Scouting Villanova

[Hey Adrien!]

I'd like to thank the possible ice storm for keeping me home on this commute and allowing me time to work on this prior to my first classes.

Villanova: 16-6, 9-3 in Big East play, 8th in KenPom rating

Schedule Analysis:

• 7th toughest schedule in nation
• 16th toughest OOC schedule in nation, with only one high major team playing a tougher OOC schedule (Alabama).
• Best OOC win: 71-53 over Tennessee
• OOC losses to Baylor (36-57), Purdue (74-80) and UCLA (77-86 in OT).
• Lost two of last five, both to Marquette.
  • First game: 54-57 at Nova. Marquette hit 45% of their threes while Gillespie went 4-13 from the field. As a team, Nova hit 25% of their threes.
  • Second game: 73-83 at Marquette. Marquette hit 42% of their threes and 64% of their twos. Moore went 2-11 from the field and Nova hit just 29% of their threes.

Roster Report:

• Jay Wright is expanding his rotations a little bit, but the core is still his top-six players.
  • Bryan Antoine has had his role expand the most. He’s played 15+ minutes in five of his last eight games, however, he’s been out the last two games with an ankle injury
  • Jordan Longino has played four 10+ minute games in the last nine games, all of which were dominant wins.
• None of Nova’s players are “small”, with Gillespie (6’3 195) their smallest player. All other players in their top-six are 6’4+ and 210+
• Their big lineup includes Gillespie, Moore, Slater, Samuels and Dixon, which has been the lineup Wright has used 2nd most over the last five games, for 12.9% of possessions
• Their most common lineup is their “small” lineup with Gillespie/Daniels/Moore in their backcourt and Samuels/Slater as their frontcourt (21.5% of possessions over their last five games). With our size, not sure how much we’ll see their lineup, though.

Offense: 6th in KenPom efficiency

• Gillespie (17.1 ppg) and Moore (15.1 ppg) are their top scorers. The other four in their top-six average between 8.6-10 ppg
• Their offense looks like a typical Jay Wright offense
  • Incredibly slow (8th slowest offensive pace in the nation)
  • Shoot a ton of threes: 46% of their shots are from three (25th in nation)
  • #1 in the country ini FT% (82.5%)
  • They don’t make mistakes (13th lowest turnover rate)
• Not good 2p%: 49.6% is 171st in nation.
• They don’t get to the line that often (217th highest FTA/FGA rate)

Defense: 21st in KenPom efficiency

• According to KenPom, this is Wright’s most efficient defense since the 17-18 season. To put that in perspective, last year’s team was ranked 66th in efficiency.
• Villanova forces teams to shoot jump shots (opponents attempt 42.8% of their shots from three, which is the 50th most in the nation)
• 67th in opponent 3p% (31%)
• 89th in opponent 2p% (47.5%)
• 66th in preventing teams from getting to the line (25.1% FTA/FGA ratio)
• When they foul, they tend to foul good free-throw shooters (75.5 opponent ft%)
• They are not reliant on causing TOs as part of their defense (120th in turnover%)
  • Three Wildcats average 1.0+ steals/game (Moore, Slater, Gillespie)
  • Samuels is their only player who averages 0.5 blocks/game (he averages 0.8).
• A solid, but not elite defensive rebounding team (106tn in nation).

Summary:

In their last four losses, Villanova averaged 24% (26-108) from three, so attacking the perimeter without sleeping on backdoor cuts is the key. If I’m the coach: Sanogo plays 100% of the time Dixon is on the floor but then when he’s off, play Whaley at the 5. On the defensive end, Whaley could be a huge factor combining his length, athleticism and hedging IQ to make up his perimeter D and rim protection.

Huskies!!!

 

[Jumpman62114]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

This would never happen, but thinking about what you said about Gillespie's post-up skills, I'd be really curious how a Jackson-Martin-Polley-Whaley-Sanogo lineup would look when they go with their Gillespie/Moore/Slater/Samuels/Dixon lineup.

Tons of length to defend on the perimeter and either of Jackson/Martin could handle the physicality of both Moore and Gillespie. If you replace one of Slater/Samuels with Daniels, then replace Polley with Cole and have Cole defend Daniels.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

That and the movement off the ball. We seem to always lose our guy against them and they get an easy layup off a backcut

 

[awfuldan]

Our advantage is this game is at the five with Sanogo. We've been struggling to get the ball into him at key junctures in the game though, which is concerning. If we win it's going to be because Sanogo has a monster game. Probably gonna have to dominate the glass too.

