St. Mary's Nerd Preview

[RipCity]

With it likely being a slow paced game with a lot of half court action, I hope Hurley benches Diarra. Especially after that Iona performance…

 

[Giddyup5]

Just rewatched the VCU vs St. Mary’s game.

They run a lot of pick and rolls where the screener rolls hard to the rim. However, instead of the ball handler making the pass. They pass it to a wing who throws it to the cutting screener. They time it really well.

Interestingly, though I’m sure they are looking to score from that action; They use it to collapses the defense into the paint and then spray it to their outside shooters.

@auror mentioned how we play 2 completely different ball screen defenses whether it’s AS or DC. That will be important because I feel like drop coverage is going to be more effective.

 

[auror]

Just rewatched the VCU vs St. Mary’s game.

They run a lot of pick and rolls where the screener rolls hard to the rim. However, instead of the ball handler making the pass. They pass it to a wing who throws it to the cutting screener. They time it really well.

Interestingly, though I’m sure they are looking to score from that action. They use it to collapses the defense into the paint and then spray it to their outside shooters.

@auror mentioned how we play 2 completely different ball screen defenses whether it’s AS or DC. That will be important because I feel like drop coverage is going to be more effective.

If we're rotating correctly, we can hopefully put enough pressure on the wing to prevent the pass to the screener.

 

[Friarsnoop]

Big East likely going 4-0 today. Xavier and UConn are locks, and Marquette is a near lock. Creighton probably 60-40

 

[HooperScooper]

Big East likely going 4-0 today. Xavier and UConn are locks, and Marquette is a near lock. Creighton probably 60-40

There are no such things as locks. Don't try jinxing us. Get that stuff out of here.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer (top 200 opponents)

• Big and veteran team. They've whittled their rotation down to a top 6 for the tournament (I'm guessing they'll play 7 against us though for the backup big). 4 guys played 38+ minutes in the win over VCU.
• St. Mary's plays a slow, methodical style on offense (compounded by offensive rebounds). They're only average in defensive possession length, though.
• They are a very strong rebounding team, which should be the key matchup in the game. They're the #2 DReb team via KenPom, and we're #1 OReb. They're also a top 50 OReb team themselves (and we're decent defensively). They don't just have one strong rebounder, it's really defensive rebounding by committee.
• We're known as a team that moves the ball really well on offense and prevents the opponent from doing so when on defense. St. Mary's is even better at preventing opponent assists, #3 in the country. They also employ the high hedge when defending PnR like we do.
• They don't turn the ball over a ton and force a bit above average quantity on defense.
• They're balanced in how they score their points, around D1 average in percentage of their points coming from the paint, the arc, and the line, although slightly less often from the line against good teams. Similar to us, they eschew the midrange in favor of taking 86% of their shots at the rim and behind the 3-point arc. They shoot a good % from 3, including 3 starters near 40%, and fairly poor from the paint, where none of their 5 starters are particularly strong finishers. But they do get the ball into the paint a lot.
• Similar to us, they do a good job of denying 3-point attempts to opponents and they really protect the paint well.

Logan Johnson - Combo Guard - 5th year, played 1 year at Cincinnati against us in the AAC (only played 10 min combined between the 2 games). Their best player by RAPM, but defense is where he hangs his hat (12th best defender in the country). Athletic and closest thing to a PG that they have. Brother Tyler plays in the NBA. Gets downhill and to the rim at a high rate. Struggles to score on floaters and other midrange shots, so need to focus on keeping him from getting all the way from the rim. Draws a decent amount of fouls. Careful with the ball for a playmaker. Their only starting guard or wing who can't shoot, so could also consider giving him the old intentional late closeout.

Aidan Mahaney - Combo Guard - True freshman, low 4*. Public HS Local kid from same city as the college (A lot of Clingan vibes). Their best offensive guard and highest usage rate player. He's the only guy that will really create his own shot in the midrange or off the dribble from 3. Pulls up instead of drawing contact. Frailest and weakest defender among the starters by far. Sharpshooter from deep.

Alex Ducas - Wing Guard - 4th year from Australia. Fairly one dimensional. Mostly takes spot up 3's and hits them at a 41% rate. The quality and volume may be different, but has similar relative rates of getting to the rim vs. shooting 3s as Jordan Hawkins. But draws fouls far less frequently and basically never sets up his teammates for buckets.

Kyle Bowen - Stretch 4 - 4th year from Australia. Despite being 6'8", most of his shots are catch and shoot 3s (Similar to Karaban). Sensational defender (2.2 steal%, 3.0 block%), the 3rd best defender in the entire country by RAPM. Good rebounder on both ends. His usage rate is so low, he's barely active on offense. Quote from my SMC alum friend "He can't score but he can win games." Occasionally plays the five.

Mitchell Saxen - Center - 3rd year from Seattle. Slightly taller Croswell-size big. Lives in the paint ala Clingan. 97% of his shot attempts at the rim. Elite offensive rebounder. Draws a bunch of fouls. Surprisingly poor finisher at the rim considering he's only shooting from there and is 6'10", a bit like Sanogo last year (but less jump hooks, more powering to basket and putbacks). Below average FT shooter.

Really well done once again. Thanks for making it easy for a new dad who can't stay up for West Coast regular season games

 

[Friarsnoop]

There are no such things as locks. Don't try jinxing us. Get that stuff out of here.

Same thing I said Friday. NCAA is about matchups, and Saint Mary's can't matchup with UConn. The only team with a chance to stop UConn from the Final Four is Arkansas, and I'd still favor UConn against them.