So, How Deep Will We Go?

[ASweet3781]

I've been too afraid to check our SOS and RPI.

We are headed to an 8 seed? Finishing with about 8 losses?

Is this the new normal in the AAC?

 

[Inyatkin]

We'll get a 5 seed, and play 12 seed Providence in the first round. And the world will end.

 

[Husky15]

How does Lunardi have UNC as an 11 seed??? I understand they beat michigan st, Kentucky, and Louisville but c'mon they're awful!

 

[jleves]

How does Lunardi have UNC as an 11 seed??? I understand they beat michigan st, Kentucky, and Louisville but c'mon they're awful!

You answered your own question - because they beat those teams. They are one of the last four in and when you have wins against those teams this year, you get in over other bubble teams with similar other stats. If they keep trending the way they are, they'll fall off the bubble.

 

[CTBasketball]

I've been too afraid to check our SOS and RPI.

We are headed to an 8 seed? Finishing with about 8 losses?

Is this the new normal in the AAC?

Anywhere between 8-10 losses would probably land us around last 4 in or NIT.

 

[ASweet3781]

Anywhere between 8-10 losses would probably land us around last 4 in or NIT.

Umm, really?

I am being completely serious. Is our situation that dire?

We had 6 losses in 2002 and got a 2 seed. 9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed. 8 makes us a bubble team in this new league? Seeing we still play at Louisville, Cincy 2 times, and Memphis again and possibly again down there in the tournament it's almost a given we will have around that many losses.

And that's not taking into account another Houston like effort against a team we should beat.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed.

Anything jump out at you as to why that might have been the case? We play one team the rest of the way that matches anything in that Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville gauntlet they ran before selection Sunday. Not to mention the Maui wins, Texas, etc.

 

[selles]

Anything jump out at you as to why that might have been the case? We play one team the rest of the way that matches anything in that Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville gauntlet they ran before selection Sunday. Not to mention the Maui wins, Texas, etc.

Which perfectly highlights why it's kind of crazy to worry about the tournament or seeding at this point. Had we lost against DePaul or GTown, we would have been on the bubble in 2011. But we didn't, then we ended up with a 3 seed. Then we won it all.

At this point in the season Lunardi exists solely for website hits. It's meaningless.

Here's what we have to do. Win the next game. Then win the next game after that. Develop. Grow. We can take stock of where we are a month from now. In the meantime, it's all just noise.

 

[HobokenHusky]

I predict balls deep...

#ElbowDeepNoLube

 

[CTBasketball]

Umm, really?

I am being completely serious. Is our situation that dire?

We had 6 losses in 2002 and got a 2 seed. 9 losses in 2011 and got a 3 seed. 8 makes us a bubble team in this new league? Seeing we still play at Louisville, Cincy 2 times, and Memphis again and possibly again down there in the tournament it's almost a given we will have around that many losses.

And that's not taking into account another Houston like effort against a team we should beat.

If we didn't win the Big East Tournament in 2011 we were a 7-10 seed. Our conference is eons worse than the Big East, who would regularly get 7-8 teams in the tournament. The AAC would be a success if it got 3 or 4.

Look at Conference USA a few years ago. Memphis went 26-9, won the regular season and CUSA tournament and got an 8 seed. Now our conference is a bit better than the old CUSA, but expecting a seed better than 4 or 5 with our current losses is unrealistic. We're going to get placed between 4 thru NIT based on our performance in February.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

. In the meantime, it's all just noise.

Everything posted on here is just noise. That's pretty much the purpose of a message board.

To your broader point, the 2011 team had much more abundant opportunities to amass quality wins. That was my point of referencing the murderous BET gauntlet.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I hate to say it but at this point our absolute ceiling is about in line with what the baseline of what our expectations were at the beginning of the year -- a 28-6 record and a #4 seed.

More realistically, we're looking at something like 24-9, a #7/8 seed, a challenging first round game followed possibly by a semi-road game against a #1/2 seed in round 2. Somewhat disappointing for what might be a high-water-mark over this 4-5-year period.

I hope we really get on a roll in February and show something more than what we have so far.

 

[selles]

Everything posted on here is just noise. That's pretty much the purpose of a message board.

To your broader point, the 2011 team had much more abundant opportunities to amass quality wins. That was my point of referencing the murderous BET gauntlet.

Yeah, I took your point and it's valid. My point, which I think is also valid, is that it's pretty early to get fired up over seeding because there's a month plus of hoops to be played.

And no, I don't agree that the purpose of a message board is noise. I've gotten a lot of interesting info and ideas from posts on here. Noise is the problem with message boards, not the purpose.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Sure, but if you say that speculating about seeding is just noise so is speculating about recruits, lineups, coaching hires . . . it's all noise.

They've got 12 games left. Obviously it'd be great to win them all but I'd be pretty satisfied if they went 10-2 with the Ls being at Cincy and Louisville, which would put them at 25-6. What seed that would warrant I have no idea. Really wish they could have that Texas roadtrip, or at least the Houston game, back.

