Score Prediction Thread - MISS STATE | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Score Prediction Thread - MISS STATE

This game won't be a piranha on a roast but it will be at least catfish on a chicken dish as miss-a-chippie state closes the gap between them and Uconn by two thirds to only lose by 20,82-62.
 
We have faced bigs before and prevaled. We have faced quick guards before and have won convincingly.

The margin won't be 60 points but it will be double figures:

UConn 88 Mississippi State 65. Lou finds her stroke and Gabby & Pheesa control the paint.
 
UCONN 92 - 57 They keep saying they are not the same team ... but they are. A year older and wiser to be sure but unlike at UCONN, nothing magic happens in one year.
 
ericsandiego said:
So without looking at any one else's predictions...

Mississippi State has been on fire in the NCAA's scoring in bunches - this after a fairly offensively-challenged season. It seems they found the hoop - and just in time to take out Baylor.

So for starters, Morgan William will NOT score 40 points against UCONN. That that away before OT and that puts them at about 40 against Baylor. Assume that she would score about 10-15 points and another 10 or so by other players since William was not scoring. That puts them at about 65 or maybe 70 vs. Baylor.

Personally I think UCONN's defense is better, or at least better able to make adjustments. I think Mississippi State will have a hard time scoring over 70 against UCONN, and probably will be in the 60-65 range. UCONN, on the other hand, has shown they can score a bunch of ways against a bunch of defenses. UCONN's problem will be inside with 6'7" McCowan. If Pheesa and Gabby can't stop her, Geno may be forced to use Natalie, who was very competent on defense against Baylor's bigs.

UCONN 85
Miss State 65
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I am continuously amazed at how "small" other teams "bigs" play against our guys. In order to score the ball you have to have it first.
 
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HoopsHoppy said:
You tout defense as operative in this final four but, if memory serves, you have an opponent scoring more points than any prediction to date - hmmm! Are you saying those guard drives will overpower our UConn guarding? Just wondering
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My prediction is less of a prediction and more of a function of a mathematical process. The final score was the result of a sigma function calculation where P= expected passes in the game, H= total height of the team ( without transfers), R squared is the expected time of possession for UConn, A is the expected attendance and finally S equals the number of times Uconn players have to squint to prevent looking at that ugly court.

But I will adjust my prediction to reflect your comments.

UConn 125
Mississippi State 18
 
UCONN 80+ Geno let's the starters back off in the 4th qtr to save energy, MS 50-70 depending on making shots.
 
HardHatGuy#2 said:
86-60. William will be shut down by Nurse, which means that Viviens will have to create her own shot. That makes her drop back into her old habits, and the MissSt offense stalls. In the meantime 2016 flashbacks run amok, someone throws a roast on the court, and the Huskies beat the Bulldogs.

Honestly, I can't WAIT to see Danger guarding William. Danger is 5'5"; let's see how much shorter William is.
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I hope so too but not sure how much we'll be seeing Crystal in the game.

Crystal's getting fewer minutes as we get further along the tournament. I don't know if the decrease is due to scheme or Geno's trust. She's not playing her best overall game (although she had some very nice "highlight film" pass/assists) in the tournament.

Albany - 29 min
Syracuse - 23 min
UCLA - 17 min
Oregon - 13 min
 
Danger has flashing plays, but also makes bad decision resulting to TOs from time to time. Sometimes she tries too hard and makes unwise decision to go against bigs in the paint. And sometimes uconn also has her in the paint when a bad switch happens resulting in her guarding someone who is a foot taller. When a game is tight, this could be crucial.
Coach said:
I hope so too but not sure how much we'll be seeing Crystal in the game.

Crystal's getting fewer minutes as we get further along the tournament. I don't know if the decrease is due to scheme or Geno's trust. She's not playing her best overall game (although she had some very nice "highlight film" pass/assists) in the tournament.

Albany - 29 min
Syracuse - 23 min
UCLA - 17 min
Oregon - 13 min
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For what it's worth.............................you draw your own conclusion.

I just saw a segment on ESPN's SportsCenter with Cari Champion about 45 minutes ago. She was Speaking with Doris Burke. When asked how she thought UConn would do against Mississippi State, Burke said that MSST had virtually no chance of beating UConn. She then proceeded to explain her answer. I'm not going to go into detail what her reasons were. Suffice it to say, she likes UConn to advance to the championship game on Sunday.

IMO, Burke is very knowledgeable about all things WCBB. Like her or not, she knows what she's talking about. College and professional basketball is her business. If thinks UConn in a shoe in Friday, that's good enough for me. I'm just a fan. I'll readily admit she knows more about WCBB, this tournament and the teams involved than I do. Basically she said while MSST has improved, they're still not in UConn's class yet. I understand there are folks here that don't care for Burke. I like her, and I respect her opinion.
 
Carnac said:
For what it's worth.........you draw your own conclusion.

I just saw a segment on ESPN's SportsCenter with Cari Champion about 45 minutes ago. She was Speaking with Doris Burke. When asked how she thought UConn would do against Mississippi State, Burke said that MSST had virtually no chance of beating UConn. She then proceeded to explain her answer. I'm not going to go into detail what her reasons were. Suffice it to say, she likes UConn to advance to the championship game on Sunday.

