SMU a 6?

[NielsisGood]

SMU legitimately should have been a four seed this year but personally, I would rather be a six seed than a five or a four.

Most years sure. This year there's hardly any difference between the 1 and 2 seeds. Zona will surely be a betting favorite against Gonzaga, Duke will likely be favored over Nova, and UNC won't lay more than like 1.5 to Kentucky. Louisville is the only 2 seed that didn't really have a legit case to be a #1.

 

[auror]

Most years sure. This year there's hardly any difference between the 1 and 2 seeds. Zona will surely be a betting favorite against Gonzaga, Duke will likely be favored over Nova, and UNC won't lay more than like 1.5 to Kentucky. Louisville is the only 2 seed that didn't really have a legit case to be a #1.

Gonzaga would be favored by 4 or 5 points in that matchup. The public would pounce on Arizona and the bookies would be happy to assume the risk.

 

[NielsisGood]

Gonzaga would be favored by 4 or 5 points in that matchup. The public would pounce on Arizona and the bookies would be happy to assume the risk.

Absolutely not.

 

[auror]

Absolutely not.

Point spreads track to KenPom pretty closely. Gonzaga was a 6 point favorite over St. Mary's, who is ranked better in KP than Arizona (but Arizona might get pretty close to St. Mary's rank if they reached E8 + Trier's influence not wholly accounted in rating would drive spread down ). Like I said from your reaction, public would take Arizona and Vegas would be fine with it.

You're underestimating Gonzaga's dominance this year. They've been blowing everyone out and are 22-7-1 against the spread this year (10-1-1 away from home), so they won't adjust the line too far down. Gonzaga also did beat Arizona on neutral court by 7 and were ahead for 3/4 of the game by double digits, of course without Trier for Arizona.