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He looks terrible when he tries to force it.
Scouting UConn-Illinois
- Thread starter Karmacop
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Does anyone know what Illinois record is with Shannon in the lineup vs. when he sat out for a period of the season? He is their best offensive player and it would be interesting to compare their metrics in games he played vs. not played. I assume the metrics would look improved and likely a more accurate reflection of the team we will face on Sat. Not sure if the stats gurus can put that together...Thanks
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If one thing has dissapointed me about this year it’s been the lack of development in that part of his game.
Sometimes he comes across soft as a finisher. Could dunk more in my opinion. But his touch also leaves something left to be desired. Does not arc the ball enough. Feel like he rarely gets rolls because of that
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He doesn’t have to force it.
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I imagine with castle/clingan on the court UConn’s defensive metrics are the best in the country. We fell outside the top 40 when clingan was out. We are #6 I believe
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Jay-Will said he thinks Illinois is the team most likely to beat us of all the teams left...He didn't say they would, just they have the best chance of the remaining teams. I might have to agree with him...what say you?
Either way, we are Dooomed
Either way, we are Dooomed
They have size and convert at a high rate. Its certainly possible but not likely.
Last edited:
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Here's my scout:
2nd in offensive efficiency
84th in defensive efficiency
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Marcus Domask 6’6 215 grad transfer from Southern Illinois
Ty Rodgers 6’6 200 sophomore
Terrence Shannon 6’6 225 fifth-year
Quincy Guerrier 6’8 220 fifth-year
Coleman Hawkins 6’10 225 senior
KEY INJURIES - none
FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 28.4% minutes (237th in nation)
Dain Dainja 6’9 270 junior
Luke Goode 6’7 210 junior
Justin Harmon 6’4 180 senior transfer from Utah Valley
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn 6’1 165 freshman
Here we go.
Illinois and UConn: two of the hottest teams in college basketball. We have yet to see a team with size, star power, poise, synergy and experience as Illinois.
Winners of 10 of their last 11 games, Illinois is amidst a seven-game winning streak and Terrence Shannon has scored 25+ points in each of those games. Their only loss in eleven games? Against Purdue.
Obviously, Shannon is the star. He’s the best all-around scorer and he’s able to do it with efficiency (10th most efficient offensive player, according to KenPom). He’s the team’s most prolific outside shooter; their best bucket-attacker and has the IQ to know when to dish.
Paired with Shannon is SIU transfer Marcus Domask, a 6’6 215 do-it-all offensive weapon who has taken over the de facto point guard role from presumed preseason point guard Ty Rodgers, who is a strong, physical guard who can post-up and bully the ball inside, but has literally not even attempted a three this season.
Both Shannon and Rodgers are capable, but not spectacular defenders while Domask is clearly the worst defensive player in the lineup.
The frontcourt hands-down has the team’s best defenders. Coleman Hawkins is the team’s most versatile player and he kinda reminds me of a taller version of Gonzaga’s Anton Watson – a highly switchable defender who can score from anywhere. His one weakness is rebounding on both ends. At 6’10, Hawkins starts at the 5, but his shooting allows him to play quite a few rotations alongside backup big Dain Dainja, a 6’9 270 mound of rebound who averaged 13.5 rebounds per 40 minutes played. He boasts a whopping 7’7 wingspan.
Starting at the 4 is former Syracuse and Oregon forward Quincy Guerrier, an efficient three-and-D power forward who is a strong rebounder on both ends and can defend anywhere between the 3 and the 5. Backing him up is 6’7 210 shooter Luke Goode, who does little aside from shoot threes. He’s an even worse defender than Domask, so Illinois’ worst defensive lineup includes both on the floor (which happens about 50% of the minutes during the tournament), especially when Goode is playing the 4, which takes away a frontcourt piece since Dainja/Hawkins/Guerrier are Illinois’ best defenders.
Another note: since neither shoot from the perimeter, it is incredibly rare that Ty Rodgers and Dainja share the floor, meaning that Underwood understandably plays as many lineups as he can with 4 or 5 shooters. The five shooter lineups (Domask/Harmon/Shannon/Goode/Hawkins) also make up Illinois weakest defensive squads. Karaban can cook with Goode at the 4. Speaking of Harmon, he’s only scored a total of four points across the last eight games, but he was a 14 point-per-game scorer at Utah Valley last season, so he can get his too.
For UConn, there are a lot of ways to attack Illinois on defense. I see equal value in Castle guarding Domask (the proverbial straw that stirs the drink) and Shannon (their best scorer). Personally, I’d prefer Castle on Shannon since he is dangerous from everywhere and Newton on Domask since he does most of his magic inside the arc, but that’s just me, Illinois has big guards and so does UConn, so there’s mix and match potential no matter how you slice it.
On offense, I can see the mid-range shot providing a lot of opportunities for our non-bigs: the length of Illinois makes it hard for teams to get off three-point shots while Dainja is a strong basket-anchor. Personally, I Dainja getting lots of run tomorrow since he’s got the physicality and length to defend Clingan while Hawkins would be better suited guarding Karaban (aka Clingan would eat Hawkins’ lunch). Also, I love the opportunity for both Newton and Castle to use their penetrating ability to generate fouls, especially from Hawkins.
