So, How Deep Will We Go? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

So, How Deep Will We Go?

How deep a run will we make?

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BigErnMcCracken said:
Totally depends on seeding. If they slide in as an 8 or 9 they won't be around very long unless they draw a particularly vulnerable 1 seed in game two.
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More match up than seeding. Tall quick guards are a problem for us.
 
Latest bracketology has Uconn a 8 with Cuse a 1. I would love to play them. Ennis hasn't played any team with a backcourt as good as Napier/Boatright. Giffey/Napier/Daniels could be shooting over the zone all game. Uconn won easily last year when they had Carter/Williams, they would have a great shot to do it again.
 
jibsey said:
We are not a lock for the tournament at this point. What if the AAC gets 3 bids? Or 2?
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I feel the same way. A couple more upsets on the road in the AAC means the bubble.
 
D$ said:
My bet is UCONN will be a 8/9 in Syracuse's bracket.
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Sweet 16 is the pass/fail line. If we end up in the 8/9 game, I could live with a 3rd round exit, with the obvious exception, ^^^^^.

I would sign up right now for a date with Cuse in MSG, and feel pretty good about our chances.
 
Good points by a lot of people. I forgot that if we enter the tourney as an 8 seed, we get to face the 1 seed in the 2nd round. Let's hope we end up a 4, or at worst, a 5 seed...
 
Its the AAC that's the problem here. The AAC's best team, Cincinnati (at the current time), is 17-2 and ranked 15th. They're projected as a 5 seed. Now that tells you where they think AAC teams are going. Anywhere between 4 and 10 probably. Now Memphis, Louisville, UConn, and Cincy are all capable of a 3 or 4 seed, but since we all play each other twice (possibly 3 times), we're going to beat each other up. And besides these games, there are no other high caliber teams that can balance out these losses. So don't be surprised when the AAC gets only 3 teams in because one of us might get left out.
 
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I think we get a 6-8 seed realistically with a shot at a sweet 16. But hey, its March, anything can happen.
 
I don't know why people keep saying this. They're 18-0 and haven't been threatened all that often. Fine, they play a zone but they play a pretty damn good zone and we have small guards who can get swallowed up. They have bigs that will extend possessions for them. They're pretty damn good offensively and, frankly, UConn has shown a tendency not to defend. I hate Syracuse with the white hot intensity of a thousand burning suns but I'd concede that they would have to play far better than they've played most of the season to have a chance to beat Syracuse.


SubbaBub said:
I would sign up right now for a date with Cuse in MSG, and feel pretty good about our chances.
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Is cuse better this year than last ? I don't think so . Their size is overrated , remember Nolan is equal to Christmas. Both grant and fair are 6'8. With all that said, if Daniels is troubled with fouls all bets are off.
 
James said:
Is cuse better this year than last ? I don't think so . Their size is overrated , remember Nolan is equal to Christmas. Both grant and fair are 6'8. With all that said, if Daniels is troubled with fouls all bets are off.
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We would not beat Syracuse this year. We have proved over and over again we cannot beat even a decent zone. Syracuse's zone would hold us under 50 pts and we'd get out-rebounded by at least 10.

I'd rather play a Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, etc over Syracuse.
 
CTBasketball said:
We would not beat Syracuse this year. We have proved over and over again we cannot beat even a decent zone. Syracuse's zone would hold us under 50 pts and we'd get out-rebounded by at least 10.

I'd rather play a Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, etc over Syracuse.
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we beat cuse last year when they had a better pg/team. what has happened to make them unbeatable ?
 
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BigErnMcCracken said:
I don't think they were better last year.
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I agree. This team plays more like a team and doesn't have James Sutherland launching half court 3's half the time. And Jerami Grant is developing into a really good player.
James said:
we beat cuse last year when they had a better pg/team. what has happened to make them unbeatable
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We shot 60% from 3 vs. them. Whenever you shoot over 50% from 3 and take a good amount of 3's, you have a good chance to beat anybody.
 
I'm not saying they can't beat Syracuse, they definitely could. But I don't get the idea that it's somehow a good match-up for UConn. Maybe compared to Kansas, sure. But by March I think Kansas is going to be close to unbeatable.
 
