South Carolina UConn some thoughts

[BobbyJ]

unfortunately the refs may very well decide the game....hopefully they will just get out of the way and let the two teams play..somehow I doubt that will be the case..

Nah, I want a closely called game especially inside. If they call all the contact in there Coates will be gone early and Wilson might not be far behind.

 

[BobbyJ]

Does it make much of a difference that South Carolina will have three full days to prepare for Monday's game, while UConn will only have one?

I doubt it. I believe Auriemma has had his game plan ready for a couple weeks and will just make minor tweaks now. He knows that team inside out.

 

[Bigpetunia]

Lots of thoughtful analysis here. Personally, I feel very comfortable about our favorite team's chances...I just wish there was less perseverating on our Board over the whole potential refereeing thing. Whatever the outcome, and if, God forbid, UConn should unexpectedly come out on the short end, I can promise that it will not be because the referees "stole" it from them, and further promise that we will all be able to point to lots of much more pertinent reasons for the loss. Whenever such a contingency, however unwelcome, is blamed on the refs...well, to me that's the classic losers' lament, more appropriately residing in other teams' fan bases than ours.

 

[Charliebball]

Lots of thoughtful analysis here. Personally, I feel very comfortable about our favorite team's chances..I just wish there was less perseverating on our Board over the whole potential refereeing thing. Whatever the outcome, and if, God forbid, UConn should unexpectedly come out on the short end, I can promise that it will not be because the referees "stole" it from them, and further promise that we will all be able to point to lots of much more pertinent reasons for the loss. Whenever such a contingency, however unwelcome, is blamed on the refs..well, to me that's the classic losers' lament, more appropriately residing in other teams' fan bases than ours.

I'm not really sure whether or not I am "perseverating" but when you have an extremely short bench and you're playing against one of the most physically imposing front lines in WBB you hope that the refs don't call ticky tack fouls on either team as happened in the Maryland game.........it's quite possible to play a great game and still get shut down by the all-mighty whistle..............

 

[drweo]

Tennessee took the attack to Wilson and Coates. They got in foul trouble. That's a big reason Tennessee won. I am guessing UCONN will try something similar.

Yes, exactly what Tennessee did to beat Co. Car.

In Monday's game, BOTH teams will try to get one another's inside players in foul trouble. As others have said, that will be a major factor in deciding the game. In the Tenn game, when both Coates and Wilson were in foul trouble and sitting, So. Car. clearly had no idea what to do on offense. I doubt that Dawn Staley makes the same mistake twice; my guess is that she will start them both but at some point begin to alternate them so the fouls do not accumulate at the same rate. For UConn, Collier and Williams have to minimize doing what often has gotten them fouls (reaching in; over the back), which they have been doing successfully lately.

It will be an interesting game to watch, seeing the strategies, the execution, the reactions....Cant wait.

 

[j66kicker]

I doubt it. I believe Auriemma has had his game plan ready for a couple weeks and will just make minor tweaks now. He knows that team inside out.

Although the players are encouraged to just focus on the next opponent, the "generic" drills they have been running in practice for a while may have suspiciously been focused on a hypothetical team with similar characteristics as SC.

 

[Tonyc]

I am not concerned on ticky tack fouls because the game is at UConn. At MD we were up 19 and blowing them out and with that big lead the refs called fouls on UConn not MD????? Reminded me of the ole games at Tenn. UConn is to quick for SC. If Wilson gets in foul trouble because of our quickness then SC can start their bus early. They are a good team not a great team. How many losses do they have and one is against Tenn. Im not really concerned. We fans have been worried about foul trouble all season and only at MD did we have a real problem late in the game. I dont see that happening again.

 

[BobbyJ]

Although the players are encouraged to just focus on the next opponent, the "generic" drills they have been running in practice for a while may have suspiciously been focused on a hypothetical team with similar characteristics as SC.

Oh yes. Coaches sometimes speak with forked tongues.

 

[bizarro aj]

SC scored 60 points tonight at home against an unranked auburn team. Do you really think that they will score more at gampel against uconn?

 

[Charliebball]

SC scored 60 points tonight at home against an unranked auburn team. Do you really think that they will score more at gampel against uconn?

We can use past results as a guide but if teams always played to their statistics there would be no need to play the games............

 

[Wbbfan1]

Auburn plays a pressing defense and only gives up an average of 61.2 points per game They don't have the players the elite teams have, but IMO they're exceeding the level of their talent because of their Defense. Auburn's pressing defense has caused problems for many of the teams they have played. Don't have the offensive skills/talent to go along with their defense. UConn gives up an average of 54.3 points per game and is ranked 11th in the country.

SC scored 60 points tonight at home against an unranked auburn team. Do you really think that they will score more at gampel against uconn?

 

[bizarro aj]

Just use the eye test. Is uconn better then Tennessee, and duke? Uconn will win this game easily just like they have the last 2 times they played sc. IMO theres only a couple teams that could threaten uconn and thats miss state and Florida state because they can run with uconn for the full 40mins.

