Seth Greenberg on UConn & the Big East

[CL82]

Please see my post about from about a half hour ago on the reasons why the P5 fully breaking off won't happen.

I read it Guapo and it is a good post. That said, when the current P5 contracts end, it is very likely that the replacement contracts will not even approach the current dollar amounts. Conferences that have grown used to that income are going to look for a replacement. March madness is a huge pile of cash. I doubt that they will leave it on the table. The model for replacing it already out there. The NCAA used it to replace the NIT.

 

[Guapo]

I read it Guapo and it is a good post. That said, when the current P5 contracts end, it is very likely that the replacement contracts will not even approach the current dollar amounts. Conferences that have grown used to that income are going to look for a replacement. March madness is a huge pile of cash. I doubt that they will leave it on the table. The model for replacing it already out there. The NCAA used it to replace the NIT.

I agree that the P5 will continue to gain greater and greater control over the NCAA and thus will continue to receive preferential treatment, like the UNC case.

However, I have yet to be given a reason why it would be worth it to them to "do sports" outside the NCAA structure. It seems to be working just fine for them.

 

[CL82]

I agree that the P5 will continue to gain greater and greater control over the NCAA and thus will continue to receive preferential treatment, like the UNC case.

However, I have yet to be given a reason why it would be worth it to them to "do sports" outside the NCAA structure. It seems to be working just fine for them.

Right now the NCAA is being funded by the profits of March Madness. Think about that. The NCAA is a multi-million dollar enterprise that is funded off of a few weeks each spring.

Nothing would stop the the P5 from deciding to have their own tournament and choosing not to participate in March Madness. Right now they are flush with cash, so it's not an issue. Once the current TV contracts dry up it is a whole new ballgame.

That's just my opinion, but I'm pretty confident that's how it will work out.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

You're misreading my post, we're arguing the same thing.

I know....

I guess I didn't put enough sarcasm sauce in that bowl. Mea Culpa

 

[Guapo]

Right now the NCAA is being funded by the profits of March Madness. Think about that. The NCAA is a multi-million dollar enterprise that is funded off of a few weeks each spring.

Nothing would stop the the P5 from deciding to have their own tournament and choosing not to participate in March Madness. Right now they are flush with cash, so it's not an issue. Once the current TV contracts dry up it is a whole new ballgame.

That's just my opinion, but I'm pretty confident that's how it will work out.

"But basketball doesn't matter!"

Man, imagine if, after years of UConn being left out of P5 conference realignment because "basketball doesn't matter," UConn athletics is killed because...basketball.

Knowing how this stuff goes for UConn, this is probably exactly what will happen. Gee whiz.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

You don't even know what you're responding to. Also, Butler was in 2 straight National Title games, Xavier has basically made the sweet 16 or elite 8 every other year. Your examples absolutely suck.

Yes I do.....

Butler made two in how many years of existence....and I think that program may have lost a major piece since we beat them in the Finals....but sure, I am wrong. They are perennial favorites to win it all. Duke, Kansas, Butler. If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say that, I would owe you a dollar. Any you are right. We will all long remember where we were the night Xavier last cut down the nets.

 

[frankthetank]

Three points:

(1) The Big East is a better and more valuable basketball conference than the AAC (whether you're talking about on-the-court results, branding or TV money). When you consider how much the Big East is getting paid in TV money and that it's higher than the AAC *without* football and all of the expenses that such sport entails, it's actually not even close from a revenue/expense standpoint. The ROI that the Big East is getting on just basketball alone crushes all of the G5 conferences (inclusive of both football and basketball) and is in line with (and possibly better than) the P5 with respect to basketball.

(2) Joining the Big East at this time is not in the best interests of UConn as long as there is even a sliver of a chance of getting into the P5. Any and all P5 membership opportunities (to the extent that they will ever exist again) will be based on football value - period.

(3) UConn can still win basketball games in the AAC. While football is a P5-or-bust exercise, there aren't the same structural impediments in basketball. Now, that doesn't mean that the biggest power conferences don't have advantages in basketball, too, but it isn't a bright line dichotomy. The AAC is certainly considered to be at least a major conference in the basketball realm that will consistently garner at-large NCAA Tournament bids, so the league in and of itself isn't the cause of UConn's on-the-court issues for men's basketball.