Illinois (29-8)
#10 in KenPom
11th in D1 experience
136th in minutes continuity (44.5%)
8th tallest team in D1
Big Ten Champs
#10 in KenPom
11th in D1 experience
136th in minutes continuity (44.5%)
8th tallest team in D1
Big Ten Champs
2nd in offensive efficiency
- 17th in offensive rebounding rate
- 21st w/ a 55.3 2P%
- 56th in turnover prevention
- 63rd in FT rate; 108th w/ a 73.6 FT%
- 114th w/ a 35.1 3P%; 142nd in 3PA/FGA (38.7%)
- 169th in average possession length
- 280th in A/FGM (45.9%)
84th in defensive efficiency
- 7th in 3PA/FGA prevention (28.3%); 34.5 opp 3P% (227th)
- 26th in A/FGM prevention (43.3%)
- 28th in opp 2P% (46.8%)
- 34th in FT rate prevention (don’t foul a lot too)
- 56th in defensive tempo rate (17 seconds/possession)
- 64th in defensive rebounding rate
- 360th in turnover rate
Big Ten Stats
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Marcus Domask 6’6 215 grad transfer from Southern Illinois
- Least efficient defensive starter
Ty Rodgers 6’6 200 sophomore
Terrence Shannon 6’6 225 fifth-year
Quincy Guerrier 6’8 220 fifth-year
- Third most efficient defender
Coleman Hawkins 6’10 225 senior
- Second most efficient defender
KEY INJURIES - none
FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 28.4% minutes (237th in nation)
Dain Dainja 6’9 270 junior
- Most efficient defender
Luke Goode 6’7 210 junior
- Least efficient defensive bench piece
Justin Harmon 6’4 180 senior transfer from Utah Valley
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn 6’1 165 freshman
Here we go.
Illinois and UConn: two of the hottest teams in college basketball. We have yet to see a team with size, star power, poise, synergy and experience as Illinois.
Winners of 10 of their last 11 games, Illinois is amidst a seven-game winning streak and Terrence Shannon has scored 25+ points in each of those games. Their only loss in eleven games? Against Purdue.
Obviously, Shannon is the star. He’s the best all-around scorer and he’s able to do it with efficiency (10th most efficient offensive player, according to KenPom). He’s the team’s most prolific outside shooter; their best bucket-attacker and has the IQ to know when to dish.
Paired with Shannon is SIU transfer Marcus Domask, a 6’6 215 do-it-all offensive weapon who has taken over the de facto point guard role from presumed preseason point guard Ty Rodgers, who is a strong, physical guard who can post-up and bully the ball inside, but has literally not even attempted a three this season.
Both Shannon and Rodgers are capable, but not spectacular defenders while Domask is clearly the worst defensive player in the lineup.
The frontcourt hands-down has the team’s best defenders. Coleman Hawkins is the team’s most versatile player and he kinda reminds me of a taller version of Gonzaga’s Anton Watson – a highly switchable defender who can score from anywhere. His one weakness is rebounding on both ends. At 6’10, Hawkins starts at the 5, but his shooting allows him to play quite a few rotations alongside backup big Dain Dainja, a 6’9 270 mound of rebound who averaged 13.5 rebounds per 40 minutes played. He boasts a whopping 7’7 wingspan.
Starting at the 4 is former Syracuse and Oregon forward Quincy Guerrier, an efficient three-and-D power forward who is a strong rebounder on both ends and can defend anywhere between the 3 and the 5. Backing him up is 6’7 210 shooter Luke Goode, who does little aside from shoot threes. He’s an even worse defender than Domask, so Illinois’ worst defensive lineup includes both on the floor (which happens about 50% of the minutes during the tournament), especially when Goode is playing the 4, which takes away a frontcourt piece since Dainja/Hawkins/Guerrier are Illinois’ best defenders.
Another note: since neither shoot from the perimeter, it is incredibly rare that Ty Rodgers and Dainja share the floor, meaning that Underwood understandably plays as many lineups as he can with 4 or 5 shooters. The five shooter lineups (Domask/Harmon/Shannon/Goode/Hawkins) also make up Illinois weakest defensive squads. Karaban can cook with Goode at the 4. Speaking of Harmon, he’s only scored a total of four points across the last eight games, but he was a 14 point-per-game scorer at Utah Valley last season, so he can get his too.
For UConn, there are a lot of ways to attack Illinois on defense. I see equal value in Castle guarding Domask (the proverbial straw that stirs the drink) and Shannon (their best scorer). Personally, I’d prefer Castle on Shannon since he is dangerous from everywhere and Newton on Domask since he does most of his magic inside the arc, but that’s just me, Illinois has big guards and so does UConn, so there’s mix and match potential no matter how you slice it.