Cuse was 15th in assists last year , now they are 172nd . How are they playing better as a team?They went to a final four last year... Now we are dismissing our W because of proper execution ?
With all that said, there are other teams we match up better with
 
CTBasketball said:
Its the AAC that's the problem here. The AAC's best team, Cincinnati (at the current time), is 17-2 and ranked 15th. They're projected as a 5 seed. Now that tells you where they think AAC teams are going. Anywhere between 4 and 10 probably. Now Memphis, Louisville, UConn, and Cincy are all capable of a 3 or 4 seed, but since we all play each other twice (possibly 3 times), we're going to beat each other up. And besides these games, there are no other high caliber teams that can balance out these losses. So don't be surprised when the AAC gets only 3 teams in because one of us might get left out.
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Tells you more about their OOC schedule and who they have played so far in conference. I believe they played no-one great (and lost to the decent teams) OOC, they have yet to play UL or UConn in conference. They did beat Memphis. Not sure if they have played SMU yet. UL is probably a 3-4 seed right now with one good win.

Worst case, UConn ends the season 21-10. That would be awful, but two wins in the conference tourney could get them in. I think realistic best case is 26-5 right now, or maybe 25-6.

BTW: Ollie has his 50th game Saturday. Sitting at 35-14 so far. Not to shabby, of course working with a lot of Calhouns guys still.
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
I don't know why people keep saying this. They're 18-0 and haven't been threatened all that often. Fine, they play a zone but they play a pretty damn good zone and we have small guards who can get swallowed up. They have bigs that will extend possessions for them. They're pretty damn good offensively and, frankly, UConn has shown a tendency not to defend. I hate Syracuse with the white hot intensity of a thousand burning suns but I'd concede that they would have to play far better than they've played most of the season to have a chance to beat Syracuse.
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Because we are better than Vermont. That is all you need to have a chance against Syracuse. This isn't even their best team, and I recall beating them fairly recently. It's not like they have an extensive list of quality wins either.
 
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James said:
Cuse was 15th in assists last year , now they are 172nd . How are they playing better as a team?They went to a final four last year... Now we are dismissing our W because of proper execution ?
With all that said, there are other teams we match up better with
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Not sure they are better, I like UConns chances against their zone.
CTBasketball said:
I agree. This team plays more like a team and doesn't have James Sutherland launching half court 3's half the time. And Jerami Grant is developing into a really good player.

We shot 60% from 3 vs. them. Whenever you shoot over 50% from 3 and take a good amount of 3's, you have a good chance to beat anybody.
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Grant is a great athlete and certainly does some nice things. He still can't really dribble worth a damn (Form a NBA perspective) his shot is also meh for a SF.
 
Strummer said:
We've had early success, mid season slump in the heart of Texas, a tough loss to Louisville, and a Donkey Stomping of Temple.

Question is, where do you see us in March?

Be honest - as if all of your money was bet on the result.

I went with Sweet 16, although I'm not sure we're a top 16 team right now - I figure round of 32 based on talent and effort, and Sweet 16 based on Bazz's will alone, if nothing works. Beyond that it's really gravy this season.
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No clue, it depends if KO can do as JC used to and have them all bringing their "A" game on the same night in Feb...Front court has to step up every night not just aginst the teams they are supposed to beat.
 
SubbaBub said:
Because we are better than Vermont. That is all you need to have a chance against Syracuse. This isn't even their best team, and I recall beating them fairly recently. It's not like they have an extensive list of quality wins either.
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Oy vey. Vermont? They're 3-0 against the top 25 and 5-0 against the top 50. Most importantly, they've beaten everyone put in front of them, and for the most part fairly easily. They are markedly better than anyone we've played so far this year, and I'm including Florida. Just saying "we're better than Vermont" is silly.
 
Not sure why any of you would want to play Syracuse and don't know what people are talking about when they say Syracuse was better last year.
 
bmayuc said:
haha @ this comment. You think Daniels is "getting there" exactly 1 game after he completely no-showed at home in our biggest game of the year against Louisville? I love your spirit. I question your sanity.
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Daniels flopped vs L'Ville but the game prior @ Memphis 23/11, 14/7 vs Fla, 48% from 3 on yr, rebounds on the upswing...yeah, I think Daniels is coming along. I expect 15/8 a game the rest of the way...if not we have problems.
 
I hope in proven wrong, but I now think the ceiling for this team is lower than I expected in November. Like Kemba; having Bazz is the great equalizer, but good teams will be able to make life difficult for him. If we were getting consistency out of Deandre then I would feel better, but there is nothing I've seen this year that indicates we won't be getting exactly what we've been getting for the last 2 years out of him; moments of brilliance followed long periods of total absence.

