Score predictions for Central Florida

[winlots]

91 - 45
Would have been a shut out, but Geno lets everyone play.

SON: Another chuckle on that one....thanks and Happy New Year

 

[winlots]

This week's prognosticator is EDGAR CAYCE. He predicted the founding of the University of Central Florida, and that the school would become the largest in Florida. Today UCF is indeed its state's biggest with an enrollment exceeding 60,000 students. Asked about its women's sports program, Cayce went into a trance, stuck his finger in his left ear, but died before he could answer or remove his finger. However, we know that Cayce thought a school as large as UCF could certainly find 5 women to make up a basketball team. So: expect the Knights to put a quintet on the court for Sunday's game. Rad.

View attachment 18114

HUSKYD: a pregame INTEREST BALL.....thanks and Happy New Year

 

[winlots]

88-40

The second half will be a good 'n' as the BadAss Huskies again match Wooden.

[inspired by alex]

GUS: another chuckle and a pregame BARD BALL.....a first on that.......plus a thanks and Happy New Year

 

[winlots]

89-51 UConn. Keeping with the theme that our best players seem to rotate, I will predict that Naphessa takes over the game 26 pts, 12 rebounds 5 blocks and Butler has a break out game. 16 pts and 10 rebounds (5 offensive). I think Geno will curb KLS and Gabby's minutes a little (maybe 20 each) since they have really been physically beat up imho. Kia has an average game for her (12 pts 4 assists and 3 steals) Soniya gives her best performance 15 pts, 7 assists and 1 TO. Crystal Dangerfield, Molly and Kyla get into the act but nothing spectacular.

By the way, wouldn't it be cool if all the BY final score predictions for all games this season were stored and evaluated and a contest for the overall best predictor would be tracked (with a contest winner).

EEB: wow....great specifics.....enuf for a first: a pregame OUT ON A LIMB BALL.....hoping it works for ya. By the way, I did try to come up with the overall stats you suggest here.....called on folks to weigh in with the wins thus far, but only got a few responses from our too-modest crew. Maybe you can elicit more here? Thanks and Happy New Year --- gotta go now with company on the way........Happy New Year to all

 

[Gmoney]

Uconn 103 - 55

 

[HopJim]

A modest 24-point win

Probably close. All depends on who is still sick.

 

[DaddyChoc]

91-61

 

[rvwsleep]

83-47

Oh so close. Good pick.

 

[DaddyChoc]

84 - 43 UConn with lots of time for bench - nobody hitting 30 minutes

 

[rvwsleep]

?????
How is that possible ?
While a good entry, not nearly as close as "SueBird". Pull out the calculator.

 

[DaddyChoc]

?????
How is that possible ?
While a good entry, not nearly as close as "SueBird". Pull out the calculator.

yeah I understand your margin but... I was looking at nailing the UConn score, it gets no better than that!

 

[rvwsleep]

yeah I understand your margin but... I was looking at nailing the UConn score, it gets no better than that!

I understand this is not a huge deal but shouldn't there be some standard to base the winner on ?
And shouldn't that standard be the same week to week ?
I disagreed with the initial criteria of point differential to determine the winner but I acquiesced. Now, it seems as though you only have to pick UConn's score correctly to win.
How about this ? Next game we all get to choose a winner based on whatever criteria we choose !! That will really liven up the thread.

 

[DaddyChoc]

I understand this is not a huge deal but shouldn't there be some standard to base the winner on ?
And shouldn't that standard be the same week to week ?
I disagreed with the initial criteria of point differential to determine the winner but I acquiesced. Now, it seems as though you only have to pick UConn's score correctly to win.
How about this ? Next game we all get to choose a winner based on whatever criteria we choose !! That will really liven up the thread.

That's what I do, I didn't creat this thread... the we have a winner pic is MY thang based on MY opinion. I actually led the predictions about 5 yrs ago but got lazy so it kind of went away but Winlots has rejuvenated it but I'm stuck with my own rules. The exact UConn score on a UConn board gotta account for something. I don't like the MOV style cause you could say 36-0 and win if the score is actually 84-48

 

[rvwsleep]

83-47

While evidently not the winner, I wanted to recognize the MOST ACCURATE entry. Well done.

 

[NewCorn]

I suggest (I thought someone else did earlier) that the three criteria be these:
First - margin -2 pt
second - UConn score 2 pts
Third - opponent's score 1 pts
This criteria allows for the breaking of ties and avoids the absurdity of someone missing the margin by twenty, but winning by nailing the UConn score. This also avoids the 36-0 problem cited above.

 

[eebmg]

I suggest (I thought someone else did earlier) that the three criteria be these:
First - margin
second - UConn score
Third - opponent's score
This criteria allows for the breaking of ties and avoids the absurdity of someone missing the margin by twenty, but winning by nailing the UConn score. This also avoids the 36-0 problem cited above.