 

[champs99and04]

The only "predictions" we can realistically entertain right now are the rest of the regular season and a postseason seeding. That being said, I'll predict an 8-4 finish with a split v Cincy, Memphis stealing one here, loss at Ville and one more WTF loss that will hopefully give us karma for a WTF win in March (that's how it works right?) That should be good for a 6/7 seed especially if we can get another marquee win in the league tourney. From there, give me a 2011-type bracket or a chance to play at MSG and that's all I can ask for.

If we go 8-4 in our final twelve games that would be a failure, and definitely not deserving of a 6 or 7 seed. We have four games remaining with Cincy, Memphis, and Louisville, and another one against a decent SMU team. Aside from those five games, it's cream puff city. Going 8-4 would mean we lost to nearly every team on our schedule with a pulse, or, dropped another game or two to a Houston type team. Neither result would be acceptable IMO. This team has too much talent to settle for 8-4 with the schedule they're playing down the stretch - 10-2 should be the goal, with 11-1 being a realistic possibility. Take care of business at home, steal a road game against Cincinnati or Louisville, and treat the other three road games (@ Rutgers, @ Temple, @ USF), like they're your national championship. Do all that and you're 10-2 or 11-1 at the end of it.

As far as a potential tournament match-ups are concerned, the only three teams that scare me are Kansas, Kentucky, and Arizona. Aside from those three, I'm going to go into every game feeling like we have the best player on the floor and a decent chance to win. It's not like Syracuse is a great match-up for us, but I'd much rather play them than one of the three I just mentioned. Our game against them last season wasn't a fluke. Kromah, Giffey, and Daniels are all strong defensive forwards and the match-ups in the back court favor us. I certainly wouldn't want to play them in Buffalo, because it would be a virtual home game for them and they'd inevitably get every single call. That would probably be too much to overcome given our limitations up front. If we play them in MSG, I'd like our chances a lot - not saying we'd win, but I feel pretty comfortable saying it would at least come down to the final few minutes.

 

[SubbaBub]

Oy vey. Vermont? They're 3-0 against the top 25 and 5-0 against the top 50. Most importantly, they've beaten everyone put in front of them, and for the most part fairly easily. They are markedly better than anyone we've played so far this year, and I'm including Florida. Just saying "we're better than Vermont" is silly.

It was intended to be silly, they're called jokes. Are they a top 5 team, yes. Are they Wooden's UCLA, no. Does Cuse have a history of underperforming in the NCAA, yes. Has UCONN beaten them with lesser teams, regularly.

It would be a great game that I think we'd have a chance to win. Why is that such a difficult concept?

 

[bmayuc]

Daniels flopped vs L'Ville but the game prior @ Memphis 23/11, 14/7 vs Fla, 48% from 3 on yr, rebounds on the upswing...yeah, I think Daniels is coming along. I expect 15/8 a game the rest of the way...if not we have problems.

you will probably get 15/8. the issue with daniels throughout his career is he'll go 23/12 vs memphis and then 3/4 against louisville. That actually averages 13/8 so looks like you got what you wanted!

I'm just saying you can't count on a guy like that. You have to hope he starts hot or else he may dissappear.

 

[Inyatkin]

The years where we had high seeds with multiple losses had a common thread, which was the closing stretch. In 02, 05 and obviously 11 we were playing our best at the end of the year and it reflected in the seeding. The NCAA says they discarded the "Last 10" metric on the selection committee, but it's hard to believe it doesn't factor. If we won 10 straight including tournament wins over Louisville and Memphis to close the year you'd have to believe that'd be huge.

 

[SixRings]

Oy vey. Vermont? They're 3-0 against the top 25 and 5-0 against the top 50. Most importantly, they've beaten everyone put in front of them, and for the most part fairly easily. They are markedly better than anyone we've played so far this year, and I'm including Florida. Just saying "we're better than Vermont" is silly.

Oy vey. Syracuse. Throw out all of the match up data, heights, rebound stats and shooting percentages. The reason we are fearless of an 18 -0 Syracuse is because we are a tournament team and they are not. They did well in the past BE tourneys but rarely win when they are supposed to win in the NCAA's. Last year was an exception. It's their beloved nose-picker that that doesn't have it in his DNA. Unless we are talking about Helms - then I concede. They were clutch without the shot clock.

 

[UconnDon]

Until we get to 23 wins I'm not taking anything for granted. Bazz is the only player I trust to show up big every game....Daniels is getting there though. In the tourney Bazz can maybe get us through the first weekend after that he will need big time help.

"Daniels is getting there"?? Certainly not based on the Louisville game. I'm not so sure he has put 2 games back-to-back of effort and results. How is he getting there?

 

[Husky25]

Oy vey. Syracuse. Throw out all of the match up data, heights, rebound stats and shooting percentages. The reason we are fearless of an 18 -0 Syracuse is because we are a tournament team and they are not. They did well in the past BE tourneys but rarely win when they are supposed to win in the NCAA's. Last year was an exception. It's their beloved nose-picker that that doesn't have it in his DNA. Unless we are talking about Helms - then I concede. They were clutch without the shot clock.