Those three points are not mutually exclusive. The Big East is a better basketball league than the AAC (and it will likely always be a better league because it has a true brand identity compared to the AAC's attempt at a "best of the rest" hodge podge membership approach), but UConn can't really consider that as an option as long as there is ANY hope of a P5 invite down the road and the school can't really blame its lack of on-the-court success on the AAC itself.

The gazillion dollar question is whether UConn truly in its heart of hearts believes that it will be in a P5 conference within the next decade. If so, then there's no choice but to stay put in the best football conference option possible (which is the AAC). If not, then the Big East is simply a better basketball conference both on-the-court and off-the-court - it makes more money, it has better brand recognition, and its teams consistently perform better. However, UConn effectively has to give up football and, in turn, all hope of a P5 invite in order for that to occur.

None of that is an easy decision. It's like basically betting everything that you have in roulette where you're in a mansion if your number comes up, you'll be homeless if you lose, and there's no real comfortable option in between.

 

[QDOG5]

Eight pages on a thread with Seth Greenberg in the title. I'm ten toes in.

 

[Guapo]

Three points:

(1) The Big East is a better and more valuable basketball conference than the AAC (whether you're talking about on-the-court results, branding or TV money). When you consider how much the Big East is getting paid in TV money and that it's higher than the AAC *without* football and all of the expenses that such sport entails, it's actually not even close from a revenue/expense standpoint. The ROI that the Big East is getting on just basketball alone crushes all of the G5 conferences (inclusive of both football and basketball) and is in line with (and possibly better than) the P5 with respect to basketball.

(2) Joining the Big East at this time is not in the best interests of UConn as long as there is even a sliver of a chance of getting into the P5. Any and all P5 membership opportunities (to the extent that they will ever exist again) will be based on football value - period.

(3) UConn can still win basketball games in the AAC. While football is a P5-or-bust exercise, there aren't the same structural impediments in basketball. Now, that doesn't mean that the biggest power conferences don't have advantages in basketball, too, but it isn't a bright line dichotomy. The AAC is certainly considered to be at least a major conference in the basketball realm that will consistently garner at-large NCAA Tournament bids, so the league in and of itself isn't the cause of UConn's on-the-court issues for men's basketball.

Those three points are not mutually exclusive. The Big East is a better basketball league than the AAC (and it will likely always be a better league because it has a true brand identity compared to the AAC's attempt at a "best of the rest" hodge podge membership approach), but UConn can't really consider that as an option as long as there is ANY hope of a P5 invite down the road and the school can't really blame its lack of on-the-court success on the AAC itself.

The gazillion dollar question is whether UConn truly in its heart of hearts believes that it will be in a P5 conference within the next decade. If so, then there's no choice but to stay put in the best football conference option possible (which is the AAC). If not, then the Big East is simply a better basketball conference both on-the-court and off-the-court - it makes more money, it has better brand recognition, and its teams consistently perform better. However, UConn effectively has to give up football and, in turn, all hope of a P5 invite in order for that to occur.

None of that is an easy decision. It's like basically betting everything that you have in roulette where you're in a mansion if your number comes up, you'll be homeless if you lose, and there's no real comfortable option in between.

You guys,

We've been visited by a celebrity.

What are your thoughts on the P5 breaking away?

 

[CL82]

Three points:

(1) The Big East is a better and more valuable basketball conference than the AAC (whether you're talking about on-the-court results, branding or TV money). When you consider how much the Big East is getting paid in TV money and that it's higher than the AAC *without* football and all of the expenses that such sport entails, it's actually not even close from a revenue/expense standpoint. The ROI that the Big East is getting on just basketball alone crushes all of the G5 conferences (inclusive of both football and basketball) and is in line with (and possibly better than) the P5 with respect to basketball.

(2) Joining the Big East at this time is not in the best interests of UConn as long as there is even a sliver of a chance of getting into the P5. Any and all P5 membership opportunities (to the extent that they will ever exist again) will be based on football value - period.

