St. Mary's Nerd Preview

[87Xfer]

do we know who's officiating yet?

 

[Hi-Low]

St Marys is 12th overall in Kenpom & 8th in D.....looks like just a slight edge to good guys, on paper anyway. I do expect a close game.

 

[superjohn]

I actually don't think this game will be close either way.

I think we either play like the 2nd half against Iona and just overwhelm them offensively and we win like 78-63, or they slow down our offense and frustrate guys like Hawkins (but, unlike Iona, sustain it all game) and they gradually build a lead and win like 68-54. To be fair, I think the former is twice as likely as the latter.

I don't see any way they blow us out. We would legit have to have a complete no show and that's only happened one time this season against St. John's. I can't envision us not showing up for a game to go to the sweet 16 with a pro UConn crowd.

 

[freshler40]

This is what we were so terrible at during the losing stretch. Not so much Adama (often wrongfully blamed) and Clingan but the other guys not handling ball screens and p&r properly when we made the switch. I tend to think one of the reasons Hurley switches most of the guys when DC comes in is so they play more minutes in that different defense. Hawk and Newton seemed to struggle with it, so DC gets Diarra and Joey most of the time.

Joey is particularly good at finding Clingan. With this second lineup the opponent needs a strong defensive pivot and that is their challenge. We are like two different teams. Not many collegiate teams are able to do that. Look at the combined numbers of our two centers in their shared 40 minutes.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Joey is particularly good at finding Clingan. With this second lineup the opponent needs a strong defensive pivot and that is their challenge. We are like two different teams. Not many collegiate teams are able to do that. Look at the combined numbers of our two centers in their shared 40 minutes.

Sure, but I’m talking defense. We run different defenses depending on who is at Center and that’s not always easy. Guys may miss their different responsibilities, especially in P&R. Switching almost the whole starting 5 minimizes that. When Adama is hedging the guard has to pick up the big to stop him rolling to the hoop then switch when he recovers. With DC they usually fight over the screen to stay on the shooter/ball handler. I think Alleyne and Diarra are better than Newton and Hawk at fighting though the screen and are worse at covering the screener.

 

[fatlucy]

They’ve played only 4 legit games this year, losing 3 of them and squeaking by UCSD. Zags blew them out and Houston beat them solidly. We have to respect them but we should win easily if we play our game.

 

[SL Husky]

Saint Mary's is susceptible to some full court pressure, they lack ball handlers. They beat Gonzaga in their first match up at Moraga. In their 2 losses to Gonzaga, Gonzaga pressure made a ton of difference. It was close in their second game in Spokane until Gonzaga ramped up pressure late, and then Gonzaga pressed them into oblivion from the opening tip in the WCC championship game and blew them out.

Saint Mary's also almost blew a 25 point second half lead over a mediocre BYU team in the WCC semifinal when BYU decided to press the last 12 minutes or so of that game.

VCU tried to press them yesterday, but St. Mary's responded by playing their backup point guard together with Mahaney at the same time for extra ball handling, and they got away with that given VCU's general lack of size.

It will be interesting to see if Danny decides to try to press them in stretches and worthwhile to see if they can handle it. But I think we present enough problems in the half court that may not be necessary.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I could be wrong but I believe that this game will be decided by pace. If they can keep the game in the 50's to low 60's we could be in trouble (this is why I was uncomfortable with the posts on a couple threads earlier this week hoping for St Mary's over VCU*). If the game gets to the 70's or higher it will be ours. I am concerned that we all too often allow the opponent to dictate pace.

* One major contributing factor to Princeton's win over Arizona was the pace of the game. Teams that are used to up-tempo games often get frustrated (and make mistakes with the ball) in slow down games. A lot of good teams can figure this out, Arizona didn't and I'm not sure that we wouldn't have made a ton of offensive mistakes in a similar situation We would have run VCU off the court We need to pick up the pace of this game where we can and we need to minimize offensive mistakes

oh yeah

 

[JohnFSilver]

65 is my number. St Mary’s won’t score over that amount. If UConn hits 65 they will win the game. If they get under 65, that means game is slow and get your nitro glycerin pills

UConn needs to play fast. Generate possessions. Push pace. They are such an elite o rebounding team, best way to hit boards is to get more shots up.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I could be wrong but I believe that this game will be decided by pace. If they can keep the game in the 50's to low 60's we could be in trouble (this is why I was uncomfortable with the posts on a couple threads earlier this week hoping for St Mary's over VCU*). If the game gets to the 70's or higher it will be ours. I am concerned that we all too often allow the opponent to dictate pace.

* One major contributing factor to Princeton's win over Arizona was the pace of the game. Teams that are used to up-tempo games often get frustrated (and make mistakes with the ball) in slow down games. A lot of good teams can figure this out, Arizona didn't and I'm not sure that we wouldn't have made a ton of offensive mistakes in a similar situation We would have run VCU off the court We need to pick up the pace of this game where we can and we need to minimize offensive mistakes

oh yeah

View attachment 85304

And above post said it better than me. Make game faster. Don’t let St Mary’s so what creighton did at creighton. 58-55 is terrible pace.