Guys should be locked in for this game. Both teams looking to bounce back, and it's a big stage. Husky win here would be massive, but not gonna get my hopes up. If we had beaten Creighton, this game would almost feel like a free-roll.

 

[UConNick]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

Also very worried about that. Do Moore or Daniels have any kind of post game or are they mostly shooters? If so, I wonder if we gamble with Cole on one of them a lot of the time and Martin/AJax on Gillespie.

 

[NJHusky]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

Agree .

 

[8893]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

This would never happen, but thinking about what you said about Gillespie's post-up skills, I'd be really curious how a Jackson-Martin-Polley-Whaley-Sanogo lineup would look when they go with their Gillespie/Moore/Slater/Samuels/Dixon lineup.

Tons of length to defend on the perimeter and either of Jackson/Martin could handle the physicality of both Moore and Gillespie. If you replace one of Slater/Samuels with Daniels, then replace Polley with Cole and have Cole defend Daniels.

Also very worried about that. Do Moore or Daniels have any kind of post game or are they mostly shooters? If so, I wonder if we gamble with Cole on one of them a lot of the time and Martin/AJax on Gillespie.

Agree .

I think we have to have AJax guarding Gillespie most of the game.

 

[Psolo12]

I think we have to have AJax guarding Gillespie most of the game.

I agree, but then who does Cole guard?

 

[8893]

I agree, but then who does Cole guard?

Moore or Daniels I suppose.

 

[mauconnfan]

Moore or Daniels I suppose.

Both are even stronger to the hole than Gillespie. Crazy tough situation because or offensive output will die without Cole in the lineup. Maybe play some zone and change things up?

 

[elmcityboy]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which means alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

to be honest, i am worried about all of our guys getting posted up. our post defense has been suspect all year, and everyone on nova's team is capable of backing in, flapping their off arm, pump-faking, and drawing our guys up in the air.

 

[8893]

Both are even stronger to the hole than Gillespie.

I haven't watched them enough this year, but if that's the case we're screwed. I just still have nightmares of Gillespie abusing Cole last year, and I don't see Martin being able to contain him, either. In fact all our guys except Whaley are a bit soft imo. RJ is not either, but he's undersized.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Moore or Daniels I suppose.

Moore is an even worse matchup for Cole. I'd prefer Daniels since he's more of a jump shooter.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Good coaches ISO us on offense because they know our team defense and rim protection is elite.

Cole's best weapon here is to try to draw a few charges on Gillespie.

 

[CL82]

If there ever was a game for which we should use the hard hedge very judiciously, this is it. Nova is made to take advantage of it.

 

[Huskyhoops25]

Both are even stronger to the hole than Gillespie. Crazy tough situation because or offensive output will die without Cole in the lineup. Maybe play some zone and change things up?

Agree. Maybe play some junk zone, a diamond or box and one with Andre on Gillespie.

 

[Conndog]

Just watch the ball fakes and jumping in the air too soon for a block- Villanova is very smart with this, and UConn has been prone to fouling in these situations. Of all the players, Cole has to stay in the game and not foul out of it.

 

[husky429]

If Cole doesn't get in foul trouble and Sanogo has a monster game, we stand a chance. Terrible matchup for us otherwise. Shoukd be a fun one

 

[awfuldan]

 

[8893]

 

[ucp990411]

Good writeup. I can tell you right now, Gillespie posting up RJ is going to be a problem because we need RJ to play alot, which mean alot of opportunities to exploit that matchup for Nova.

How about we leave Samuels alone on the outside and have who is guarding him (Whaley or Sanogo) double in the low block.

 

[UconnU]

Nova is a nightmare matchup for us. Facing them at home coming off a loss is a real uphill battle.

 

[auror]

Both are even stronger to the hole than Gillespie. Crazy tough situation because or offensive output will die without Cole in the lineup. Maybe play some zone and change things up?

Not sure going zone against a team that takes half its shots from 3 with 4 guys above 37% in their 6 man rotation is a good idea.

 

[Orc]

We may have a chance after all.

Hope he alright though