South Carolina UConn some thoughts

[Tonyc]

As long as UConn stays healthy and out of foul trouble UConn wins by double digets. If Wilson gets in foul trouble Uconn blows SC out. Remember this. UConn has won 98 in a row because of discipline and defense. I will take UConns quickness over SC height all day. They wont be able to keep up with UConn one on one. On defense SC will have to come out and guard UConn which will open up the middle for dribble drives and with their quickness SC problems. SC's strength is underneath. They lack outside shooters therefore UConn can double down.

In their past few games against top teams SC scored against Mississippi St 64 against Tenn 74 (in a loss) and against Kentucky 75. I would think against a heathly and not in foul trouble UConn Defense SC score less. Uconn will not be held to under 75 pts. SC is not a good 3 pt shooting team although Cuevas Moore has been good. IMO two Keys for UConn. Pressure the ball and force SC to dribble. Pressure Cuevas Moore forcing her to play quicker and attack Wilson. That will put alot of pressure on everybody else.

For those of you who are worried dont be. UConn has won 98 games in a row with defense and discipline and as surprised as everyone is with UConns undefeated season this year its all about D&D. A defense that no other team in WCBB has any idea how to execute. SC will not out talent us. SC will not force us into alot of turnovers. The only way UConn could lose this game at home is foul trouble and I would think as focused as the team is in this big game and with 100 looming I dont see foul trouble becoming an issue.

Final Score UConn 77 SC 63

 

[Charliebball]

As long as UConn stays healthy and out of foul trouble UConn wins by double digets. If Wilson gets in foul trouble Uconn blows SC out. Remember this. UConn has won 98 in a row because of discipline and defense. I will take UConns quickness over SC height all day. They wont be able to keep up with UConn one on one. On defense SC will have to come out and guard UConn which will open up the middle for dribble drives and with their quickness SC problems. SC's strength is underneath. They lack outside shooters therefore UConn can double down.

For those of you who are worried dont be. UConn has won 98 games in a row with defense and discipline and as surprised as everyone is with UConns undefeated season this year its all about D&D. A defense that no other team in WCBB has any idea how to execute. SC will not out talent us. SC will not force us into alot of turnovers. The only way UConn could lose this game at home is foul trouble and I would think as focused as the team is in this big game and with 100 looming I dont see foul trouble becoming an issue.

Final Score UConn 77 SC 63

You are most likely correct but SC is a formidable opponent that should not be underestimated.........they have a powerful inside game and very streaky outside shooters...........if UConn's front line gets in foul trouble and or if Davis, Gray or Moore are hitting their shots I could see a possible upset in the making............who knows, maybe this is the game that Geno wants his team to lose...........

 

[Sonny44]

You are most likely correct but SC is a formidable opponent that should not be underestimated...they have a powerful inside game and very streaky outside shooters....if UConn's front line gets in foul trouble and or if Davis, Gray or Moore are hitting their shots I could see a possible upset in the making..who knows, maybe this is the game that Geno wants his team to lose....

If you believe that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

 

[eebmg]

I think if you wanted a loss to teach a lesson, the time for it to happen was early in the season where the lessons could be integrated and Championship confidence restored. Nothing good would come from a loss (especially at home) this late where no other meaningful games would occur before the tournament.

Of course, it could still happen if fouls overwhelm us. I still remember how sick I was watching the MD game where because of our fouls, we could not play any defense and MD nearly came back. I just hope the refs let both teams play.

 

[Bliss]

Uconn wins unless there is early foul trouble with Gabby, Pheese, or Lou. Otherwise, I don't see the score as even being close.

 

[Charliebball]

Uconn wins unless there is early foul trouble with Gabby, Pheese, or Lou. Otherwise, I don't see the score as even being close.

Massey says UConn 76-64 with an 86%-14% winning prediction

UConn is #1 RPI - .7355
SC is #3 RPI - .6955 RPI

 

[huskyd]

I have two thoughts about SC based on two different experiences: watching them play and reading their stats. Watching them play, they seem to have improved at guard. Davis and Gray can score, and Cuevas more resembles the highly-touted talent not in evidence the last few years. Statistically, the guards aren't high scorers and shoot fairly low %s from 3 land. Yet seeing them in action left me with the impression that they're actually good shooters. Appears that SC is whatever team shows up on any given night. Even if their 2 bigs shoot their averages total (about 30 pts.), it won't be enough w/out some hot guard play. The Cockies appear to be an offensively challenged team. But UConn has not been as good defending the 3 as Geno would have liked. Monday the Husky guards will have to get out on Davis, Gray, and Cuevas. Geno may let Wilson and Coates do their thing, while having Pheesa and Williams concentrate on rebounding, igniting transitions and avoiding fouls. In other words, Coach may trade interior defense for the chance to run out for easy scores. Ringing up fouls is the Husky death knell. Add a solid shooting night from UConn's gunners, and SC may limp out of Gampel.

