So, How Deep Will We Go?

[BigErnMcCracken]

Because we are better than Vermont. That is all you need to have a chance against Syracuse. This isn't even their best team, and I recall beating them fairly recently. It's not like they have an extensive list of quality wins either.

Oy vey. Vermont? They're 3-0 against the top 25 and 5-0 against the top 50. Most importantly, they've beaten everyone put in front of them, and for the most part fairly easily. They are markedly better than anyone we've played so far this year, and I'm including Florida. Just saying "we're better than Vermont" is silly.

 

[superjohn]

Not sure why any of you would want to play Syracuse and don't know what people are talking about when they say Syracuse was better last year.

 

[Hi-Low]

haha @ this comment. You think Daniels is "getting there" exactly 1 game after he completely no-showed at home in our biggest game of the year against Louisville? I love your spirit. I question your sanity.

Daniels flopped vs L'Ville but the game prior @ Memphis 23/11, 14/7 vs Fla, 48% from 3 on yr, rebounds on the upswing...yeah, I think Daniels is coming along. I expect 15/8 a game the rest of the way...if not we have problems.

 

[August_West]

I hope in proven wrong, but I now think the ceiling for this team is lower than I expected in November. Like Kemba; having Bazz is the great equalizer, but good teams will be able to make life difficult for him. If we were getting consistency out of Deandre then I would feel better, but there is nothing I've seen this year that indicates we won't be getting exactly what we've been getting for the last 2 years out of him; moments of brilliance followed long periods of total absence.

Also, rebounding aside ( obvious flaw is obvious) we are not nearly as good defensively as I had hoped. Even in the temple romp we were giving up some really easy buckets. I thought our ball pressure would really create havoc for other teams, but I've only seen flashes of it.

Much of it is that even now I don't feel like we have a go to rotation yet. So floor chemistry in defensive end is lacking.

In my estimation we are a first weekend team in the tourney. Earlier I thought we were a second weekend team.

 

[Jaybo]

First problem would be actually making it to the cuse game,second is would our guys show up or play like they did againest Louisville.


Plus I think it's bad if were the 8/9 seed.

 

[jleves]

Anyone looking forward to or happy with an 8-1 game against Syracuse is insane. Just because we beat them last year at home in a relatively meaningless game does not in any way indicate success this year at a neutral court. And do you really think MSG is going to be neutral with Cuse the 1 seed and UConn an 8 seed? Far easier to get lots of fans to buy tickets when you're the one seed. They have hardly been tested this year and have just taken care of business. Our offense has looked really bad against good zones this year and they play great zone. Finally, with the new rules, a good/great zone team has a lot of advantage in not getting extra fouls called against them. I think the rules will be relaxed, modified to some extent next year, but this year is the ultimate time to be a zone defense team. Just like it's about the worst year to play a pressing in your face defense like Ville and it has cost them. The deck is just about stacked for Syracuse to make a run this year - games at MSG, hand check rules. No way I want that bracket.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Anyone looking forward to or happy with an 8-1 game against Syracuse is insane. Just because we beat them last year at home in a relatively meaningless game does not in any way indicate success this year at a neutral court. And do you really think MSG is going to be neutral with Cuse the 1 seed and UConn an 8 seed? Far easier to get lots of fans to buy tickets when you're the one seed. They have hardly been tested this year and have just taken care of business. Our offense has looked really bad against good zones this year and they play great zone. Finally, with the new rules, a good/great zone team has a lot of advantage in not getting extra fouls called against them. I think the rules will be relaxed, modified to some extent next year, but this year is the ultimate time to be a zone defense team. Just like it's about the worst year to play a pressing in your face defense like Ville and it has cost them. The deck is just about stacked for Syracuse to make a run this year - games at MSG, hand check rules. No way I want that bracket.

Even worse is a potential 1-8 game against Syracuse in Buffalo, which is hosting the first weekend games. I think MSG has a regional final.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Interesting topic to discuss, but also tough to have at this point. A couple of things to think about. When comparing Uconn to other teams in the AAC regarding seeding, remember that UConn has the best OOC resume in the conference with wins over Florida, Harvard, Washington, etc. Is it the best OOC profile we've ever had? No, but its better than Ville, Memphis, Cincy and SMU. UConn has work it do in conference play, but their OOC resume is a plus, where those other teams (Memphis is probably the exception) don't have that lean on.