 

[ctchamps]

Joey C will be ready.. Wants to get his Cali posse to Vegas

I think Joey California is going to make the Aussies know who the real deal is!

This is the cali way!

 

[Umami Zen]

Pace can be influenced by who/which team is controlling the boards.. This will be one of the keys to this game.. They are a very good defensive boards team.. We are great on O boards..

Andre is a great rebounding guard/wing who can start his own break off of the defensive boards affecting pace.. IMO.. Which team gains separation on the boards will have the upper hand.

 

[auror]

They’ve played only 4 legit games this year, losing 3 of them and squeaking by UCSD. Zags blew them out and Houston beat them solidly. We have to respect them but we should win easily if we play our game.

They beat SDSU (in the sweet 16) and Gonzaga once, then lost to Gonzaga twice and Houston by 5. Also beat Oral Roberts (12 seed), VCU (obviously), and Hofstra/Vanderbilt who were bubble/league winning teams.

 

[JohnFSilver]

They beat SDSU (in the sweet 16) and Gonzaga once, then lost to Gonzaga twice and Houston by 5. Also beat Oral Roberts (12 seed), VCU (obviously), and Hofstra/Vanderbilt who were bubble/league winning teams.

St Marys is good. If UConn doesnt play well they will lose this game.

If UConn plays well, they will beat at Mary’s.

 

[nycscooby]

Very very worried about the whistles! Been an issue all year (though better down the stretch). Hoping it does not become an issue tomorrow but if we settle for a slow half-court slug fest, I am worried even with our depth.

 

[caw]

In regards to preventing opponent assists:

Team - Ranking - assist percentage (year)

Oral Roberts - 246 - 48.0
Vermont - 128 - 52.5
North Texas - 206 - 49.4
Southern - 48 - 56.3
Hofstra - 228 - 48.8
Vandy - 300 - 46.4
Washington - 281 - 46.7
UNM - 276 - 46.9
Houston - 96 - 53.8
Missouri St. - 236 - 48.6
SDSU - 139 - 52.0
NMSU - 327 - 44.7
Colorado St. - 12 - 61.5
Wyoming - 304 - 46.1
USD - 314 - 45.3
Santa Clara - 212 - 49.3
Portland - 38 - 57.1
LMU - 352 - 42.3
SF - 225 - 48.9
Pepp - 181 - 50.2
BYU - 106 - 53.4
Gonzaga - 177 - 50.4
Pacific - 268 - 47.1
VCU - 111 - 53.1

UCONN - 9 - 63.0

Not that they don't force ISO and not that their defense didn't contribute to those low percentages above, but they played only three teams in the top 50 in assist percentage. Again hard to judge SMC because of their schedule.

 

[NEforceUConn]

If we go down tomorrow I’ll run around my house naked with my hair on fire. (Salt over shoulder).

Rather than drunken ramble I’ll watch a Denzel action flick, seeing as I don’t get Starz for Die Hard.

 

[caw]

In regards to opponent offensive rebound percentage:

Oral Roberts - 300 - 24.5
Vermont - 360 - 19.1
North Texas - 29 - 33.8
Southern - 303 - 24.4
Hofstra - 322 - 23.5
Vandy - 99 - 30.9
Washington - 244 - 26.4
UNM - 201 - 27.9
Houston - 4 - 37.1
Missouri St. - 43 - 33.2
SDSU - 85 - 31.5
NMSU - 228 - 27.0
Colorado St. - 355 - 19.7
Wyoming - 310 - 24.2
USD - 201 - 27.9
Santa Clara - 126 - 30.2
Portland - 314 - 24.1
LMU - 126 - 30.2
SF - 188 - 28.4
Pepp - 252 - 25.9
BYU - 72 - 31.9
Gonzaga - 93 - 31.2
Pacific - 332 - 22.9
VCU - 161 - 29.0


UCONN - 1 - 39.2


They are very good at defensive rebounding, but they also did it against less than stellar competition and less than stellar teams when it comes to offensive rebounding percentage. They played more teams that rank in the 300s in OR% (8 teams) than rank in the top 50 (3 teams).

Houston is the closest comparison to UCONN's rebounding. SMC did do a good job against them, holding them to 28.6%. Just to be clear the difference is 3 ORs in that game, between Houston's average percentage and what they ended up with. They did an amazing job against Missouri St and North Texas but then again Missouri St and North Texas.

 

[HeGotGame]

They’ve played only 4 legit games this year, losing 3 of them and squeaking by UCSD. Zags blew them out and Houston beat them solidly. We have to respect them but we should win easily if we play our game.

Funny way to interpret the schedule.

They played 7 games against tournament teams, have a win against a team in the sweet 16 already and lost to Houston by 5, which you say was solidly, but beat SDST by 7, which you say they squeaked by.

Do you work for one of the major news networks?

