UConn's perimeter offense will keep SC from being able to pack it in on defense. Both Wilson and Coates are liabilities when they are 10' from the basket, as they tend to play defense with their hands; back-door cuts will lead to fouls, which will put them on their heels and cut down their effectiveness offensively. With respect to the SC offense, it's predicated on getting the ball inside for easy baskets, or back out to Mitchell & Sessions for jumpers. With Nurse and Bon-bon harassing their guards, the passes inside won't be as crisp, so Wilson and Coates will have to work from a lesser advantage than they are used to. If they need to dump back, the pass back out won't be an easy one, and will likely lead to turnovers.
USC had only four contributors on offense (a fifth scored 1 point); they need to find a way to spread things around. They hit only 2-11 from beyond the arc, which is the only weak spot we have shown on defense. And for all of that vaunted size, Carolina out-rebounded A&M by a whole 4; only 1 more offensive than A&M had. That won't get the job done.
My biggest concern for UConn is that Butler doesn't appear ready for this game. I was hoping we'd have a big to bang with them, but she doesn't seem to have her sea-legs, yet. More time, more experience; maybe she will be ready come tournament time.
If we don't lose coverage in the weave on defense (which is why we leave players open for 3s), and we move without the ball on offense, it should be a double-digit win for UConn. If the officials let South Carolina bang us around in the post and we have an off night shooting, it could be close.
If USC has an 8-point quarter like they did tonight, it won't be close at all.