Also, rebounding aside ( obvious flaw is obvious) we are not nearly as good defensively as I had hoped. Even in the temple romp we were giving up some really easy buckets. I thought our ball pressure would really create havoc for other teams, but I've only seen flashes of it.

Much of it is that even now I don't feel like we have a go to rotation yet. So floor chemistry in defensive end is lacking.

In my estimation we are a first weekend team in the tourney. Earlier I thought we were a second weekend team.
 
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First problem would be actually making it to the cuse game,second is would our guys show up or play like they did againest Louisville.


Plus I think it's bad if were the 8/9 seed.
 
Anyone looking forward to or happy with an 8-1 game against Syracuse is insane. Just because we beat them last year at home in a relatively meaningless game does not in any way indicate success this year at a neutral court. And do you really think MSG is going to be neutral with Cuse the 1 seed and UConn an 8 seed? Far easier to get lots of fans to buy tickets when you're the one seed. They have hardly been tested this year and have just taken care of business. Our offense has looked really bad against good zones this year and they play great zone. Finally, with the new rules, a good/great zone team has a lot of advantage in not getting extra fouls called against them. I think the rules will be relaxed, modified to some extent next year, but this year is the ultimate time to be a zone defense team. Just like it's about the worst year to play a pressing in your face defense like Ville and it has cost them. The deck is just about stacked for Syracuse to make a run this year - games at MSG, hand check rules. No way I want that bracket.
 
jleves said:
Anyone looking forward to or happy with an 8-1 game against Syracuse is insane. Just because we beat them last year at home in a relatively meaningless game does not in any way indicate success this year at a neutral court. And do you really think MSG is going to be neutral with Cuse the 1 seed and UConn an 8 seed? Far easier to get lots of fans to buy tickets when you're the one seed. They have hardly been tested this year and have just taken care of business. Our offense has looked really bad against good zones this year and they play great zone. Finally, with the new rules, a good/great zone team has a lot of advantage in not getting extra fouls called against them. I think the rules will be relaxed, modified to some extent next year, but this year is the ultimate time to be a zone defense team. Just like it's about the worst year to play a pressing in your face defense like Ville and it has cost them. The deck is just about stacked for Syracuse to make a run this year - games at MSG, hand check rules. No way I want that bracket.
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Even worse is a potential 1-8 game against Syracuse in Buffalo, which is hosting the first weekend games. I think MSG has a regional final.
 
Interesting topic to discuss, but also tough to have at this point. A couple of things to think about. When comparing Uconn to other teams in the AAC regarding seeding, remember that UConn has the best OOC resume in the conference with wins over Florida, Harvard, Washington, etc. Is it the best OOC profile we've ever had? No, but its better than Ville, Memphis, Cincy and SMU. UConn has work it do in conference play, but their OOC resume is a plus, where those other teams (Memphis is probably the exception) don't have that lean on.

UConn really needs to take care of business with the remaining games against bad teams in the AAC. By my count that is 7 games...Rutgers X2, South Florida X2, @Central Florida, @Temple and Houston. I see no reason why they shouldnt go 7-0 if they come to play. As others have correctly pointed out, this team is wildly inconsistent so going 7-0 is certainly no guarantee. Look at the first Houston game. But 7 wins there would get us to 22 wins.

We then have 5 games against teams either going to the tournament, or borderline. Cincy X2, Memphis, SMU, and @Ville. I'd like to think we can hold serve at home and go at least 3-2. If that happens, we are now up to 25 wins. Win a game or two in the conference tourney, and I could see this team being a 4 or 5 seed. Not a huge difference between the two.

I think the ceiling for this team is probably the 2nd weekend. But as we saw in 2011, if you can get there, then who knows what happens. I think the difference between teams 1-10 and the rest of the field this year is so small, that you will see a ton of upsets early in the tournament.

My X-factor in all of this is DeAndre. If he plays well, I think we will be in every game we play, even against top teams. And then we have a clutch player in Shabazz down the stretch.
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
Even worse is a potential 1-8 game against Syracuse in Buffalo, which is hosting the first weekend games. I think MSG has a regional final.
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Yeah - that would be even worse. I didn't look it up - just responding to others who mentioned MSG. That's about the worst case scenario possible and most likely that the tourney committee sets it up.
 
Chances of playing Syracuse in the 2nd round like Lunardi predicts.....5%

Chances of playing in the 2nd round.....75%
 
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