That's the #1 problem with running the 2-3 as their primary...nay...only defense. Theoretically it is easy to beat the 2-3. The difficulty lies in the execution. It takes a combination of 1. Transition offense, 2. Flash to the foul line for a 15 footer, and 3. Shoot 3 pointers over the D. Mid major schools litter the lower seeds and by and large they have experience and good guard play who have the ability to drain it from a distance. Syracuse relies that their opponents will not be able to effectively achieve these three objectives consistently throughout the game.

 

[Kitaman]

Match-ups, Health (e.g. injuries), effort, intensity, and of course LUCK! (Getting and staying hot helps a lot but that is never guaranteed.)

If all of that remains positive and in our favor we can have an enjoyable deep run. This team needs all 5 elements every night in the Tourney, unlike many other deep run teams of ours in the past. Those teams could advance without one or two of them. This team can't.

The bottom line is that unfortunately this squad is unpredictable.

 

[Husky25]

Match-ups, Health (e.g. injuries), effort, intensity, and of course LUCK! (Getting and staying hot helps a lot but that is never guaranteed.)

If all of that remains positive and in our favor we can have an enjoyable deep run. This team needs all 5 elements every night in the Tourney, unlike many other deep run teams of ours in the past. Those teams could advance without one or two of them. This team can't.

The bottom line is that unfortunately this squad is unpredictable.

That's what makes it fun interesting to watch. I'm glad there are only two games in a week. It gives my agita a chance to subside.

 

[Inyatkin]

"Daniels is getting there"?? Certainly not based on the Louisville game. I'm not so sure he has put 2 games back-to-back of effort and results. How is he getting there?

Must be really fun to be a fan in your world. A guy puts up 31 and 12 and the response is, "yeah, so?" He killed Memphis. He had a bad game against Louisville. So what? Louisville is good. Is there any way to enjoy good things without thinking "we'll see"? Just enjoy it for five minutes.

 

[freescooter]

How deep we go is very much a function of seeding. I recently read a paper that projected how deep a team goes based on its seed. Bottom line is if you're not a 3 or higher, it is very difficult to get to the Final Four. The 2011 team was really an outlier, as were all the Final Four teams that year. But something like 87% of the Final Four team since the tournament went to 64 teams have been seeded 3 or above.

Unfortunately, I do think this is the new normal in the AAC. It is a 3-4 bid league with the odd man out among UConn, Memphis, Cincinatti, Temple and SMU, with the latter two mostly battling for the final slot.

 

[Husky25]

How deep we go is very much a function of seeding. I recently read a paper that projected how deep a team goes based on its seed. Bottom line is if you're not a 3 or higher, it is very difficult to get to the Final Four. The 2011 team was really an outlier, as were all the Final Four teams that year. But something like 87% of the Final Four team since the tournament went to 64 teams have been seeded 3 or above.

Unfortunately, I do think this is the new normal in the AAC. It is a 3-4 bid league with the odd man out among UConn, Memphis, Cincinatti, Temple and SMU, with the latter two mostly battling for the final slot.

Admittedly, it's a pretty thick limb, but Temple is not making the tournament this year.

 

[CTBasketball]

3-4 teams in from the AAC. Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, UConn, and SMU have a shot. We just need to perform down the stretch. If we get anywhere lower than a 6 seed I think the Elite 8 is possible. Hard, but possible. If we get seeded higher than a 7, there is a good chance we won't make it out of the 1st weekend.

 

[Inyatkin]

There is no such thing as a 3-4 bid league.
They really don't give out bids based on conference. That's like saying the ACC is a 3-bid league, or that it's a 7-bid league, or the old Big East was an 11-bid league. Those all happened, and they all meant nothing the following year. You get in based on what you do, that's it. Conference matters only because of who you get the opportunity to play.
We might have a 4-bid league this year and get 6 next year, or just the conference champion. But there is no such thing as a conference quota.

 

[Tenspro2002]

It's true that the committee doesn't allot a certain number of bids to a conference based on its perceived strength.

However, I think it's also true that the committee does take conference strength into account when determining seeding. I think in years past, we've gotten the benefit of the doubt in terms of seeding because we played in a very strong conference (a #4 seed in 2008 and a #2 seed in 2005 jump out at me as having been particularly generous). St. John's getting a #3 seed in 2011 is another example.

Lunardi's latest bracket has a fairly impressive 5 AAC teams out of 10 in the Tournament. However, nobody -- not even impressive Cincinnati or resurgent Louisville -- is higher than a 5 seed. That's the new reality for us. We're going to have to be solidly a top 10 team to have a chance at a top-4 seed and, consequently, a legitimate shot at a deep run.

Remember one year where George Washington finished the year ranked 6th, but was given only a #5 seed? We should expect treatment closer to that than the treatment we got when we were in the Big East.

 

[GlastonTim]

The Ivy League is a 1-2 bid league....... this year.