 

[Seamus84]

Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer (top 200 opponents)

• Big and veteran team. They've whittled their rotation down to a top 6 for the tournament (I'm guessing they'll play 7 against us though for the backup big). 4 guys played 38+ minutes in the win over VCU.
• St. Mary's plays a slow, methodical style on offense (compounded by offensive rebounds). They're only average in defensive possession length, though.
• They are a very strong rebounding team, which should be the key matchup in the game. They're the #2 DReb team via KenPom, and we're #1 OReb. They're also a top 50 OReb team themselves (and we're decent defensively). They don't just have one strong rebounder, it's really defensive rebounding by committee.
• We're known as a team that moves the ball really well on offense and prevents the opponent from doing so when on defense. St. Mary's is even better at preventing opponent assists, #3 in the country. They also employ the high hedge when defending PnR like we do.
• They don't turn the ball over a ton and force a bit above average quantity on defense.
• They're balanced in how they score their points, around D1 average in percentage of their points coming from the paint, the arc, and the line, although slightly less often from the line against good teams. Similar to us, they eschew the midrange in favor of taking 86% of their shots at the rim and behind the 3-point arc. They shoot a good % from 3, including 3 starters near 40%, and fairly poor from the paint, where none of their 5 starters are particularly strong finishers. But they do get the ball into the paint a lot.
• Similar to us, they do a good job of denying 3-point attempts to opponents and they really protect the paint well.

Logan Johnson - Combo Guard - 5th year, played 1 year at Cincinnati against us in the AAC (only played 10 min combined between the 2 games). Their best player by RAPM, but defense is where he hangs his hat (12th best defender in the country). Athletic and closest thing to a PG that they have. Brother Tyler plays in the NBA. Gets downhill and to the rim at a high rate. Struggles to score on floaters and other midrange shots, so need to focus on keeping him from getting all the way from the rim. Draws a decent amount of fouls. Careful with the ball for a playmaker. Their only starting guard or wing who can't shoot, so could also consider giving him the old intentional late closeout.

Aidan Mahaney - Combo Guard - True freshman, low 4*. Public HS Local kid from same city as the college (A lot of Clingan vibes). Their best offensive guard and highest usage rate player. He's the only guy that will really create his own shot in the midrange or off the dribble from 3. Pulls up instead of drawing contact. Frailest and weakest defender among the starters by far. Sharpshooter from deep.

Alex Ducas - Wing Guard - 4th year from Australia. Fairly one dimensional. Mostly takes spot up 3's and hits them at a 41% rate. The quality and volume may be different, but has similar relative rates of getting to the rim vs. shooting 3s as Jordan Hawkins. But draws fouls far less frequently and basically never sets up his teammates for buckets.

Kyle Bowen - Stretch 4 - 4th year from Australia. Despite being 6'8", most of his shots are catch and shoot 3s (Similar to Karaban). Sensational defender (2.2 steal%, 3.0 block%), the 3rd best defender in the entire country by RAPM. Good rebounder on both ends. His usage rate is so low, he's barely active on offense. Quote from my SMC alum friend "He can't score but he can win games." Occasionally plays the five.

Mitchell Saxen - Center - 3rd year from Seattle. Slightly taller Croswell-size big. Lives in the paint ala Clingan. 97% of his shot attempts at the rim. Elite offensive rebounder. Draws a bunch of fouls. Surprisingly poor finisher at the rim considering he's only shooting from there and is 6'10", a bit like Sanogo last year (but less jump hooks, more powering to basket and putbacks). Below average FT shooter.

Thanks so much for these. Amazingly thorough. Quick question; How comparable are SMU’s stats when their level of competition is so different (lesser) than ours? I know that Kenpom/Net tries to equivalize teams, but SMU has only played 5 Q1 games (3 against Gonzaga which isn’t that athletic) and 9 Q2 games (7-2). I guess we’ll see….thoughts?

 

[Conndog]

65 is my number. St Mary’s won’t score over that amount. If UConn hits 65 they will win the game. If they get under 65, that means game is slow and get your nitro glycerin pills

UConn needs to play fast. Generate possessions. Push pace. They are such an elite o rebounding team, best way to hit boards is to get more shots up.

Nothing is faster than some of those jump shots by Jordan, Joey, Alex and Naheem!

 

[mauconnfan]

Our guys will really need to take care of the ball, keep the turnovers way down. Half court offense is not a strength but they will double down hard on Sanogo he will need to find open shooters.

Bar room brawl coming in a few hours fasten your seat belt!!!

 

[Jay-Bone]

 

[auror]

Our guys will really need to take care of the ball, keep the turnovers way down. Half court offense is not a strength but they will double down hard on Sanogo he will need to find open shooters.

Bar room brawl coming in a few hours fasten your seat belt!!!

Yeah if it happens, I think that's how we lose. Slow game, too many turnovers in half court, we don't get orebs. They win the shot volume game and hit 7+ 3s.

 

[Jay-Bone]

If our math nerds are anywhere as good as Princeton's, we win this easily.