UConn really needs to take care of business with the remaining games against bad teams in the AAC. By my count that is 7 games...Rutgers X2, South Florida X2, @Central Florida, @Temple and Houston. I see no reason why they shouldnt go 7-0 if they come to play. As others have correctly pointed out, this team is wildly inconsistent so going 7-0 is certainly no guarantee. Look at the first Houston game. But 7 wins there would get us to 22 wins.

We then have 5 games against teams either going to the tournament, or borderline. Cincy X2, Memphis, SMU, and @Ville. I'd like to think we can hold serve at home and go at least 3-2. If that happens, we are now up to 25 wins. Win a game or two in the conference tourney, and I could see this team being a 4 or 5 seed. Not a huge difference between the two.

I think the ceiling for this team is probably the 2nd weekend. But as we saw in 2011, if you can get there, then who knows what happens. I think the difference between teams 1-10 and the rest of the field this year is so small, that you will see a ton of upsets early in the tournament.

My X-factor in all of this is DeAndre. If he plays well, I think we will be in every game we play, even against top teams. And then we have a clutch player in Shabazz down the stretch.

 

[jleves]

Even worse is a potential 1-8 game against Syracuse in Buffalo, which is hosting the first weekend games. I think MSG has a regional final.

Yeah - that would be even worse. I didn't look it up - just responding to others who mentioned MSG. That's about the worst case scenario possible and most likely that the tourney committee sets it up.

 

[CTBasketball]

Chances of playing Syracuse in the 2nd round like Lunardi predicts.....5%

Chances of playing in the 2nd round.....75%

 

[ASweet3781]

I've been too afraid to check our SOS and RPI.

We are headed to an 8 seed? Finishing with about 8 losses?

Is this the new normal in the AAC?

 

[Inyatkin]

We'll get a 5 seed, and play 12 seed Providence in the first round. And the world will end.

 

[Husky15]

How does Lunardi have UNC as an 11 seed??? I understand they beat michigan st, Kentucky, and Louisville but c'mon they're awful!

 

[jleves]

How does Lunardi have UNC as an 11 seed??? I understand they beat michigan st, Kentucky, and Louisville but c'mon they're awful!

You answered your own question - because they beat those teams. They are one of the last four in and when you have wins against those teams this year, you get in over other bubble teams with similar other stats. If they keep trending the way they are, they'll fall off the bubble.

 

[CTBasketball]

I've been too afraid to check our SOS and RPI.

We are headed to an 8 seed? Finishing with about 8 losses?

Is this the new normal in the AAC?

Anywhere between 8-10 losses would probably land us around last 4 in or NIT.

 

[ASweet3781]

Anywhere between 8-10 losses would probably land us around last 4 in or NIT.

Umm, really?

I am being completely serious. Is our situation that dire?

We had 6 losses in 2002 and got a 2 seed. 9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed. 8 makes us a bubble team in this new league? Seeing we still play at Louisville, Cincy 2 times, and Memphis again and possibly again down there in the tournament it's almost a given we will have around that many losses.

And that's not taking into account another Houston like effort against a team we should beat.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed.

Anything jump out at you as to why that might have been the case? We play one team the rest of the way that matches anything in that Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville gauntlet they ran before selection Sunday. Not to mention the Maui wins, Texas, etc.

 

[selles]

Anything jump out at you as to why that might have been the case? We play one team the rest of the way that matches anything in that Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville gauntlet they ran before selection Sunday. Not to mention the Maui wins, Texas, etc.

Which perfectly highlights why it's kind of crazy to worry about the tournament or seeding at this point. Had we lost against DePaul or GTown, we would have been on the bubble in 2011. But we didn't, then we ended up with a 3 seed. Then we won it all.

At this point in the season Lunardi exists solely for website hits. It's meaningless.

Here's what we have to do. Win the next game. Then win the next game after that. Develop. Grow. We can take stock of where we are a month from now. In the meantime, it's all just noise.

 

[HobokenHusky]

I predict balls deep...

#ElbowDeepNoLube

 

[CTBasketball]

Umm, really?

I am being completely serious. Is our situation that dire?