On offense, I can see the mid-range shot providing a lot of opportunities for our non-bigs: the length of Illinois makes it hard for teams to get off three-point shots while Dainja is a strong basket-anchor. Personally, I Dainja getting lots of run tomorrow since he’s got the physicality and length to defend Clingan while Hawkins would be better suited guarding Karaban (aka Clingan would eat Hawkins’ lunch). Also, I love the opportunity for both Newton and Castle to use their penetrating ability to generate fouls, especially from Hawkins.
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He’s simply a moron if he thinks that.
mets1090
Probably returning some video tapes...
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They were 9th in Kenpom going into the first game he missed and 10th when he got back. They went 4-2 in those 6 games and almost beat Purdue on the road without him.
The morning of the first game he missed, they were 21st in offense and 14th in defense. The morning of the game he returned, they were ranked 8th in offense and 28th in defense. Currently they are number 2 in offense and 84 in defense, which probably speaks to a complete focus on offense more than anything I guess. They basically flat out did not guard anyone in conference play despite having solid defensive numbers out of conference.
I think Evan Miya's stats would have the direct answer you are looking for, but I don't sub there. I can tell you that Kenpom's POY metric is essentially based on how much better a team is when a player is on the court combined with % of minutes played and Shannon is ranked 10th in that (Newton is 2nd, and Edey is light years ahead in 1st for reference). I believe this POY metric also skews pretty heavily towards offense only, but I am not positive on that.
CTBasketball
Former Owner of the Pizza Thread
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If anyone is going panty raiding it’s going to Terrence Shannon Jr.
.-.
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Noted at end of several tight games refs called fouls on drives where defender absolutely didn't foul or dribbler jumped way into defender who went up. This type of calls could help Illinois if game is close at end or they are trying a comeback and keep feeding it to their star.
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Top notch stuff as always. My keys:
- Avoid foul trouble: seems obvious but Shannon can draw fouls like no one we’ve seen this year. Going to be huge to manage foul trouble from Castle/Clingan especially. Can’t have Clingan picking up dumb ones on offensive rebounds like he did yesterday. If both stay out of foul trouble, I just don’t think Shannon will be able to go off and get his efficient 25+ and I don’t think there’s a realistic path for Illinois to win if he doesn’t absolutely fill it up.
- Create foul trouble: Shannon can be out of control on offense and both he and Hawkins can get very lackadaisical on defense. Hawkins is going to give up a ton of size and strength to Clingan on D and that combined with our guards taking it into his chest on drives could put one or both of them on the bench. The benefit to Shannon being on the bench is obvious, but if Hawkins has to sit, I like our matchups on D way better with Dainja camped in the paint and not able to draw Clingan away from the basket.
- Keep Illinois out of transition: this is where Shannon is by far the most dangerous. Illinois was clearly bothered at times by Iowa State slowing down the pace. If we impose our pace and take care of the ball, that cuts off a lot of what Illinois wants to do.
- Constant movement: Illinois is not a good defensive team. ISU is a bad offensive team and was getting whatever they wanted in the second half against Illinois. Illinois loses focus on defense, doesn’t have particularly impressive rim protection, and is just generally not disciplined on the defensive side of the ball. I truly don’t know how you prep those players to read and react to UConn’s offensive sets. There should be plenty of easy baskets available if UConn executes their game.
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Fixed.
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I think going into the Sweet 16 Illinois was the second most dangerous team we would face beyond the Houston/Purdue winner in the championship game.
That is even more true now with our potential Final Four opponent either Alabama (basically, a worse version of Illinois) or Clemson (a slightly better version of Northwestern).
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Friendly reminder that Illinois is closer in Kenpom to Indiana State than they are to us.
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He is very much that and doesn't think so much as says things that he believes will keep him cashing checks for being on TV.
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Ouch
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Someone on that board said “UConn is due for an off game.” They don’t seem to realize that while we were stomping good teams by 30, we were actually having “off games.”
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We shot 10% from 3 against Northwestern prior to garbage time!
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Yeah, it’s very hard for opposing fans that haven’t watched this UConn team to understand a) how good their B- game is, and b) how hard it is to bring your A game against their defense.
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We have an extremely high floor because we can win in multiple ways and therefore it requires several different things to go wrong for us to be in trouble. For those who deal with gambling and probability, "and" is a 4-letter word.
For example, to beat us you would need:
- A stout defensive performance from a mediocre defensive team
AND
- Us to shoot badly
AND
- The opponent to shoot well (Illinois is capable)
AND/OR
- Clingan in foul trouble so they can get to the rim
.-.
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He also said UNC was the best team in the country the morning before they lost to NC State.
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He tried to force a lot againse ledee but it was by design so they could get him into foul trouble
I don't doubt it but I can't for the life of me think of a cause of action
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I could see it was by design, but they just wouldn't listen to me yelling at the tv telling DC he didn't have to shoot it.
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If your strategy in the elite eight is banking that we are due for an off game, I’m not concerned.
I think that you are right on about Ledee last night. It took a lot of physical work to move Clingan out of the post. Clingan goes out, Johnson comes in. It's an entirely different look. Johnson is easier to move for sure but trying to run the floor with him is an entirely different story. This is a team that has been put together masterfully.
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