(3) UConn can still win basketball games in the AAC. While football is a P5-or-bust exercise, there aren't the same structural impediments in basketball. Now, that doesn't mean that the biggest power conferences don't have advantages in basketball, too, but it isn't a bright line dichotomy. The AAC is certainly considered to be at least a major conference in the basketball realm that will consistently garner at-large NCAA Tournament bids, so the league in and of itself isn't the cause of UConn's on-the-court issues for men's basketball.

Those three points are not mutually exclusive. The Big East is a better basketball league than the AAC (and it will likely always be a better league because it has a true brand identity compared to the AAC's attempt at a "best of the rest" hodge podge membership approach), but UConn can't really consider that as an option as long as there is ANY hope of a P5 invite down the road and the school can't really blame its lack of on-the-court success on the AAC itself.

The gazillion dollar question is whether UConn truly in its heart of hearts believes that it will be in a P5 conference within the next decade. If so, then there's no choice but to stay put in the best football conference option possible (which is the AAC). If not, then the Big East is simply a better basketball conference both on-the-court and off-the-court - it makes more money, it has better brand recognition, and its teams consistently perform better. However, UConn effectively has to give up football and, in turn, all hope of a P5 invite in order for that to occur.

None of that is an easy decision. It's like basically betting everything that you have in roulette where you're in a mansion if your number comes up, you'll be homeless if you lose, and there's no real comfortable option in between.

Largely agree Frank. My only comment is that while the New Big East makes more money, it is still a drop in the bucket compared to P5 numbers. Yes, the AAC makes less (but has much, much better TV exposure) but the dollar difference, not as a ratio, but in actual dollars, isn't meaningful. Our Nike and IMG deals eclipse both figures.

The real upside is of the NBE is more driveable games, probably a boost in attendance, and somewhat better access to the tournament. Those are all real benefits. That doesn't change your conclusion that the NBE is only a viable alternative once we've given up on the P5. I think we've got five years before that decision is made, and it is largely out of our hands.

 

[nadav]

You get every channel though

 

[frankthetank]

You guys,

We've been visited by a celebrity.

What are your thoughts on the P5 breaking away?

I wouldn't count on a P5 breakaway. As long as the P5 control 90%-plus of the college football revenue, they'll likely live with the NCAA for everything else (particularly since the P5 was able legislate different standards for "high resource" schools). It certainly irks some P5 administrators that they feel they should be getting the lion's share of basketball revenue, too, but they also know that there is a general public attachment to the NCAA Tournament as a place for perceived inclusiveness that doesn't exist for the College Football Playoff (where the general public seems to be perfectly fine with an all-P5 affair on that front). The P5 conferences have so much control over football revenue that the incentives for upsetting the overall system at this point are very low. That stability generally works well for the P5 right now. (Of course, if you're outside of the P5 like UConn, you want instability and movement as much as possible.)

Now, a black swan event that could change things is if players can (or more to the point, legally *must*) be paid compensation beyond their scholarships and cost of attendance. That's the one sorta foreseeable event that could cause a cataclysmic shift to the entire NCAA framework, but even then, I'd predict that the P5 schools will su ck it up and pay (regardless of any posturing from people like Jim Delany that leagues would rather go down to Division III funding).

 

[frankthetank]

Largely agree Frank. My only comment is that while the New Big East makes more money, it is still a drop in the bucket compared to P5 numbers. Yes, the AAC makes less (but has much, much better TV exposure) but the dollar difference, not as a ratio, but in actual dollars, isn't meaningful. Our Nike and IMG deals eclipse both figures.

The real upside is of the NBE is more driveable games, probably a boost in attendance, and somewhat better access to the tournament. Those are all real benefits. That doesn't change your conclusion that the NBE is only a viable alternative once we've given up on the P5. I think we've got five years before that decision is made, and it is largely out of our hands.

