Did you personally think playing Parker 11 minutes and pulling his best players early in the 4th was justified assuming the goal was to win an elimination game? Not challenging, just curious.
@psconn , I apologize for my delayed response, as I am just catching up on my Boneyard notifications (I know, I should get my priorities in order and check the BY multiple times per day).
Here are my thoughts (for which I am using headings to break up discussion topics to make it easier to read).
Game #3: Minutes and Plus/Minus Numbers for Candace Parker
Candace Parker played 11 minutes in the Game 3 loss to Connecticut. She did not play at all in the second quarter. While she played in the third quarter, she only took one shot. She went to the bench with 5:54 left in the third quarter and did not return to the game.
If you look at the overall +/- numbers, one might speculate that it was a massive error to not play Parker more, given her +/- number of -4 in a game in which the Sparks lost by 22.
Game #3: Minute Distribution for Candace Parker
But when Parker left (for good) in the third quarter (5:54 to play in that stanza, the Sun led the Sparks by 15 points (51-36). With 3:19 to go, the lead was cut to 11 points (55-44), as Chiney Ogwumike – the player substitution for Parker – made two free throws to cut the deficit to that margin. About two minutes later (with 1:12 to go in the third), however, the margin ballooned to 19, with CT reeled off eight straight points, pushing the lead to 63-44.
It is common for starters to sit out the end of Q1/beginning of Q2 and the end of Q3/beginning of Q4, for rest. Typically, the majority of starters will go back into the game after about 2-2.5 minutes in Q4.
But at that point, Parker had only played 11 minutes, so she (presumably) did not need rest. And, frankly, given that that it was an elimination game, the eye test/casual WNBA fan would say that Parker – a former multiple-MVP winner and multiple All-Star performer – should have returned in the third quarter, after the lead went from 11 to 19, given that she is (arguably) the Sparks best all-around player (though some may question this, with Nneka’s recent MVP and Chelsea Gray’s emergence as the top young PG/playmaker in the W).
Simply put,
as Brian Agler stated (regarding Parker’s benching), “Star players have to play.”
LAS-CON Series Advanced Statistics for Candace Parker
That being said, the advanced stats tell an interesting story in the entire series.
NETRTG (OFFRTG – DEFRTG) – which measures the team's point differential per 100 possessions while she is on court – shows the following for Candace Parker:
- Game #1: – 25.8 (31 minutes)
- Game #2: – 41.2 (26 minutes)
- Game #3: – 23.5 (11 minutes)
TORATIO ((TO * 100) / (POSS)) – which measures the number of turnovers a player averages per 100 possessions – shows the following for Candace Parker:
- Game #1: 10.0 (31 minutes)
- Game #2: 25.0 (26 minutes)
- Game #3: 18.2 (11 minutes)
Playing Devil’s (Fisher’s) Advocate, the advanced stats paint a picture of Candace Parker being far less effective as the series progressed – and incredibly ineffective in the limited minutes in Game #3. If the team is down 2-0, facing elimination, and has the choice between an increasingly ineffective team leader or trying to see if there is anyone else who could provide a “spark” (pun intended), then one can understand Fisher’s thought process in this respect.
Per The Athletic’s Brady Klopfer, Derek Fisher stated:
“It wasn’t an injury or any specific ‘This is why I’m not going to play Candace,’ but just trying to find energy, find a spark, find physicality and things that we just were continuing to search for throughout the course of the game.
“I know it’s Candace Parker and we’re going to try and make it about her 11 minutes, but it was just about trying to do something different that I thought would try and help us win.”
CamrnCrz1974’s Analysis and Parting Thoughts
Fisher had a very successful first year (22-12, #3 seed) as the Sparks’ HC, in spite of injuries to Parker and Alana Beard and Riquna Williams’ suspension.
That being said, Candace Parker’s minutes in Game #3 certainly comes across an odd coaching strategy for Derek Fisher in an elimination game – not just in Q3 and beyond, but for the entire game. While it can be seen as understandable, in terms of advanced statistics, wanting to find a spark, etc., it still does play well (especially with Parker’s pointed statements about her not being told the reason why and apparent complete lack of communication between Fisher and Parker as to Game #3 strategy).
The curious decision regarding Parker’s minutes/playing time in Game #3 is likely going to be what people remember going into the offseason and next year.
And Parker is only signed through 2020 (she will make $119,500 on the last year of her contract). Will this incident be the catalyst for an irreparable rift between Parker and Fisher, such that she demands a trade? Will she sit out to force a trade (ala Sylvia Fowles, circa 2015)? Or will the two have a sit-down session (or will GM Penny Toler facilitate a meeting) to discuss what transpired in Game #3, hash out their differences, and get on the same page for 2020 (when LA will have to replace Alana Beard and possibly Tierra Ruffin Pratt – who is a free agent – as well as sorting out the crowded PF/C frontcourt situation (Parker, Nneka, Chiney, Vadeeva, Kalani).
Stay tuned.
@ucbart ,
@EricLA