 

[ctfjr]

The lesson that comes out of losing a game? You are a loser

 

[Roundball fan]

I am thinking that
1. Gabby and Napheesa can not get in foul trouble. If Wilson and Coates get the ball contest the shot but don't foul.
2. We can not let guards drive the middle, if they drive we will have to switch and that will give Wilson and Coates easy shots.
3. Pressure the heck out of the ball so they have a hard time getting it to the bigs.
4. Gabby is going to get the shot at the foul line, she has to take it and if she is on could be lights out.
5. We have to have a good shooting night. Lou has got to be on.
6. Run, Run, Run I want to see the bigs bent over gasping for air.
7. Hope the Refs have a good game.

 

[Charliebball]

The lesson that comes out of losing a game? You are a loser

that's not what the coach has preached......for instance he said that it was that Stanford loss that really ignited the team..........

 

[Charliebball]

I am thinking that
1. Gabby and Napheesa can not get in foul trouble. If Wilson and Coates get the ball contest the shot but don't foul.
2. We can not let guards drive the middle, if they drive we will have to switch and that will give Wilson and Coates easy shots.
3. Pressure the heck out of the ball so they have a hard time getting it to the bigs.
4. Gabby is going to get the shot at the foul line, she has to take it and if she is on could be lights out.
5. We have to have a good shooting night. Lou has got to be on.
6. Run, Run, Run I want to see the bigs bent over gasping for air.
7. Hope the Refs have a good game.

unfortunately the refs may very well decide the game...........hopefully they will just get out of the way and let the two teams play............somehow I doubt that will be the case............

 

[Bestiarius]

Trying to analyze past stats and counting on opponents stars having great games with role players making the difference is meaningless. For some reason, key opponent players are more likely to have bad games when playing UCONN. I don't know why, it just seems to be what happens.

 

[Plebe]

Does it make much of a difference that South Carolina will have three full days to prepare for Monday's game, while UConn will only have one?

 

[hardcorehusky]

The game plan stays the same as it has the last few years - Gabby and Napheesa pull the bigs away from the basket. Drive past them or utilize other mismatches or backdoors near the basket. Coates away from the basket is a liability. Defensively, pressure the ball, double the bigs because we don't have a Tuck or Stewart who could handle the bigs with no help.

UCONN 75- SC 62

 

[HoopsFan21]

The interesting thing was two years ago when South Carolina came up to Gampel it was during a blizzard, and here we are a few days from South Carolina coming back up to Gampel and we're getting another blizzard!

 

[FanHam]

I have great respect for the size and skills of Wilson and Coates. Period. I've watched SC play several times this year and I don't see anything to be worried about beyond Wilson and Coates. Lots of dribbling and bad outside shooting seems to be their offense unless they get the ball to Wilson or Coates in a good position.

I'm sure UConn's coaching staff is intimately attuned to every aspect of SC's threats and non-threats.

Both Wilson and Coates seem more willing and able to run than in previous years, so I don't hold much stock in a plan to wear them down. UConn's passing and slashing to the basket will surely befuddle them. And Pheesa, Gabby, Natalie and Kyla are very capable of blocking either of them out.

Zero worries here and, if UConn's outside shooting eyes are sharp, this could be a runaway and perhaps a signature, late-season victory: number 100 in a row to be specific.

 

[VAMike23]

Uconn wins unless there is early foul trouble with Gabby, Pheese, or Lou. Otherwise, I don't see the score as even being close.

I think it's potentially close but agree that barring foul trouble for any of those 3, UCONN wins.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Foul Trouble is the Top Key Factor in the Game. If Gabby or Napheesa get into Foul Trouble and are only able to play 30 minutes, UConn most likely loses. However if UConn is able to hit their 3 point shots at a 50% clip, they can overcome Foul Trouble. So the two Keys are Foul Problems and the Ability of UConn to hit their three point shots.

 

[stwainfan]

Tennessee took the attack to Wilson and Coates. They got in foul trouble. That's a big reason Tennessee won. I am guessing UCONN will try something similar.

 

[victor64]

Does it make much of a difference that South Carolina will have three full days to prepare for Monday's game, while UConn will only have one?

My guess is that a significant portion of practice time this week has been geared toward South Carolina. They have already played SMU once and Geno's subtle lack of respect for the quality of competition in the league will be apparent during preparation.

 

[DefenseBB]

Does it make much of a difference that South Carolina will have three full days to prepare for Monday's game, while UConn will only have one?