 

[oldude]

Just use the eye test. Is uconn better then Tennessee, and duke? Uconn will win this game easily just like they have the last 2 times they played sc. IMO theres only a couple teams that could threaten uconn and thats miss state and Florida state because they can run with uconn for the full 40mins.

I agree with you on FSU, but MS St's offense bogs down when they face a good defensive team. I don't think the Bulldogs would present much of a challenge for the Huskies.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Just use the eye test. Is uconn better then Tennessee, and duke? Uconn will win this game easily just like they have the last 2 times they played sc. IMO theres only a couple teams that could threaten uconn and thats miss state and Florida state because they can run with uconn for the full 40mins.

Didn't we just beat Miss St last year something like 225-33? Have they really closed the gap in a year's time? Sure let's play them again. Maybe it won't be 61-12 at half this time, but is 47-25 at half that much better?

 

[BroadwayVa]

As long as UConn stays healthy and out of foul trouble UConn wins by double digets. If Wilson gets in foul trouble Uconn blows SC out. Remember this. UConn has won 98 in a row because of discipline and defense. I will take UConns quickness over SC height all day. They wont be able to keep up with UConn one on one. On defense SC will have to come out and guard UConn which will open up the middle for dribble drives and with their quickness SC problems. SC's strength is underneath. They lack outside shooters therefore UConn can double down.

In their past few games against top teams SC scored against Mississippi St 64 against Tenn 74 (in a loss) and against Kentucky 75. I would think against a heathly and not in foul trouble UConn Defense SC score less. Uconn will not be held to under 75 pts. SC is not a good 3 pt shooting team although Cuevas Moore has been good. IMO two Keys for UConn. Pressure the ball and force SC to dribble. Pressure Cuevas Moore forcing her to play quicker and attack Wilson. That will put alot of pressure on everybody else.

For those of you who are worried dont be. UConn has won 98 games in a row with defense and discipline and as surprised as everyone is with UConns undefeated season this year its all about D&D. A defense that no other team in WCBB has any idea how to execute. SC will not out talent us. SC will not force us into alot of turnovers. The only way UConn could lose this game at home is foul trouble and I would think as focused as the team is in this big game and with 100 looming I dont see foul trouble becoming an issue.

Final Score UConn 77 SC 63

Playing Devils Advocate---USC OVER sizes Uconn. With Gray and others the 3 is a real threat. It is a real possibility that those bigs will slow down Napheesa and Gabby. If KLS is guarded tightly by a 6'1 or 2 . 3 options are slowed--USC does not have to stop 3 or 5 of Uconn to win--just slow their scoring. Geno typically uses loads of help defense on good bigs--with 3 point threats and driving guards --that option does not always work.
Aj'a Jones or Wilson--whatever name she is currently using--isn't to be taken lightly. I don't seriously worry about turnovers--Kia and Saniya et al have proven their ability. i worry more about multiple shot s for USC and limited rebounds for uconn.

I certainly do not WANT this to happen---I want 100 and beyond-and at least a final 4 if not an NC.
No guestimate from me for the out come---but the game is at home for Uconn--big help.
But USC is not, as i see it--a gimme game!!

 

[BroadwayVa]

I'm not really sure whether or not I am "perseverating" but when you have an extremely short bench and you're playing against one of the most physically imposing front lines in WBB you hope that the refs don't call ticky tack fouls on either team as happened in the Maryland game...it's quite possible to play a great game and still get shut down by the all-mighty whistle...

\

I too worry about the whistle--but with or without foul trouble--Uconn is facing, as you pointed out, 2 good bigs--that may slow Napheesa and/or Gabby from scoring or rebounding--either will impact Uconn's offense.
Can you define perverating?? With this game my mental illness kick in and i see the glass half empty.

 

[bizarro aj]

Didn't we just beat Miss St last year something like 225-33? Have they really closed the gap in a year's time? Sure let's play them again. Maybe it won't be 61-12 at half this time, but is 47-25 at half that much better?

Yes they have closed the gap, did you not watch them dominate sc when they played them? They have a great defense and they run for the full 40mins which as i said only them and fsu does.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Didn't we just beat Miss St last year something like 225-33? Have they really closed the gap in a year's time? Sure let's play them again. Maybe it won't be 61-12 at half this time, but is 47-25 at half that much better?

I don't know if Miss is a threat to UConn or not--but forgetting that Stew, moriah, Tuck ,klS and kia were on that team--Napheesa nd Gabby had limited minutes---those two are not Stew, Moriah, Tuck. Miss St hardly can be the same team Uconn wupped by 172 point (using your score). Last year was last year--it's a whole new ball game.
Heck at year's end this team maybe considered even better than 15/16 team

 

[Coach]

Just a few questions and my opinion –

Will Lou’s slump continue from the beyond the arc? Hopefully not. She’s due to breakout of the slump.

Will SC’s guards get crazy hot and start raining 3’s? Unlikely, but you never know

Can SC run with UCONN the whole game? SC will be well rested but Coates and Wilson will tire in the 4th quarter as I don’t see Dawn resting them much.

