Instead of my score prediction I've started recording Sagarin's spread predictor. I'm curious how accurate his numbers are over the length of the season. For tonight's game he has #1 ranked UConn by 49 over #212 BU.
I've been following the Sagarin predictor for years and it's remarkably good. After I saw your post I checked Sagarin to see what his predicted margin of victory is for UConn-BU...44, which by some miracle is exactly the spread I predicted. I guess he must be rubbing off on me after all these years.
By-the-bye this gives me the opportunity to dump on RPI again...the current top ten, in order, for Sagarin, is a very sensible if not perfect
1.Connecticut
2 Baylor
3 Duke
4 Notre Dame
5 Maryland
6 Tennessee
7 Stanford
8 Kentucky
9 Louisville
10 Oklahoma St.
RPI has this ludicrous top ten
1.Tennessee
2 Connecticut
3 Colorado
4 Louisville
5 Baylor
6 St. Johns
7 Ohio State
8 LSU
9. Arizona St
10.Wyoming
Wyoming made it into the top ten by beating Denver and Montana St in two close games. I can't even imagine the formula you'd have to use to have them in 10th spot with a 2-0 record over those two.