I agree that the NBE TV money is only a fraction of the revenue compared to the P5 and individual school media and shoe deals can be much more by comparison. That being said, the NBE schools also aren't carrying the costs of FBS football and the arms race that the sport entails. It's not so much the actual dollars but rather the profit/loss that the NBE athletic departments are realizing compared to schools that are incurring the costs of FBS football yet aren't receiving P5 revenue.

 

[BearcatFan123]

Three points:

(1) The Big East is a better and more valuable basketball conference than the AAC (whether you're talking about on-the-court results, branding or TV money). When you consider how much the Big East is getting paid in TV money and that it's higher than the AAC *without* football and all of the expenses that such sport entails, it's actually not even close from a revenue/expense standpoint. The ROI that the Big East is getting on just basketball alone crushes all of the G5 conferences (inclusive of both football and basketball) and is in line with (and possibly better than) the P5 with respect to basketball.

(2) Joining the Big East at this time is not in the best interests of UConn as long as there is even a sliver of a chance of getting into the P5. Any and all P5 membership opportunities (to the extent that they will ever exist again) will be based on football value - period.

(3) UConn can still win basketball games in the AAC. While football is a P5-or-bust exercise, there aren't the same structural impediments in basketball. Now, that doesn't mean that the biggest power conferences don't have advantages in basketball, too, but it isn't a bright line dichotomy. The AAC is certainly considered to be at least a major conference in the basketball realm that will consistently garner at-large NCAA Tournament bids, so the league in and of itself isn't the cause of UConn's on-the-court issues for men's basketball.

Those three points are not mutually exclusive. The Big East is a better basketball league than the AAC (and it will likely always be a better league because it has a true brand identity compared to the AAC's attempt at a "best of the rest" hodge podge membership approach), but UConn can't really consider that as an option as long as there is ANY hope of a P5 invite down the road and the school can't really blame its lack of on-the-court success on the AAC itself.

The gazillion dollar question is whether UConn truly in its heart of hearts believes that it will be in a P5 conference within the next decade. If so, then there's no choice but to stay put in the best football conference option possible (which is the AAC). If not, then the Big East is simply a better basketball conference both on-the-court and off-the-court - it makes more money, it has better brand recognition, and its teams consistently perform better. However, UConn effectively has to give up football and, in turn, all hope of a P5 invite in order for that to occur.

None of that is an easy decision. It's like basically betting everything that you have in roulette where you're in a mansion if your number comes up, you'll be homeless if you lose, and there's no real comfortable option in between.

The best option is for UConn to wait out the next round of realignment. If they don't make it then join the Big East.

 

[TRest]

The best option is for UConn to wait out the next round of realignment. If they don't make it then join the Big East.

UConn is investing in upgrades to non-revenue athletic facilities in order to be as well-positioned as possible for an invite/breakaway. The newest BE will always be there as a fall back, although it might not be as attractive a decade from now.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Yes I do.....

Butler made two in how many years of existence....and I think that program may have lost a major piece since we beat them in the Finals....but sure, I am wrong. They are perennial favorites to win it all. Duke, Kansas, Butler. If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say that, I would owe you a dollar. Any you are right. We will all long remember where we were the night Xavier last cut down the nets.

Is it really that hard to admit you were wrong? He gave specific and correct examples to refute what you said. So your response is "DURR YEAH I GUESS THEY'RE FAVORITES TO WIN IT EVERY YEAR?" Every time I come on here, I'm instantly reminded why I don't come here more often.

 

[CL82]

I agree that the NBE TV money is only a fraction of the revenue compared to the P5 and individual school media and shoe deals can be much more by comparison. That being said, the NBE schools also aren't carrying the costs of FBS football and the arms race that the sport entails. It's not so much the actual dollars but rather the profit/loss that the NBE athletic departments are realizing compared to schools that are incurring the costs of FBS football yet aren't receiving P5 revenue.

Great point about net revenue Frank since FBS football is very expensive. I took a quick look and couldn't find a list of athletic department revenues, with the schools broken out by conference. Have you seen one?

So given that TV revenue for the AAC and NBE is a relative pittance, the question is do the much more lucrative Nike and IMG contracts take a hit without football? Logic would indicate that they would since w/o FBS football UConn loses a lot of content.