Plebe, "yes, we need to take it one game at a time...Yada yada yada" however it is SMU after all and they will beat them without much thought.

That said, our unique weapon for added inside play is KLS who has shown a willingness to go in there when needed and neither Coates or the good but vastly overrated Wilson can stay with her. On Wilson, I do watch her closely but if she is as great as they keep saying, why the trouble in Tenn game? Why the shrinking against Duke? When they struggle offensively, where is she to take over. Coates is great against the smaller teams and lesser skilled but if she is forced to play at players equal or better, she struggles. That is why is I am dubious of them both being all-American.

I see potential for a consistent game that is close early but with our better physical conditioning hovers at 12-15 and widens to 20.

 

[chrissaran]

Control the turnovers, be monsters on the glass, look for the best shot, if the 3 isn't there, drive to the basket and get fouled. Most importantly, stay out of foul trouble. South Carolina has a lot to prove. They will be a handful despite predictions of a blowout.

 

[Carnac]

Trying to analyze past stats and counting on opponents stars having great games with role players making the difference is meaningless. For some reason, key opponent players are more likely to have bad games when playing UCONN. I don't know why, it just seems to be what happens.

I agree. Many of the marquee players that have played against UConn failed to score their average. It wold not surprise me if that were to be the case Monday night. Seldom does a player have a big night against the Huskies. If they do, it's usually from beyond the arc. SC (as a team) does not fair well from there. I look for UConn to hold SC to under 60 points.

 

[tomcat]

Tennessee took the attack to Wilson and Coates. They got in foul trouble. That's a big reason Tennessee won. I am guessing UCONN will try something similar.

I agree, but the question will be which players get called for fouls. If UConn bigs stay out of foul trouble, regardless of whether the SC bigs get in foul trouble, UConn has a great chance. If either SC big gets in foul trouble, SC will have a hard time staying in the game.

 

[BobbyJ]

If you believe that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Auriemma wants to go undefeated and win the NC so bad he can taste it but he'll never admit it.

 

[BobbyJ]

unfortunately the refs may very well decide the game....hopefully they will just get out of the way and let the two teams play..somehow I doubt that will be the case..

Nah, I want a closely called game especially inside. If they call all the contact in there Coates will be gone early and Wilson might not be far behind.

 

[BobbyJ]

Does it make much of a difference that South Carolina will have three full days to prepare for Monday's game, while UConn will only have one?

I doubt it. I believe Auriemma has had his game plan ready for a couple weeks and will just make minor tweaks now. He knows that team inside out.

 

[Bigpetunia]

Lots of thoughtful analysis here. Personally, I feel very comfortable about our favorite team's chances...I just wish there was less perseverating on our Board over the whole potential refereeing thing. Whatever the outcome, and if, God forbid, UConn should unexpectedly come out on the short end, I can promise that it will not be because the referees "stole" it from them, and further promise that we will all be able to point to lots of much more pertinent reasons for the loss. Whenever such a contingency, however unwelcome, is blamed on the refs...well, to me that's the classic losers' lament, more appropriately residing in other teams' fan bases than ours.

 

[Charliebball]

Lots of thoughtful analysis here. Personally, I feel very comfortable about our favorite team's chances..I just wish there was less perseverating on our Board over the whole potential refereeing thing. Whatever the outcome, and if, God forbid, UConn should unexpectedly come out on the short end, I can promise that it will not be because the referees "stole" it from them, and further promise that we will all be able to point to lots of much more pertinent reasons for the loss. Whenever such a contingency, however unwelcome, is blamed on the refs..well, to me that's the classic losers' lament, more appropriately residing in other teams' fan bases than ours.

I'm not really sure whether or not I am "perseverating" but when you have an extremely short bench and you're playing against one of the most physically imposing front lines in WBB you hope that the refs don't call ticky tack fouls on either team as happened in the Maryland game.........it's quite possible to play a great game and still get shut down by the all-mighty whistle..............

 

[drweo]

Tennessee took the attack to Wilson and Coates. They got in foul trouble. That's a big reason Tennessee won. I am guessing UCONN will try something similar.

Yes, exactly what Tennessee did to beat Co. Car.

In Monday's game, BOTH teams will try to get one another's inside players in foul trouble. As others have said, that will be a major factor in deciding the game. In the Tenn game, when both Coates and Wilson were in foul trouble and sitting, So. Car. clearly had no idea what to do on offense. I doubt that Dawn Staley makes the same mistake twice; my guess is that she will start them both but at some point begin to alternate them so the fouls do not accumulate at the same rate. For UConn, Collier and Williams have to minimize doing what often has gotten them fouls (reaching in; over the back), which they have been doing successfully lately.

It will be an interesting game to watch, seeing the strategies, the execution, the reactions....Cant wait.