year we start conf play vs LA schools right after Xmas break.

I see, now, what was missed. Stanford only has 29 games scheduled instead of the 31 previously believed. Any idea what might have happened there?

 

[VAUConnFan]

While you are looking things up, can you find a mid-major that was a #1 seed? Thanks.

Cheyney State, Louisiana Tech, and Long Beach State, and Old Dominion

 

[cardfan]

Fresno is not all that great of an advantage for Stanford. The attendance in the past has been terrible. Under 3000 per session IIRC. It is a three hour drive from Palo Alto. Why does the NCAA continue to have regionals in this "outpost?" As far as western locations, Spokane (Gonzaga) and Albuquerque (New Mexico) are good sites because they support women's bball in those cities.

Agree

 

[cardfan]

I see, now, what was missed. Stanford only has 29 games scheduled instead of the 31 previously believed. Any idea what might have happened there?

I don't know. Maybe all the uncertainty with the Pac 10 conf changes.

 

[CompSci87]

I don't know. Maybe all the uncertainty with the Pac 10 conf changes.

With the expansion to 12 teams, the Pac does not play a full double round-robin schedule anymore. There are still only 18 conference games (as there were in the old Pac-10), not 22. The way it works now is that each year, a visit to one of the possible pairs of travel partners is omitted, and a home stand against another is omitted. For example, this year Stanford does not play at Washington or Washington State, while Arizona and Arizona State do not play at Stanford. They play home-and-home against all the other teams.

There are always two weekends when a team has only one conference game, namely the weekends of the home game and the road game against its travel partner (Cal, in Stanford's case). This year Stanford chose to squeeze in an extra nonconference game during one of those weekends.

Seattle U. moved to D-I recently, so the game is not an exhibition. Their coach is Joan Bonvicini. I'm sure Tara knows her from her days at Arizona; maybe that has something to do with how the game came about.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Thank you CompSci87.

 

[easttexastrash]

Wanna bet $10,000?

LOL

 

[ochoopsfan]

Stanfords Schedule
11/11/11 at Texas--NCAA Tournament

11/13/11 vs. Gonzaga--NCAA Tournament

11/17/11 vs. Old Dominion

11/21/11 at Connecticut--NCAA Tournament

11/25/11 at Xavier--NCAA Tournament

11/30/11 vs. UC Davis--NCAA Tournament

12/04/11 at Fresno State--NCAA Tournament

12/17/11 vs. Princeton--NCAA Tournament

12/20/11 vs. Tennessee--NCAA Tournament
12/22/11 vs. CS Bakersfield
02/29/12 vs. Seattle University

8 of Stanfords 11 OOC games this season are against teams that made the NCAA tournament last year. I guess they should have scheduled all 11 games against tournament teams. What Stanfords OOC schedule doesnt have is a bunch of games against the bottom teams, record and RPI wise.
Cal is just outside of the top 25 and if they beat Ohio State on Sat. they will move in the top 25 and should move up to the top 20 before they play Stanford at the end of Jan.. Gonzaga might be a top 20 team by the end of the season. They will have to beat Georgia in Las Vegas next week and BYU later in WCC play. They should win all other games in WCC play.
If Stanford beats UT on Monday they most likely finish the season with one loss. Either way, I see them at Fresno no matter what.

 

[Vowelguy]

Don't pencil the Cardinal in as the #1 in Fresno just yet. I would say it's only about 50-50 they get it. And that number falls to <1% if they lose to Tennessee next week.

Despite what some of our west coast friends say, Stan's non-conference schedule isn't very strong this year. Their only really good win is at Texas. Victory over Gonzaga is pretty good. TN & Princeton are their only other solid non-conference opponents remaining.

And the PAC remains weak. Cal, USC, and Ariz St are all decent enough teams, and they may still rise. But their non-conference records have not been great either.
- Cal has a win over UVA, but losses to Texas and Rutgers.
- USC has a win over Gonzaga, but losses to Nebraska, Georgia, & NDame
- Ariz St has no quality wins, and a loss to Rutgers
Nothing there to make you think any of them are top 20 teams.

Each has a quality opponent in the next week: Ohio St (Cal), Tx A&M (USC), DePaul (ASU). If they win them all, then the PAC gets a bit of a boost. Lose all 3 and disaster -- even going undefeated in the PAC wouldn't be a major achievement for Stanford. If they beat Tenn, that means they are 1-1 against Top 20 competition. Is that worthy of a #1 seed? Borderline. A loss to the Vols and there's no way.

If they don't win the rest of their games, I see someone else - possibly the SEC or ACC champ -- getting a #1 seed over them.

More bad news for the PAC: Cal's furious comeback fell short, and it lost to Ohio St today. Another failed attempt at a quality win.

 

[cardfan]

Tough loss for Cal. They've lost to 3 ranked teams by a total of 6 pts.

Stanford was rusty vs a pretty good Princeton team. Im still not very confident about beating TN. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost big.

 

[doggydaddy]

Tough loss for Cal. They've lost to 3 ranked teams by a total of 6 pts.

Stanford was rusty vs a pretty good Princeton team. Im still not very confident about beating TN. I wouldn't be shocked if we lost big.

Sorry to say, Cardfan, that's how I see it too. Tennessee's seniors have been playing a lot better this year. And healthier, in Baugh's case.