Below is the best I found but I didn't spend a lot of time looking:

The AAC and Big East form a sort of middle class, taking home some $72 million and $50 million, respectively, this year. The American netted a respectable $30 million from bowls, ranking just behind the Pac-12, and another $22 million from NCAA Tournament play, good for the second-highest among all conferences. It falls far behind, however, because of a TV deal with ESPN that pays just $20 million or so per year, a pittance compared to the $130 million-per-year deal it turned down in 2011.

Even the Big East, which doesn't play football, gets more from its TV inventory thanks to a 12-year, $500 million deal with Fox. Of course, the conference was lucky that its exodus from the "old Big East" happened to coincide with Fox creating a sports-specific network that had a dire need for live sports programming.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Is it really that hard to admit you were wrong? He gave specific and correct examples to refute what you said. So your response is "DURR YEAH I GUESS THEY'RE FAVORITES TO WIN IT EVERY YEAR?" Every time I come on here, I'm instantly reminded why I don't come here more often.

So you consider those programs to be powerhouses? You would trade places with Xavier and/Butler? Lol
If that works for you. We define big-time differently. The world will spin either way.

 

[BearcatFan123]

UConn is investing in upgrades to non-revenue athletic facilities in order to be as well-positioned as possible for an invite/breakaway. The newest BE will always be there as a fall back, although it might not be as attractive a decade from now.

That is basically what I meant.

 

[billybud]

2017 NCAA tournament

Credits Earned:

ACC....................18
SEC....................16
Big 12.................15
Big 10.................15
PAC 12...............14
Big East.............13
AAC.....................3

How Much Money Each NCAA Tournament Team Earned for their Conference

 

[Guapo]

Great point about net revenue Frank since FBS football is very expensive. I took a quick look and couldn't find a list of athletic department revenues, with the schools broken out by conference. Have you seen one?

So given that TV revenue for the AAC and NBE is a relative pittance, the question is do the much more lucrative Nike and IMG contracts take a hit without football? Logic would indicate that they would since w/o FBS football UConn loses a lot of content.

Below is the best I found but I didn't spend a lot of time looking:

Is this something like what you're looking for?

USA TODAY Sports

 

[TRest]

2017 NCAA tournament

Credits Earned:

ACC.....18
SEC.....16
Big 12.......15
Big 10.......15
PAC 12.....14
Big East...13
AAC......3

How Much Money Each NCAA Tournament Team Earned for their Conference

Nobody mentioned FSU, go back to sleep.

 

[billybud]

Been asleep all season...yawn.

 

[CL82]

Rank Team Conference Revenue Expense Allocated
46 Connecticut AAC $79,229,275 $79,211,704 $35,270,821
53 Central Florida AAC $59,379,453 $59,379,453 $26,838,366
54 Cincinnati AAC $59,062,156 $57,977,434 $24,892,123
57 Houston AAC $51,469,297 $52,204,566 $25,155,485 48.87
58 Memphis AAC $50,027,341 $50,115,251 $18,364,385
60 South Florida AAC $47,160,819 $48,405,191 $23,403,049
65 East Carolina AAC $44,613,084 $45,814,967 $18,897,030

No NBE since they are not public universities.

Thanks @Guapo my search showed the methodology but not the figures.

@frankthetank

 

[John]

Rank Team Conference Revenue Expense Allocated
46 Connecticut AAC $79,229,275 $79,211,704 $35,270,821
53 Central Florida AAC $59,379,453 $59,379,453 $26,838,366
54 Cincinnati AAC $59,062,156 $57,977,434 $24,892,123
57 Houston AAC $51,469,297 $52,204,566 $25,155,485 48.87
58 Memphis AAC $50,027,341 $50,115,251 $18,364,385
60 South Florida AAC $47,160,819 $48,405,191 $23,403,049
65 East Carolina AAC $44,613,084 $45,814,967 $18,897,030

No NBE since they are not public universities.

Thanks @Guapo my search showed the methodology but not the figures.

@frankthetank

the rank is of all national colleges? If so, wow, not bad.