the Q
Yowie Wowie. We’re gonna have so much fun here
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In the point spread thread, I suggested that ND +12 was an easy bet. I'm now re-thinking this.
You should definitely bet on ND in this game, but not the spread. Bet the moneyline.
This game will go one of two ways:
1) We come out like we did against SC and nobody can stop us. We probably win by 20.
2) ND plays us tough, gets us out of our game, and makes 3's. The game is close down to the final few minutes, where we've typically struggled against them.
Basically, we will either blow them out, or lose a close game, probably in equal proportion. The spread accurately captures this. The moneyline woefully underestimates ND's chances of winning.
Have we done that well against anyone in close games?
Ms st, multiple ND games, Stanford. Etc
Truly close games. Even the Maryland game last year was a little deceiving.