If you want an automated unbiased approach, simply use the rules from statistics

Define fractional error for each team as fe=[abs (score_guess - score)] / score
where abs stands for absolute value. i.e abs(-6) = 6.

Then define your score S as S=(1-fe) so a perfect guess score is S= 1

Then add the score of both teams guesses S_total=S_conn+S_opponent

A perfect score is 2 while errors in the guess (normalized by the true score) reduce the score in a controlled way.

In addition, this scoring mechanism is additive so one could imagine keeping a cumulative score over the season.

 

[EricLA]

Is it really that important to "crown" a winner? We are all just guessing at the score. I think lots of people were close with UCONN in the mid to high 80's and UCF in the mid 40's. I think people are realizing that there is a rather substantial drop off when UCONN plays with 3 or 4 of the reserves and only 1 or 2 starters (see the 4th quarter). But I also think it's clear that as much as this team has "passed" every test, they are not going to dominate for 30+ minutes every game.

They are terrific and have probably exceeded literally everyone's expectations, but they are not winning by being dominating in every aspect (rebounding for example). Certainly a different experience for the fans, and fun for those who cherish closer games (by the way, I am NOT one of these people- I love seeing us crush EVERYONE)...

 

[eebmg]

Is it really that important to "crown" a winner? We are all just guessing at the score. I think lots of people were close with UCONN in the mid to high 80's and UCF in the mid 40's. I think people are realizing that there is a rather substantial drop off when UCONN plays with 3 or 4 of the reserves and only 1 or 2 starters (see the 4th quarter). But I also think it's clear that as much as this team has "passed" every test, they are not going to dominate for 30+ minutes every game.

They are terrific and have probably exceeded literally everyone's expectations, but they are not winning by being dominating in every aspect (rebounding for example). Certainly a different experience for the fans, and fun for those who cherish closer games (by the way, I am NOT one of these people- I love seeing us crush EVERYONE)...

I am not suggesting there is much skill in any guess. But if we have this competition, its fun to keep score.

 

[NewCorn]

If you want an automated unbiased approach, simply use the rules from statistics

Define fractional error for each team as fe=[abs (score_guess - score)] / score
where abs stands for absolute value. i.e abs(-6) = 6.

Then define your score S as S=(1-fe) so a perfect guess score is S= 1

Then add the score of both teams guesses S_total=S_conn+S_opponent

A perfect score is 2 while errors in the guess (normalized by the true score) reduce the score in a controlled way.

In addition, this scoring mechanism is additive so one could imagine keeping a cumulative score over the season.

Good. This clearly works well and establishes with precision the relative accuracy of each poster's guess. Perhaps this is what would work best here.
I do think, however, that for those of us who were looking out the window at that girl walking by during the math lecture, the method I mentioned earlier is easier to follow. And perhaps it accomplishes much the same thing when my edit is included to give 2pts for margin, 2pts for UConn score, and 1pt for the opponent's score.

 

[Suebird10fan]

While evidently not the winner, I wanted to recognize the MOST ACCURATE entry. Well done.

Thanks!

 

[DaddyChoc]

While evidently not the winner, I wanted to recognize the MOST ACCURATE entry. Well done.

that's your winner... and no one will disagree it

 

[eebmg]

Good. This clearly works well and establishes with precision the relative accuracy of each poster's guess. Perhaps this is what would work best here.
I do think, however, that for those of us who were looking out the window at that girl walking by during the math lecture, the method I mentioned earlier is easier to follow. And perhaps it accomplishes much the same thing when my edit is included to give 2pts for margin, 2pts for UConn score, and 1pt for the opponent's score.

I guess I never avoided math lectures and statistics is a good friend of mine. I imagine my approach is clear enough for anyone who wants to ponder it, it is easy to implement on an excel sheet for example etc. Of course, not my decision

I would like to understand your approach. Are you saying, out of all entries, the person with best margin gets 2 pts,
the person closest to the UConn score gets 2 pts and the closest to the opponents score gets one?

If so, cant person A get 2 pts for best margin, person B get 2 points for closest UConn score and Person C get the 1 pt for
closest opponent score so we have a tie?

 

[Tonyc]

Uconn 88 EC 47

 

[NewCorn]

I would like to understand your approach. Are you saying, out of all entries, the person with best margin gets 2 pts,
the person closest to the UConn score gets 2 pts and the closest to the opponents score gets one?

If so, cant person A get 2 pts for best margin, person B get 2 points for closest UConn score and Person C get the 1 pt for
closest opponent score so we have a tie?

I need to explain further. The closest to the margin is the winner. The UConn score is the first tie-breaker. The opponent score is the second tie-breaker. But as I have indicated, your method is excellent. I'm only explaining my idea, not pushing it.

 

[rvwsleep]

that's your winner... and no one will disagree it

I didn't pick any winners. SueBird had, objectively, the closest score.