We had 6 losses in 2002 and got a 2 seed. 9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed. 8 makes us a bubble team in this new league? Seeing we still play at Louisville, Cincy 2 times, and Memphis again and possibly again down there in the tournament it's almost a given we will have around that many losses.

And that's not taking into account another Houston like effort against a team we should beat.

If we didn't win the Big East Tournament in 2011 we were a 7-10 seed. Our conference is eons worse than the Big East, who would regularly get 7-8 teams in the tournament. The AAC would be a success if it got 3 or 4.

Look at Conference USA a few years ago. Memphis went 26-9, won the regular season and CUSA tournament and got an 8 seed. Now our conference is a bit better than the old CUSA, but expecting a seed better than 4 or 5 with our current losses is unrealistic. We're going to get placed between 4 thru NIT based on our performance in February.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

. In the meantime, it's all just noise.

Everything posted on here is just noise. That's pretty much the purpose of a message board.

To your broader point, the 2011 team had much more abundant opportunities to amass quality wins. That was my point of referencing the murderous BET gauntlet.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I hate to say it but at this point our absolute ceiling is about in line with what the baseline of what our expectations were at the beginning of the year -- a 28-6 record and a #4 seed.

More realistically, we're looking at something like 24-9, a #7/8 seed, a challenging first round game followed possibly by a semi-road game against a #1/2 seed in round 2. Somewhat disappointing for what might be a high-water-mark over this 4-5-year period.

I hope we really get on a roll in February and show something more than what we have so far.

 

[selles]

Everything posted on here is just noise. That's pretty much the purpose of a message board.

To your broader point, the 2011 team had much more abundant opportunities to amass quality wins. That was my point of referencing the murderous BET gauntlet.

Yeah, I took your point and it's valid. My point, which I think is also valid, is that it's pretty early to get fired up over seeding because there's a month plus of hoops to be played.

And no, I don't agree that the purpose of a message board is noise. I've gotten a lot of interesting info and ideas from posts on here. Noise is the problem with message boards, not the purpose.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Sure, but if you say that speculating about seeding is just noise so is speculating about recruits, lineups, coaching hires . . . it's all noise.

They've got 12 games left. Obviously it'd be great to win them all but I'd be pretty satisfied if they went 10-2 with the Ls being at Cincy and Louisville, which would put them at 25-6. What seed that would warrant I have no idea. Really wish they could have that Texas roadtrip, or at least the Houston game, back.

 

[champs99and04]

The only "predictions" we can realistically entertain right now are the rest of the regular season and a postseason seeding. That being said, I'll predict an 8-4 finish with a split v Cincy, Memphis stealing one here, loss at Ville and one more WTF loss that will hopefully give us karma for a WTF win in March (that's how it works right?) That should be good for a 6/7 seed especially if we can get another marquee win in the league tourney. From there, give me a 2011-type bracket or a chance to play at MSG and that's all I can ask for.

If we go 8-4 in our final twelve games that would be a failure, and definitely not deserving of a 6 or 7 seed. We have four games remaining with Cincy, Memphis, and Louisville, and another one against a decent SMU team. Aside from those five games, it's cream puff city. Going 8-4 would mean we lost to nearly every team on our schedule with a pulse, or, dropped another game or two to a Houston type team. Neither result would be acceptable IMO. This team has too much talent to settle for 8-4 with the schedule they're playing down the stretch - 10-2 should be the goal, with 11-1 being a realistic possibility. Take care of business at home, steal a road game against Cincinnati or Louisville, and treat the other three road games (@ Rutgers, @ Temple, @ USF), like they're your national championship. Do all that and you're 10-2 or 11-1 at the end of it.

As far as a potential tournament match-ups are concerned, the only three teams that scare me are Kansas, Kentucky, and Arizona. Aside from those three, I'm going to go into every game feeling like we have the best player on the floor and a decent chance to win. It's not like Syracuse is a great match-up for us, but I'd much rather play them than one of the three I just mentioned. Our game against them last season wasn't a fluke. Kromah, Giffey, and Daniels are all strong defensive forwards and the match-ups in the back court favor us. I certainly wouldn't want to play them in Buffalo, because it would be a virtual home game for them and they'd inevitably get every single call. That would probably be too much to overcome given our limitations up front. If we play them in MSG, I'd like our chances a lot - not saying we'd win, but I feel pretty comfortable saying it would at least come down to the final few minutes.