Can UCONN keep Coates and Wilson from the glass? Not sure. They are very talented


Just a few thoughts –

I wonder how the refs will be calling the game – ticky tac fouls or will they let them play? Offensively, I am not sure if SC can withstand one of their Bigs in foul trouble - more Wilson than Coates. Defensively, I’ll be generous and call it a wash and not give an advantage to either team.

Although I think Pheesa and Gaby will try to pull Coates and Wilson away from the basket, I do not think SC will go too far out if Gabby is too far past the free throw line. I think SC will dare her to shoot. Gabby will knock some down but her jump shot is not consistent enough yet.

The UCONN guards will need to attack, attack and attack some more. SC is so talented UCONN will have some balls blocked but hopefully they can draw some fouls forcing Coates or Wilson to spend some quality minutes on the bench.

Which leads me to the difference maker – Lou. Lou? Yes Lou. I think Pheesa and Gabby will have their hands full on both ends of the floor - I will be happy if it’s a draw. Lou has the length that when she drives to basket it’ll be very difficult to defend. She has the height to shoot over other guards especially when she runs curls by the free throw line. I don’t think SC has anyone outside of Wilson who is tall and quick enough to cover her and SC will not have Wilson cover Lou.

I am looking forward to a really good game. My prediction is UCONN 78-66

 

[warbler1055]

Agreed, Lou is the difference maker. If her shots fall then UConn wins easily. If not, then Kia and Chong need to make those shots. Wilson and Coates will keep Pheesa and Gabby busy and neutralized. They are taller, bigger and stronger. Lou's last few games were inconsistent at best. She started really slow, not great in a competitive game. So we have speed, skill, execution against size, physical play, possibly slower team. Should be an excellent game!!! UConn 80-62.

 

[jcoton56]

I am thinking that
1. Gabby and Napheesa can not get in foul trouble. If Wilson and Coates get the ball contest the shot but don't foul.
2. We can not let guards drive the middle, if they drive we will have to switch and that will give Wilson and Coates easy shots.
3. Pressure the heck out of the ball so they have a hard time getting it to the bigs.
4. Gabby is going to get the shot at the foul line, she has to take it and if she is on could be lights out.
5. We have to have a good shooting night. Lou has got to be on.
6. Run, Run, Run I want to see the bigs bent over gasping for air.
7. Hope the Refs have a good game.

Agree with you roundball and would add that if Chong finds herself unguarded or loosely guarded she must make them pay early and often. If they are forced to guard Chong, it will be much easier for everyone.

 

[Florida Fan]

Uconn wins unless there is early foul trouble with Gabby, Pheese, or Lou. Otherwise, I don't see the score as even being close.

Yeah, UCONN wins IF-----those negatives don't happen, the foul troubles, injuries, SC guards shoot lights out. Remember, Cuevas comes off the bench, Dawn's guard transfers are just that good. I'm counting on Staley sticking to her dump down strategy, Gabby intercepting and their bigs getting frustrated. When all they had was Mitchell from the outside, it was easy to double her and swarm the bigs. This time around, the banners won't be as intimidating. Just say'n.

 

[SCGamecock]

Auburn plays a pressing defense and only gives up an average of 61.2 points per game They don't have the players the elite teams have, but IMO they're exceeding the level of their talent because of their Defense. Auburn's pressing defense has caused problems for many of the teams they have played. Don't have the offensive skills/talent to go along with their defense. UConn gives up an average of 54.3 points per game and is ranked 11th in the country.

Exactly. The other poster also failed to mention that our freshmen (the end of our bench basically) played significant minutes in both halves and Dawn was tinkering with the lineup for most of the game. At one point we had Bradshaw (our other frosh pg) out there with starters... then we had Victoria Patrick (another frosh) at SG and Harrigan at PF.. I was just confused the entire time so I stopped trying to figure out what was going through Dawn's head at that moment.

Not sure why Dawn is tinkering with lineups a few days before UConn but that stood out to me.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

I see this as being a closely played game, with UConn extending ir into double digits through the second half. Not a blowout, just a general we-score-4-baskets-to-your-3 erosion. Things that can change this:

• Early foul trouble on either side;
• Gray and Coates: 'A' game, or 'C' game;
• Cuevas finally "getting it" and playing under control for 85% of the game, the other 15% in occasional 100 mph spurts of Mayhem;
• The Unspeakable.

I still see UConn winning the game, but those four items could make it a single-digit win or a 30 point blowout.

 

[JoePgh]

Not sure why Dawn is tinkering with lineups a few days before UConn but that stood out to me.

Maybe for the same reason that Geno tinkered with his lineup two days before this game in 2015. I believe that was to keep his regulars fresh for the big game. Secondarily, it meant that the bench players would be slightly more seasoned if they were needed in the big game.

As stated elsewhere, I think Geno might do a similar thing tomorrow against SMU, and I hope he does.