So, How Deep Will We Go? | Page 4 | The Boneyard

So, How Deep Will We Go?

How deep a run will we make?


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Admittedly, it's a pretty thick limb, but Temple is not making the tournament this year.
No, they are not. I'm talking more generally. I think this will be a 4ish bid league with 5 teams generally vying for those 5 spots. In "off years" it gets 2-3. In great years maybe 5 but Temple isn't getting a bid this year. In some respects, this is the A-10 2.0. A bunch of pretty good teams at the top and a bunch of pretty terrible ones bringing up the rear.
 
There is no such thing as a 3-4 bid league.
They really don't give out bids based on conference. That's like saying the ACC is a 3-bid league, or that it's a 7-bid league, or the old Big East was an 11-bid league. Those all happened, and they all meant nothing the following year. You get in based on what you do, that's it. Conference matters only because of who you get the opportunity to play.
We might have a 4-bid league this year and get 6 next year, or just the conference champion. But there is no such thing as a conference quota.
Its true that there aren't X-bid leagues. What we're talking about is more a case of averages or typicals which in any given year can be modified. It is really a measure of league strength/depth. Occasionally some lesser conference snags 2 bids, but it is normally a 1-bid league. Sometimes a power conference gets 3 rather than its usual 6-7, but those are outliers.
 
Lunardi's latest bracket has a fairly impressive 5 AAC teams out of 10 in the Tournament. However, nobody -- not even impressive Cincinnati or resurgent Louisville -- is higher than a 5 seed. That's the new reality for us. We're going to have to be solidly a top 10 team to have a chance at a top-4 seed and, consequently, a legitimate shot at a deep run.

It's who do you play, who did you beat, and who did you avoid losing to.

Take away the Stanford and Houston losses, and we're a 3 seed or so.

Cincy and Louisville are as low as they are because of weak OOC performances. Louisville does not have a signature win; Cincy has Pitt.

While we need to get out of the conference for a number of reasons, if we schedule well OOC, and win the games we're supposed to, our seeding should be pretty decent going forward. There's a lot of season left. If we beat the cupcakes on our schedule, win the remaining home games (Memphis-SMU-Cincy), and get one of Cincy-Louisville road games, the team ends up 26-5 or so. With a 6-3 record against RPI Top 50 (based on today). That would get us a good seed. It's about winning, though...
 
Honestly, so many factors in seeding. Other teams could plummet like OSU, Oregon, Baylor have done the past two weeks. 7 losses so far this week in the top 25 with 20 games and 22 teams to play this weekend.
 
Its true that there aren't X-bid leagues. What we're talking about is more a case of averages or typicals which in any given year can be modified. It is really a measure of league strength/depth. Occasionally some lesser conference snags 2 bids, but it is normally a 1-bid league. Sometimes a power conference gets 3 rather than its usual 6-7, but those are outliers.
That's not the direction of this discussion. It's been, this is a 3-4 bid league going forward, so we better be sure we're one of those three or four. And that's just not at all how it works.
 
A two or three seed is still attainable if UConn goes 11-1 or 10-2 over the final twelve games and then wins the conference tournament. It's a long shot, but conceivable.
 
.-.
@ cincy is huge. Not to overlook the next two games, but cincy is an elite defensive team. I'll wait to judge the ceiling until then
 
That's not the direction of this discussion. It's been, this is a 3-4 bid league going forward, so we better be sure we're one of those three or four. And that's just not at all how it works.
Of course there is not a quota. The AAc gets 4, the MAAC gets 1, the Big East gets 3. But leagues establish themselves over time as falling within a range. In any given year the Big 10 might get 3 and the AAC 6, but over the long haul, you can more or less predict with some accuracy how many bids a given league will get. And in part because of how RPI works and how Strength of Schedule is over weighted in the formula (there have been several analytic pieces on this subject recently, though they tend to be in statistical journals rather than sporting ones so they get little play) conference strength tends to be a self-fulfilling prophesy and that contributes to the number of bids.
 
Take away the Stanford and Houston losses, and we're a 3 seed or so.

Cincy and Louisville are as low as they are because of weak OOC performances. Louisville does not have a signature win; Cincy has Pitt.
@Uconn is the best win they will get unless win @Cincy/Memphis
 
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