IMO, Burke is very knowledgeable about all things WCBB. Like her or not, she knows what she's talking about. College and professional basketball is her business. If thinks UConn in a shoe in Friday, that's good enough for me. I'm just a fan. I'll readily admit she knows more about WCBB, this tournament and the teams involved than I do. Basically she said while MSST has improved, they're still not in UConn's class yet. I understand there are folks here that don't care for Burke. I like her, and I respect her opinion.
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Agree that Burke knows basketball and she is a great supporter of WBB in general, and UConn in particular. I just wish she wouldn't spend as much time talking all over the game while it's being played. If Doris could be more concise with her color commentary during the games she would be a better broadcaster IMO.
 
oldude said:
Agree that Burke knows basketball and she is a great supporter of WBB in general, and UConn in particular. I just wish she wouldn't spend as much time talking all over the game while it's being played. If Doris could be more concise with her color commentary during the games she would be a better broadcaster IMO.
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LOL, sometimes Burke becomes a prisoner of the moment, and tends to become intent on sharing her opinions and observations with the viewers that she tends to over do it some times. I've always found her observations interesting and insightful. Yeah, sometimes she should talk a little less. Sometimes less is more.

That aside, Burke's observations this morning made me feel a lot better about Friday's game. I'm just like everyone else here in the yard. While I'm confident, I'm also cautious, but not too over confident. I take the same approach to these last two games that Geno does, and for the same reasons.

Burke is whole lot closer to WCBB, and the 4 remaining programs that we are. If she thinks MSST has no chance, that makes me feel not good, but great!!!!! I want to see our girls win another one Sunday.....period!!!!!
 
This is so Maalox for me... This last week of the tourney is when I feed the karma kracken, and look the worst outcome in the face... or something. It worked last year anyway...

UConn 78
The Roast 80


Mov -2
 
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I had the experience of watching MSU's losses. Maybe Vic has a magic key so they can turn their effort and focus on and off. Maybe they can stay with UConn mentally and physically for four quarters.

In step with Myers though, MSU 89 - UConn 45
 
The moment will be too big for Miss State - UCONN too efficient UCONN 77 Miss St 49
 
hussybulldog said:
Danger has flashing plays, but also makes bad decision resulting to TOs from time to time. Sometimes she tries too hard and makes unwise decision to go against bigs in the paint. And sometimes uconn also has her in the paint when a bad switch happens resulting in her guarding someone who is a foot taller. When a game is tight, this could be crucial.
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This sounds about right.

Frankly, watching Dangerfield, my impression is: she makes some really nice plays on her own (even when she sets up teammates), but she really doesn't do much within the flow of the offense. She's not a liability, but she doesn't keep the machine operating the way you want out of your PG.

She'll learn, but she's not there this year.
 
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Adesmar123 said:
My prediction is less of a prediction and more of a function of a mathematical process. The final score was the result of a sigma function calculation where P= expected passes in the game, H= total height of the team ( without transfers), R squared is the expected time of possession for UConn, A is the expected attendance and finally S equals the number of times Uconn players have to squint to prevent looking at that ugly court.

But I will adjust my prediction to reflect your comments.

UConn 125
Mississippi State 18
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No adjustments needed - I never realized the science and high level mathematics you've been using all year to arrive at your astute constant selections of the winning team. I bow to your wisdom
 
oldude said:
Agree that Burke knows basketball and she is a great supporter of WBB in general, and UConn in particular. I just wish she wouldn't spend as much time talking all over the game while it's being played. If Doris could be more concise with her color commentary during the games she would be a better broadcaster IMO.
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Totally agree with the "Talking over" problem. It's not just Doris either,; I think every ESPN team does it. Happens only very occasionally with SNY. I want to know who made the shot, who commited the foul, why play was stopped, etc., etc. The other stuff is nice but is not a part of the game. Let them talk during time-outs.
 
I hope the consensus view prevails but I am far far less confident than everybody else. I've watched Miss State several times and along with Baylor I've felt they were the 2 teams that could beat us. They have quick guards, size, depth and scoring at center, and a capable wing. Our 'A' game beats their 'A' game, and they don't always play their best, especially when Vivians can be off, but I think we are at risk if we play less than our 'A' game. These big margins of victory occur when we can get a transition game going with turnovers, when we hit threes, when we collect a large number of offensive rebounds, and when we keep our starting 5 on the court. If we are not lethal from 3, they can back off and present real challenges for us to score down low and rebound. Their quickness in the backcourt and size in the frontcourt are a recipe for foul trouble on Collier and Gabby. Either of those players on the bench for extended time in the first half means the game is 10 points closer. I think the game is ours to win, but only based on solid 3 point shooting that forces the paint to stay open. I'll also be impressed if we can get any running game going off of turnovers since they only had 1 first half turnover vs Baylor. Rather than going through the motions to mow down another pretender, I will be super impressed if we handle this team as easily as the boneyard expects. I could easily see both teams in the 60 to 70 point range. I am much more confident vs South Carolina or Stanford.
 
I am going all in, 96 to 63. Lou with a double double 25 pats and ten boards!
 
Miss St. cannot score enough points to beat UCONN! They have 3 players that can score consistant, William, Vivians, and 6'7" McCowan inside! UCONN has 7 girls that can score from 5 to 10 to 35 points!Williams, Napheesa, Katie Lou, and Nurse can go off and each can score 35 points in a game, while Crystal Dangerfield, Saniya, and Butler can score in the 5 to 10 point range! Even if Miss St's defense is really good how do they stop all 7 players from scoring?
Yes anything is possible but not probable in this case!
 
UConn wins but it is a lot closer than most think.

UConn 73
Mississippi State 61
 
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